Upgrades to my WS and more
My Webcam
First of all, I'd like to present my deepest sympathies to anyone affected by the recent massive tornado outbreak on April 27th. Sadly, over 300 people have died and the toll continues to rise but at a much slower pace than it was yesterday.
This outbreak has risen quite a few questions as to why so many people died in this age of technological advancements. Well it's plain and simple, this was an unbelievable outbreak and it hit a somewhat heavily populated area. That many tornadoes could form on any other day and kill 0 people because most of the tornadoes occur in the middle of nowhere so-to-speak.
I think the meteorologists have done an exceptional job forecasting this one. The SPC's high risk was bang on with the area where most of the tornadoes occurred in and around northern Alabama. Again, unfortunately the outbreak slammed a populated area.
There is always the possibility of a large tornado on every major outbreak to hit a big city in the US. I think everyone in this area should have a thorough and well thought out plan to get to a safe location within 5 or 10 minutes every time a tornado warning is issued.
A lot of people are tired of false alarms but can you really feel that way when your life is on the line?
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I've made quite a few improvements as you can see from this old picture I took.
My wind vane now stands about 22 feet tall instead of 10 feet so the wind speed is virtually perfectly registered. The only problem is the thermometer and that is why I have nailed down 97% reflective material on the roof of the shed so that I get a better result. Of course, the shed produces a lot of infrared heat and I would probably need to cover the whole roof for it to have an effect but I just found out that at my local Home Depot, it would cost 100-120$ to cover the rest of the roof and I'm not sure it's worth it.
Unfortunately, this is the best location for my weather station so it will have to do.
My thermometer functioned bizarely for 48 hours between the 24th and 26th of April (fluctuated from -40C(-40F) to 40C+ (100F+) in a matter of minutes) and I am waiting for a warranty replacement to arrive by mail from Ambient Weather. It now seems to be functioning perfectly now, however, the question is, for how long?
Figure shows what was being registered on Cumulus has my thermometer started behaving strangely.
My data are obviously all messed up as a result... and being a perfectionist it bugs me quite a bit but hey, I'm hoping it functions well until I get the new one. It is really important for me to start May off perfectly. (don't ask me why!)
My wind vane registered wind gusts up to 68.4km/h on Thursday, even as the cold front passed the wind was at 50-65 km/h for about an hour. I was thinking it was going to register a wind gust of at least 80km/h since areas in Ontario and even here close to home in Quebec have felt winds up to 100km/h.
Oh yeah and one single thunder was so loud it scared the cat for about 30 minutes! (not exaggerating)
And as usual we only got a few drops as the cold front passed. I really am not in a good location to experience strong storms as they are quite rare around here... We usually get a few gusty storms (2 up to 4) a summer but only from June to August so I'll have to be patient and even those are bland. In the Laurentians, 200km northwest of here, they actually get stronger storms!
Maybe I'll be lucky and in May I'll get a strong squall coming in...
On my next blog I might talk about one of my opinions about the weather... we'll see if I feel like it. I will blog about the five cities I am currently producing graphs with to show how they are warming in the next weeks. I have chosen different areas in Canada, far and wide. (yes, I have blogged about them but I think I will introduce a new format and post them all at once to better represent and compare each locale)
Enough of my talking (must be because I haven't blogged for a while)
Have a good weekend all!
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Snow Depth
Sea Surface Temperatures
Sea Ice Cover
250mb Winds
Latest Surface Analysis
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The weather is always interesting. - Jesse Ferrell
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Updated: 11:58 PM GMT on April 30, 2011
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Rain, Ice Pellets and now snow?
My Webcam
April 16th 8:30pm EDT
The impressive storm system bringing all kinds of hazardous weather from heavy snow to a major outbreak of tornadoes to flooding is a classic example of a spring storm.
Heavy snow has fallen in Alberta, Canada.
Snow amounts as of yesterday morning:
Vulcan 27cm
Calgary 10-30cm (depending on location)
Jasper about 30cm or a foot
Those are the only amounts I can remember from The Weather Network's broadcast but surrounding areas also received 10 to as much as a foot of snow and of course even higher amounts in the Rockies.
