Tropics

By: Skyepony , 4:52 AM GMT on January 02, 2012

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Atlantic

East Pacific

Central Pacific

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95P

92S

91P


09S IGGY








A site to check out storms.
A place to check for invests
MIT storm forecast & intensity models
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Garden~

When to plant what & how in Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Alabama.


January gardening is best done for most the state during the warm spells. The cooler spells, just keep it watered & it should about tend itself. * means last month to plant.

North FL is planting more this month, nearly the full season range of veggies. Plant beets, Broccoli, Brussel sprouts, cabbage, Carrots, cauliflower, celery, kale, Kohlrabi, leek, Mustard, parsley, snow peas, potatoes, radish & turnips.

Central FL The 1st tastes of summer get planted this month & just about all the cool season veggies..plant eggplant, peppers, tomatoes, watermelon, beets, broccoli*, cabbage*, carrots, cauliflower*, celery, collards, kale*, kohlrabi, leek, lettuce, mustard, parsley, snow peas, potatoes, radish & turnips.

South FL Plant everything except cantaloupe, okra, sweet potatoes & strawberries.

January 2012
30th-31st Fine For Planting Beans, Peppers, Cucumbers, Melons And Other Aboveground Crops, Where Climate Is Suitable.
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Local Weather~

Mostly dry





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Final Shuttle Launch (Skyepony)
I did this in Charcoal. It is ~6"X8". It should be the first in a series of three.
Final Shuttle Launch
Discovery Launch STS-120 (Skyepony)
I did this in pen & ink it is STS-120 Discovery, launched on October 23, 2007. It's ~6
Discovery Launch STS-120

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Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 06-20112012
16:00 PM RET January 11 2012
=======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 06R (996 hPa) located at 25.1S 53.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving east southeast at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: NIL

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 25.5S 54.0E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 25.6S 52.5E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 24.8S 49.3E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
72 HRS: 26.4S 44.7E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================

The low monitored yesterday south-east off Madagascar (distinct from Chanda which filled up over Madagascar yesterday) has deepen due to upper level forcing during the past 24 hours. Last satellite pictures and ASCAT data at 0510z show an asymmetric low level circulation pattern with winds by the order of 20-25 knots reaching 30 knots , locally 35 knots, in the southern semi-circle, up to 240nm from the center due to the gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures.

Convective activity is located at more than 2° south-east of the low level circulation. The convergence line east of the low over la Reunion island is shifting eastward towards Mauritius island as its intensity is weakening.

Energetic supply is poor with sst by the order of 26°. Monsoon flow supplies the north-eastern part of the circulation. Low level convergence is good in the south-eastern sector, on the northwestern edge of the subtropical anticyclone. North-westerly upper level vertical wind shear is moderate, system being located on the north-eastern edge of an upper level trough.

System should move slowly south-eastward within the next 12hours, and westward beyond, over the northern edge of the strengthening subtropical high pressures. So system is forecast to move under the upper level trough, under weak vertical wind shear tomorrow Thursday, but monsoon inflow should weaken as the system is shifting westward. Upper level vertical wind shear is forecast to strengthen again at the end of the week. Consequently potential for the development of this low is poor for the next days. Available numerical weather prediction models are in fairly good agreement for the south-east and then west track. winds will remain strong in the southern sector of the disturbance due to the gradient effect with the subtropical high anticyclone.

Current intensity doesn't justify issuance of regular warning.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45318
54. whitewabit (Mod)
Skye ... up to 54 degrees here today but looks like snow is headed our way and may get an inch or two tomorrow with blowing snow ...

Update - snow amounts have been increased to 2-4 inches ...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hello Skye!

You didn't get any big rain? It got very dark and then lots of rain for about 20mins and now it looks like the sun is on it's way. Wish there had been more.
And a bunch for you too. But I'm happy.....going to get that 50 and 60 weather and I love that!

HH
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Dvorak says 65 knots.

Heidi is now about 10 km from Port Hedland as of the 20th advice.

