Tropics

By: Skyepony , 2:06 PM GMT on July 01, 2011

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Tropics~
Atlantic
03L CINDY



02L BRET






East Pacific
04E DORA



Central Pacific

West Pacific
08W MA-ON




Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere



A site to check out storms.
A place to check for invests
MIT storm forecast & intensity models
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Garden~

When to plant what & how in Florida, South Carolina, Alabama.

July gardeners in Florida are busy harvesting, collecting seeds, weeding, deadheading flowers, pulling the dead or done & preparing for a big planting next month.

North FL southern peas (cow, black eyed), okra, eggplant, peppers & watermelon.

In Central FL okra, southern peas.

South FL southern peas.

From the moon calender of the Farmer's Almanac

July 2011
19th-20th Good Days For Planting Beets, Carrots, Radishes, Salsify, Turnips, Peanuts, And Other Root Crops. Also Good For Planting Melons, Cucumbers, Pumpkins, And Other Vine Crops. Set Strawberry Plants. Good Days For Transplanting.
21st-23rd A Barren Period.
24th-25th Root Crops That Can Be Planted Now Will Yield Well. Good Days For Transplanting.
26th-27th Poor Days For Planting, Seeds Tend To Rot In The Ground.
28th-29th Most Fruitful Days For Planting Root Crops. Excellent For Sowing Seedbeds And Flower Gardens. Good Days For Transplanting.
30th-31st A Most Barren Period. Kill Plant Pests And Do General Farm Work.
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Local Weather~
Mon chance of storms. Tue-fri a little drier but overall rain continues.




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131. whitewabit (Mod)
7:48 PM GMT on July 22, 2011
Skye ... its easy to put up frozen corn ...

bring pan of water up to boiling... blanch corn for 4 minutes ... put in ice bath for 8 minutes to cool quickly ... cut corn off cobs and put in needed amount for family serving in freezer bags ... besure to mark date on bag and put in freezer to enjoy all year !!!

We put up 6 dozen ears...

93º here so far this afternoon...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 364 Comments: 31616
130. Skyepony
6:44 AM GMT on July 22, 2011
I posted a series of Atlantis pics after she landed. Surreal, sad day & The Astronaut Band played a Jamiroquai cover.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 179 Comments: 38327
129. Skyepony
5:23 PM GMT on July 21, 2011
Yeah, we were outside. Saw the ISS flyby, Ba-Boom wasn't long after. I think the shuttle was too low & west of me for the morning sun shooting over the curvature of the earth to light up the shuttle for us to see.

Hard to see this chapter close..but the ISS is complete. This gap in projects is tearing apart our community. Hope the commercial lot gets a people shuttle launching soon.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 179 Comments: 38327
128. Ylee
4:39 PM GMT on July 21, 2011
Skye, did you hear any booms this morning?
Member Since: February 3, 2011 Posts: 95 Comments: 15822
127. Skyepony
3:19 AM GMT on July 21, 2011
Looking at Dora best preforming models the 3 EGR models did very well, at 72hrs out error was between 13 & 24nm. EGRI is on top with an impressive 14nm error for yesterday & scored the 13nm at 72hrs out. Honorable mentions here are BAMM, LGEM & HWRF.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 179 Comments: 38327
126. Skyepony
2:20 AM GMT on July 21, 2011
We have Cindy now. Looks like it's gonna be one of those active seasons..


In that article it said there was a Clydesdale that somehow drown in a pond it got into while his owner was trail riding him earlier this week. This sounded bazaar to me. I've never heard of horses drowning in ponds before. They swim good. Quicksand or like a dried looking shit pit behind a water treatment plant is a different story. I've seen some stuff with horses..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 179 Comments: 38327
125. aquak9
9:17 PM GMT on July 20, 2011
hi skye
amazing story on the horse rescue. I gotta wonder about the boys, too. What an expense. I hope they explain to the boys what an expense it was. BUT look how dirty the water was! the boys were swimming in it? Nice to know they had special training for these sort of situations. I had no idea things like that ever happened.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 169 Comments: 26126
124. LakeWorthFinn
8:15 PM GMT on July 20, 2011
Hi :)
Wow on the horse rescue!
Bogon - Reporting: no mosquitos in South East Palm Beach County, at least in Lake Worth.
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7377
123. Skyepony
8:10 PM GMT on July 20, 2011
99L is now TD #3..

