Tropics

By: Skyepony , 4:52 AM GMT on January 02, 2012

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Atlantic

East Pacific

Central Pacific

West Pacific

Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere
95P

92S

91P


09S IGGY








A site to check out storms.
A place to check for invests
MIT storm forecast & intensity models
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Garden~

When to plant what & how in Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Alabama.


January gardening is best done for most the state during the warm spells. The cooler spells, just keep it watered & it should about tend itself. * means last month to plant.

North FL is planting more this month, nearly the full season range of veggies. Plant beets, Broccoli, Brussel sprouts, cabbage, Carrots, cauliflower, celery, kale, Kohlrabi, leek, Mustard, parsley, snow peas, potatoes, radish & turnips.

Central FL The 1st tastes of summer get planted this month & just about all the cool season veggies..plant eggplant, peppers, tomatoes, watermelon, beets, broccoli*, cabbage*, carrots, cauliflower*, celery, collards, kale*, kohlrabi, leek, lettuce, mustard, parsley, snow peas, potatoes, radish & turnips.

South FL Plant everything except cantaloupe, okra, sweet potatoes & strawberries.

January 2012
30th-31st Fine For Planting Beans, Peppers, Cucumbers, Melons And Other Aboveground Crops, Where Climate Is Suitable.
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Local Weather~

Mostly dry





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Final Shuttle Launch (Skyepony)
I did this in Charcoal. It is ~6"X8". It should be the first in a series of three.
Final Shuttle Launch
Discovery Launch STS-120 (Skyepony)
I did this in pen & ink it is STS-120 Discovery, launched on October 23, 2007. It's ~6
Discovery Launch STS-120

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155. RobDaHood
11:27 AM GMT on February 01, 2012
Good morning.
Was just checking in to see if I'm allowed to transplant tomatoes and peppers today. From your last post I see that it is probably okay. Good. They are getting too big for their pots.

Have a nice day.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31807
154. Ylee
6:42 AM GMT on February 01, 2012
White rabbits x 3, Skye!
Member Since: February 3, 2011 Posts: 92 Comments: 15383
153. Skyepony
4:08 AM GMT on February 01, 2012
Hey everyone..95P is new. North end of Australia. Navy dropped 93P which is kinda the north part of 91P. 91P got a floater.

FEB 1st..get to planting 2&3rd the seeds will rot in the ground..
1st Fine For Planting Beans, Peppers, Cucumbers, Melons And Other Aboveground Crops, Where Climate Is Suitable.
(I"ll get February's blog up tomorrow.


Hades~ Models are all over the place on Iggy. Incredible disagreement for something that has been around so long..

RTLSNK~ Gifts are best shared. Glad you enjoyed. I've certainly enjoyed your gift of words.

Ylee~ your poor dino.. I think I like the charcoal the best too. The soap thing is because it fits into the new definition of cosmetics which now includes things that cause cleanliness. They changed the rules around on the cosmetics too. They want us to buy all this stuff. It's ridiculous to ban making for personal use & such..

Gamma~ I forgot I put the outside murals on here & they inspired so many people. I did paint some murals for money in college too.

The other stuff though, it's easy to give it away.

I was wundering about what had become of your recent effort. It's hard to get it done with life, chores & all. I'm going to try & put in a few hours a week. Don't have much more than that.

Good luck getting your layoff, package & stuff sold:)

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37455
152. Skyepony
8:32 PM GMT on January 31, 2012
TRMM pass of 92S, click pic to play.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37455
151. RTLSNK
10:30 AM GMT on January 31, 2012
Skye, your sketches are beautiful! What a talent!
I like the pen and ink one the best, SugarBear likes the charcoal!

I have "0" ability to draw or paint, I am still at the "stick man" stage.:)
My Son has the talent to draw freehand. Go figure.

I have always written stories and poetry so I am happy with the gift I was given.
When you have time you should continue to use your gift and share it with others as you have done for us.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 20685
150. Ylee
5:58 AM GMT on January 31, 2012
Finally got your blog to load on the old dinosaur!