Link
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45318
Cat 2..That's a little stronger than what was expected.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 37866
oh boy, it sure is hard getting advices when they are hourly.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45318
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #19
TROPICAL CYCLONE HEIDI, CATEGORY TWO (07U)
3:00 AM WST January 12 2012
=========================

At 3:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Heidi, Category Two (975 hPa) located at 20.1S 118.8E or 15 km northeast of Port Hedland and 200 km east northeast of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 6 knots towards the coast.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0D1.0/24 HRS

Storm Force Winds
================
20 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center in northern quadrants
40 NM from the center in southern quadrants

Tropical Cyclone Heidi remains a category 2 system as it tracks south towards the Pilbara coast. Gales with gusts to 120 km/h are occuring in coastal areas between Port Hedland and Whim Creek. Destructive winds with gusts to 155 km/h are possible along the coast between Pardoo and Port Hedland, and should extend west towards Whim Creek during Thursday morning as the cyclone crosses the coast. Gales with gusts to 100 km/h may extend west to Dampier during Thursday morning if the cyclone takes a more southwesterly track, and into the adjacent inland parts of the central Pilbara.

The heaviest rainfall is expected to the east and south of the system. Rainfall totals of 100-250 mm are possible across the central and eastern Pilbara. Refer to Flood Advices for further details.

Tides in the Pilbara are likely to be higher than normal.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Wallal to Dampier, including Port Hedland, Roebourne, Karratha and Dampier, and extends to adjacent inland parts.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 21.2S 117.9E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 22.3S 117.1E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 25.1S 115.7E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================

Tropical Cyclone Heidi has remained category 2 over the last few radar images and satellite passes, indicating an intensity of 55 knots.

Latest image DT of 4.0 based on embedded centre pattern.

Motion in last 6 hours is now south, however forecast is still for a more southwesterly movement after landfall.

The system should maintain its intensity through to landfall and then weaken rapidly. Shear has remained low, with latest forecast models indicating strong shear will not be encountered until after landfall.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 20:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45318
Bit of rain is slipping north of me. The tiny bit of green that swiped me isn't even hitting the ground..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 37866
Starting to think 99 percent of this rain is just gonna slip right by me!

Good Morning Skye!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 97 Comments: 32019
Cloudsat caught Chanda.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 37866
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #7
TROPICAL CYCLONE HEIDI, CATEGORY ONE (07U)
9:00 AM WST January 11 2012
=========================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Heidi, Category One (990 hPa) located at 18.4S 119.1E or 220 km north northeast of Port Hedland and 350 km northeast of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 8 knots towards the coast.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
40 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
100 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
60 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Heidi is moving in a southerly direction towards the Pilbara coast, and could produce gusts to 100 km/h in coastal areas from Sandfire Roadhouse to Port Hedland late this morning, extending west during the day, possibly as far as Mardie. Gusts could increase to 130 km/h close to the center as it crosses the coast overnight.

Heidi is currently a Category 1 system, and may intensify to a Category 2 system just before landfall.

The strongest winds and heaviest rainfall is expected to the east and south of the system. Rainfall totals of 100-250mm are possible across the central and eastern Pilbara. Refer to Flood Advices for further details.

Tides between Wallal and Whim Creek are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark overnight with very rough seas and flooding of low-lying coastal areas. Tides elsewhere in the Pilbara should also be higher than normal.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Sandfire to Mardie, including Port Hedland, Roebourne, Karratha and Dampier.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 19.7S 118.8E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 20.7S 118.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 22.7S 115.9E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 24.6S 114.6E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================

Tropical Cyclone Heidi, category 1, was located by Port Hedland radar and moving steadily southwards towards the coast. Intensity is based on Dvorak CI of 3.0 using MET, although recent DT estimates are at 2.5 from curved band pattern. Surface observations at Rowley Shoals overnight confirmed TC intensity having gale force winds in the northwest sector and a pressure of 993hPa, while Bedout Island to the southeast also is reporting gales.

Some intensification to category 2 intensity is possible prior to landfall overnight. Weakening should be rapid after landfall aided by increasing wind shear and then a more southwest track overland is likely. Model guidance has underestimated the intensity of the system and has tended to have a more westerly track than is predicted.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 4:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45318
32. Skyepony
Love when you post this stuff!

Walked out on the deck early this am and got to see a beautiful moon to the west over the lake and an orange sky. Started me off right for what would prove to be a long day of hard labor.