Wabit~ I've ridden behind that house & thought I'd put a real fence around the pool. There's several in this area like me that use our lawn as our pasture. It's hot..some horses seek out a swim in this heat.. 1/2 wunder if the kids didn't let him in.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 179 Comments: 38327
122. whitewabit (Mod)
8:00 PM GMT on July 20, 2011
skye ... how did the horse get into the screened in pool??? never mind read the article...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 364 Comments: 31616
121. Skyepony
7:57 PM GMT on July 20, 2011
LowerCAl~ Thanks..I'll be listening for the ba-boom..


Happenings in the hood.. Brevard firefighters rescue horse stuck in Melbourne pool. I know people in these photos..

Once again..some of our finest:)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 179 Comments: 38327
120. LowerCal
5:40 PM GMT on July 20, 2011
Final Shuttle landing scheduled for early tomorrow.

First Landing Opportunity at 5:56am EDT




Second Landing Opportunity at 7:32am EDT




Source: NASA - STS-135 Landing Ground Tracks
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9196
119. Skyepony
3:50 AM GMT on July 20, 2011
Evening everyone~ Straightened out the floaters & models. 99L is new. It was Bret's baby blob that's NE of Bret. Created when Bret lost part of his midlevel spin to shear a few days ago. Just kinda shows how conducive things are. It's all ocean in front of it, has a stretch of warm ocean to go, so I'll give it 30% chance. I think the next thing we'll be watching is that wave at 30W.

I took out the gulf rgb map & added East CONUS to Spain. Ment to do it a while ago, big picture & appease people in the NE.

Wabit~ That is horrific heat. Hazard map is lit up. Wonder if we'll see a lot of tornadoes when the front comes & clears the heat wave out.

Bogon~ Mosquitoes have been bad. I think less spraying is going on too with the economy.

Hades~ Thanks for updating us on the other basins when I got caught up in recon.

Aqua~ Blood bath describes it, I wear long sleeves & boots at night around here..


Bret's coming back to life a little. Recon has been out there a good bit of the day..here's latest.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 20:19Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 02L in 2011
Storm Name: Bret (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 15
A. Time of Center Fix: 19th day of the month at 20:08:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 3011'N 7538'W (30.1833N 75.6333W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 309 miles (497 km) to the SE (142) from Myrtle Beach, SC, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,429m (4,688ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 47kts (~ 54.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the SE (131) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 215 at 46kts (From the SW at ~ 52.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the SE (131) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 999mb (29.50 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15C (59F) at a pressure alt. of 1,519m (4,984ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20C (68F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 46kts (~ 52.9mph) in the southeast quadrant at 20:04:40Z
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 179 Comments: 38327
118. aquak9
3:49 AM GMT on July 20, 2011
bogon- I'm not skye but I can't answer cause I've been mostly inside. During the day on the weekend? no not really, but at dusk it's a bloodbath.

wab- ya just gotta take it real easy. Like, don't even move, hahaha....no I am not making light of it, it's really scary. Ya'll just aren't prepared for that. Please just be lazy and take care of you and Mrs. Wab.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 169 Comments: 26126
117. whitewabit (Mod)
2:22 AM GMT on July 20, 2011
got up to 103º here at the house with 60% humidity, that makes the heat index to a unbearable 135º...
still 88º here with reports of numerous funnels in the area earlier as a shower passed to the east of us... no touch downs thankfully!!!

officially the airport made it to 98º ...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 364 Comments: 31616
116. whitewabit (Mod)
5:15 PM GMT on July 19, 2011
Heat index up to 120º in some areas up here... we might reach those numbers later this afternoon...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 364 Comments: 31616
115. whitewabit (Mod)
5:13 PM GMT on July 19, 2011
97 dgrees here at the house at noon, heat index somewhere above 105, no relief in sight ... Heat Advisories extend through Saturday night...

Officailly its 93 with a heat index of of 107 at the the airport... with humidity at 61% ...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 364 Comments: 31616
114. Bogon
2:17 PM GMT on July 19, 2011
Heard on NPR that Florida is having a big mosquito season. Are the skeeters after you where you are?
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3728
113. Skyepony
4:27 AM GMT on July 19, 2011
Animated TRMM pass on Bret.