I have very limited knowledge, and even less skill when it comes to art, but I like the charcoal one better! Can't explain why, just like it better!

I'm rather incredulous over Florida's ban of making soap for personal use. My grandmother used to make lye soap in the old days, and she lived to be 84! Is it a phosphate issue, or a safety issue?

Can't wait to see the third one!
Member Since: February 3, 2011 Posts: 92 Comments: 15383
149. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:28 AM GMT on January 31, 2012
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGGY, CATEGORY ONE (11U)
9:00 AM WST January 31 2012
=================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Iggy, Category One (984 hPa) located at 21.8S 109.4E or 490 km west of Exmouth and 555 km northwest of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
--------------------
90 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 23.4S 108.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 25.6S 107.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 28.2S 109.5E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
72 HRS: 27.3S 110.2E - 25 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Additional Information
=======================

Deep convection has reduced over night and this morning's visible imagery shows limited deep convection near the center despite low shear. Organization is good but the convective signature relatively weak.

Position determined from microwave, animated IR and latest VIS imagery. Excellent microwave fix at 2257Z gives high confidence in position.Curved band wrap of 0.6 to 0.7 consistently obtained over IR imagery 1730-2230Z. MET is 2.0 based on a weakening trend and PAT = 2.5. FT is set at 3.0 and as FT has been lower than CI for over 6 hours CI is now dropped to 3.0. ADT is running at around 2.6-2.8. Latest [17Z] SATCON is 51 knots 1-min mean, with AMSU dominating that estimate at 58 knots 1-min mean. FOV for AMSU was 28 [poor] and a bias correction was applied.

Final intensity estimate set to 45 knots 10-min mean.

Good agreement between the models on the track with majority of models taking the remnant system toward the west coast from Wednesday. Minority of models have the system weakening sufficiently to be steered off to the west. With a passing mid-latitude trough to the south on Wednesday the steering is toward the east at all levels except 850hPa. There is some discrepancy in the SST analyses available from different sources but by Wednesday the sea surface temperatures should also be forcing a strong weakening trend.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on TC IGGY will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44888
148. seflagamma
12:50 AM GMT on January 31, 2012
Skye,
Well, I knew you were an artist I have seen some of your art work outside and wall murals...plus all you do in your everyday life, from sewing, gardening, candles, soaps, etc.. you are an artist by every means.


Your charcole and pen & ink sketches are great!!!

You are so talented in so many ways... and have so many options.

I see what you wrote above:

"I don't think I've ever sold anything. Sometimes I give it to whom ever inspired it. There is a gene that runs in the family..not one of us has done anything to make a living with it. I'm tempted to give it a go with the internet, craft markets & all."

I'm in that boat also.. I've been painting all my life and really got serious in my 20's then agin in my 40's and then the last 2 yrs..
I just don't have time to paint then do the networking it would take to sell them..
and goodness I have given away so many paintings over the past 36 yrs..


I am praying for a "layoff" this year with a "package" so I can give it a real try..
as long as I am working full time I cannot do it I have sincerely tried in 2010....
as I go into retirement then maybe I can pursue my dream.

You have a special talent and skill and your art is so good!!!

Glad you finally posted so we could see!!!




Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 298 Comments: 40885
147. RobDaHood
12:48 AM GMT on January 31, 2012
Quoting Skyepony:
Rob~ I'm doing the third a little larger in pencil. Seemed like those usually came out okay.

That will be cool.

Long ago, the only two portraits I've ever done were in soft pencil shaded with charcoal. I'm not good with faces, but two actually turned out nice.

On the political front...I had no idea. I don't usually talk politics on blogs except maybe generalizations because I find it counter productive, but I suppose my basic belief is...if it ain't hurting anyone...leave them the hell alone! I may write some letters...
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31807
146. Skyepony
10:09 PM GMT on January 30, 2012
Rob~ I'm doing the third a little larger in pencil. Seemed like those usually came out okay.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37455
145. Skyepony
10:07 PM GMT on January 30, 2012
The second sketch is up. I wish I could take as good a pictures..the pictures don't look as sharp as the originals in hand..

