Leslie

By: Tropicsweatherpr , 11:35 AM GMT on August 26, 2012

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The models have been showing a system moving thru the Leewards and then curving NW. Let's see what occurs in the next few days.

00z ECMWF

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41. Tropicsweatherpr
3:04 AM GMT on September 10, 2012
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 09 2012

...LESLIE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA AND COULD AFFECT
NEWFOUNDLAND BY MONDAY NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.4N 61.8W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LESLIE.
A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.8 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA THIS EVENING. A TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
NEWFOUNDLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...AND LESLIE COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS BY TUESDAY. LESLIE
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A TRANSFORMATION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL OR
FRONTAL CYCLONE AS IT APPROACHES NEWFOUNDLAND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES...315 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

RAINFALL...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE INCH OR LESS ON BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 09 2012

THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN OF LESLIE HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY ERODE
AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE ALSO CONTINUED TO WARM SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 50 KT BASED ON A BLEND
OF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45 KT AND T3.5/55
KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/14. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST AND REASONING. LESLIE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS OR SO AS THE CYCLONE ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS EAST. BY 24 HOURS...LESLIE IS
FORECAST TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH FROM
THE WEST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY DAYS 3-4...
LESLIE WILL BE INTERACTING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND
EASTWARD IN THE HIGH-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. ABSORPTION BY A LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BY DAY 5 OVER THE NORTH SEA.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY
PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE.

LESLIE CONTINUES TO LACK ANY INNER-CORE DEEP CONVECTION AND ALSO HAS
A BROAD INNER-CORE WIND FIELD...WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...AS THE
CYCLONE BEGINS TO ACCELERATE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD...THE ADDITIONAL
FORWARD SPEED COMPONENT SHOULD INCREASE THE WIND SPEEDS IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SINCE LESLIE IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING AT NEARLY
35 KT BY 36 HOURS...THIS COULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO ACHIEVE
HURRICANE STATUS AGAIN BEFORE THE CYCLONE AFFECTS SOUTHEASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND. AFTER 36 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
LESLIE WILL TRANSITION INTO A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AFTER
IT MERGES WITH A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM BY DAY 2. LESLIE WILL REMAIN
A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED BY A LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON DAY 5.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM LESLIE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ROUGH SURF
AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE
U.S. EAST COAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OWING TO THE INCREASING
FORWARD SPEED OF LESLIE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...A HURRICANE WATCH
WILL LIKELY REQUIRED EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...INCLUDING THE AVALON PENINSULA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 34.4N 61.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 36.8N 60.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 41.3N 58.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 47.5N 53.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
48H 12/0000Z 54.1N 46.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 13/0000Z 62.5N 25.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/0000Z 62.5N 3.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 15/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13337
40. Tropicsweatherpr
11:37 PM GMT on September 09, 2012

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 42A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
800 PM AST SUN SEP 09 2012

...LESLIE MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA AND HEADED FOR NEWFOUNDLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 62.0W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

INTERESTS IN NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LESLIE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA THIS EVENING. A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...AND LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND BY
TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...AND LESLIE COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS BY TUESDAY. LESLIE
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A TRANSFORMATION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL OR
FRONTAL CYCLONE AS IT APPROACHES NEWFOUNDLAND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES...315 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST TO 47 MPH...76 KM/H...WAS RECENTLY
REPORTED ON BERMUDA.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SHOULD END OVER BERMUDA SOMETIME
THIS EVENING.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

RAINFALL...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ON BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13337
39. Tropicsweatherpr
11:51 AM GMT on September 09, 2012
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 40A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
800 AM AST SUN SEP 09 2012

...LESLIE SLIGHTLY WEAKER...
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS CONTINUE ON BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 62.5W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A NORTHWARD MOTION
WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LESLIE SHOULD PASS EAST OF
BERMUDA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND LESLIE COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES...315 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST TO 48 MPH...77 KM/H...WAS RECENTLY
REPORTED AT AN AUTOMATED WEATHER OBSERVING STATION ON ST. DAVIDS
ISLAND BERMUDA.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA TODAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

RAINFALL...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ON BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH


Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13337
38. Tropicsweatherpr
10:34 AM GMT on September 09, 2012
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 AM AST SUN SEP 09 2012

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS REPORTED ON BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 62.5W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A NORTHWARD MOTION
WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR
MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LESLIE SHOULD PASS
EAST OF BERMUDA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND LESLIE COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES...315 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST TO 45 MPH...72 KM/H...WAS RECENTLY
REPORTED AT AN AUTOMATED WEATHER OBSERVING STATION ON ST. DAVIDS
ISLAND BERMUDA.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA TODAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

RAINFALL...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ON BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 AM AST SUN SEP 09 2012

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LESLIE DECREASED IN COVERAGE LATE
IN THE EVENING...HOWEVER A NEW BURST OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED
JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND IT IS NOW WRAPPING AROUND THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 45 TO 55 KT AND AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED
A LARGE AREA OF 40-45 KT WINDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED
AT 55 KT...WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.

