Skyepony's WunderBlog

Yay~anger & persistence pays off..you don't have to pay for this stuff even though the universities have given it to companies to sell back to us.. Ha ha despite it all my model races are back:)


Scaled this back to the last 12hr model error since Bret is so young. So who's in the lead?

GFDN out front with a ~8nm error, slight lead over AEMN & AP01 (~10). AVNO, HWRF & NGP2 chasing with ~14/15. Unfortunately I got nothing on how the BAM models are doing.. NAM is doing better than usual with ~21, rest of the majors are trailing GFDL 33, CMC & NGPS 45.

This is dropping 1mb an hour..

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 07:00Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 02L in 2011
Storm Name: Bret (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 18th day of the month at 6:37:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°07'N 77°48'W (27.1167N 77.8W)
B. Center Fix Location: 142 miles (229 km) between the ENE and E (79°) from West Palm Beach, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,448m (4,751ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 45kts (~ 51.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the NNW (334°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 101° at 46kts (From between the E and ESE at ~ 52.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the N (3°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1001mb (29.56 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,466m (4,810ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,462m (4,797ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 52kts (~ 59.8mph) in the southeast quadrant at 5:16:00Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
Curvature North and East. Heavy rain inbound from NE.

Good Morning all~ 94E is now 04E.

Got .15" of sweet tropical rain from Bret so far today..

& Louisclocks wins 1st! for the morning. Congrats man..hope your good fortune follows you through the day..

Bret really tapped that afternoon blowup ya'll had yesterday. Send the moisture north..we'll take it.

Kinda interesting the model that has done the best overall with Bret, the GFDN, with an average of 6.7nm error lands this on the border of North & South Carolina.

Recon found center ~28.1N 77.1W 996mb

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 20:41Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number & Year: 02L in 2011
Storm Name: Bret (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 18th day of the month at 19:29:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°09'N 77°04'W (28.15N 77.0667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 209 miles (337 km) to the ENE (62°) from West Palm Beach, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,406m (4,613ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 60kts (~ 69.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the W (271°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 5° at 53kts (From the N at ~ 61.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the W (269°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 997mb (29.44 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,530m (5,020ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open from the north to the east, S
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 53kts (~ 61.0mph) in the west quadrant at 19:26:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 62kts (~ 71.3mph) in the southeast quadrant at 19:39:10Z

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 21:14Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number & Year: 02L in 2011
Storm Name: Bret (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 18th day of the month at 20:47:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°18'N 76°56'W (28.3N 76.9333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 225 miles (362 km) to the N (6°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,410m (4,626ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 49kts (~ 56.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NE (43°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 143° at 60kts (From the SE at ~ 69.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NE (46°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 998mb (29.47 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,517m (4,977ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,536m (5,039ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the south
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 62kts (~ 71.3mph) in the southeast quadrant at 19:39:10Z

Recon in center again..~28.350N 76.900W...998.6mb..52kts going in on the surface...43 coming out.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 22:29Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number & Year: 02L in 2011
Storm Name: Bret (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 13
A. Time of Center Fix: 18th day of the month at 22:03:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°21'N 76°54'W (28.35N 76.9W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 229 miles (368 km) to the N (7°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,414m (4,639ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the ESE (113°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 203° at 51kts (From the SSW at ~ 58.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the ESE (112°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 999mb (29.50 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,516m (4,974ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the south
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 60kts (~ 69.0mph) in the northeast quadrant at 20:42:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 22°C (72°F) which was observed 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the ESE (110°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
RADAR DEPICTED TWO MAIN SPIRAL BANDS HEAVIEST ONE IN THE NW TO W SIDE

Animated TRMM pass on Bret.

MA-ON


While i'm looking at TRMM data..ESPI has shot up to -0.05.

Evening everyone~ Straightened out the floaters & models. 99L is new. It was Bret's baby blob that's NE of Bret. Created when Bret lost part of his midlevel spin to shear a few days ago. Just kinda shows how conducive things are. It's all ocean in front of it, has a stretch of warm ocean to go, so I'll give it 30% chance. I think the next thing we'll be watching is that wave at 30W.

I took out the gulf rgb map & added East CONUS to Spain. Ment to do it a while ago, big picture & appease people in the NE.

Wabit~ That is horrific heat. Hazard map is lit up. Wonder if we'll see a lot of tornadoes when the front comes & clears the heat wave out.

Bogon~ Mosquitoes have been bad. I think less spraying is going on too with the economy.

Hades~ Thanks for updating us on the other basins when I got caught up in recon.

Aqua~ Blood bath describes it, I wear long sleeves & boots at night around here..


Bret's coming back to life a little. Recon has been out there a good bit of the day..here's latest.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 20:19Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 02L in 2011
Storm Name: Bret (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 15
A. Time of Center Fix: 19th day of the month at 20:08:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 30°11'N 75°38'W (30.1833N 75.6333W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 309 miles (497 km) to the SE (142°) from Myrtle Beach, SC, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,429m (4,688ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 47kts (~ 54.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the SE (131°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 215° at 46kts (From the SW at ~ 52.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the SE (131°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 999mb (29.50 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,519m (4,984ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 46kts (~ 52.9mph) in the southeast quadrant at 20:04:40Z

LowerCAl~ Thanks..I'll be listening for the ba-boom..


Happenings in the hood.. Brevard firefighters rescue horse stuck in Melbourne pool. I know people in these photos..

Once again..some of our finest:)

99L is now TD #3..

Wabit~ I've ridden behind that house & thought I'd put a real fence around the pool. There's several in this area like me that use our lawn as our pasture. It's hot..some horses seek out a swim in this heat.. 1/2 wunder if the kids didn't let him in.

We have Cindy now. Looks like it's gonna be one of those active seasons..


In that article it said there was a Clydesdale that somehow drown in a pond it got into while his owner was trail riding him earlier this week. This sounded bazaar to me. I've never heard of horses drowning in ponds before. They swim good. Quicksand or like a dried looking shit pit behind a water treatment plant is a different story. I've seen some stuff with horses..

Looking at Dora best preforming models the 3 EGR models did very well, at 72hrs out error was between 13 & 24nm. EGRI is on top with an impressive 14nm error for yesterday & scored the 13nm at 72hrs out. Honorable mentions here are BAMM, LGEM & HWRF.

Yeah, we were outside. Saw the ISS flyby, Ba-Boom wasn't long after. I think the shuttle was too low & west of me for the morning sun shooting over the curvature of the earth to light up the shuttle for us to see.

Hard to see this chapter close..but the ISS is complete. This gap in projects is tearing apart our community. Hope the commercial lot gets a people shuttle launching soon.

I posted a series of Atlantis pics after she landed. Surreal, sad day & The Astronaut Band played a Jamiroquai cover.