Rob~ It's illegal to manufacture soap/cosmetics for personal use or to give away in FL now. We aren't suppose to make anything, just buy it all. I was worried with Rick Scott, some of the Legislature & the ties to Big-pharm. I didn't even know this bill had passed or that it was going through the process.

I've always stuck to what I enjoyed when I've worked. Not trying to make a killin just a few hours of time around the house to kill. I'll go back to training horses/lessons maybe the track when my life is my own again.

I'll post more art if I keep up with it. It's an easy way to look them over with fresh eyes several times. I'll darken outside on the top of the booster on the Charcoal one.

Maybe it's time. Like Finn said.. ripe fruit & all. I'll need muses.

Finn~ Thanks for the luck & the link. I see how to get to it from the other. Made me smile to protect a little rainforest. Always tried to keep my blinders on there. Rob made me look..they got cool stuff..lol.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37455
144. RobDaHood
9:41 PM GMT on January 30, 2012
The pen & ink is very nice too. Having a hard time deciding which I like best.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31807
143. RobDaHood
7:31 PM GMT on January 30, 2012
142. LakeWorthFinn
Took a quick peek. If Angie finds that link I'm in trouble!
LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31807
142. LakeWorthFinn
7:00 PM GMT on January 30, 2012
"art talent & physics infatuation go hand in hand"... SO TRUE!
I really like your charcoal painting! Good luck with your artistic pursuit. We are like fruit trees. Sometimes it takes years to mature enough to give. And it's never too late when fruit is good :) Please post the next part of the art-trilogy.

There's a new button to click. I think you'll like it: RAINFOREST SITE
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7281
141. RobDaHood
5:23 PM GMT on January 30, 2012
I can see licensing of soap and cosmetic making for sale to the public, but saying you can't run a small business from a home is kinda stupid. If you are using the same ingredients, the same equipment, etc...what is the difference? A lot of businesses in this country, including some of the biggest corporations started out in a garage. Rest assured though, if you are doing something to make money, someone in government is going to try to find a way to license it, regulate it, and get their share of any potential profit.

I tell the kids that success is not measured in dollars. The successful person is the one that actually likes going to work. Some of the most miserable people I know are wealthy and hate what they do. Some of the happiest barely get by but love it. So find something you love to do, then find a way to make a living at it and you are successful.

Of course, I have found that some things I like aren't much fun when you "HAVE" to do them everyday.

If you are an artistic person, you have to have an outlet for it. I've done some pottery and clay sculpture. I've made some cool stuff but never really made money at it. But still, it's a good creative outlet and once in a while I'll do a project. Like when I made the sink for one of our bathrooms.

I'm getting long winded when I should be working, but I hope you find something that brings you both joy in your heart and $$$ in your pocket!

Looking forward to seeing a lot more of your art!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31807
140. Skyepony
4:02 PM GMT on January 30, 2012
Hades~ Iggy has been such a unique, sloppy storm. Kinda interesting MIMIC.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37455
139. Skyepony
3:11 PM GMT on January 30, 2012
Morning everyone.. 98S is gone 92S is new.

It's a sunny day here, temps should be near perfect in an hour or two.

Thanks Rob & Louis~ I've probably eluded to the artist thing. Just haven't produced much in a while. My physics teachers had the same affliction, they said the art talent & physics infatuation go hand in hand.

I don't think I've ever sold anything. Sometimes I give it to whom ever inspired it. There is a gene that runs in the family..not one of us has done anything to make a living with it. I'm tempted to give it a go with the internet, craft markets & all. FL passed a law in Oct making it illegal to make soap, lotion & cosmetics without a license & a business location not at a residence. I haven't really enjoyed the daily grind of standing over a stove making that stuff.. coming up with recipes & using the final products were my joy. The license isn't all that expensive, but business space in town...I was looking more for something I could do at home with the kids around. Kind of knocked my direction for a loop when I found out about it last week. The fine is steep.. So in a moment of indirection art springs forth (once again).. Actually I plan to enter this series in the fair. Hoping to take down the local retired artists for the $50 best in show award. If I keep producing then I'll try & sell some after..we'll see. I'm liking the shuttle as a subject. That charcoal is the first time I've ever drawn one..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37455
138. RobDaHood
11:53 PM GMT on January 29, 2012
Quoting Louisclocks:
Nice Shuttle picture.