MA-ON


While i'm looking at TRMM data..ESPI has shot up to -0.05.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 179 Comments: 38327
112. Skyepony
12:46 AM GMT on July 19, 2011
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 22:29Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number & Year: 02L in 2011
Storm Name: Bret (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 13
A. Time of Center Fix: 18th day of the month at 22:03:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°21'N 76°54'W (28.35N 76.9W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 229 miles (368 km) to the N (7°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,414m (4,639ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the ESE (113°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 203° at 51kts (From the SSW at ~ 58.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the ESE (112°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 999mb (29.50 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,516m (4,974ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the south
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 60kts (~ 69.0mph) in the northeast quadrant at 20:42:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 22°C (72°F) which was observed 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the ESE (110°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
RADAR DEPICTED TWO MAIN SPIRAL BANDS HEAVIEST ONE IN THE NW TO W SIDE
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 179 Comments: 38327
111. Skyepony
10:26 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
Recon in center again..~28.350N 76.900W...998.6mb..52kts going in on the surface...43 coming out.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 179 Comments: 38327
110. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
10:19 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #58
TYPHOON MA-ON (T1106)
6:00 AM JST July 19 2011
==========================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 21:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Ma-On (950 hPa) located at 31.2N 132.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 11 knots

Dvorak Intensity:

Storm Force Winds
==================
110 NM from the center in east quadrant
60 NM from the center in west quadrant

Gale Force Winds
================
350 NM from the center in east quadrant
240 NM from the center in west quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 33.9N 134.4E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
45 HRS: 33.1N 138.4E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
69 HRS: 32.0N 142.9E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45748
109. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
10:18 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
RSMC Miami National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
TROPICAL CYCLONE DORA (EP042011)
2:00 PM PST July 18 2011
======================================

SUBJECT: DORA Strengthening Well South Of Guatemala and Mexico

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Dora (1004 hPa) located at 10.7N 92.9W or 355 NM south southeast of Salina Cruz, Mexico has sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 12 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 11.9N 97.6W - 70 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 1)
48 HRS: 14.3N 102.8W - 95 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 2)
72 HRS: 17.0N 107.4W - 105 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 2)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45748
108. Skyepony
9:42 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 21:14Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number & Year: 02L in 2011
Storm Name: Bret (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 18th day of the month at 20:47:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°18'N 76°56'W (28.3N 76.9333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 225 miles (362 km) to the N (6°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,410m (4,626ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 49kts (~ 56.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NE (43°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 143° at 60kts (From the SE at ~ 69.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NE (46°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 998mb (29.47 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,517m (4,977ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,536m (5,039ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the south
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 62kts (~ 71.3mph) in the southeast quadrant at 19:39:10Z
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 179 Comments: 38327
107. Skyepony
8:55 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 20:41Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number & Year: 02L in 2011
Storm Name: Bret (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 18th day of the month at 19:29:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°09'N 77°04'W (28.15N 77.0667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 209 miles (337 km) to the ENE (62°) from West Palm Beach, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,406m (4,613ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 60kts (~ 69.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the W (271°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 5° at 53kts (From the N at ~ 61.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the W (269°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 997mb (29.44 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,530m (5,020ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open from the north to the east, S
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 53kts (~ 61.0mph) in the west quadrant at 19:26:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 62kts (~ 71.3mph) in the southeast quadrant at 19:39:10Z
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 179 Comments: 38327
106. Skyepony
7:43 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
Recon found center ~28.1N 77.1W 996mb
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 179 Comments: 38327
105. Skyepony
4:07 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
Kinda interesting the model that has done the best overall with Bret, the GFDN, with an average of 6.7nm error lands this on the border of North & South Carolina.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 179 Comments: 38327
104. Skyepony
1:50 PM GMT on July 18, 2011
Good Morning all~ 94E is now 04E.

Got .15" of sweet tropical rain from Bret so far today..

& Louisclocks wins 1st! for the morning. Congrats man..hope your good fortune follows you through the day..

Bret really tapped that afternoon blowup ya'll had yesterday. Send the moisture north..we'll take it.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 179 Comments: 38327
103. Louisclocks
11:14 AM GMT on July 18, 2011
First.
I like to win a contest.

Im glad the new TS is here . It may dry things out a little in SW Fl.
Member Since: February 22, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 98
102. Skyepony
7:08 AM GMT on July 18, 2011
This is dropping 1mb an hour..

