ENSO Updates

By: Tropicsweatherpr , 2:48 AM GMT on April 09, 2012

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This blog will be entierly dedicated to post all the updates for ENSO.Any member can post comments about the updates for this very important factor.





















NCEP CFSv2:





All ENSO Models plume:




ECMWF EUROSIP Multimodel:



Australian Model POAMA

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ECMWF Model






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60. Tropicsweatherpr
12:24 AM GMT on November 20, 2012
Nino 3.4 went up to 0.5C after being at 0.4C last week.

Link

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13339
59. Tropicsweatherpr
9:39 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
The 8/13/12 CPC update is more warmer at Nino 3.4 as it is up to +0.8C.

Link

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13339
58. Tropicsweatherpr
2:27 AM GMT on August 07, 2012
The 8/6/12 CPC update has Nino 3.4 at the same value as last weeks update,+0.6C.

Link

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13339
57. Tropicsweatherpr
3:10 AM GMT on July 31, 2012
The CPC update of 7/30/12 has Nino 3.4 up to 0.6C.

Link

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13339
56. Tropicsweatherpr
3:01 PM GMT on July 23, 2012
The 7/23/12 CPC update warms Nino 3.4 up to +0.5C.

Link

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13339
55. Tropicsweatherpr
11:32 AM GMT on July 22, 2012
The 14 positive uptick of the daily SOI is over for now.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13339
54. Tropicsweatherpr
8:34 PM GMT on July 20, 2012
The majority of the ENSO Models on the MId-July update are at Weak El Nino by ASO.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13339
53. Tropicsweatherpr
11:27 PM GMT on July 16, 2012
The 7/16/12 CPC update has Nino 3.4 down to +0.4C.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13339
52. Tropicsweatherpr
7:28 PM GMT on July 09, 2012
The 7/9/12 CPC update has Nino 3.4 down to +0.5C,a tad cooler than last week's update.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13339
51. Tropicsweatherpr
1:26 PM GMT on July 07, 2012
This is the July update by CPC and is not good news who want to track many systems in the Atlantic,but on the other hand will be a bonanza for the EPAC followers.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13339
50. Tropicsweatherpr
3:00 PM GMT on July 04, 2012
And Mondays CPC update that I forgot to post on this blog surpass El Nino line of +0.5C. The only question left is how strong it will be.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13339
49. Tropicsweatherpr
11:36 PM GMT on July 01, 2012
Let's see what Mondays CPC update has to see if Nino 3.4 reached the +0.5C El Nino threshold or not.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13339
48. Tropicsweatherpr
2:08 AM GMT on July 01, 2012
Tonight is down to-10.4.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13339
47. Tropicsweatherpr
3:55 PM GMT on June 29, 2012
The 30 day SOI index continues to go down (-13.1)
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13339
46. Tropicsweatherpr
2:05 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
The CPC update of 6/25/12 has Nino 3.4 up to +0.4C shy of the +0.5C of El Nino.



Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13339
45. Tropicsweatherpr
8:33 PM GMT on June 24, 2012
The Mid-June update by the ENSO Models are on the majority with El Nino.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13339
44. Tropicsweatherpr
8:32 PM GMT on June 24, 2012
It looks like El Nino is more closer than ever before as all the data indicates that.



The SOI continues to go down.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13339
43. Tropicsweatherpr
8:33 PM GMT on May 17, 2012
The May update of the models has Weak El Nino by August,September and October.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13339
42. Tropicsweatherpr
7:15 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
Here is the Climate Prediction Center update of 5/14/12.

Nino 3.4 warmed slightly to 0.0C.

Link

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13339
41. nigel20
12:34 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
May 14, 2012

Daily SOI: 14.57
30 day average: 5.43
Link
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 7483
40. Tropicsweatherpr
2:41 AM GMT on May 13, 2012
Quoting nigel20:

The daily SOI for today is 12.50


And it continues to go up,now at +4.9.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13339
39. nigel20
12:01 AM GMT on May 13, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The 30 day SOI continues to rise and now is at +4.7.


The daily SOI for today is 12.50
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 7483
38. Tropicsweatherpr
1:51 AM GMT on May 12, 2012
The 30 day SOI continues to rise and now is at +4.7.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13339
37. Tropicsweatherpr
1:03 AM GMT on May 09, 2012
And it continues to rise.



Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13339
36. nigel20
4:40 PM GMT on May 08, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The 30 day SOI index has turned positive and this uptick move has been solid as it was around the -8 area.


This is. A very interesting upward swing, it could be temporary, but if the SOI stays positive for a prolong period...then I think an early el nino would be out of the question
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 7483
35. Tropicsweatherpr
12:41 AM GMT on May 08, 2012
The 30 day SOI index has turned positive and this uptick move has been solid as it was around the -8 area.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13339
34. Tropicsweatherpr
8:25 PM GMT on May 07, 2012
CPC's 5/7/12 update has Nino 3.4 the same reading as last week's update (-0.1C)

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13339
33. Tropicsweatherpr
8:47 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
Here is the early May graphic of the probabilities of La Nina,Neutral and El Nino.



Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13339
32. nigel20
8:12 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Yes,is very interesting what they say about the timing of Neutral hanging on thru all Summer. We will see what occurs in the next few months with ENSO.

