Florida El Nino forecast

By: Skyepony , 4:29 AM GMT on September 15, 2006

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El Ninos forecasted affects for the Florida..
credit NWS


NHC Tropical Disscusion

Local text Products



credit MLB NWS

Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook

Surfers & Surge
NOAA Wave Watch III
Local NWS Surf Zone Forecast
Storm surge threat model...Always wondered if or how vulnerable your or friend's place would be to surge? Covers Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie & Martin Counties.


Radar/Satellite/Microwave
Melbourne NEXRAD Radar
NOAA Atlantic and Caribbean Tropical Satellite Imagery ~ I like the RGB by day, rainbow at night with some Water Vapor thrown in once in a while.
GOES-East WV Imagery Loop - Atlantic Basin...excellent WV of the big picture.
Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC)

Models~
Local Meso Model (well it covers most the state)~ lots of informative blue bars, each a different model, above it to click on too. Forecasts weather for the nexr 24 hrs.
FSU Model page
Shear loop .

Click to make maps bigger.
PROBIBILITY MAP


SHEAR


STEERING CURRENTS


HURRICANE Isaac

500 PM AST SUN OCT 01 2006

...ISAAC MOVING TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA
OF NEWFOUNDLAND...WHICH INCLUDES THE CITIES OF CAPE RACE AND ST.
JOHNS.

THE 500 PM AST POSITION...36.3 N...60.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN

Every model recurves it away from the US cause a big front is sweeping it away.




click to make bigger
credit~ NOAA



Invest 97L is no more

Cmc keeps calling for this front that just stalled in the Bahamas to blow up in the Bahamas & head north. The 18Z gfs again had it form into a very small storm in the Bahamas & dying as it hit S FL. Both models look to have this even weaker today. But what was once 97L is headed into the area so area to watch winner..

Honorable Mention~

There is a 1008mb low in the southern Caribbean. Good news, lastnight it was a 1006mb low. It's in an area where the diffluence is enhanced. Should move off west & hit land.

Waves may be coming...Though models are tending down abit from the near 10'.

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34. Skyepony
6:41 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
Thanks Rays...Just watching out for our boy:)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36067
33. Raysfan70
10:50 AM GMT on September 30, 2006
Good Morning Skye.
Make it a Great Saturday.

Thanks fr the Heads up and your help last night.
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
32. Skyepony
7:16 PM GMT on September 29, 2006
Yeah Randrewl... Blog here is open topic:) Weather most appreciated, but horses & local happenins are popular too.

So you pull off the cowboy look well?

The high res link you'll find at the waffle house...
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36067
30. Skyepony
8:21 PM GMT on September 27, 2006
I don't care for a saddle with a horn, unless I'm roping cows, they hit in the belly jumping downed trees. The Mcllean, had to hang onto, comfortable enough, very versitle...pack, drag downed limbs, 40 places to tie stuff...

Another ex grade "A"? sweet. My most used is my Rodrigo Peseo saddle, has the knee rolls...

Leaving a little oysterhead..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36067
29. YellowPitts
4:05 AM GMT on September 26, 2006
Howzit?!

Thanx for the salute. Have been a bit busy as you would understand.

Hey! That Australian outback jobbie is not a very comfortable saddle. I have one myself, which was a gift. It hits me right on the bones in my bum, so it is now on the racks - just to say I own one!! LOL

I am used to a Stubben from Germany because I am an ex 'A' grade Showjumping jock. Those have a pad just below the tree that helps to hold you knee in place (prevent it from moving forwards) during the pop. But I don't think that would be too comfortable on a long ride. Unless you jump all the wet rocks in the path!

Don't slum it in a Spanish saddle man. They are pomp and bull ego's on the move LMHO!!!

Why not a good old American Cowboy saddle? Then you can take your 30/30 Winchester along!