Skye Rocks!
(and she's an artist too!)
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31807
137. Louisclocks
11:40 PM GMT on January 29, 2012
Nice Shuttle picture.
Member Since: February 22, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 93
136. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:35 PM GMT on January 29, 2012
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #25
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGGY, CATEGORY ONE (11U)
3:00 AM WST January 30 2012
=================================

At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Iggy, Category One (977 hPa) located at 20.0S 111.4E or 355 km northwest of Exmouth and 590 km north northwest of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as nearly stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/W0.5/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
--------------------
90 NM from the center

Tropical Cyclone Iggy is expected to continue to move very slowly this morning before taking a more southwesterly track during Monday afternoon.

It is possible that Tropical Cyclone Iggy may move close enough to the coast to cause a period of gales between Exmouth and Coral Bay. Destructive winds are not expected. Gales are not expected to occur between Coral Bay and Carnarvon.

Tides will be higher than expected along the upper west coast.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Onslow to Coral Bay, including Exmouth.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 20.6S 111.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 21.2S 110.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 23.6S 107.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 26.1S 107.6E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Additional Information
=======================

The system has been located by a combination of microwave imagery and ASCAT. Although shear remains low, there has been little sign of intensification. FT number remains at 3.0 based on wrap averaging 0.6-0.7 on images since 0530Z. MET and PAT have generally been around 3.0, and although the latest image could be classified as 3.5, FT and CI is held at 3.0. CIMSS AMSU intensity estimate at 09Z indicated 61 knots 1-min, although previous estimates were a fair bit lower than this. ADT is now at 56 knots 1-min and SATCON 59 knots 1-min. Final intensity estimate is held at 45 knots 10-min mean, which is supported by a 1440Z ASCAT pass which showed no winds above 40 knots around the system.

The lack of development may also be hindered by Iggy's lack of movement, meaning the system remains over the cooler water it has upwelled. Satellite imagery shows a deck of stratocumulus to the SW indicating a stable maritime boundary layer unfavorable for development.

It is possible that Iggy may re-intensify slightly over the next few hours in the diurnally favorable period, but in the longer term it is unlikely that Iggy will significantly intensify, contrary to some model guidance. By Tuesday the system will be moving over much cooler sea surface temperature and may be experiencing stronger wind shear.

TC Iggy has remained near stationary over the last 24 hours but a southwest movement is expected to begin soon. The system should then track southwest away from the coast and weaken below cyclone strength offshore in about 2 to 3 days. It is possible the remnants of Iggy may move back towards the west coast later in the week but it is very unlikely that Iggy would still be a cyclone at this time.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on TC IGGY will be issued at 22:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44888
135. RobDaHood
8:34 PM GMT on January 29, 2012
Cool, I'll be looking forward to it.
As for cats...a woman's mind is hard enough...no way I'm going to try to figure out cats. I just react to whatever they do.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31807
134. Skyepony
8:17 PM GMT on January 29, 2012
90S is gone 91P is new..

Locally~ Beautiful riding weather today..

Pros~ Hope you had a great Birthday:)

Rob~ Thanks. I did another in pen & ink lastnight. I'll try & get a pic up in a bit.

Love how cats insist on what they like.. Mine eats catnip any form, prefers the homegrown.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37455
133. Proserpina
2:44 PM GMT on January 29, 2012
Photobucket
Member Since: May 6, 2008 Posts: 169 Comments: 18102
132. RobDaHood
7:32 PM GMT on January 28, 2012
Really nice drawing of a shuttle launch!
Thanks for sharing it with us!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31807
131. RobDaHood
7:04 PM GMT on January 28, 2012
Last winter, I grew some catnip. Cat totally ignored the plant. Thought if I kept it inside she wouldn't mess with my seedling plants. Thought wrong.

