16-yr-old weather aficionado, with primary focus on tropical cyclones. High school and college student, working towards the National Hurricane Center.
By: TropicalAnalystwx13 , 1:50 PM GMT on June 11, 2011
After peaking as a 140 mph/946 mb. Category 4 hurricane, Adrian is on the rapid decline in intensity this morning. I will be the first to say, my forecast went horribly, horribly gone on guessing what Adrian would peak as. My forecast from two/three days ago called for a peak as a 115 mph Category 3 hurricane, because of very dry air to his north and northwest. However, when Adrian strengthened very quickly, he was able to build up his eye-wall to keep all dry air out. For a time on Thursday, I thought my forecast would come true. Dry air was getting into the eye-wall, and the northern part of it was being disrupted. However, Adrian forced the dry air out, built its eye-wall, and began strengthening once again. That is all in the past now, and we still have to focus on the storm, which is now only a borderline Category 1 hurricane, with 75 mph winds, and a minimum central pressure of 988 mb. Water Vapor satellite loops reveal that there is a large amount of dry air surrounding Adrian, which is pretty much evaporating the outer bands of the hurricane. Helping kill Adrian is sea surface temperatures, which were 30 °C the past few days. But now, Adrian is entering an area of cooler waters, barely 26 °C, which is what's needed to support tropical cyclones.
Forecast for Adrian
Given the hurricanes satellite appearance and unfavorable environment, Adrian is not going to last much longer. I'll give it to the next advisory to be a hurricane, but after that, weakening into a tropical storm is expected. With Adrian being an annular hurricane, I would have expected the storm to last longer, since annular hurricanes usually can sustain themselves longer in an unfavorable environment which would otherwise destroy a regular storm. CIMSS Tropical Cyclones show that wind shear is a moderate 10-20 knots, but is expected to increase as the storm heads west, then northwest. I will say though, it is impressive having a Category 4 hurricane for the "A" storm in the Pacific, the last this occurred was a decade ago, 2001's Hurricane Adolph, which reached 145 mph. The last time a major hurricane was recorded as an "A" storm in the Pacific, was just a year later, with 2002's Hurricane Alma. Here is my forecast for Adrian in 12-hr intervals:
Current: 75 mph/988 mb.
12-hr: 50 mph/TS
24-hr: 35 mph/TD
36-hr: Remnant Low
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