16-yr-old weather aficionado, with primary focus on tropical cyclones. High school and college student, working towards the National Hurricane Center.
By: TropicalAnalystwx13 , 1:19 AM GMT on May 25, 2012
Hurricane Bud, the first hurricane of the 2012 Pacific hurricane season, is very nearly a major hurricane (if it isn't already one) this evening. Satellite imagery reveals a ring of cold cloud tops in excess of -70 °C surrounding a well-defined eye feature that has been partly cloudy for most of the day. The latest National Hurricane Center advisory listed Bud as a 110 mph Category 2 hurricane, just one mile per hour short of major hurricane status. However, according to the latest ATCF file update, Bud has winds of 115 mph. The minimum barometric pressure as reported by recon earlier this afternoon was 962 millibars, and the system was moving towards the northeast at 9 mph in response to a trough in the Midwest USA. This puts Bud on a track right towards the Mexican coastline.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the coast of Mexico from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the coast of Mexico from Punta San Telmo to east of Manzanillo.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of Mexico from Punta San Telmo to east of Manzanillo, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the coast of Mexico from Cabo Corrientes to San Blas.
Figure 1. Afternoon visible satellite imagery of Hurricane Bud.
The forecast for Bud
As aforementioned, Bud has began the forecast northeast turn towards the coast of Mexico in response to a strong trough across the Midwest USA. A track towards the northeast is expected to continue for the next 2 days, which should send Bud into the Mexican coastline during the afternoon tomorrow. Thankfully, a sharp increase in dry air and a sharp decline in Sea Surface Temperatures should act to weaken Bud substantially by landfall; right now, the NHC is forecasting a Category 1 hit. Regardless of the strength, very heavy rainfall and gusty winds should be expected along the Mexican coastline. Afterwards, a ridge of high pressure is expected to build across the East USA. This should act to send Bud back into the East Pacific waters, though as a significantly weaker system. In fact, it is possible that Bud could emerge as a tropical depression and dissipate into a remnant low thereafter. Regeneration is not expected.
INIT 25/0000Z 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
48H 27/0000Z 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 28/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 29/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0000Z 20 KT 25 MPH...DISSIPATED
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