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 07:00Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 02L in 2011
Storm Name: Bret (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 18th day of the month at 6:37:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°07'N 77°48'W (27.1167N 77.8W)
B. Center Fix Location: 142 miles (229 km) between the ENE and E (79°) from West Palm Beach, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,448m (4,751ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 45kts (~ 51.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the NNW (334°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 101° at 46kts (From between the E and ESE at ~ 52.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the N (3°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1001mb (29.56 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,466m (4,810ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,462m (4,797ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 52kts (~ 59.8mph) in the southeast quadrant at 5:16:00Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
Curvature North and East. Heavy rain inbound from NE.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 179 Comments: 38327
101. Skyepony
7:07 AM GMT on July 18, 2011
Yay~anger & persistence pays off..you don't have to pay for this stuff even though the universities have given it to companies to sell back to us.. Ha ha despite it all my model races are back:)


Scaled this back to the last 12hr model error since Bret is so young. So who's in the lead?

GFDN out front with a ~8nm error, slight lead over AEMN & AP01 (~10). AVNO, HWRF & NGP2 chasing with ~14/15. Unfortunately I got nothing on how the BAM models are doing.. NAM is doing better than usual with ~21, rest of the majors are trailing GFDL 33, CMC & NGPS 45.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 179 Comments: 38327
100. Skyepony
5:41 AM GMT on July 18, 2011
Dang temp dif inside & outside..wow..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 179 Comments: 38327
99. Skyepony
5:40 AM GMT on July 18, 2011
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 05:35Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 02L in 2011
Storm Name: Bret (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 18th day of the month at 5:12:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°09'N 77°59'W (27.15N 77.9833W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 132 miles (212 km) to the ENE (77°) from West Palm Beach, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,454m (4,770ft) at 400mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 49kts (~ 56.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the NW (310°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 48° at 43kts (From the NE at ~ 49.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the NW (316°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1002mb (29.59 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,462m (4,797ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,473m (4,833ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 400mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 43kts (~ 49.5mph) in the northwest quadrant at 5:09:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 51kts (~ 58.7mph) in the southeast quadrant at 5:16:40Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
Banding North and East on radar
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 179 Comments: 38327
98. Skyepony
5:38 AM GMT on July 18, 2011
Recon just found 1002mb. Wow..

Yeah~ I'm having trouble getting behind NE till it stops moving SSE. That ridge is digging a little deeper than models expected. Should move off NE if it doesn't get shoved too far. Looks detached from that from now too.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 179 Comments: 38327
97. whitewabit (Mod)
1:07 AM GMT on July 18, 2011
Skye so where is Bret going to meander to???
see its going SSE a 2 mph right now... Doesn't seem to be stacked very well... can see the low level sliping SSE...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 364 Comments: 31616
96. Skyepony
12:23 AM GMT on July 18, 2011
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 22:04Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Mission Purpose: Investigate second suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 19
A. Time of Center Fix: 17th day of the month at 21:51:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°32'N 78°01'W (27.5333N 78.0167W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 138 miles (223 km) to the ENE (66°) from West Palm Beach, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 29 nautical miles (33 statute miles) to the SE (137°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 164° at 36kts (From the SSE at ~ 41.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 29 nautical miles (33 statute miles) to the SE (137°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1009mb (29.80 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 214m (702ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 213m (699ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 23°C (73°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 44kts (~ 50.6mph) in the northwest quadrant at 21:55:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 44kts (~ 50.6mph) in the northwest quadrant at 21:55:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 179 Comments: 38327
95. Skyepony
12:22 AM GMT on July 18, 2011
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 21:08Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Mission Purpose: Investigate second suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 16
A. Time of Center Fix: 17th day of the month at 20:54:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°30'N 78°06'W (27.5N 78.1W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 133 miles (214 km) to the ENE (66°) from West Palm Beach, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 45kts (~ 51.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the NE (41°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 60° at 43kts (From the ENE at ~ 49.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the NE (41°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1009mb (29.80 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 178m (584ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 178m (584ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 21°C (70°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 43kts (~ 49.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 20:45:20Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 179 Comments: 38327
94. Skyepony
9:08 PM GMT on July 17, 2011
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 20:37Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Mission Purpose: Investigate second suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 17th day of the month at 20:16:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°34'N 78°11'W (27.5667N 78.1833W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 130 miles (209 km) to the ENE (63°) from West Palm Beach, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 24kts (~ 27.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the NW (310°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 60° at 25kts (From the ENE at ~ 28.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 2 nautical miles (2 statute miles) to the NW (320°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1010mb (29.83 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 189m (620ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 188m (617ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 21°C (70°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 42kts (~ 48.3mph) in the east quadrant at 20:25:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 42kts (~ 48.3mph) in the east quadrant at 20:25:40Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 179 Comments: 38327
93. Skyepony
7:44 PM GMT on July 17, 2011
I heard them go overhead.. too cloudy.