AS LESLIE MOVES NORTHWARD IT SHOULD FINALLY LEAVE THE AREA OF COOLER
WATERS CAUSED BY UPWELLING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. AS THIS
OCCURS THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE IN A FAVORABLE UPPER-AIR
ENVIRONMENT. THESE CONDITIONS FAVOR INTENSIFICATION...HOWEVER
GIVEN THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE AND ISSUES WITH DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT...LESLIE MAY HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY IN STRENGTHENING.
THE NEW NHC FORECAST CALLS SOME INCREASE IN WIND SPEED...BUT LESS
THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. LESLIE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
INTERACTING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE WITHIN 48 HOURS AND THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL EARLY TUESDAY. THE EXTRATROPICAL
LOW IS PREDICTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY FOR A DAY OR SO BEFORE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT. LESLIE IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST AS A LARGE
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DURING THE
FIRST 48 HOURS AND THE NHC TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ONCE AGAIN TRENDED TOWARD
A FASTER SOLUTION FOR THE 3 TO 5 DAY FORECAST PERIODS. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN A SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK FORECAST AT 72
THROUGH 120 H. HOWEVER...THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THE EXTRATROPICAL
PORTION IS STILL SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN ORDER TO
MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM LESLIE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ROUGH SURF
AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE
U.S. EAST COAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 30.8N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 32.4N 62.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 34.5N 61.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 37.5N 60.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 42.0N 58.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 52.0N 50.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/0600Z 59.5N 35.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/0600Z 61.0N 15.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13337
37. Tropicsweatherpr
2:46 AM GMT on September 09, 2012
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 08 2012

...OUTER RAINBANDS OF LESLIE NOW MOVING OVER BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 62.6W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A NORTHWARD MOTION
WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LESLIE SHOULD PASS
EAST OF BERMUDA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND LESLIE COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA ON SUNDAY.
SQUALLS...OCCASIONALLY STRONG...SHOULD BEGIN OVERNIGHT.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

RAINFALL...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ON BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

WTNT42 KNHC 090235
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 08 2012

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
LESLIE HAS AGAIN BECOME ASYMMETRIC...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION
CURRENTLY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 55 KT...AND A RECENT CIMSS SATELLITE
CONSENSUS ESTIMATE WAS 58 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/7. A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT ARE MOVING FROM THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. INCREASING SOUTHERLY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STEER LESLIE TO THE
NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST AT AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. THE NEW
TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 48
HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A MUCH
FASTER NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AS LESLIE UNDERGOES
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED ENOUGH THAT IT
IS IMPOSSIBLE TO FOLLOW IT AND MAINTAIN ANY CONTINUITY WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THUS...THE 72-120 HR FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE SLOWER PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE MUCH FASTER MODEL
GUIDANCE. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS OF THIS PART OF THE FORECAST
TRACK MAY BE NECESSARY IF THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

LESLIE CURRENTLY HAS A VERY IMPRESSIVE CIRRUS OUTFLOW PATTERN...AND
IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER A WARM WATER/LIGHT WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR
THE NEXT 36-48 HR. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING...
ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT STORM STRUCTURE AND ISSUES WITH DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT ARGUE AGAINST RAPID DEVELOPMENT. THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE SHOWS A LITTLE LESS STRENGTHENING THAN 6 HR AGO...SO THE
NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF
75 KT IN 48 HR. THIS PART OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN AFTER 48 HR AND BE COMPLETE
BY 72-96 HR...WITH LESLIE FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THIS PROCESS.

THE WIND FIELD OF LESLIE...COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE
WAVES AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH
OF THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 30.1N 62.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 31.3N 62.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 33.2N 61.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 35.3N 60.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 38.5N 59.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 46.0N 54.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/0000Z 49.0N 48.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/0000Z 51.5N 40.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13337
36. Tropicsweatherpr
12:34 AM GMT on September 09, 2012

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 38A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
800 PM AST SAT SEP 08 2012

...CENTER OF LESLIE CONTINUING NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 62.6W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF
BERMUDA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT LESLIE WILL REGAIN
HURRICANE STATUS ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER. RADAR FROM BERMUDA SHOWS RAINBANDS APPROACHING THAT
ISLAND.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BY EARLY
SUNDAY...HOWEVER SQUALLS...OCCASIONALLY STRONG...SHOULD BEGIN LATER
TONIGHT.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

RAINFALL...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ON BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13337
35. Tropicsweatherpr
5:46 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
200 PM AST SAT SEP 08 2012

...RAINBANDS APPROACHING BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 62.5W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF
BERMUDA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT LESLIE WILL REGAIN
HURRICANE STATUS IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER. OUTER SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH LESLIE ARE GRADUALLY
APPROACHING BERMUDA.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BY EARLY
SUNDAY...HOWEVER SQUALLS...OCCASIONALLY STRONG...SHOULD BEGIN LATER
TODAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

RAINFALL...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ON BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13337
34. Tropicsweatherpr
3:45 PM GMT on September 08, 2012

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 08 2012

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. LESLIE DOES NOT HAVE AN INNER CORE AND MOST OF
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN CONVECTIVE BANDS REMOVED
FROM THE CENTER. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS
BEEN TRAVERSING THE CYCLONE THIS MORNING AND REPORTED THAT THE
MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ABOUT 55 KNOTS...AND THE PRESSURE HAS
RISEN TO
988 MB. SINCE LESLIE IS STILL FEELING THE INFLUENCE OF COLD SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS PLENTY OF WARM WATER AHEAD OF LESLIE...AND AS
SOON AS THE CIRCULATION MOVES OVER THESE WATERS...THE POTENTIAL FOR
LESLIE TO REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS WILL INCREASE. LESLIE IS EXPECTED
TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT LESLIE HAS BEEN MOVING
NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 7 KNOTS. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE
APPROACHING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN A DAY OR SO...AND THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL FORCE LESLIE TO RECURVE
AND INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...WHICH IN FACT IS VERY TIGHT...REMAINS WELL EAST OF
BERMUDA. THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY ON TOP OF THE CONSENSUS AND
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.