But I'm still smiling.
(hope you are too!)
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 97 Comments: 32019
Skye,

Glad you saw the Goat... I'm still laughing. I replied on my blog, but wasnt sure if you would see it.

A guy with a goat, who coaches little league soccer, like to paddle board, likes kids... he's getting pretty close to perfect! LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #6
TROPICAL CYCLONE HEIDI, CATEGORY ONE (07U)
6:00 AM WST January 11 2012
=========================

At 5:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Heidi, Category One (988 hPa) located at 18.1S 119.0E or 250 km north of Port Hedland and 370 km northeast of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 40-45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 10 knots towards the coast.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
20 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
130 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
50 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Heidi is moving in a southerly direction towards the Pilbara coast, and is expected to produce gales with gusts to 100 km/h in coastal areas from Sandfire Roadhouse to Port Hedland this morning, extending west during the day, possibly as far as Mardie. Gusts could increase to 120 km/h close to the center as it crosses the coast.

Heidi is currently a Category 1 system and should maintain intensity until it reaches the coast, after which it should weaken.

The strongest winds and heaviest rainfall is expected to the east and south of the system. Rainfall totals in excess of 100mm are possible across the central and eastern Pilbara with isolated heavier falls near the coast. Refer to Flood Advices for further details.

Tides between Pardoo and Whim Creek are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark with very rough seas and flooding of low-lying coastal areas. Tides elsewhere in the Pilbara should also be higher than normal.

BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Pardoo and Mardie, including the communities of Pardoo, Port Hedland, South Hedland, Whim Creek, Roebourne, Pt Samson, Karratha, Dampier and Mardie need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Sandfire to Mardie, including Port Hedland, Roebourne, Karratha and Dampier, including the towns of Port Hedland and Karratha.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45318
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #5
TROPICAL CYCLONE HEIDI, CATEGORY ONE (07U)
3:00 AM WST January 11 2012
=========================

At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Heidi, Category One (993 hPa) located at 17.7S 119.1E or 295 km north of Port Hedland and 410 km northeast of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The low is reported as moving south at 11 knots towards the coast.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
20 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
130 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
50 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Heidi is moving in a southerly direction towards the Pilbara coast, and is expected to produce gales with gusts to 100 km/h in coastal areas from Port Hedland to Wallal early on Wednesday morning, extending west to Dampier later on Wednesday. Heidi is currently a Category 1 system, and is unlikely to intensify further before reaching the coast.

The strongest winds and heaviest rainfall is expected to the east and south of the system. Rainfall totals in excess of 100mm are possible across the central and eastern Pilbara with isolated heavier falls near the coast. Refer to Flood Advices for further details.

Tides will be higher than expected.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Sandfire Roadhouse to Dampier, including the towns of Port Hedland and Karratha.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 19.7S 118.6E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 20.9S 117.3E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 23.3S 114.9E - 20 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================

Tropical Cyclone Heidi has intensified into a category 1 system. A Current Intensity of 3.0m is based on the pattern and MET.

Gales are currently being observed at Bedout Island, thus the extension of the radius in that quadrant. Rowley Shoals reported a period of gales earlier and is now reporting just below gale SSW winds, consistent with the location of the center.

The system is moving south into a region of increased shear, suggesting further development is unlikely. However, the system should maintain current intensity until Wednesday afternoon when it moves into even higher shear and starts to weaken before crossing the Pilbara coast.

After the system weakens due to the shear, the low level circulation is likely move westwards while the mid level circulation tracks to the southeast. Models with a stronger system have a tendency to forecast a more southerly track, whereas models with weaker systems are taking Heidi further west.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 22:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45318
MIMIC has been showing strong westerly flow across the Indian Ocean, which bucks the generally easterly trade winds associated with the intertropical convergence zone.

It was a westerly surge which spun up the twin cyclones last month.

Looks like there might be something cooking northwest of Australia now.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3698
Hey Everyone~ 91P & 92P are gone..

Finn~ We aren't the only ones looking at the moon..from MLB NWS..