BUT. Once I clip it and dehydrate it she goes nuts for it.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31807
130. Skyepony
2:59 PM GMT on January 27, 2012
Looks like WNC made out with rain without the severe weather lastnight. Got ~.86" at The Gash farm in Mills River.

At my FL farm 0.01" might be all I'm seeing..


Rob~ The way this has been setting up with the rain drying up before it gets to the east side & just watching all the fires coming out the swamps on dry windy days on radar..might not be a happy fire season over here.

My cat has been eating the catnip to the nubs here. Busterpony got in the south garden lastnight. Ate some snowpea plants, a few onions, plantain (the herb) & the ripe strawberries. Garden fencing has moved back up the list..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37455
129. RobDaHood
1:14 PM GMT on January 27, 2012
I noticed that on the radar too. Looked at the screen, looked out the window. The views didn't match!

LOL

Got Rain?

Light and steady since before I crawled out of bed this morning.

Plants are happy...well, except for the ones that the cat killed!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31807
128. Skyepony
4:47 AM GMT on January 27, 2012
Heavy chaff tonight on radar.. Here comes a line of storms. Possible tornado in Tallahassee..Y'all stay safe!

Bogon~I'm expecting it to go off. Maybe make 90kts..



Rob~ I wouldn't have wanted it much warmer.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37455
127. Bogon
6:41 PM GMT on January 26, 2012
Looks like Iggy is really starting to pop.


Sorry, I couldn't stop myself. :o)
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 78 Comments: 3651
126. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:20 AM GMT on January 26, 2012
Fiji Meteorological Services
======================================

At 11:00 AM FST, Tropical Disturbance 07F (1007 hPa) located at 17.8S 164.0E is reported as slow moving. Position POOR based on multisatellite visible imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Organization in past 24 hours has not improved much. Convection remains persistent in the last 24 hours. The system lies under the 250hpa ridge axis and in a moderate sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends to 700hpa.

Global models have picked up the system and slowly move it southeast with little intensification.

The potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48hours is low.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44888
125. RobDaHood
6:39 PM GMT on January 25, 2012
So how's that hammock working out for you?

It is sure 'nuff warm outside today.
Not that I'm complaining.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31807
124. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:30 AM GMT on January 25, 2012
Darwin Tropical Warning Center
=================================

At 3:30 pm CST a Tropical Low [994 hPa] was located over land near 14.5S 130.8E, approximately 160 km west of Katherine moving southeast at 7 knots.

The low is expected to continue moving southeast across the northern territory during the next few days.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44888
123. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:28 AM GMT on January 25, 2012
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL LOW 11U
3:00 PM WST January 25 2012
================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Low (994 hPa) located at 15.9S 108.4E or 900 km northwest of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity:
======================

12 HRS: 16.3S 108.3E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 17.0S 108.5E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 18.7S 109.5E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 20.0S 110.4E - 70 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
========================

The low level circulation centre is clearly evident on the eastern edge of the deep convection. A shear pattern analysis gives a DT of 3.0. Curvature is slowly improving and a wrap of 0.4 was obtained over several visible images. Trend is assessed as D- giving a MET of 2.0. PAT is assessed as 2.5 and FT is set to 2.5. Partial ASCAT pass at 0155Z suggests 25-30 knots on the western side under deep convection, with monsoon flow removed to the north.

The system is likely to slow and begin to move south or southeastwards overnight as the subtropical ridge to the south erodes. The extratropical transition of ex-TC Ethel and the vigorous monsoon trough, add some uncertainty to the development and movement of the system however, it appears likely the system will move in a southerly or south southeasterly direction over the next 72 hours, closer to northwest cape, whilst intensifying steadily. Relatively shallow sea surface temperature may limit the intensity of this system, particularly if it becomes slow moving over waters south of 20.0S.