THE WIND FIELD OF LESLIE...COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE
WAVES AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH
OF THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 28.6N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 29.5N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 31.2N 62.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 32.8N 61.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 34.5N 61.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 40.5N 58.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 45.0N 55.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/1200Z 47.0N 51.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13337
33. Tropicsweatherpr
10:32 AM GMT on September 08, 2012
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 AM AST SAT SEP 08 2012

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA AS LESLIE MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 62.3W
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.3 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF BERMUDA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND LESLIE COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BY EARLY
SUNDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

RAINFALL...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ON BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

080846
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 AM AST SAT SEP 08 2012

LESLIE SHOWED SOME SIGNS OF PERHAPS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED EARLIER
TONIGHT...WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS RECENTLY BECOME
MORE RAGGED AND THE COLDEST TOPS ARE DISPLACED WEST AND NORTH OF
THE CENTER LOCATION. DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT MISSIONS LAST
NIGHT AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SOME DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...WHICH IS LIKELY HINDERING
INTENSIFICATION FOR THE TIME BEING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
55 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS DRY AIR AND
RELATIVELY COOL WATERS SHOULD LEAD TO ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...AS LESLIE MOVES OVER WARMER
WATERS...STEADIER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH 72 HOURS. AT
DAYS 4 AND 5 LESLIE SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE SHEAR INCREASES WHILE THE
CYCLONE MOVES NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM AND UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS AFTER 12 HOURS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/04. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF
LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. LESLIE SHOULD
BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST
THROUGH 48 HOURS IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...
THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE LEFT WITH A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. THIS REPRESENTS A TREND TOWARD THE LATEST
TRACK GUIDANCE...WHICH FOR THIS CYCLE GENERALLY SHOWS MORE
INTERACTION BETWEEN LESLIE AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT TRIES TO CUT
OFF EAST OF NEW ENGLAND IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE NEW NHC TRACK
IS STILL A LITTLE EAST OF THE TVCA CONSENSUS AND LIES ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE WIND FIELD OF LESLIE...COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...
WILL GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE WAVES AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE U.S.
EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 28.1N 62.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 28.9N 62.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 30.3N 62.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 31.9N 61.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 33.6N 61.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 38.5N 58.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 44.5N 55.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/0600Z 48.0N 53.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13337
32. Tropicsweatherpr
12:13 AM GMT on September 08, 2012
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
800 PM AST FRI SEP 07 2012

...LESLIE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE
STORM...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 62.2W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.2 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS MOTION WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LESLIE WILL BE PASSING
EAST OF BERMUDA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT
LESLIE COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS DURING THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41049 RECENTLY REPORTED 1-MINUTE MEAN
WINDS OF 56 MPH...90 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST OF 67 MPH...108 KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.
NOAA BUOY 41049 RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 983.8 MB...29.05
INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA BY EARLY
SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13337
31. Tropicsweatherpr
8:48 PM GMT on September 07, 2012
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM AST FRI SEP 07 2012

...LESLIE FINALLY ON THE MOVE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 62.2W
ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.2 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS MOTION WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LESLIE WILL BE PASSING
EAST OF BERMUDA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT
LESLIE COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS DURING THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA BY EARLY
SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM AST FRI SEP 07 2012

THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE THIS AFTERNOON IS THAT LESLIE HAS BEGUN
TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 4 KNOTS AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE AT 55 KNOTS.

THE CENTER IS PASSING JUST EAST OF NOAA BUOY 41049 WHICH REPORTED
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 989 MB.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES CLEARLY SHOW A LARGE CENTER OF CIRCULATION
WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...
SUGGESTING THAT LESLIE STILL LACKS AN INNER CORE. SHIP AND BUOY
OBSERVATIONS...AS WELL AS SST MICROWAVE DATA...ARE INDICATING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28 AND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS TO THE NORTH OF
LESLIE. SINCE THE SHEAR HAS DECREASED...ONCE LESLIE MOVES OVER
THESE WARMER WATERS IN A DAY OR SO...THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD
THAT IT WILL REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH. IN FACT...MOST OF THE
CYCLONES IN THE ATLANTIC THIS YEAR THAT HAVE REACHED HURRICANE
INTENSITY HAVE DONE SO AS THEY APPROACH 30 DEGREES NORTH AND NOT IN
THE DEEP TROPICS.

STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED AS A
LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES AND CANADA. THIS TROUGH SHOULD ACCELERATE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
THAT EVENTUALLY WILL FORCE LESLIE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST
SINCE THE GUIDANCE IS REMARKABLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE NEXT 3
DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE WIND FIELD OF LESLIE...COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...
WILL GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE WAVES AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE U.S.
EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 27.4N 62.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 28.0N 62.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 28.8N 62.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 30.2N 62.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 31.8N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 35.0N 60.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 41.0N 56.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 47.0N 52.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13337
30. Tropicsweatherpr
6:36 PM GMT on September 07, 2012
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 07 2012

LESLIE HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY TOO LONG AND THE OCEAN BENEATH HAS
COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY. IN FACT...ONE OF THE AXBT SONDES LAUNCHED FROM
THE NOAA PLANE CURRENTLY IN LESLIE MEASURED A SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE OF 24.5 DEGREES CELSIUS. CONSEQUENTLY...THE CONVECTION
HAS DIMINISHED AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. THE
NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ALSO MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF
981 MB...BUT BOTH SFMR AND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS ONLY SUPPORT AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS. ONCE LESLIE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
COOL POOL IT HAS CREATED FOR ITSELF...THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO BE LOW. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...LESLIE SHOULD HAVE
LOST TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOME A STRONG POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE.

THE STEERING CURRENTS COLLAPSED A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO RESULTING IN
LESLIE BEING NEARLY STATIONARY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A LARGE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
AND CANADA. THIS TROUGH SHOULD ACCELERATE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT
EVENTUALLY WILL FORCE LESLIE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH THIS
SOLUTION PRIMARILY IN THE FIRST 3 DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF.