Figure 1 clearly shows a trail of snow left being from the storm (valid through 04-16-11 06z)
Snow is falling in the Great Lakes and in areas of northeastern Ontario you can expect excessive amounts on the order of 30-45cm (1-1.5 feet). Ahead of the warm front; in the mountains of the northeast US, Ontario, Quebec have all seen snow. The Appalachians will probably receive a good round of snow. My house has seen some odd snowflakes as well with a fairly stable temperature of 1-2C (34-35F) and I wouldn't be surprised if some of the white stuff accumulated through the night.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Alabama and the Carolinas have all been hit hard with an exceptional tornado outbreak. Over 200 tornado reports have been filed in and you can expected that number to increase as more reports flood in from today. Unfortunately several lives were lost in the outbreak. See Jeff Master's blog for more information.
A lot of ice pellets have fallen today at my house. In fact, at 2PM, it was a little dark outside with the approaching precipitation and I was certain it was going to be all rain but ice pellets were falling. I later found out when I got home that the temperature was around 5C or 41F.
My thinking is that the sun warmed the air just above the ground but above about 1000 feet, the air was quite cold in the St-Lawrence valley. Warm air from the storm situated over the Great Lakes at that time (2pm EDT) had risen over the cold air in the area and that was enough to melt precipitation which later froze again as it fell further into the low-level cold air creating ice pellets but with a very shallow warmer layer at the surface they didn't have ample time to melt. (a situation you wouldn't see in winter due to the weak sun and if it was 2C outside, there's every chance in the world plain rain would have fallen)
At around 6:00pm when I was preparing supper, rain gave way to ice pellets again and that continued for quite some time.
Here's a picture (3mb) of the accumulation.
Plain light rain in falling now with a temperature of 1.6C. According to my rain gauge 11.4mm have fallen so far today since about 2PM and much more rain is expected through the night. Environment Canada has issued a rainfall warning because they think 30-40mm will fall.
This weather pattern is not looking like it's going to abate anytime soon as more storms are coming with a similar track with snow and severe weather in the long-range.
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Snow Depth
Sea Surface Temperatures
Sea Ice Cover
250mb Winds
Latest Surface Analysis
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The weather is always interesting. - Jesse Ferrell
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Updated: 1:38 AM GMT on April 17, 2011
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Update - My new Weather Station
My Webcam
My Forecasting Area
Evening Update
My barometer was giving a false reading as well because I had not programmed the relative sea level pressure to the current pressure registered at the nearest official weather station and now it is fixed.
My hygrometer's highly fluctuating observations was likely due to some kind of malfunction obviously but exactly what, I haven't got a clue. I re-installed Cumulus (an internet publishing software I use. It's free and certainly worth it, I find it superb. Definitely recommend it.) and reprogrammed my weather station receiving platform and now it shows an accurate reading which is very close to the observations at the official weather station which is only 5km away. It isn't fluctuating at all anymore but is much more constant.
Notice the difference with the one below on the original post.
This might be due to the sun setting. Although I have a good solar shield (or take a look at the close-up picture I took of my weather station below included in my original post) around my thermo-hygrometer there could easily be some kind of interaction with what's on my lawn.
Original
I've taken some pictures of the location of my weather station. I know it's not optimal but living in an urban area is never ideal for 'accurate observations'. I have installed a rather large piece of material which is 99% reflective, if not 100%, up to about 5 feet from my weather station. I did this because the patio produces a lot of infrared heat and when the wind is calm the registered temperature isn't accurate. Of course, the wind vane is a lot lower than it should be too but I like to know what kind of wind I can expect at head height and not 10 metres above the ground where I'll never be.
I have just one question if anybody can answer it. The relative humidity registered always seems a little lower than at the airport. (which is only 5km from my house)
Although, since I have installed the highly reflective piece of material the dewpoint reading is about 3 degrees centigrade higher on average. (from -17.5C to about -15.0C as I`m writing this) It does, however, fluctuate quite a bit. Everytime it updates (every minute or so) the dewpoint changes by about 0.5-2C. Is this normal? Up to -13.8C this time.
