Tropicsweatherpr's WunderBlog

CSU forecast

Posted by: Tropicsweatherpr, 2:55 PM GMT on April 04, 2012

I am creating this blog for all to make comments about this April CSU forecast of 10/4/2. This blog will also have the June,August forecasts,and the 15 day ones too. I am sure that Dr Masters will talk about it,but I know that many times,that blog deviates to other themes not related. Here is one topic only,so what do all think of what they are forecasting?

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1. nigel20 4:17 PM GMT on April 04, 2012
Thanks for the link Tropicsweatherpr. I think those numbers are more dependent on a moderate to strong el nino....wether or not we will see a moderate or strong el nino is yet to be seen Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4888

2. Tropicsweatherpr 5:17 PM GMT on April 04, 2012
Quoting nigel20: Thanks for the link Tropicsweatherpr. I think those numbers are more dependent on a moderate to strong el nino....wether or not we will see a moderate or strong el nino is yet to be seen I also agree with what you said. Let's see what occurs eventually with ENSO in the next few weeks. Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 67 Comments: 8780

3. Tropicsweatherpr 5:27 PM GMT on April 04, 2012
From CSU forecast: For Puerto Rico, the probability of a Tropical Storm passing within 50 miles is 26%,a Hurricane is 12% and a Major Hurricane is 4%. I will take it,but wont be complacient at all. Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 67 Comments: 8780

4. nigel20 5:28 PM GMT on April 04, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr: I also agree with what you said. Let's see what occurs eventually with ENSO in the next few weeks. Over the next two to three weeks we will have a better forecast of what will occur during the hurricane season Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4888

5. Doppler22 10:33 PM GMT on April 04, 2012
Thanks for the link Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 1473

6. hydrus 10:37 PM GMT on April 04, 2012
I said to you earlier that I generally wait until May to put numbers out there. But as of right now, I believe it is a little underdone, even though odds favor a slow season. I think there will be a lot of local activity. The waters of the Eastern Seaboard, the Gulf of Mexico and the western half of the Caribbean. Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14695

7. TropicalAnalystwx13 11:04 PM GMT on April 04, 2012
I think CSU has pretty much gotten it nailed, a weak El Niño with normal to below normal activity. If we were to get a moderate/strong El Nino, these numbers would have to be lower. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 92 Comments: 25961

8. Tropicsweatherpr 11:30 PM GMT on April 04, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: I think CSU has pretty much gotten it nailed, a weak El Niño with normal to below normal activity. If we were to get a moderate/strong El Nino, these numbers would have to be lower. Agree 100% with that. The key will be ENSO and second,how will the sst's be in Atlantic during the peak of the season. Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 67 Comments: 8780

9. nigel20 11:31 PM GMT on April 04, 2012
Quoting hydrus: I said to you earlier that I generally wait until May to put numbers out there. But as of right now, I believe it is a little underdone, even though odds favor a slow season. I think there will be a lot of local activity. The waters of the Eastern Seaboard, the Gulf of Mexico and the western half of the Caribbean. I have to agree with you there hydrus Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4888

10. Tropicsweatherpr 1:23 AM GMT on May 04, 2012
What will they do when they release the June 1rst outlook? Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 67 Comments: 8780

11. Tropicsweatherpr 1:58 AM GMT on May 04, 2012
Will CSU up their numbers by one or two on the June 1rst outlook? Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 67 Comments: 8780

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I am a tropical weather enthusiastic as I live on hurricane alley.

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