THE WIND FIELD OF LESLIE...COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...
WILL GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE WAVES AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE U.S.
EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 26.8N 62.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 27.1N 62.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 28.0N 62.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 29.0N 62.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 30.5N 61.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 33.3N 60.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 39.0N 57.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 45.5N 53.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13337
29. Tropicsweatherpr
10:52 AM GMT on September 07, 2012

HURRICANE LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 AM AST FRI SEP 07 2012

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF LESLIE HAS DEGRADED SOMEWHAT OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. THE EARLIER CDO FEATURE HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED AND
MOST OF THE REMAINING COLD CLOUD TOPS ARE DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF
THE CENTER IN SOME RAGGED BANDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65
KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. A NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING LESLIE LATER THIS
MORNING AND PROVIDE VALUABLE DATA ON THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF
THE CYCLONE.

SATELLITE WINDS AND ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS SUGGEST THAT SOME LIGHT
TO MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS IMPACTING THE CYCLONE. THE
SHEAR ALONG WITH THE DISORGANIZED STATE OF THE INNER CORE AND
COOLING SSTS DUE TO UPWELLING SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE CHANGE IN
INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...AS LESLIE
BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD WARMER WATERS...THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER
WATERS AND INCREASING SHEAR DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE
NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AT
48 AND 72 HOURS AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST IVCN CONSENSUS.

SATELLITE FIXES AND WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 41049 SUGGEST
THAT LESLIE IS DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. A STEADIER NORTHWARD
MOTION SHOULD BEGIN BY 24 HOURS AS THE RIDGE NORTH OF LESLIE BEGINS
TO MOVE EASTWARD AND AMPLIFY. AFTER 48 HOURS...AN ACCELERATION
TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS LESLIE
INTERACTS WITH A COMPLEX MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING FROM THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS SOME SPREAD IN FORWARD SPEED AND HEADING...
ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH THE GFDL...WHILE THE LATEST GFS RUN HAS
TRENDED FASTER AND LEFT TOWARD THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE END
RESULT IS THAT THE LATEST TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS VERY CLOSE
TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST...AND THE NEW NHC TRACK IS BASICALLY
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 THE NHC FORECAST
IS VERY CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS.

THE WIND FIELD OF LESLIE...COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...
WILL GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE WAVES AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE U.S.
EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 26.7N 62.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 26.9N 62.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 27.6N 62.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 28.6N 62.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 30.1N 62.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 33.7N 61.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 38.5N 58.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 46.0N 54.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13337
28. Tropicsweatherpr
8:45 PM GMT on September 06, 2012
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM AST THU SEP 06 2012

...LESLIE HESITATES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 62.2W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE WEATHER SERVICE OF BERMUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 2 TO 3
DAYS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.2 WEST. LESLIE IS
STATIONARY...AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A SLOW
NORTHWARD DRIFT SHOULD BEGIN ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LESLIE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT...BUT LESLIE WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO INTENSIFY ON
FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM. A NOAA BOUY...41049...REPORTED A 1-MIN SUSTAINED
WIND OF 59 MPH...95 KM/H EARLIER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

HURRICANE LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM AST THU SEP 06 2012

THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION DURING THE DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT THE OVERALL
CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE SMALLER. THERE IS A CONVECTIVE BAND
WRAPPING AROUND A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...WHICH GIVES THE
APPEARANCE OF BETTER ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...MICROWAVE DATA DOES NOT
SHOW A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE AT THIS TIME. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM
BOTH TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT KEEPING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS.
SINCE LESLIE HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE...IT IS PRODUCING UPWELLING
RESULTING IN LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA. THE
UPWELLING IN COMBINATION WITH THE SHEAR WOULD NOT FAVOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING UNTIL LESLIE BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER
UNDISTURBED WARMER WATERS IN A DAY OR TWO. THE NHC FORECAST CALLS
FOR A MODEST STRENGTHENING BEGINNING IN 24 HOURS.

LESLIE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY LIGHT STEERING
CURRENTS...AND CONSEQUENTLY IT HAS REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY
ALL DAY. THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS FROM GLOBAL MODELS OR OTHER
GUIDANCE THAT LESLIE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE FASTER ANY TIME SOON. IN
FACT...THE NHC FORECAST MOVES LESLIE NORTHWARD ONLY 120 NAUTICAL
MILES IN TWO DAYS. BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE EAST OF LESLIE...AND THIS FEATURE IN
COMBINATION WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL FORCE THE
HURRICANE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK...AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE
VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AND BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
GLOBAL MODELS. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE WHOLE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT EASTWARD AWAY FROM BERMUDA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE NHC FORECAST PREFERS TO MAKE THAT EASTWARD
ADJUSTMENT MORE GRADUALLY.

THE WIND FIELD OF LESLIE...COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...
WILL GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE WAVES AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE U.S.
EAST COAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 26.5N 62.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 26.6N 62.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 27.0N 62.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 27.5N 62.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 28.5N 62.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 32.0N 62.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 35.5N 60.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 41.5N 56.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13337
27. Tropicsweatherpr
10:37 AM GMT on September 06, 2012

HURRICANE LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 AM AST THU SEP 06 2012

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF LESLIE REMAINS RAGGED...WITH MOST OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED EAST OF THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW
APPEARS RESTRICTED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO WESTERLY SHEAR
FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF LESLIE.
IN ADDITION...THE LACK OF MOTION IS RESULTING IN SOME COOLING OF THE
SEA SURFACE NEAR THE CYCLONE...AS EVIDENCED BY A 1C SST DECREASE IN
THE LAST 24 HOURS AT NOAA BUOY 41049. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
65 KT BASED ON THE LASTEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.

MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR...THE POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR...AND
UPWELLING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE SHEAR BEGINS TO DECREASE AND
LESLIE SHOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN AS IT BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHWARD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LESLIE HAS HARDLY MOVED OVERNIGHT...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
OF 360/01 AS THE CYCLONE IS TRAPPED SOUTH OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A SLOW NORTHWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THAT TIME. THE NHC
FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH
48 HOURS DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION AND THE TREND OF
THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MUCH SLOWER WITH THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
CYCLONE. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE SLOWER MOTION OF LESLIE
EARLY ON AND A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND/OR LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE GFS IS ON THE
RIGHT SIDE OF THE RELIABLE MODELS AND SHOWS THE TROUGH MISSING
LESLIE ENTIRELY. AT THE OTHER EXTREME IS THE GFDL...WHICH IS A FAST
OUTLIER THAT SHOWS LESLIE BEING CAPTURED BY THE TROUGH AT END OF
THE PERIOD. THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS WELL TO THE RIGHT OF
AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE
NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION BUT IS STILL FASTER
AND TO THE LEFT OF MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG-
RANGE TRACK FORECAST IS LOW AND FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE
NECESSARY LATER TODAY.

THE INITIAL WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A 0153 UTC ASCAT PASS
AND DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 40149. LESLIE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE
THAT IS FORECAST TO GROW IN SIZE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
WIND FIELD OF LESLIE...COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...
WILL GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE WAVES AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE U.S.
EAST COAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 26.3N 62.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 26.5N 62.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 26.7N 62.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 27.1N 62.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 27.7N 63.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 31.0N 63.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 36.5N 61.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 43.0N 59.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13337
26. Tropicsweatherpr
3:09 AM GMT on September 06, 2012
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST WED SEP 05 2012

...LESLIE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DRIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 62.5W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LESLIE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A NORTHWARD OR NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REAMIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LESLIE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195
MILES...315 KM. NOAA BUOY 41049 TO THE NORTHWEST OF LESLIE RECENTLY
REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 47 MPH...76 KM/H.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG


HURRICANE LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST WED SEP 05 2012

RECENT TRMM AND SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT LESLIE HAS NOT
FORMED A CLOSED EYEWALL...AND IN FACT...THE INNER CORE CONVECTION
HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT RAGGED. THERE IS STILL SOME INDICATION OF
WESTERLY SHEAR AS WELL...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDING
LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BEING HELD AT 65 KT BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0 FROM TAFB AND
SAB...AND A UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.7/4.3.

BASED ON RECENT TRMM MICROWAVE FIXES...THE MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE
010/2 KT. LESLIE SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW NORTHWARD CREEP FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO WHILE IT REMAINS TRAPPED TO THE SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE HURRICANE
SHOULD GAIN SOME NORTHWARD MOMENTUM BY DAY 3 ONCE A DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GFS MODEL HAS
SHIFTED BACK TO THE EAST ON THIS CYCLE AND IS THE EASTERNMOST AND
SLOWEST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. SINCE THIS
HAS NOT YET TURNED INTO A CONSISTENT TREND...THE NHC FORECAST IS
BEING KEPT CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST.

LESLIE IS PRECARIOUSLY CLOSE TO DRY AIR LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. A CROSS SECTION BASED ON GFS MODEL DATA SHOWS AIR WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 30 PERCENT ABUTTING AGAINST THE
CIRCULATION IN THE 250-500 MB LAYER. SINCE MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT LESLIE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...THE DRY
AIR COULD CONTINUE TO SEEP INTO THE CIRCULATION. IN ADDITION...
MICROWAVE DATA INDICATES THAT THE SEA SURFACE BENEATH LESLIE IS
COOLING DUE TO UPWELLING...AND THIS IS UNLIKELY TO CHANGE AS LONG
AS THE HURRICANE MOVES SO SLOWLY. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
MOSTLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND INDICATES GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS.

LESLIE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS FORECAST TO GROW IN SIZE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE WIND FIELD OF THE CYCLONE...
COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...WILL HELP TO GENERATE
LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE WAVES AND LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 26.2N 62.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 26.4N 62.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 26.8N 62.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 27.1N 63.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 27.7N 63.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 30.5N 64.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 35.5N 63.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 44.0N 59.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13337
25. Tropicsweatherpr
9:46 PM GMT on September 05, 2012
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM AST WED SEP 05 2012

...HURRICANE LESLIE DRIFTING ERRATICALLY NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 62.7W
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.7 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A SLOW NORTHWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...WHICH MAY BE ERRATIC AT TIMES...IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LESLIE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND LESLIE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BY FRIDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE-WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
230 MILES...370 KM. NOAA BUOY 41049...LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF LESLIE...HAS RECENTLY REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH...72 KM/H...AND A GUST TO 51 MPH...82
KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

HURRICANE LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM AST WED SEP 05 2012

THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW OF LESLIE HAS EXPANDED BY MORE THAN 100 NMI TO
THE WEST SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...INDICATING THAT THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE HAS DECREASED. A BANDING EYE
FEATURE HAS BEEN EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE 1700
UTC...BUT A RECENT BURST OF EYEWALL CONVECTION HAS OBSCURED THE
EYE. SSMIS AND TRMM MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED
MID-LEVEL EYE HAS DEVELOPED AND A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE COULD
BE UNDERWAY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT IS BASED ON SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND AN
AVERAGE ADT ESTIMATE OF T4.3/72 KT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 360/02 KT. LESLIE HAS WOBBLED
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT THAT
ERRATIC MOTION IS LIKELY JUST DUE TO REFORMATION OF THE EYE. THE
LATEST GFS FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST...WHILE
THE ECMWF FORECAST HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST. SINCE THESE TWO MODELS
ARE NOW CONVERGING CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...THE NEW
NHC FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WHICH
LIES A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCA AND TV15.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR FOR THE NEXT 96 HOURS. COLD WATER UPWELLING
BENEATH THE CYCLONE DUE TO ITS VERY SLOW FORWARD SPEED AND THE
PRESENCE OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR LURKING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
CYCLONE MAY LIMIT THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. THE GFS-BASED SHIPS
AND LGEM MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE NEGATIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AS A
RESULT OF THE GFS MODEL CREATING A VERY ROBUST HURRICANE...WHICH
FURTHER GENERATES SIGNIFICANT 200 MB WARMING AFTER 72 HOURS. THE
ECMWF... UKMET...AND HWRF MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A STRONG
HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS
REMAINS HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AFTER 72 HOURS.