5 minutes later: Yes, the dewpoint is moderating and achieving near-airport levels (by a degree). I still am in doubt as to why it fluctuates so much. It probably is normal but I'm not sure...
Temperature is maybe 1-2C warmer but that's expected considering I'm in an urban area and about 60 feet from the nearest road. Not too far from the house as well, maybe 30 feet. I wish I could live somewhere where it isn't as crowded as it is here and not just for this reason! Peace is another reason obviously.
Everything else seems to be working just fine.
Here are some pictures...
Comments greatly appreciated :)
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Snow Depth
Sea Surface Temperatures
Sea Ice Cover
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Latest Surface Analysis
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The weather is always interesting. - Jesse Ferrell
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Updated: 12:11 AM GMT on April 16, 2011
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Severe thunderstorm Threats and more
My Webcam
My Forecasting Area
View comments for updates
Hope everyone is having a great weekend!
Really anxious to receive this weather station that I ordered about 1 week and a half ago. Skies in my area are mainly cloudy but it's warm outside with a temperature of 15C or 60F and I'm certainly gonna go enjoy this fine weather today before wet weather starts to make it's way in tonight and continues tomorrow. (with the possibility of thundershowers but still too early in the season for any chance at witnessing small scale severe thunderstorms, sadly)
Great Lakes storm
As I said 2 days ago a dangerous situation is shaping up for eastern Iowa, Wisconsin and Illinois. I don't have any changes to make. Of course, severe thunderstorms will develop elsewhere in the Midwest in Missouri, Arkansas and southern Minnesota but the greatest risk is within the 3 states mentionned above. Anyone in the area should monitor the weather closely late afternoon and on through the night and this is particularly dangerous because the worst of the storms will occur after 8-9pm local time when a lot people are going to bed getting ready for the week...
Day 1 categorical severe weather risks /// Tornado risks
Hail probabilities /// Wind probabilities
Carbon Dioxide in Atmosphere
This graph is courtesy of NOAA Climate Services and shows levels of Carbon Dioxide in the air in PPM since 1959. I've added a straight line because with the naked-eye you can't really see the slight exponential trend over the decades. I just thought it was interesting to see that levels aren't rising in a linear way but in a very slight, but still significant, exponential way.
Vaisala's National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN)
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Snow Depth
Sea Surface Temperatures
Sea Ice Cover
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Latest Surface Analysis
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The weather is always interesting. - Jesse Ferrell
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Updated: 8:44 PM GMT on April 11, 2011
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Cooler March globally and next storm
My Webcam
My Forecasting Area
Figure 1 shows anomalies for March 2011 released by Remote Sensing Systems. As you can see, above 60 degrees north it was overall much above normal still with the exception of Greenland and Northeastern Canada.
Quote
"March 2011 ended up as the coolest March globally since March of 1994. The actual global temperature anomaly for the lower troposphere last month was negative 0.026 C."
Figure 2 shows what is to be expected in terms of temperatures when the NAO is negative (left) and what was actually observed during the 2010-2011 meteorological winter. (right)
Winter Temperatures Influenced by North Atlantic Oscillation, La Niña
"[...] the persistently negative phase of the NAO was the dominating factor in generating cold, snowy weather in the eastern United States this winter. Not all of the observed temperature patterns can be attributed to the NAO variability, however."
"Scientists believe that weaker than usual “cold signal” was at least partly due to the effects of moderate-to-strong La Niña conditions that appeared in July 2010 and continued into the new year."
"[...] the unusually warm temperatures in Canada were more widespread and intense than would be expected solely from a persistently negative NAO."
In Figure 3 you can see the difference between a positive NAO and a negative NAO. Meteorologists attribute much importance to the NAO in winter since it generally tells us what to expect in terms of temperatures. When the NAO is negative, high pressure dominates high-latitudes and low pressure is observed in the mid-latitudes and the rest is a matter of simple physics where higher pressure will always go towards low pressure.
This 3 part-series is fascinating and is certainly worth a read! In case you missed the link you can go here.