Chau chau
28. whitewabit (Mod)
5:09 AM GMT on September 25, 2006
45.7 here tonite...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 357 Comments: 30130
27. Skyepony
5:05 AM GMT on September 25, 2006
Hey code, those Australian saddles are sweet. I think my favorite for comfort is a spanish saddle they use to fight bulls with Andalusians...

They have no tree, so it was like a bareback cloud that was hard to fall out of.
Sounds like a sweet plan for a ride you have planned.

Glad ya'll are enjoying the blog:)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36067
26. mermaidlaw
8:25 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
Skye, This is a GREAT blog! I really enjoy all of the info here! Thank you for the updates!
Member Since: July 23, 2006 Posts: 20 Comments: 8736
25. code1
5:46 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
Skye, nice blog. IMO, the Australian saddle can't be beaten for long trail rides. Especially with the covers they make for them. No callouses on my behind when I rode that one!
Hoping to hit the Big Sky area for a week long ride either this fall or next spring.
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
24. Skyepony
2:27 PM GMT on September 23, 2006
Congrats again BT, you'll be beat'n boys off with a stick when she's a teen! She is a beauty!
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36067
23. bigtrucker
6:51 AM GMT on September 23, 2006
Thanks for the well wishes. she is just beautiful... and healthy!!!
PS nice blog....BT
Member Since: January 9, 2006 Posts: 80 Comments: 6118
22. Skyepony
4:14 AM GMT on September 23, 2006
Been playing in the local weather graphics. Ya'll let me know if ya miss the text.

The link with the credit for that takes you right to where you can select these & more & loop them.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36067
20. OGal
10:12 AM GMT on September 20, 2006
Skye, thanks for the updates on the shuttle. I so worry for those guys. They need only perfect returns. Hopefully that is just loose junk and not part of the shuttle. All eyes will be on their path home!

Any new news on Brenda?? What about the quilting shop??
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 72 Comments: 19222
19. Skyepony
7:59 PM GMT on September 19, 2006
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36067
16. Skyepony
6:29 AM GMT on September 19, 2006
We finally got our 1st Cloudsat of Helene as a Major...it is incrediable...

Click on First Look for 9/18/2006 15:47, then click the green box #18.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36067
15. Skyepony
1:52 PM GMT on September 18, 2006
Hey Ogal, I might have got a little over excited by the shuttle landing...LOL. Imagine my disapointment at near 6am.. Nothing here on Thimlar.

YellowPitts your blog is too good to stay out of. Really enjoyed the trees.

Okay~ There is really a bunch of well placed narrow & steep trails running around Jackson Falls. Though I was precarously balanced on a rock 2' above a 6' square table rock for the pic.. The Magic of the distorting camera. Glad ya'll are enjoying it. By then it had been more than a week since I'd had a proper bath or worn makeup...

Saddles I use regularly~ All purpose hunt seat, Mclealen (sp wrong...the old american army saddle) & flat seat. I'll try to find a pic of the army one later, like a western, more like an austalain but unique.

wabit~ I gotta try to run you down later:)

I'll try to update the weather in the blog in a bit.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36067
14. OGal
12:19 PM GMT on September 18, 2006
Mornin Sky, thank you for stoppin by my blog with the nice words. I am excited about the shuttle landing tomorrow morning. I am glad that hopefully they will land prior to the rain.

Have you heard any more about the Thimlar case? We have had nothing in our papers over here. Hope you have a wonderful Monday!
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 72 Comments: 19222
13. YellowPitts
5:43 AM GMT on September 18, 2006
Morning! (here)

Who gave you permission to read my blog?! LMHO heh heh

It was nice to hear from you again.
I have been scratching around your blog a bit - observed:-
1. You are NUTS free climbing wet rocks
2. I would have liked to just hear the roar of those STS (rocket) engines.
3. We never see such dramatic weather conditions here.