THE LAST TWO NIGHTS HAVE SEEN A PROMINENT HALO DVLP AROUND THE FULL
MOON...A CLASSIC SIGN OF PREFRONTAL MOISTENING THAT OFTEN PRECEDES
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
WILL GO WITH 80 POPS OVER THE NW HALF OF THE
CWA... DECREASING TO 60/70 POPS OVER THE SE HALF AS THE STRONG AND
DEEP SWRLY FLOW PUSHES THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ACRS THE N HALF OF
THE STATE. ISOLATED TSTMS PSBL BUT SVR WX UNLIKELY AS A TEMP BULGE
IN THE H70-H60 LYR WILL PREVENT DEEP LYR LAPSE RATES FROM BECOMING
TOO STEEP...THUS KEEPING TOTAL INSTABILITY MARGINAL AT BEST.

Hades~ 92S is dropping crazy rain...Hope to get a TRMM pass soon.

shoreacres~ Thanks for bringing the excellent read:) Hope you got your rain.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 37866
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #3
TROPICAL LOW 07U
9:00 PM WST January 10 2012
=========================

At 8:00 pm WST, Tropical Low 07U (998 hPa) located at 16.6S 119.1E or 415 km north of Port Hedland and 515 km north northeast of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The low is reported as moving south at 11 knots towards the coast.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
90 NM in the southeast quadrant
50 NM in the southwest quadrant

A Tropical Low is moving southwards towards the Pilbara coast. The low has strengthened over the past 6 hours, and is now producing gales over offshore waters to the south of the center. The low may develop into a Tropical Cyclone on Wednesday and is expected to produce gales with gusts to 100 km/h in coastal areas from Port Hedland to Wallal early on Wednesday morning, extending west to Dampier later on Wednesday.

The strongest winds and heaviest rainfall is expected to the east and south of the system. Rainfall totals in excess of 100 mm are possible across the central and eastern Pilbara with isolated heavier falls near the coast. Refer to Flood Advices for further details.

Tides will be higher than expected.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Wallal to Dampier, including the towns of Port Hedland and Karratha.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 18.5S 118.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 20.2S 117.6E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 22.8S 115.3E - 20 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 24.7S 114.2E - 20 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================

A tropical low north of Western Australia has showed persistent convection near the center during the day, and has shown signs of development during the past 6 hours. A curved band pattern yields DT of 2.5 [with a wrap of about 0.5]. FT has been set at 2.5, based on MET and curved band.

A period of gales was observed at Rowley Shoals, to the south of the system center. The system is currently in an area of low to moderate shear and warm sea surface temperatures, suggesting that further development is possible in the next 24 hours. Despite this, all model guidance forecast a system with gales confined south of the center in the squeeze between the low and a ridge to the south and hence not strictly a tropical cyclone. While this remains the most probable scenario, the likely impact to the Pilbara coast of gales and heavy rain will be consistent with that of a category 1 tropical cyclone.

The low is expected to move southwards over the next 12 to 24 hours before taking a more southwestwards turn as it get closer to the coast. During this period shear increases and the low level circulation is likely to weaken and move more westwards while the mid level circulation tracks to the southeast.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 16:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45318
Beautiful moon tonight! Have a great week :)
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7320
I think you might enjoy this piece on plants in pain when you have an extra few minutes.
Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
FORECAST WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGION BETWEEN 90E-125E SOUTH OF 10S
2:06 PM WST January 9 2012
=========================

The monsoon trough is strengthening over tropical waters to the north of the state, and a weak tropical low is starting to form near 12S 118E. The low is likely to move steadily southwards and approach the Pilbara coast over the next few days. If the low remains over the ocean, there is a chance it could develop into a tropical cyclone later on Wednesday or on Thursday, although it is more likely to remain below cyclone intensity. However, regardless of whether the low develops into a tropical cyclone, thunderstorm activity is expected to increase over the central and eastern Pilbara and far western Kimberley over the next few days, with some heavy rainfall and squally conditions likely.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
====================================

Tuesday: Low
Wednesday: Moderate
Thursday: Moderate

Another tropical low may develop along the monsoon trough near 10S 105E on Tuesday. It is expected to move eastwards and remain weak through the outlook period.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
====================================

Tuesday: Low
Wednesday: Low
Thursday: Low
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45318
Love the story of the wedding ring and the carrot.

Interesting, too, the advice that yesterday was a day to write. I sat down in the morning and had a new blog entry posted before midnight. But if the first 12 days indicate weather for the year, I surely do hope we get our rainy day tomorrow!
Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
Moon was huge & orange when it came up.. Saw a ring at some point. Ups my chance of rain on the next front Thurs..