Discussion for the weekend great lakes storm:
A big outbreak of severe storms and tornadoes will occur and if you're in Missouri, Minnesota (southern), Wisconsin, Illinois and Iowa you should monitor the weather closely after supper and through the night Sunday. I also think that Monday for areas of Southern Ontario and the Ohio Valley and probably into western New York strong storms will occur Monday especially in areas where the sun is out.
Temperatures will reach 80F (26C) as far north as Pennsylvania and New York City on Monday.
I'm expecting a high of maybe 65F or around 18C Monday and that is certainly the warmest day so far this year by about 4-5C. I remember back in 2007 when it was over 20C (70F) often in the second half of April but I don't see another chance of getting above 15C for maybe 2 weeks...
In fact, there could actually be snow next weekend (15-16-17)! (very looking forward to it! /sarcasm) The GFS long-range model has been showing a snowstorm for parts of the great lakes for about a week now. This storm will have to be monitored. At this time of year however any snow that does fall will have a hard time accumulating and it is tough to predict where snow will fall/accumulate especially during midday. That is true even one day before the storm arrives.
But before that storm comes along let's focus on the one coming this weekend, it could get quite nasty Sunday night. People who work early Monday will go to bed early Sunday but late Sunday night is when the worst storms will occur, in my opinion, especially Wisconsin, Illinois and Eastern Iowa and even if it means staying up late, at least you'll be prepared should severe weather knock on your doorstep.
Day 3 Categorical /// Probabilistic outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center
Vaisala's National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN)
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Snow Depth
Sea Surface Temperatures
Sea Ice Cover
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Latest Surface Analysis
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The weather is always interesting. - Jesse Ferrell
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Updated: 3:36 AM GMT on April 09, 2011
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All kinds of weather today
My Webcam
My Forecasting Area (This is the area of most interest to me)
Still waiting on this weather station to arrive by mail. My impatience is proving very disadvantageous at the moment ... lol
Blog was way too crowded and unorganized so instead I inserted all of my interesting links in the "recommended links" area of my blog. (Which makes a lot more sense!)
All kinds of weather are happening today. Around Quebec City and especially in the mountains to the northwest of the city it's snowing and quite heavily. In southern Pennsylvania temperatures are in the 70's and underneath a cloud band associated with the warm front temperatures are barely in the 40's and a cold showery rain is falling. Gusty southerly winds ahead of the cold front are also on the table.
There is a Wind Warning for the Richelieu Valley in Southern Quebec but that's the only one for the whole region.
Richelieu Valley - Saint-Hyacinthe
11:20 AM EDT Monday 04 April 2011
Wind warning for
Richelieu Valley - Saint-Hyacinthe continued
Southerly winds gusting to 90 km/h are expected.
A low pressure system over the Great Lakes is moving northeastward and will reach Labrador Tuesday evening. It will produce strong to high winds in the Richelieu Valley later today, and along the north shore of the Gaspé Peninsula between Ste Anne-des-monts and Grande-Vallée overnight tonight.
Meanwhile there are Flood Watches in Central and Western New York. Wind advisories are in effect for the Northern half of Ohio.
AS of 2:00pm EDT Temperatures in Celsius and Advisories
Ohio will probably see strong storms later today and tonight from west to east. Even though it's cloudy, dewpoints are as high as 65F. Nighttime temperatures will be very balmy across the regions as long as you're ahead of the cold front. 11C or 52F expected "low" for me in Montreal tonight! The cold front is pretty much over Chicago at the moment and will continue making it's way east at the day goes by. Heavy rains are also falling and I wouldn't be surprised if some areas in the Midwest, especially northern Ohio get 3 or even 4 inches.
Radar loops for the Midwest and Northeast
The weather is always interesting. - Jesse Ferrell
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Updated: 3:16 AM GMT on April 06, 2011
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Webcam Installed!
Well, just when we thought arctic sea ice extent reached it's maximum it has not. (see map near the end of this blog) Maybe it has but it's been on the rise since mid-March but of course the ice will start to melt very soon... Compared to last year at the same date it is quite low.