Strong monsoonal flow is likely to contribute to a broad area of abnormally high significant wave heights affecting Christmas Island, the west Kimberley, and adjacent Pilbara coasts. The strong monsoon flow may also produce heavy rainfall and strong winds on the coast well to the east of the current low, extending into the Kimberley.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin/advisory from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at around 13:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44888
122. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:27 AM GMT on January 25, 2012
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #26
CYCLONE TROPICAL FUNSO (08-20112012)
10:00 AM RET January 25 2012
=======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Funso (960 hPa) located at 22.6S 38.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 3 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/5.0/W0.5/6 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
25 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
100 NM radius from the center, extending up to 120 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
120 NM radius from the center, extending up to 160 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 23.2S 38.7E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS: 23.6S 38.9E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 25.0S 39.1E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 26.9S 39.9E - 60 knots (Forte TempĂȘte Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================

System achieved a first ye wall replacement cycle during last night (cf. TRMM at 22.05 PM UTC with the central core disappearing and formation of a 25 NM diameter eye) According to the last satellite multispectral and mw pictures, the radius of maximum winds is narrowing again. TRMM picture at 03.36z suggests that the system is actually undergoing a second eye wall replacement cycle. Consequently system should weaken again during the next few hours and the actual short range intensity forecast takes it in account.

System is tracking globally south southwestwards under the steering influence of a mid-latitude trough transiting in the south and the mid-level ridge existing in its east. The polar trough is expected to achieve to evacuate rapidly. Then, under the only steering influence of the aforementioned ridge, system is expected to shift slowly south southeastwards until day 2. Over this forecast track, environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable under the upper level ridge and sustained by a building second outflow channel poleward this Wednesday 25. This environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable up to friday 27. When the second eyewall replacement cycle will be complete, Funso should start a new intensifying phase.

On and after 60 hours, Funso is expected to accelerate south southeastwards in relationship with a deep trough transiting in the mid-latitude. At this range, system will undergoing both cooler sea surface temperature and an strengthening westerly vertical wind shear in the same time. Funso should weaken and then begin its extra-tropical transition. Available numerical weather prediction models are now in good agreement for this scenario.

According to the current forecast track, Funso is slowly tracking away from Europa Island. Strong winds gusting at about 100/110 km/h should occur today and the next night.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC FUNSO will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44888
121. Skyepony
8:26 PM GMT on January 24, 2012
There is some golfball size hail breaking out in TX..

Rob~ Looking at this it's just getting started..

Best to all our weather satellites. Some like cloudsat that are only operating in sunlight, kinda limping on their last leg are a little worrisome.

Shore~ I can get in there. Many of the regular maps up top link to NOAA & will disappear if the site totally crashes.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37455
120. RobDaHood
2:54 PM GMT on January 24, 2012
Hey, Skye, how long do I have to leave this foil on my head? So far I still have electricity, internet, cell phone, and Sat TV.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31807
119. shoreacres
2:21 PM GMT on January 24, 2012
Skye - I can't get into any of the NOAA sites this a.m. Lack of the SPC is a special concern. Any advice? I can't get there through FF or IE, through address bar, bookmarks or links on other sites. Strange.

ADD: I can get to the NWS main page, but the link there to the severe weather page won't load, either. It must be them, but I haven't found anyone else talking about it.
Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
118. Skyepony
2:14 PM GMT on January 24, 2012
Morning everyone.. Ethel & 96P are gone.

Hades~ Those Funso models just keep get closer to land. S Africa might get grazed.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37455
117. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:45 AM GMT on January 24, 2012
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
TROPICAL LOW 11U
3:00 PM WST January 24 2012
================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Low (996 hPa) located at 16.0S 112.6E or 680 km north northwest of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving west at 13 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/1.5/D0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity:
======================

12 HRS: 16.5S 110.9E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 16.9S 109.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 18.5S 109.7E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 20.1S 109.9E - 75 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
========================

System assigned T1.0 at 00Z. Yesterday the cloud system center could not be defined in an area less than 2.5 degrees. Overnight convection consolidated near a developing low level circulation center. ASCAT and visible imagery show the low level circulation center gradually becoming better defined but low level cloud lines are still poorly organized.