January
Moon Names: Wolf Moon, Quiet Moon, Snow Moon, Cold Moon, Chaste Moon, Disting Moon, Moon of Little Winter.

The word January comes from the Roman name for this month; it was named after the god Janus, who had two faces. This deity ruled over beginnings and endings, the past and the future. Since January is reckoned as the first month of a new year, this connection the the god Janus is appropriate. It is an excellent time to work on putting aside the old and outdated in one's personal life and making plans for new and better conditions.


The Chinese use this concept in celebrating their New Year, which occurs on the first day of the New Moon when the Sun is in Aquarius. They considered this celebration a time for settling debts, honoring ancestors, and having family reunions. They carry paper images of dragons through the streets and set off fireworks to chase away evil entities and misfortune.

Even the people of Tibet, whose year began about the end of January, had a celebration for expelling the Old Year. They made a dough image for the demons to inhabit, then worshiped then for seven days. At the end of that period, they took the image outside the village to a crossroad and abandoned it. The idea behind this seems to have been that the negative beings, who have accumulated during the Old Year, received recognition for their existence, but also received a firm statement, by the action of leaving their image outside the village, that they were not welcome to hang around.
Correspondences

Nature Spirits: gnomes, brownies
Herbs: Marjoram, holy thistle, nuts and cones
Colours: brilliant white, blue-violet, black
Flowers: Snowdrop, crocus
Scents: Musk, mimosa
Stones: Garnet, onyx, jet, chrysoprase
Trees: Birch
Animals: Fox, coyote
Birds: Pheasant, blue jay
Deities: Freyja, Inanna, Sarasvati, Hera, Ch'ang-O Sinn
Power Flow: Sluggish, below the surface; beginning and conceiving. Protection, reversing spells. Conserving energy by working on personal problems that involve no one else. Getting your various bodies to work smoothly together for the same goals.
OldSayings&Lore

* Whatever the weather is like the first twelve days of January indicates what the weather will be like for the next 12 solar months. Each day equals on month in succession.
* To wish on the Moon in order to see a specific person soon, say while looking at the Moon: " I see the Moon, The Moon sees me. The Moon sees (name of the person) who I want to see."
* To get rid of warts, take a slice of apple. While looking at the New Moon, rub the flesh of the apple against the wart and say: "What I see is growing, What I rub is going." Bury the piece of apple. As it rots, the wart will disappear.
* If a New Moon falls on a Saturday, it was said there would be twenty days of wind and rain.
* In prophesying marriage, on must look at the first Moon of the new year through a silk handkerchief. The number of Moons showing through it represents the number of months (Moons) of single life.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 37866
05S is Chanda. 90P & 91P are new.

Hades~ 91P/05F..I got to give it a chance. Spin & moisture..

Karen~ I don't think lettuce seeds go bad unless something bad happens to them:) Thanks for the pics. It's not getting dark til almost 6 here.

RTLSNK~ Should be a good year..


Did my first real slave day (3 hrs) in the garden since sometime in Oct. I've fairy planted some stuff here & there since. Some made it & some didn't. Now with the plants of summer dead from the frost, south garden was ready for some more winter fare. Well not really. Pulled weeds. Moved compost. That big pile in the back is done..come & get it before it dries out. Planted radish, cauliflower, snow peas, turnips, kohlrabi in starter pots & such. I didn't start plants in Dec to fill after the frost so I went & bought 2 types of cabbage, cauliflower, broccoli (all 9 packs), 2 strawberries (the 2 I bought a few months ago are about to put out a pint a piece), lavender, lemon balm & a patio tomato. Got 2/3rds in the ground today & a little gardening time planned for tomorrow.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 37866
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 03F
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 05F
9:00 AM FST January 9 2012
==================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 03F (1001 hPa) located at 22.5S 175.8W remains slowly moving. Position POOR based on multispectral visible/infrared imagery and surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 28-29C.

Convection has been irregular near the low level circulation center for the last 12 hours.

Global models expect 03F to weaken as it moves south.

Tropical Disturbance will not develop into a tropical cyclone.

