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Last Updated: 2:59 AM GMT on November 08, 2009
— Last Comment: 3:05 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
Good evening,
IDA still appears to be holding her own. NHC 10:00 P.M. ADVISORY 10:00 PM EST Sat Nov 7 Location: 20.1°N 84.6°W Max sustained: 70 mph Moving: NNW at 12 mph Min pressure: 990 mb Recent satellite loop imagery shows her elongated somewhat in a basic W-E fashion. IDA is undergoing some effects of wind shear from the SW at about 25 kts. This is most likely keeping her in check at the moment, albeit the diffluent flow aloft is aiding somewhat in ventialtion. I believe if we are going to see any further strengthening, it will be within the next 12 hours, as she has made it to the point of where the greatest TCHP is located. IDA FLOATER LOOP  Based on the most recent wind shear tendency map from CIMSS, Wind Shear has supposeldy been on the decrease. I must say though, the CMC wind shear forecast map has handled the shear better thus far. Given the wind shear forecast maps (blend), the upper level environment MAY become slightly more conducive, and IDA could increase in strength slightly, or maintain her current strength through the next 24-36 hours.   Based on the current 10:00 p.m. update, and in line with my thinking, she may become a CAT1 for a brief time. I basically concur with the NHC forecast track, albeit I still feel the track will be mor left for a very short time, before making the turn to the north.  Here is going to be the key to where she comes ashore: A FASTER SYSTEM as shown on NHC track, then landfall will most likely occur close to NHC official track. A SLOWER SYSTEM...then based on the current forecast steering layers maps, I would expect a sharper turn toward the NE-ENE, having more of an affect closer to the Big Bend to Tampa area. IRT the HYBRID in the BOC...While the possibility of the two systems merging does exist, looking at my current analysis of various parameters, I feel the HYBRID has a better chance right now of being steered ahead of IDA. I will be out all day tomorrow, but will try to update late tomorrow evening. I STILL RECOMMEND RESIDENTS ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM MS to Tampa,FL. closely monitor the progress of IDA. "Storm"
Good day to all!IDA has regained Tropical Storm strength, as posted in my forecast yesterday. As of the 10:00 a.m. advisory from the NHC, the following information was posted:10:00 AM EST Sat Nov 7Location: 17.9°N 84.1°WMax sustained: 60 mphMoving: N at 9 mphMin pressure: 997 mb / 29.44 inIDA has stalled somewhat, but based on the current forecast steering layers maps from PSU e-WALL site, and current Water Vapor Loop imagery, IDA should shortly pick up a tempora...
Good evening!Ida re-enters the Caribbean.Tropical Depression IDA has re-entered the Caribbean Sea.As of the 4:00 P.M. EST Advisory from the NHC, the following information was posted:4:00 PM EST Fri Nov 6Location: 15.7°N 83.9°WMax sustained: 35 mphMoving: N at 8 mphMin pressure: 1007 mb / 29.74 in.IDA is still moving slowly to just east of north (based on Shortwave IR imagery), and I expect this motion to continue for only the next 2-4 hours, with a turn more to th...
Greetings,Looks like the 2009 hurricane season is going out with a bang.First up...Tropical Depression IDA.Tropical Depression IDA continues to be located over or just north of the Nicaragua/Honduran border. She is presently moving slowly to the north, which is confirmed on satellite loop imagery this afternoon.The following information was posted by the NHC on their 10:00 A.M. EST Advisory:10:00 AM EST Fri Nov 6Location: 15.0°N 84.0°WMax sustained: 35 mphMoving:...
Good morning!I must say, I am rather impressed with this system, seeings how there is a lack of substantial TCHP in the area.As of 7:00 a.m. EST, IDA was upgraded to a CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. The following was posted by the NHC on their Intermediate Advisory:7:00 AM EST Thu Nov 5Location: 12.8°N 83.4°WMax sustained: 75 mphMoving: NW at 7 mphMin pressure: 987 mb / 29.15 inThe hurricane is displaying an excellent CDO and banding at the mom...
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