Webcam
Edit: On second thought, I think I'll just leave the normal daytime settings for the webcam because there really isn't anything to see at night.
You can now see what I see through my bedroom window. The webcam is very old (acquired it in 2004-2005) so the quality is downright ugly but it's better than nothing right! At night, you won't see much and I have to play with the controls when the sun sets to have a better view or else it's just black and coincidentally, I must decrease the brightness in the morning because all you see is white... so on some days I won't be able to always do this because I have things to do too and it might take a while before you get to see something.
I still think it's kinda neat.
Here, have a look. The white box is where my thermometer is presently, it is facing north so that it receives no sunlight and I painted it white to deflect as much sun energy as possible but it still shows a reading of 3-4 more degrees Celsius than what the actual temperature when it's completely in the sun. I am waiting for a new and much improved weather station however... :)
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INTERESTING LINKS AND GRAPHS
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INTERACTIVE NORTH AMERICAN RADAR AND SATELLITE ANIMATION
EXTREME ICE SURVEY
NOAA CLIMATE SERVICES
OCEAN ACIDIFICATION
NATIONAL SNOW AND ICE DATA CENTER
CANADIAN CLIMATE DATA
WORLD OZONE MONITORING AND MAPPING
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Forecasting Area
The weather is always interesting. - Jesse Ferrell
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Updated: 2:37 AM GMT on April 04, 2011
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Great Lakes storm tomorrow through Tuesday
1:30pm EDT UPDATE
It looks like much of Ohio, except for northwestern regions will see a squall line moving in late Monday night but when it starts making it's way into Pennsylvania the front will start to die-off.
You can see how the NAM's simulated radar for 8h00pm EDT Monday interprets this advancing cold front. Thunderstorms will be lining up in Missouri and Illinois into a very heavy squall line developing and moving east and southeast.
The NAM does have a tendency to underestimate things however. It looks a lot heavier on the GFS and the Canadian.
You can bet I'll be here Monday night because severe weather outbreaks always ignite a spark within me!
UPDATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
I just ordered this weather station from the internet and I am really excited! It looks fantastic and I'm extremely anxious to install it and start collecting data. The one I have at the moment lacks a function to transmit data on my computer. I can't wait to get it!!!! I'll put it up on WU as soon as I get it.
ORIGINAL
Hope everyone is having a great weekend! The weather is stunning in my area with temperatures around 10-11C (50-52F) which is a couple of degrees Celsius above normal. Will certainly take it... fine weather to start biking on the beautiful bicycle paths in my particular area.
So much beautiful that they have been ranked Number 1 in the world. (not completely in English)
"The prestigious National Geographic travel guide, Journeys of a Lifetime: 500 of the World’s Greatest Trips, cataloging the most fabulous trips of our dreams, ranks the "Route Verte" first in the top 10 bike routes on the planet, chosen for their beauty, length and excitement.
Located in North America, the "Route Verte" criss-crosses Québec from north to south and east to west, lining up more than 4,000 kilometres of biking explorations [...]"
The weather will be splendid up to tomorrow night when precipitation associated with an advancing warm front starts to make it's way in. Southwestern Michigan is included in the slight risk on day 2 from the Storm Prediction Center. And the whole state of Ohio on day 3. Large hail and strong winds up to 60mph or 100kph are possible in thunderstorms for these areas.
Day 2
Day 3
As for the rest of the area (see map below) this storm will only cause rain and some brisk west to northwest winds once this storm moves out starting Tuesday morning. Ahead of the cold front it will be warm with temperatures in the 60's and 70's. Areas in southern Pennsylvania will probably see quite a bit of sun and that should send temperatures flying to the low 70's with possibly strong storms later in the day Monday.
INTERESTING LINKS AND GRAPHS
INTERACTIVE NORTH AMERICAN RADAR AND SATELLITE ANIMATION
EXTREME ICE SURVEY
NOAA CLIMATE SERVICES
OCEAN ACIDIFICATION
NATIONAL SNOW AND ICE DATA CENTER
CANADIAN CLIMATE DATA
WORLD OZONE MONITORING AND MAPPING
Forecasting Area
The weather is always interesting. - Jesse Ferrell
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Updated: 6:00 PM GMT on April 03, 2011
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How global warming is affecting Calgary, Alberta
Please scroll down for Part 3 of a series of 5 on the effects of Global Warming at select cities and communities far and wide apart across Canada.