Agreed
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 7483
31. Tropicsweatherpr
7:43 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
Quoting nigel20:
What's up tropics? The Climate Prediction Center is predicting ENSO neutral conditions through the northern hemisphere's summer
Link


Yes,is very interesting what they say about the timing of Neutral hanging on thru all Summer. We will see what occurs in the next few months with ENSO.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13339
30. nigel20
3:41 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
What's up tropics? The Climate Prediction Center is predicting ENSO neutral conditions through the northern hemisphere's summer
Link
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 7483
29. Tropicsweatherpr
1:09 AM GMT on May 01, 2012
The 30 day SOI index shows it going up and down between -6 and -8.


Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13339
28. Tropicsweatherpr
7:11 PM GMT on April 30, 2012
CPC update of 4/30/12. Nino 3.4 warmed up to -0.1C,and that is up from -0.4C that was last week.

Link

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13339
27. nigel20
3:13 PM GMT on April 30, 2012
Good morning Tropics...the central Caribbean SST's are below normal, but they may warm up over the next week or so, as the NAO seems to be go negative


Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 7483
26. Tropicsweatherpr
5:17 PM GMT on April 24, 2012
Here is the Australians with their update.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13339
25. nigel20
4:50 PM GMT on April 24, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


The recent Kelvin Wave didn't warm enough the Pacific. Let's see if the next one is more strong and warms to El Nino thresholds.

Agreed
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 7483
24. Tropicsweatherpr
3:22 PM GMT on April 23, 2012
Quoting nigel20:

I've notice that you can see the difference on the SST Anomaly chart


The recent Kelvin Wave didn't warm enough the Pacific. Let's see if the next one is more strong and warms to El Nino thresholds.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13339
23. nigel20
2:51 PM GMT on April 23, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Here is the Climate Prediction Center 4/23/12 update. It shows some cooling at Nino 3.4 down to -0.4C,and that is down from -0.3C that was last week.Also,the other areas cooled down too with Nin o 1+2 down to +1.5C,and that is down from +1.9C that was last week.

Link


I've notice that you can see the difference on the SST Anomaly chart
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 7483
22. Tropicsweatherpr
2:34 PM GMT on April 23, 2012
Here is the Climate Prediction Center 4/23/12 update. It shows some cooling at Nino 3.4 down to -0.4C,and that is down from -0.3C that was last week.Also,the other areas cooled down too with Nin o 1+2 down to +1.5C,and that is down from +1.9C that was last week.

Link

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13339
21. Tropicsweatherpr
3:23 AM GMT on April 23, 2012
Agreed with both above on the no Strong El Nino scenario.Let's see what occurs in the next few weeks to see in reallity how the Pacific behaves.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13339
20. MAweatherboy1
2:57 PM GMT on April 22, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Here is the EUROSIP run of April and it has Moderate to Strong El Nino by August,September and October. IMO,I dont think El Nino will be that strong.


I don't either... I'll be rooting for that one that has La Nina in September
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 7304
19. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:23 PM GMT on April 22, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Here is the EUROSIP run of April and it has Moderate to Strong El Nino by August,September and October. IMO,I dont think El Nino will be that strong.


I think we'll peak around 0.6 °C in September and then gradually fall back afterwards. No strong El Niño like being indicated in my opinion.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30297
18. Tropicsweatherpr
2:10 PM GMT on April 22, 2012
Here is the EUROSIP run of April and it has Moderate to Strong El Nino by August,September and October. IMO,I dont think El Nino will be that strong.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13339
17. Tropicsweatherpr
1:12 AM GMT on April 22, 2012
The 30 day SOI index has gone up in the last two days (from +8.0 down to +7.0.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13339
16. nigel20
3:46 AM GMT on April 21, 2012
I think we see warm/neutral to weak el nino conditions as i've said before
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 7483
15. Tropicsweatherpr
9:42 PM GMT on April 20, 2012
The Mid-April update of the ENSO Models show only a handfull of them above the Moderate El Nino threshold of +1.0C. The majority of them stay between warm neutral and Weak El Nino.





Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13339
14. Tropicsweatherpr
3:19 AM GMT on April 17, 2012
Quoting nigel20:
Whats up TWpr? The SOI is plummeting with no sign of going positive anytime soon


That is right. It looks like El Nino wants to come more earlier than expected,but we will see in reallity,what will occur.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13339
13. nigel20
3:12 AM GMT on April 17, 2012
Whats up TWpr? The SOI is plummeting with no sign of going positive anytime soon
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 7483
12. Tropicsweatherpr
11:59 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
CPC 4/16/12 update has Nino 3.4 at -0.3C, and that is the same as last week's update. Also,Nino 1-2 warms up to +1.9C.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13339
11. nigel20
1:02 AM GMT on April 16, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The April forecast by ECMWF is up and has a big spread as time goes ahead. Let's see when the next three month come out,how it does.


yeah, that's quite a spread
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 7483
10. Tropicsweatherpr
2:27 PM GMT on April 15, 2012
The April forecast by ECMWF is up and has a big spread as time goes ahead. Let's see when the next three month forecasts come out,how it does.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13339

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I am a tropical weather enthusiastic as I live on hurricane alley.

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