System #2
---------

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 04F (1000 hPa) located at 18.1S 153.6W is reported as slow moving. Position FAIR based on GOES visible imagery and surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 28-29C

Convection remains persistent in the last 24 hours. The exposed low level circulation center lies just to the west of the area of enhanced convection. Organization has increased in the last 24 hours. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA. 04F lies just to the east of an eastward moving 250 HPA trough in a strong sheared environment.

Global models have picked up td04f and move it southeast with no intensification.

The potential for td04f to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is LOW.

System #3
--------

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 05F (1002 hPa) located at 17.5S 169.7W is reported as slowly moving. Position POOR based on multispectral visible/infrared imagery and surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 28-29C.

Convection remains persistent in the last 24 hours with the low level circulation center difficult to locate. Organisation has slightly increased in the last 12 hours. 05F lies under the 250 HPA ridge axis with a good upper divergence and along a surface trough. Cyclonic circulation extends Up to 750 HPA. 05F lies under a weak sheared environment.

Global models have picked up td05f and slowly move it in the east-southeastward with some intensification.

The potential for td05f to develop in a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is LOW to MODERATE
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45318
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE CHANDA (05-20112012)
16:00 PM RET January 8 2012
====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Chanda (996 hPa) located at 19.3S 43.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/12 HRS

Gale Force Winds
================

25 NM from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================

60 NM radius from the center extending up to 90 NM in the southern semi-circle and up to 150 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 20.1S 43.8E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 21.1S 44.3E - Depression sur terre

Additional Information
======================

The main cluster remains over sea but a peripheral band in the monsoon flow convergence extends far to the northeast and causes heavy and thundery rain on the western Malagasy coastline and also from 14s to 16s over the all width of the Mozambique channel. System feature has clearly improve over the last past 24 hours and shows on multispectral METOSAT 7 and msg2 imagery a well cyclonic curved band pattern extending mainly in the northeastern semi-circle. System remains slightly north northwesterly sheared and the llcc is difficult to locate precisely (even with microwave). 0611z ASCAT swath covers a large western part of the cyclonic circulation and agree with the RSMC 0600z fix, even in center location and intensity at 30kt, except some likely rain-contaminated 40kt winds flags. From this Sunday afternoon, polar low level inflow is forecast to improve in relationship with the rebuilding subtropical high pressure belt rebuilding in the south. Other low level environmental conditions (equatorward monsoon inflow, oceanic heat content) are already favorable for further intensification.

Sheared constraint should weaken within the next 12 hours allowing the system to deepen but a new westerly sheared constraint is expected to begin late today before the system is forecast making landfall and then dissipating overland. Window for intensification is short and the landfall is expected early Monday near Morondava. 0600z suggested alternative scenario is now the most likely.

The main center of this system is no more expected to cross the big island and to come back oversea. It should dissipate overland as a secondary low is expected to deepen slightly nearby the southeastern Malagasy coastline from Tuesday.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Services on TC CHANDA will be issued at around 18:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45318
Good morning Skye!

I intend on looking at the new year through the eyes of the young.

They see only the wonder of the world.

Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 20985
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 03F
12:00 PM FST January 8 2012
==================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 03F (1003 hPa) located at 21.0S 174.5W is reported as slowly moving. Position POOR based on infrared and visible imagery.

Organization has slightly increased in the last 24 hours. Convection has not increased or deepened much. System lies to the southeast of an upper level outflow center in a weakly sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. Global models are slowly developing the system and moving it eastward.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the Next 24 to 48 hours is moderate.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45318
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 05-20112012
4:00 AM RET January 8 2012
====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 05 (1000 hPa) located at 18.5S 41.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving south at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: 2.0/2.0/D0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 20.1S 42.2E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 21.2S 43.2E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 23.0S 45.9E - Depression sur terre
72 HRS: 23.1S 50.1E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================

Convection mainly fed by the monsoon flow has clearly strengthened during the last hours, colder, and organized into a curved banding. The system is expected to intensify within a favorable environment,efficient monsoon flow, good upper level divergence with a good polar outflow channel.

Numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement for a south-eastwards track, then the system is forecast to make landfall up to 24 hours on the southeastern coast of Madagascar.

