Professional Forecaster experience since 1977, concentrating in Aviation, Tropical and Long Range forecasting.
By: Steve Gregory, 4:45 PM GMT on September 02, 2014
MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM DOLLY 180 MILES FROM MEXICAN COAST
INVEST 99L spun up to Depression #5 yesterday afternoon (based on RECON reports and as I reported at 1:20PM CDT) but not made officially by NHC until 3 hrs. later). Then, by the 5AM Update this AM, NHC upgraded TD#5 to Tropical Storm DOLLY with MAX sustained surface winds near 40Kts. DOLLY, now located 175NM ENE of Tampico, MX, near 23.2°N/93.2°W is moving NW at 11Kt, and the last RECON report...
Updated: 7:39 PM GMT on September 02, 2014
By: Steve Gregory, 4:31 PM GMT on September 01, 2014
INVEST 99L NO THREAT TO U.S.
SPECIAL UPDATE: 18:20Z: RECON DATA SUPPORTS UPGRADE OF 99L TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION - WITH A FEW WIND REPORTS INDICATING PSBL THRESHOLD HAS BEEN REACHED TO NAME STORM. POSITION IS 19.6N/93.0W
INVEST 99L is near the western Yucatan coast (NHC still shows it inland near the coast – but my own surface chart analysis shows the system developing off the coast – so lets just call it a very broad low level circu...
Updated: 6:29 PM GMT on September 01, 2014
By: Steve Gregory, 4:04 PM GMT on August 31, 2014
INVEST 99L NEAR YUCATAN - NO THREAT TO U.S.
INVEST 99L with a possible center of rotation near the northern Belize coast, is moving W/NW (300°) at 13Kts, slowing from its 20Kt forward motion just 24 hrs ago. The disturbance should slow further during the next 24-48 hrs as it crosses the Yucatan and emerges in the Bay of Campeche on Monday.
While wind shear remains marginally favorable for development at around 15Kts, with more than adequate...
Updated: 4:40 PM GMT on September 01, 2014
By: Steve Gregory, 6:54 PM GMT on August 30, 2014
A couple days ago,, we had what was, INVEST 97L moving into the far eastern CARIB, along with a relatively small T.W. moving westward along the northern coast of South America towards the southern Caribbean to the east of Costa Rica and Nicaragua. (These smaller scale waves are typically spawned at irregular intervals within the northern edges of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)).
By yesterday, with what was 97L just so...
Updated: 8:45 PM GMT on August 30, 2014
By: Steve Gregory, 5:11 PM GMT on August 28, 2014
INVEST 98L – NO THREAT
A weak and broad surface Low pressure system is centered about 120NM east of Brownsville, TX, and is drifting W/SW at about 5Kts. As occurred yesterday morning, there’s been another early morning burst of convection near and to the northeast of the Low itself. This system originated in the NW GOM at the ‘tail end’ of a very strong mid-level Dry Line that surged south/southwest from the SE US across Florida and into the n...
Updated: 5:29 PM GMT on August 29, 2014