Clouds & wind made for an awesome pony ride. Took Skye out to the swamp one last time before it's swamped for the summer. It was blooming. Well not the sawgrass so not expecting a major or anything.. Skye ran & screamed.. he was like riding King of the Wind today.

It was only half the kitchen but it was only tore up 1 day, not 6 weeks:) I'm still in shock.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 179 Comments: 38327
92. Skyepony
7:40 PM GMT on July 17, 2011
There it is recon found 1010mb, solid west wind Solid over 30kts around 600'.... COC ~27.583N 78.267W
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 179 Comments: 38327
91. aquak9
7:06 PM GMT on July 17, 2011
ahhh...did you get to see recon overhead?

cool on the new countertop.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 169 Comments: 26126
90. Skyepony
6:47 PM GMT on July 17, 2011
28.067N 78.233W is the closest to a center there is with 1015.3mb low, center doesn't look closed.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 179 Comments: 38327
89. Skyepony
5:59 PM GMT on July 17, 2011
AF304 just flew over head & is now descending into 98L.
Fresh windsat
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 179 Comments: 38327
88. Skyepony
5:40 PM GMT on July 17, 2011
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
17/1145 UTC 28.1N 79.3W T1.0/1.0 98L
17/0545 UTC 28.8N 78.6W TOO WEAK 98L
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 179 Comments: 38327
87. Skyepony
2:00 PM GMT on July 17, 2011
I'll let it finish meandering before saying which way 98L will go. Got to agree alot of those east coast homegrowns tend to steal our moisture & leave.

On the other hand..a very recent kitchen counter-top installation has taught me to not be so jaded about things that don't appear likely to ever happen..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 179 Comments: 38327
86. aquak9
12:51 PM GMT on July 17, 2011
so close but yet so far...

Told Rain last night it was (sooner or later) gonna get taken to the northeast. He did not like that.
He showed me the blob coming offa Africa, I said sorry, SAL or shear's gonna kill it. He did not like that, either.
Today it'll dry up, n we gotta mow. I am not Rain's friend this weekend...
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 169 Comments: 26126
85. Skyepony
5:13 AM GMT on July 17, 2011
We got a floater for 98L. 94E is still waiting on one.

Aqua~I think it's barely more east of me now. Moving SSE

201107170000 29.3 -78.8 20
201107161800 30 -79.1 20

HWRF is favoring you..

Blu~ I could see the lightning from it there for a while. Was too far off to hear it. I wundered what the show looked like from the beach.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 179 Comments: 38327
84. aquak9
3:56 AM GMT on July 17, 2011
woo-hooo!! look what Rainman found.

Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 169 Comments: 26126
83. OSHNBLU
12:57 AM GMT on July 17, 2011
Keeping an eye to my east.
Member Since: July 13, 2005 Posts: 117 Comments: 5216
82. aquak9
12:52 AM GMT on July 17, 2011
Skye- is it(98L) more east of you, or of me?
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 169 Comments: 26126
81. Skyepony
12:39 AM GMT on July 17, 2011
98L is pretty close to this buoy..31kt gust,

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 179 Comments: 38327

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About Skyepony

Forecaster, Skywarn, Horse Trainer, Artist and Gardener...I help moderate the Blogs at WeatherUnderground.

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West Eau Gallie
Melbourne, FL
Elevation: 29 ft
Temperature: 78.1 °F
Dew Point: 75.9 °F
Humidity: 93%
Wind: 1.0 mph from the SW
Wind Gust: -
Updated: 10:25 PM EDT on October 01, 2014
Forge Mountain
Mills River, NC
Elevation: 2540 ft
Temperature: 65.7 °F
Dew Point: 59.7 °F
Humidity: 81%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Updated: 10:25 PM EDT on October 01, 2014
APRSWXNET Etowah NC US
Etowah, NC
Elevation: 2376 ft
Temperature: 70.0 °F
Dew Point: 64.0 °F
Humidity: 80%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 1.0 mph
Updated: 7:11 PM EDT on October 01, 2014

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