All available models make coming back over the Indian ocean the center within 36 to 48 hours, but within more unfavorable conditions, cooler sea surface temperatures and strong vertical wind shear.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Services on Tropical Disturbance 05 will be issued at around 6:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45318
Hi Skye! I'm not doing too much gardening in January other than growing lettuce. A couple of months ago (maybe more), I sprinkled all the left over lettuce seeds I had in a couple of packets that were outdated. I honestly didn't think they would all sprout....but I think they did. I have given some do my daughter and mom, but I still have so much leftover. But the rule in my garden is, if it grows, it stays, if it dies, it gets another chance! LOL

I'm just trying to find some local friends who can take some of this off my hands! The lettuce in the earth box I purchased at a nursery back in September, but it's still producing!







Kind of waited too late to go out and take pictures. We had lost our sunlight! It was nearly 5PM!
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Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 37866
99S is now 05S


Locally the high was 80.3ºF. Beautiful weather, beautiful pony ride. Sunset was subdue. Got a few things ready to plant tomorrow. Collected broomcorn (enough for a broom) & seed. Eating alot of salad out of there. Ate the first of the frosted collards this past week. Suddenly there is alot of celery too. Snow peas coming good.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 37866
Good morning everyone..things are warming up here:)

ESPI has gone from -1.69 to -1.48 in the last few days. This big shift positive plus the SOI suddenly falling fast points to~ we are probably seeing the peak of La Nina & things are about to swing back the other way.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 37866
Benilde is gone..99S is new.
99S is in between Africa & Madagascar..


wab~ Enjoy. So cold here..(really, it's less than 50:)

Hades~ Heavy rains look bad with this one. Hope the core stays off shore.

Rob~I did get down to 30 but not for long. My watermelon is dying or won't be bearing for a while. Eggplant is dead.. Those are all plants of summer. Atleast the plants from fall lived. We were so spared..unlike..

psu~ that is brutal. Sorry for your fauna.. &

Lord Louis~ Playing god can be humbling. Task always lays heavy on me..Especially if I'm being lazy about saving them. Sometimes though the choices have to be made. I tend to leave out the ones that would die anyway or be stunted out of production til next summer.

Peace ya'll

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 37866
20. whitewabit (Mod)
Heat wave here with a high today of 55º ... 25º above normal temp ...
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RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
15:00 RET January 5 2012
============================

The area of convection located since yesterday over the northern channel is better defined this afternoon. Satellite imagery along with microwave imagery from TRMM at 0829 AM UTC show that a low may be located near 15.2S 42.7E about 200 km north of Juan de Nova and 350 km south southwest of the Comoros archipelago. surface low pressure is estimated at 1008 hPa. Surprisingly, 24 hrs pressure trends in nearby stations show some slow rise at present time. Within a mainly favorable environment (SST in the 28-29C, low shear under the upper level ridge, good divergence aloft with 2 potential outflow channel to the north and south and good monsoon low level inflow) and only a lack of tradewinds inflow as a negative factor, this low is expected to significantly deepen within the next three days. It should move little within the next 24 to 48 hours and then move towards the western or southwestern coast of Madagascar. Consequently, unhabitants of this area should closely follow the progress of this system.

Heavy rains risk is still present for the next 24 hours for large part of the northern channel, included
the Mozambique coasts (between 10S and 15S), the Comoros archipelago and the northwestern coast
of Madagascar.

For the next 24 hours, the potential for the development of a tropical depression is poor. Beyond, risk becomes fair to good during the week end in the Mozambique Channel.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45318
Good Morning!
It's a little over 41 F here this morning and seems to have bottomed out. That sun is sure gonna feel good this afternoon!

Looks like you made it through the night without a freeze as well!

Have a great day!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 97 Comments: 32019
RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
============================

On latest satellite imagery, we can depict initiation of low level clockwise circulation near 15S 40.8E close to the coastlines of Mozambique. From Friday, Available European numerical weather prediction models forecast a low deepening within this area.