We only get the good old 'Cape Doctor' winds from the South East (Antarctica) @ 40-50kts below 2000'AGL. Unpleasant on the ground - makes for power take-offs - @ V2 (wings are working - flying) rotate to 40(RWY24) to exit the TMA (terminal airspace), and at wind ceiling lower the nose to 20. Quick. Pilots always want quick. We don't want to work for too long! LOL

Thanks for the NASA Link.
Have a good week.
PS: What saddle do you use?
12. whitewabit (Mod)
5:34 AM GMT on September 18, 2006
61
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 357 Comments: 30130
11. Skyepony
5:04 AM GMT on September 18, 2006
The shuttle is due to land at 5:57am EDT Wed...

Here is a page to live feed NASA TV. Enjoy...
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36067
10. Skyepony
5:49 AM GMT on September 17, 2006
Thanks Fran. The ponies enjoyed the attention today, I rode Skye about a 1/4 of a mile, mostly walking. This is pretty short of our usual outings. When we got back, he pretended like our house wasn't even there. Just wanted to keep going. Weather was sweet for that & got done right before the ferocous mosquitos arrived, in time for a good bug spraying.

:) Ya'll have a great Sunday
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36067
9. FLCrackerGirl
12:58 AM GMT on September 17, 2006
Glad You're Feeling Better Skye.
Hope The Rest of The Weekend is Pretty & Enjoyable.
Give The Ponies A Hug from Us (me & The lurker nieces).
Fran
Member Since: August 12, 2004 Posts: 47 Comments: 587
8. Skyepony
11:13 PM GMT on September 16, 2006
Thanks Gams! I'm down a wisdom tooth. Good to be back on my feet again. The ponys are most glad. That looks almost contagous, the way we've been going down with tooth problems...

Glad your finding the place useful. You've seen my local blogs spread before:) I stopped myself from putting Lane stuff up, my excuse for is... gotta watch how his remains effects the next trough in case Helene misses the one in front of her...lol. I've been tempted to put links to the other FL NWS offices as well. I will if ya'll want them.

{{wabit}}~ It's so nice to be smiling without pain again.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36067
7. whitewabit (Mod)
9:21 PM GMT on September 16, 2006
Skye...glad your feeling better...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 357 Comments: 30130
6. seflagamma
9:02 PM GMT on September 16, 2006
Skye,
Your blog heading is great. Lots of good info even if I am not north enought for your area! Did you have a root canal or mouth surgery also (a few weeks ago it was Love, then Veracity with the painful mouths!LOL)

Hope it gets better soon; nothing worse than tooth or jaw pain.

Thanks for the info in your blog.
Gams
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 294 Comments: 40839
5. Skyepony
4:02 PM GMT on September 16, 2006
Hey gal, hanging in there:) Mouth still hurts, not as bad. I'm done with the pain pills though, couldn't live on that cloud any longer... Thanks for askin.

Ya'll have a great day.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36067
4. carolinagal
5:27 AM GMT on September 16, 2006
hi, skye. Doing ok?
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 6774
3. Skyepony
5:24 AM GMT on September 16, 2006
Hey stormydee, that beach riding pic took me back, the water there looked unreal...I just know it is illegal in Brevard County.

Thanks for the quake links, came in handy with the one in the area of Shanshan tonight.

stormchaser~ good to see ya & thanks! Guess it's gone a little farther then local...lol. I seemed to have lost some of the regulars with no emenent threats. Hope luck has been with you:)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36067
2. stormchaser77
6:33 PM GMT on September 15, 2006
It's Like a Mini Hurricane Center In Here! lol
Hurricane Forecasting and Tracking Info with Humour and a Cool Vibe. Go Skye!!
1. stormydee
3:36 PM GMT on September 15, 2006
Hey Skye! TGIF!!!
Yes, the horses in water is so awesome! I didn't know it was illegal here in the US. Shhh. I'll be quiet. LOL ;-)
Have a great weekend!
Dee :-)
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517

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About Skyepony

Forecaster, Skywarn, Horse Trainer, Artist and Gardener...I help moderate the Blogs at WeatherUnderground.

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