LESLIE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS FORECAST TO GROW IN SIZE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE WIND FIELD OF THE CYCLONE...
COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...WILL HELP TO GENERATE
LARGE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PROPAGATE AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE TOWARD BERMUDA AND MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 25.9N 62.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 26.1N 62.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 26.5N 63.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 26.8N 63.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 27.2N 63.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 29.3N 64.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 34.0N 64.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 42.0N 61.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13337
24. Tropicsweatherpr
5:56 PM GMT on September 05, 2012

HURRICANE LESLIE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
145 PM AST WED SEP 5 2012

CORRECTED LATITUDE IN SUMMARY INFORMATION

...LESLIE STRENGTHENS INTO THE SIXTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE LESLIE HAS STRENGTHENED INTO
A HURRICANE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 75 MPH...120 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

SUMMARY OF 145 PM AST...1745 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------- -
LOCATION...25.8N 62.5W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13337
23. Tropicsweatherpr
11:25 PM GMT on September 04, 2012

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM AST TUE SEP 04 2012

ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF LESLIE
DURING THE DAY...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL SOMEWHAT DISPLACED
TO THE WEST OF THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CENTER. THE CI-NUMBERS FROM
TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 3.5 AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED
BIAS-CORRECTED WINDS OF 50-55 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD
AT 55 KT. 20 KT OF WEST-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AS
ANALYZED BY THE UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS SHEAR ANALYSIS...CONTINUES TO BE
THE PRIMARY INHIBITING FACTOR FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO RELAX AFTER 36 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
INTENSIFICATION. ADDITIONALLY...THE UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI-RSMAS OCEAN
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE HEAT CONTENT OF THE OCEAN BELOW LESLIE
IS HIGH...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE IMPACTS OF COLD WATER UPWELLING FROM
THE SLOW-MOVING CYCLONE. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY
INTENSIFICATION AFTER 36 HOURS...AND IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM MODEL
FORECAST. BY DAY 5...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN MOST OF
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXPECTED FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE CYCLONE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS NOT
BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN AT THIS TIME.

WHILE THE CENTER HAS WOBBLED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST DURING THE
DAY...LESLIE CONTINUES TO DRIFT GENERALLY NORTHWARD AND THE LONG-
TERM INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 360/3. THIS TRACK IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...IMPARTING A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY MOTION. LESLIE SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AS
IT MOVES AROUND THIS RIDGE ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND WESTWARD TRACK
THIS CYCLE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED ACCORDINGLY.

THE 34- AND 50-KT WIND RADII WERE MODIFIED BASED ON A 1320 UTC ASCAT
PASS.

DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF LESLIE AND ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...
LARGE SWELLS PROPAGATING AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND NEARLY ALL OF THE U.S. EAST
COAST FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 25.3N 62.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 25.7N 62.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 26.1N 62.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 26.5N 62.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 26.9N 62.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 27.5N 63.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 29.5N 65.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 34.0N 65.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY/CANGIALOSI

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13337
22. Tropicsweatherpr
3:14 PM GMT on September 04, 2012
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 04 2012

DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF LESLIE OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL EVIDENCE OF ABOUT 20 KT OF
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD STRUCTURE NOW MORE
RESEMBLES A CURVED BAND PATTERN. RECENT MICROWAVE DATA AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO CAUSE THE
CIRCULATION TO BE VERTICALLY TILTED AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
DISPLACED ABOUT 30 N MI TO THE WEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 55 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK
CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...BUT THIS COULD BE GENEROUS. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO THE
POOR VERTICAL ALIGNMENT OF LESLIE AND THE FORECAST SHEAR...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH DURING THAT TIME. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN AND THE NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW A MUCH
MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN FOR LESLIE TO GAIN
STRENGTH. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS IN LINE WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS BETWEEN LGEM AND HWRF GUIDANCE.

LESLIE IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 3 KT AND IS LOCATED
IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. THE STEERING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THEREFORE LESLIE IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE DRIFTING NORTHWARD DURING THAT TIME. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTHEAST OF LESLIE. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE
CYCLONE TO FIRST TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN ACCELERATE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD IN 4 TO 5 DAYS AS IT MOVES ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AIDS...TV15 AND TVCA.

DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF LESLIE AND ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...
LARGE SWELLS PROPAGATING AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND NEARLY ALL OF THE U.S. EAST
COAST FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 25.0N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 25.5N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 26.0N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 26.5N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 26.8N 62.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 27.5N 63.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 29.2N 64.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 33.0N 65.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/ZELINSKY
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13337
21. Tropicsweatherpr
10:37 AM GMT on September 04, 2012
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 AM AST TUE SEP 04 2012

AFTER AN EARLIER BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION SHORTLY AFTER THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY. ALTHOUGH THE
SHEARED CONVECTIVE CLOUD SHIELD HAS TAKEN ON A SMOOTHER
APPEARANCE...THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 55 KT BASED ON DVORAK
CI-VALUES OF T3.5/55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.

MICROWAVE FIXES THAT ARRIVED AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SUGGEST
THAT LESLIE HAD...IN FACT...MOVED LITTLE...BUT WAS ALSO LOCATED A
LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST. THE GENERAL MOTION TREND OF THE OVERALL
CLOUD MASS NOW SUGGESTS THAT LESLIE HAS RESUMED A SLOW NORTHWARD
MOTION OF 360/03 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE-DERIVED
WINDS INDICATE A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LESLIE HAS
BYPASSED THE CYCLONE WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OFF THE CAROLINAS IS
BUILDING EASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. THE INCREASED RIDGING
TO THE NORTH OF LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO HINDER ANY SIGNIFICANT
FORWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 4 DAYS. BY DAY 5...HOWEVER...A LARGE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS
FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY DAY 5
AND GRADUALLY BEGINS TO LIFT THE CYCLONE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH DAY 3...AND THEN IS BACK ON TRACK AT DAYS 4
AND 5. THIS SCENARIO CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCN.

