TampaSpin's Tropical Blog

Last Updated: 12:27 PM GMT on September 07, 2008 — Last Comment: 5:23 PM GMT on September 07, 2008

	HANNA EXITS WHILE IKE IS A CAT. 4 AND COMING!!!!!

Posted by: TampaSpin, 12:27 PM GMT on September 07, 2008

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Had to do this one since nearly every NFL stadium will play this just before kickoff today.....lol...sorry.

ALL GRAPHICS, SATELLITE PICS, STEERING AND MODEL MAPS UPDATE CONSTANTLY AUTOMATICALLY SO COME BACK TO REVIEW THESE GRAPHICS..

LINK to the NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NHC 48HR development Potential....

NAM Model 60Hrs

GOES Floater Imagery – 30 minute updates with lots of views

Atlantic Floater 1 Link
JOSEPHINE ACTIVE

Atlantic Floater 2 Link
HANNA ACTIVE

Atlantic Floater 3 Link
NOT ACTIVE

Atlantic Floater 4 Link
IKE ACTIVE

Weather Calculator Link...Weather Calculator Link

LINK to the NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

Link to my favorite Satellite loop!

GFS LONG RANGE MODEL

Forecast Models

WINDSHEAR 4 DAY FORECAST

National Weather Service River Report Flooding

2008 Named Storms:
Arthur, Bertha,Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gustav, Hanna, Ike, Josephine,

Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paloma, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred

IN SIMPLE TERMS:This update will consist of Hanna, IKE, and JOSEPHINE.

HANNA:
IN SIMPLE TERMS:---This is the latest on Hanna from NHC:

National Hurricane Center Current Forecast Discussion Link for HANNA

National Hurricane Center Current Public Advisory Link for HANNA

Hanna is still a Tropical Storm and is about to exit the ConUS and on its way to Nova Scotia. This is my last update of Hanna as she makes her way to the British Isles.

Remember the National Hurricane Center are the Professionals and release complete updates at 11 and 5 on the hour and partial updates at 2 and 8 on the hour.

HANNA

HANNA Floater 2

IKE:
IN SIMPLE TERMS:---Here is the latest on IKE from NHC:

National Hurricane Center Current Forecast Discussion Link for IKE

National Hurricane Center Current Public Advisory Link for IKE

IKE is now a CAT. 4 Hurricane with winds at at 135mph with pressure at 948mb moving nearly due WSW at 15mph. Ike is moving still on the SE side of Bermuda/Azores High as it builds WEST as IKE moves WEST. Although, IKE is stronger, i would still use Steering Layer 300-850mb or 950-969mb pressure 90-112kt storms, as the map to watch for guidiance. I looked at all the major models and a better understanding is coming. Nearly all Models do not see IKE hitting South Florida except the possibly the KEYS. All MODELS have IKE interacting with Cuba for nearly 2 days except the GFDL model which keeps IKE off shore longer and parralleling Cuba longer to the North. All models take IKE into the GOM with aim toward Louisiana to Alabama. The CMC has IKE hitting the Miss/Alabama line. The NGP model has IKE hitting the Louisiana/Miss line. The GFDL, GFS, and AWRF models have IKE nearing the Louisiana coast. I believe this is all about timing. If IKE gets to these positions on time then the above areas will be affected. If IKE slows and is slow arriving then this will allow a high to build overhead again and a more WEST track toward Texas will be coming. If IKE arrives a little earlier than predicted then a track just a little EAST might happen. Right now i would have to suggest that somewhere from Louisiana to Alabama will fell the full strength of IKE. One thing i must mention is the GFDL model is trending North this morning after getting the key information inputted by the G-4. So, Southern Florida needs to pay very close attention to this today if this trend continues with other models.

Now, how strong will IKE be is a big concern. This is just to difficult to currently say. But one thing is for certain, if IKE stays over Cuba those mountains will certainly disrupt IKE and if IKE does not hit Cuba and enters the GOM this intact and hits the GULF stream, he will become a CAT.5 very quickly. If IKE stays over Cuba for 2 days, he will be a very weak Hurricane and would still have time to approach a CAT.3 before its next landfall. I'm not wishcasting this on nobody but, IKE will hit somewhere in the ConUS it appears as a MAJOR HURRICANE. This will be a very dangerous Hurricane and must be monitored nearly every model is now putting a track into the GOM. Those living in the possible path of IKE in the Bahamas and Florida and along the GULF Coast should monitor his progress of IKE very close.

The Florida KEYs have is under a mandatory evacuation. If you are in the KEYS, please take this advice and leave or you will stand a chance of not surviving this very Dangerous Storm. Storm Surge could approach as high as 15 ft. That surge will overcome every part of the KEYS under water. GET OUT!!
Other evacuations may be coming if IKE move North some. Here is a link to local governments statements and warnings..... Local Governmnet Statement and Warnings Link

Remember the National Hurricane Center are the Professionals and release complete updates at 11 and 5 on the hour and partial updates at 2 and 8 on the hour.

Rather than post pics that won't update, here is a link that you can use to see the primary models....MODEL Link

IKE

IKE FLOATER 4

JOSEPHINE:
IN SIMPLE TERMS:---Here is the latest on Josephine from NHC:

National Hurricane Center Current Forecast Discussion Link for JOSEPHINE

National Hurricane Center Current Public Advisory Link for JOSEPHINE

Josephine is no longer titled as such. But, i will not rule out the possibility of Josephine making a come back as she has had some return convection. I am going to leave the floaters up just in case.

Remember the National Hurricane Center are the Professionals and release complete updates at 11 and 5 on the hour and partial updates at 2 and 8 on the hour.

JOSEPHINE

JOSEPHINE FLOATER 1

OTHER INTEREST:
IN SIMPLE TERMS:---One thing of note is an area approching the southern islands as you can see that on the Vorticity Map. There is nothing else that needs any immediate attention of any concern that i see, although more will be coming!!!

I really appreciate the great comments you all leave. I try to always reply back if you leave a question or a REQUEST. And please leave comments on the Blog good or bad as all are welcome.

I will post again tomorrow morning! Keep in mind everything stays current on my blog except my input.

Thanks,

Tim...

ALL GRAPHICS, SATELLITE PICS, STEERING AND MODEL MAPS UPDATE CONSTANTLY AUTOMATICALLY SO COME BACK TO REVIEW THESE GRAPHICS..

Steering Layer 700-850mb or
1000mb pressure 45kt storms