The system has shown further improvement over the last 6 hours and FT is set at 1.5. Shear is generally low south of 15S and models indicate the system will experience low shear for the next 72 hours. Combined with sea surface temperatures over 30 degrees the system is expected to develop faster than the standard Dvorak rate and may reach tropical cyclone intensity by early tomorrow.

The subsequent track may develop on the rate of intensification with some models indicating the system will take a southerly or south southeasterly track on Thursday. On Friday the system is likely to be near 20S. Sea surface temperature decrease south of 20S and the system is likely to be slow moving which may cause upwelling and reduce Sea surface temperatures. As shear remains light, weakening in the longer term is more likely to be due to low oceanic heat content.

The monsoon trough is expected to remain strong over the next few days, resulting in strong northwesterly flow extending well to the east of the system center and bringing moderate swell and increased rainfall to coastal areas of the Pilbara and Kimberley.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin/advisory from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at around 13:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44888
116. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:45 AM GMT on January 24, 2012
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #22
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE FUNSO (08-20112012)
10:00 AM RET January 24 2012
=======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Funso (936 hPa) located at 20.5S 39.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 7 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/D0.5/12 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
18 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
30 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 110 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 160 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 21.5S 39.5E - 110 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 22.5S 39.2E - 115 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 24.3S 39.2E - 105 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 26.0S 40.1E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
======================

After a maximum at 2030 PM UTC yesterday, system intensity has rapidly fluctuated in relationship with its small size. Eye is still minuscule within a very cold 90 to 120 NM central dense overcast.

Within the next 24 hours, Funso remains under the steering influence of a ridge situated in the east and is expected to keep a southward track. Beyond, ridge moves away eastward as a shallow trough transist in the south of the system from west to east. Funso might decelerate and take a south southeastward track. Within the next 48 hours, environmental conditions remain very favorable under a upper level ridge and over high heat content waters.

From j+3, system should continue to track southeastward by accelerating with a deeper trough coming from the west in the south of the system. At the same time, a westerly vertical wind shear should slowly strengthen and Funso will encounter more and more cold waters. So system might progressively weaken.

Available numerical weather prediction models are now in good agreement for this scenario.

Inhabitants of the central and southern channel (including Europa Island) should closely monitor the progress of this system.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC FUNSO will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44888
115. Skyepony
3:31 AM GMT on January 24, 2012
Funso TRMM pass. Click pic for quicktime.. Hot tower there on the last frame.


Rob I leave the tree rats to the cat.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37455
114. RobDaHood
3:00 AM GMT on January 24, 2012
Ponies eating the corn is not such a bad thing...tree rats on the other hand...

Signing off for the night real soon now.
Take good care Skye!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31807
113. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
6:51 AM GMT on January 23, 2012
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #18
CYCLONE TROPICAL FUNSO (08-20112012)
10:00 AM RET January 23 2012
=======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Funso (960 hPa) located at 18.3S 39.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 3 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D0.5/12 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
15 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
25 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
40 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 NM in the northern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 19.4S 39.2E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 20.8S 38.7E - 100 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 22.7S 37.8E - 110 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 23.9S 38.0E - 115 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
======================

Funso tracks away from Mozambicans coastline and intensifies again as previously forecast. Inner core remains very small with less than 40 NM diameter (refer to ssmis-f17 0230 AM UTC) with a pinhole eye and a second external convective band (opened southwestward) from 40 to 60 NM radius from the center. Within the next hours, Funso keeps on undergoing the steering influence of the mid-level near-equatorial ridge northeastward, and should track slowly southeastwards.

Beyond, a ridge builds in the east of the system and the track might recurve southwards and then south-westwards. From j+3, a mid-tropospheric ridge rebuilds west of the system and a trough quickly transits south. Both contradictory steering flows might provide deceleration on southward track.