For the next 48 hours, there is no potential for the development of another tropical depression. Beyond, risk becomes poor to fair in the Mozambique Channel.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45318
22.2 Here in Orange City this AM, everything plant wise is dormant or dead. In the 20s for over 10 hours



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Pretty good freeze down here, maybe six hours. When covering plants and running out of covers, it is weird picking the plants that may live and die. At some point you kinda say " sorry and I hope you the best, but you will probly die "
Pretty nice day here after about 10am. Tomarrow will be nicer.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qD-Fmbg9kOk&feature =related

Peace
Member Since: February 22, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 95
We didn't get as cold as you guys did. One more cold night and we can get back to some sensible weather this weekend. Good plan with the hay!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 97 Comments: 32019
90W is gone.

Most everything lived here. I think that tomato plant was dying anyway. There is one pepper that was under a sheet that has a few damaged leaves. The others under hay fared just fine. I'm always amazed how well & easy the hay works (down to about 18).

Looks like it only went below freezing for about those 3 hours in the evening & early night..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 37866
It's the first killing freeze..my garden gasps. I just returned from a council of gardeners, we are all hoping for the best.

The passionfruit,
watermelon,
sweet potatoes,
tomatoes
& some the herbs..

So far 3 hours below freezing then a slight rise just above freezing.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 37866
Good Morning everyone..spawn of Benilde (98S) is gone.

Locally~ The cold winds have arrived. highest wind so far..21mph. My tent was found this morning, upside down in a palmetto. Skyepony (the actual pony) told me in no uncertain terms he's keeping his sheet on.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 37866
Lot of dead Herring in Norway.

Part of Australia is having a heat wave.. Maybe 115F this week.. Wildfires on the roam.

Looks like that earthquake in Ohio was another due to waste water injection/fracking. Says that's occuring in Arkansas, Colorado & Oklahoma.

Rains continue in Brazil, mudslides claim a few more.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 37866
Wabit~ I'm missing the snow at my other farm in WNC. There was a 30% chance. There's already an inch on the ground. Enjoy yours for me:)

About the freeze is in comment #3..it's expected in Melbourne 75% of cool seasons. The last 10 years I'd say the freeze ratio has been higher. A freeze tomorrow night would peg the median 1st freeze date.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 37866
8. whitewabit (Mod)
hope the freeze misses you ...

24 degrees and snow showers here this afternoon...

how often do you not get a freeze during the winter in your area ? or do you always get a hard freeze ??
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Check that graphical.. forecast lows are now even lower. I'm 1/2 expecting a freeze tomorrow & near freeze tonight. Bringing in a few plants, doing a heavy harvest, including making pesto of all the basil, then putting a layer of hay over the more tender stuff.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 37866
90W is new..


They have lowered the low temp forecast for tonight..

RTLSNK~ I feel your pain.. Faced with un-decorating Leyland Cypress, putting her outside to make room for tropical plants to escape the coming snap. & there is the Geotrax..the toy train set with clock tower, chugging around the tree that is getting packed up too.

Great story too.. It's nice to be reminded of how a good husband can spoil a girl even more than a good Dad.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 37866
Good Morning Skyepony, and Happy New Year to you!

Today is a sad day for me, today is the day I take the Christmas Train Set down that runs around the base of the Christmas Tree.

Many years ago SugarBear and I got married in June of 1992. Before our first Christmas together she told me the story about there being three daughters in her family and her Father was one of these guys who didn't believe in buying his daughters what he considered to be "boy" toys. She had always wanted a train set for Christmas and had never gotten one.

So I went to one of the hobby shops on Oakland Park Blvd there in Fort Lauderdale that sold the large G-scale German made LGB train sets and bought her a seven car Christmas Train Set and hid it in the trunk of my car. Christmas Eve after she had gone to sleep, I went downstairs and set it up under the tree.

I always get up early to make the coffee so when I heard her get up to come downstairs I turned it on so it was running around the tree when she came downstairs. No matter how many dumb things I've done since then I'm still covered by the attaboy points I made with that train set gift. :)

I don't go quietly into the night however, I sit by the control unit and run the train around the tree a couple of dozen times and then take off the Caboose first and start it up again while I'm packing up the Caboose. Then I take the next car off and let it run around the tree again until there is only the Engine going around and around. :)

Next year when the grandson turns four, I'm going to set it up in the playroom upstairs so we don't have to put it away any more!

I simply refuse to grow up. :)

Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 20985

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Forecaster, Skywarn, Horse Trainer, Artist and Gardener...I help moderate the Blogs at WeatherUnderground.

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