Eastern Canada snowstorm
The snowstorm has been acting pretty much the way I thought it was going to. Precipitation was on the sporadic side however over pennsylvania and New York where I thought it was going to be a little more persistent. There is a heavy band of snow and rain across New Brunswick and Nova Scotia but it's quickly moving North so amounts should be limited. I will post amounts for Canadian provinces as soon as they come out.
The storm is not as impressive as I thought but still quite cold for April standards since it is snowing during midday at several locales. With the NAO is still forecast to go positive by mid-April and coincidentally, the PNA is going negative after this odd snowstorm temperatures are going to moderate and gradually climb to above normal ahead of a system moving across the northern US plains as we get into midweek. This is a much warmer storm and will produce almost no snow. Snow will fall in the Rockies and the southern Canadian Prairies as the storm tracks east early next week. This storm could cause a lot of severe weather in the Mississippi and Tennessee valleys and areas impacted might be quite extensive.
As far as my forecasting area goes which includes Michigan, Ohio and everything to the northeast all the way to the Canadian Maritimes (see map at the bottom of this blog) I will wait 1-2 days before deciding anything.
I like this link because it is interactive and it shows Canadian AND American Radar and is the only site so far that I have found with both on the same map.
Interactive North American Radar and Satellite
Alright now let's talk about the warming in Calgary, Alberta...... (ironically heavy snow is forecast for Saturday from Environment Canada and a winter storm warning is in effect)
Calgary, Alberta
click for a much larger image.
With the high plains of the United States to the south, the Rockie Mountains just to the west and the doors to the arctic to the north this city experiences extreme temperature fluctuations all- year round. Warm and dry Chinook winds have been know to increase temperatures by several tens of degrees Fahrenheit over the course of an hour in the winter months.
Daily normals for January are around -9C(16F) and around 16C(61F) in July. January average Highs are a not so cold -3C(27F) but average lows are a very cold -15C(5F) and in July, highs are normally around 23C(73F) but lows are closer to a chilly 9C(48F). This region has a semi-arid climate with 420mm (16.5 inches) of average rainfall per year but violent thunderstorms are not uncommon in the Canadian Prairies. Violent supercells capable of producing extreme Hail of more than 2 inches in diameter and powerful tornadoes happen every year. Although, from data I have collected, the last couple of decades have clearly shown how less extreme the weather is becoming; in terms of differences in temperature.
All-time record low: -45C or -49F on the 4th of February in 1893
All-time record High: 36.1C or 97F on the 15th of July in 1919
Figure shows the steady warming taking place since record keeping measurements began in 1885. A graph which I have made myself.
Trends per decade
January high +0.28C, low +0.28C
February high +0.34C, low +0.39C
March high +0.12C, low +0.24C
April high -0.11C, low +0.06C
May high -0.1C, low +0.1C
June high -0.09C, low +0.14C
July high -0.1C, low +0.16C
August high -0.06C, low +0.16C
September high -0.01C, low +0.13C
October high -0.08C, low +0.03C
November high +0.02C, low +0.06C
December high +0.01C, low -0.11C
Overall +0.08C
Overall Minimum: +0.14C
Overall Maximum: +0.02C
As you can see overall minimum temperatures are trending much warmer than maximum temperatures which shows how less extreme the climate is becoming as the decades go by and certainly is a direct consequence of global warming. Winters up north are becoming significantly warmer and that is having adverse effects all over the world.
Part 4 of my 5-part series will focus on the northern community of Coral Harbour located on Southampton Island on the northern edge of Hudson Bay in the province of Nunavut. This one will be published in a week or later.
Coral Harbour, Nunavut
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Forecasting Area
"The weather is always interesting." - Jesse Ferrell
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Updated: 4:27 AM GMT on April 02, 2011
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