An strong uncertainty exists for the final track (refer to uncertainty cone) and a westward recurve is not totally excluded (like ECMWF forecast and its ensemble) that should steer Funso toward the Mozambique coastlines with a possible landfall in the region of Inhambane on Friday 27th. Current RSMC forecast track remains consistent compare to the previous ones waiting for future numerical weather prediction models runs. Over this track, environmental conditions remains favorable for regular further intensification up to 96 hours encountering again high energetic potential sea surface temperature (29C) and it should regularly intensify.

At the end of the forecast range, system should weaken again as it will track over less warm waters by shifting down toward the south.

Inhabitants of the central and southern channel (including Europa island) should closely monitor the progress of this system.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC FUNSO will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44888
112. Skyepony
6:23 AM GMT on January 23, 2012
Ponies ate my fall corn & some carrots.

I kept trying to grow different types. Best luck has been golden & silver queen corn followed by Bantam Corn.

The bugs that eat corn hate pennyroyal. If I have it I'll put a leaf or two down the center of the corn shoot when it's near 1' high.

Even with a 5' X 5' block I still like to hand pollinate. Check in the morning, when the pollen poofs off with a little tap, cut off a top & use the pollen wand to wipe pollen on the corn silks. Feed (they are very heavy feeders), water & fight off the multitude of animals that want to eat corn too:)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37455
111. RobDaHood
11:30 PM GMT on January 22, 2012
Quoting seflagamma:
Hey Rob,
I wonder why my corn does not grow properly and does not mature...
I love sweet fresh corn, maybe I will give it one more try. LOL

Gotta talk to Skye about that sweetie.
I'm not a garden expert...I plant it and it grows or it doesn't.
I'm best with trees.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31807
110. seflagamma
10:22 PM GMT on January 22, 2012
Hey Rob,
I wonder why my corn does not grow properly and does not mature...
I love sweet fresh corn, maybe I will give it one more try. LOL
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 298 Comments: 40885
109. RobDaHood
10:20 PM GMT on January 22, 2012
Quoting seflagamma:
I did get some lettuce and onions in those containers; they should do ok.

I have tried corn 2 yrs in a row and it never did good at all for us. Even tried some in my neighbor's big garden.
I have no idea why corn will not pollinate or even grow properly!


Hey Gamma!

Well, I can grow corn here like you wouldn't believe. Just have to plant 4 times as much as I want because the squirrels always get there first.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31807
108. seflagamma
10:02 PM GMT on January 22, 2012
I did get some lettuce and onions in those containers; they should do ok.

I have tried corn 2 yrs in a row and it never did good at all for us. Even tried some in my neighbor's big garden.
I have no idea why corn will not pollinate or even grow properly!

Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 298 Comments: 40885
107. Skyepony
3:32 PM GMT on January 22, 2012
Tornado Chasers streaming live..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37455
106. Skyepony
2:54 PM GMT on January 22, 2012
Y'all stay safe in the Southeast today.

97S & 98S are new..

97S


98S


Hades~ The new Funso forecast looks a little better without that landfall at the end..

Gamma~ Sounds like your garden is doing well. Still should be all good to plant the winter, spring & fall fare down there. I'm thinking about some spring stuff here. As soon as I can dig up the rest of the sweet potatoes, I'm planting corn. Not sold on another freeze.. I've been putting up the garden fence around the south garden.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37455
105. seflagamma
10:27 PM GMT on January 21, 2012
Hello Skye,
Happy Saturday to you!!

Finally feeling better and I hope I get to get into the garden Sunday and Monday this weekend.

I never got a chance to plant any lettuce or more green onions and a few other things need to be replanted.

I don't think it is too late for cold weather plants just yet; I will give it a try anyway.

My herbs and one tomato plant is doing great.. The chili pepper plants did great..
and the broccoli and caluiflower are now making heads...

but I still have empty pots and a little space in the raised bed. I must get it planted! LOL

Enjoy your weekend and I know you are like me and you are loving this weather we are having this winter!

Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 298 Comments: 40885

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