LITTLE OR NO INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH 36 HOURS DUE TO
MODERATE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IMPINGING ON THE
CYCLONE. HOWEVER...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AT 48 HOURS
AND BEYOND AS THE SHEAR DECREASES AND AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS OVER LESLIE. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANOTHER
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG 50W LONGITUDE...IS
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE OUTFLOW OF LESLIE ON DAY 5. THE GFS-BASED
SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS APPEAR TO BE SUFFERING FROM NEGATIVE FEEDBACK
AT DAYS 4-5 CAUSED BY 200/250 MB WARMING DUE TO THE GFS MODEL
MAKING LESLIE A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THAT TIME. IN
FACT...THE ECMWF ALSO IS FORECASTING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF
LESLIE ON DAYS 4-5...AS INDICATED BY 130-KT 850 MB WINDS ON DAY 5.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR IN STRENGTH WITH 115-KT 850 MB WINDS ALSO ON DAY
5. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...BUT SHOWS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER INTENSITY ON DAY 5...WHICH
IS CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS INTENSITY MODEL ICON.

WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED IN ALL QUADRANTS BASED ON A 04/0054 UTC
ASCAT OVERPASS AND A 37-KT WIND REPORT FROM SHIP DPJK...WHICH WAS
LOCATED ABOUT 180 NMI SOUTH OF THE CENTER. DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF
LESLIE AND ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...LARGE SWELLS PROPAGATING AWAY
FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL AFFECT BERMUDA AND NEARLY ALL OF
THE U.S. EAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 24.7N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 25.3N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 25.9N 62.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 26.4N 62.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 26.7N 62.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 27.6N 63.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 29.1N 64.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 32.0N 65.3W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13337
20. Tropicsweatherpr
3:30 PM GMT on September 03, 2012
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM AST MON SEP 03 2012

...LESLIE MAINTAINING 60 MPH WINDS...
...LARGE SWELLS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE U.S. EAST COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 63.1W
ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR ANOTHER
DAY OR SO. SWELLS COULD ALSO AFFECT BERMUDA AND THE U.S. EAST COAST
FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE
SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM AST MON SEP 03 2012

LESLIE CONTINUES TO BE AFFECTED BY ABOUT 15 KT OF NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR...ACCORDING TO ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS. THIS SHEAR HAS CAUSED
THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN TO BE QUITE ASYMMETRIC WITH NEARLY ALL OF
THE COLD CLOUD TOPS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS THIS CYCLE...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50
KT. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR INCREASING A LITTLE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE STORM FROM STRENGTHENING
DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO RELAX AND GIVEN THAT THE OTHER ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE...LESLIE WILL LIKELY HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO GAIN STRENGTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND BASICALLY A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM
GUIDANCE.

RECENT MICROWAVE DATA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF LESLIE WAS LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK. BLENDING THE MICROWAVE DATA WITH EARLIER SATELLITE FIXES
YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 330/7. LESLIE IS CURRENTLY
MOVING TOWARD A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO ITS NORTH. THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE EAST...CAUSING THE STEERING CURRENTS TO
WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREFORE...LESLIE IS ONLY
EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE 24 TO 72 HOUR TIME PERIOD.
LATE IN THE WEEK...THE COMBINED INFLUENCES OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND A RIDGE TO THE EAST OF LESLIE
SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD
AT A FASTER PACE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ABOUT 30 N MI
TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO THE MORE WESTWARD INITIAL
POSITION.

DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE AND EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...
LARGE SWELLS PROPAGATING AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL AFFECT
BERMUDA AND NEARLY ALL OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 24.4N 63.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 25.2N 63.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 25.8N 63.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 26.3N 63.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 26.8N 63.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 27.7N 63.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 29.0N 64.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 31.5N 64.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13337
19. Tropicsweatherpr
11:47 AM GMT on September 03, 2012

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 AM AST MON SEP 03 2012

A TREMENDOUS BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTAINING CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES OF -84C TO -88C HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE CENTER AND OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE FOR MORE THAN 6 HOURS. THE CLOUD CANOPY HAS
GRADUALLY BEEN EXPANDING NORTHWARD...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE
VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT AS STRONG AS SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
INDICATING. RECENT MICROWAVE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED JUST INSIDE THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION
OF THE MASSIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD SHIELD. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES USING A SHEAR PATTERN ARE T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND
T3.0/45 KT FROM SAB...PLUS AN ADT ESTIMATE T3.2/49 KT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SURFACE CENTER...THE
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/07 KT. OTHER THAN A FEW WOBBLES
HERE AND THERE...LESLIE HAS REMAINED BASICALLY ON TRACK. OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
THAT LESLIE WILL MOVE TOWARD A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT
IS BEING INDUCED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ALONG 65W. AS THE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN TO
THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND CAUSE IT TO SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY ON
DAYS 3 AND 4. HOWEVER...BY DAY 5...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPPER-LOW
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AND
ACT TO LIFT LESLIE NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT A FASTER
FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FAIRLY
TIGHT GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND LIES BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS
MODELS TVCA AND TV15.

THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL IS CURRENTLY INDICATING MORE THAN 20 KT OF
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE CYCLONE...WHICH APPEARS TO
BE OVERDONE DUE TO THE 500 KM RADIUS USED BY THAT MODEL TO COMPUTE
SHEAR. THE LATEST UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS INDICATES ONLY ABOUT 15
KT OF SHEAR...WHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE GIVEN THE TREMENDOUS
AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS PERSISTED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. THE SHIPS MODEL IS FORECASTING THE SHEAR TO INCREASE TO
NEAR 30 KT FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH
THESE SHEAR VALUES MAY BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE...EVEN AN INCREASE IN
TO AROUND 20 KT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HINDER THE INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS BUILD
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER LESLIE AS THE CYCLONE MOVES BETWEEN THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS AND A DIGGING TROUGH ALONG 50W ON
DAYS 4 AND 5. THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD CREATE CONDITIONS MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...EXCEPT AT DAY 5 WHERE THE
FORECAST IS HIGHER...BASED ON A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND HWRF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 23.8N 62.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 24.7N 62.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 25.5N 62.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 26.1N 62.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 26.6N 62.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 27.6N 62.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 28.7N 63.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 30.8N 64.1W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13337
18. Tropicsweatherpr
9:20 PM GMT on September 02, 2012

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM AST SUN SEP 02 2012

THE OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF LESLIE HAS CHANGED LITTLE
DURING THE DAY...AS THE CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
AN ASCAT PASS THAT ARRIVED SHORTLY AFTER THE RELEASE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF 40-45 KT WINDS WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON ASCAT DATA...THE INTENSITY IS
REDUCED TO 50 KT.

THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SINCE LESLIE HAS SUCH A LARGE
CIRCULATION AND WIND FIELD...IT IS LIKELY TO CHANGE LITTLE IN
INTENSITY DURING THAT TIME. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE...AND THE REMAINING ENVIRONMENT
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE GFDL AND HWRF
MODELS BRING LESLIE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 3-4 DAYS AND THE
GLOBAL MODELS ALSO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DEEPING BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AFTER 48 HOURS
AND REMAINS SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE SINCE IT IS UNCLEAR HOW THE
STRUCTURE OF LESLIE WILL EVOLVE IN THE SHORT-TERM. THE NHC
FORECAST IS CLOSEST THE LGEM GUIDANCE...WHICH IS HISTORICALLY
THE BEST PERFORMING INTENSITY MODEL.

AFTER HESITATING THIS MORNING...LESLIE HAS RESUMED A NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION AT AROUND 9 KT. THE TROPICAL STORM SHOULD CONTINUE
NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT...THEN TURN NORTHWARD IN 24-36 HOURS
AS IT MOVES TOWARD A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER THAT
TIME...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THERE IS MORE SPREAD IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE AFTER 48 HOURS THAN THERE WAS THIS MORNING. THE ECMWF AND
GFS MODEL TRACKS ARE NOW SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES APART...WITH THE GFS
ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND THE ECMWF THE
WESTERNMOST MODEL. GIVEN THIS SPREAD...THE UPDATED TRACK IS
BETWEEN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.
BECAUSE OF THE INCREASED SPREAD...THERE IS A LITTLE LESS CONFIDENCE
IN THE TRACK FORECAST THAN BEFORE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 22.4N 61.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 23.3N 62.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 24.6N 62.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 25.5N 63.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 26.0N 63.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 26.9N 62.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 28.0N 63.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 29.5N 63.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13337
17. Tropicsweatherpr
2:58 PM GMT on September 01, 2012
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 01 2012

...LESLIE STRUGGLING AGAINST SHEAR...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 55.7W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.7 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LESLIE IS EXPECTED
TO PASS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND BEGIN TO AFFECT PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 01 2012

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT LESLIE REMAINS A SHEARED CYCLONE
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE BAND. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 60 KT AS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS INTENSITY ESTIMATES. IT SEEMS LIKE
THE WINDOW FOR LESLIE TO BECOME A HURRICANE IS CLOSING AS
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS INCREASED. THIS SHEAR IS EVIDENT IN CIRRUS
CLOUD MOTIONS NEAR THE CENTER...ALONG WITH LARGE-SCALE ANALYSES
FROM THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS. THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SHEAR WILL PERSIST OR EVEN INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS LESLIE IS CAUGHT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED DURING THAT
TIME...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND
THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE SHEAR
COULD RELAX IN A FEW DAYS...SO GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN
THE LONG RANGE...CONTINUING THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE IMAGES REQUIRE A REPOSITIONING OF LESLIE ABOUT
30 N MI WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FIXES...GIVING A LONG-TERM MOTION OF
ABOUT 290/16. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW
AS IT MOVES AROUND A WEAKENING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THEN TURN NORTHWARD IN A FEW DAYS AS IT NEARS A BREAK IN
THE RIDGE. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE A BIT FASTER IN GENERAL...SHOWING
ENOUGH RIDGING EAST OF LESLIE TO KEEP THE SYSTEM FROM TOTALLY
STALLING OUT AS SUGGESTED IN EARLIER MODEL CYCLES. THE NEW NHC
FORECAST IS A BIT FASTER AND LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...MOSTLY DUE
TO THE CENTER REPOSITIONING.

THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A 1244
UTC ASCAT PASS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 18.3N 55.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 19.4N 57.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 21.0N 59.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 22.7N 61.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 24.1N 62.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 26.0N 62.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 27.5N 62.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 29.0N 61.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13337
16. Tropicsweatherpr
12:44 PM GMT on September 01, 2012

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 AM AST SAT SEP 01 2012

LESLIE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH A
BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
SEMICIRCLES. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE WAS
OBSERVED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY EMBEDDED IN THE CENTER OF
THE CDO. HOWEVER...THERE HAVE BEEN NO TIMELY MICROWAVE PASSES...
AND IT IS UNCLEAR IF THIS FEATURE IS COINCIDENT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. STILL...DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE COME UP TO T4.0 FROM TAFB
AND T3.5 FROM SAB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 60 KT.

DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER LOCATION...THE INITIAL MOTION
APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE AND IS ESTIMATED TO BE
295/15 KT. A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP A CUT-OFF LOW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF LESLIE TO WEAKEN.
LESLIE WILL RESPOND BY TURNING NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS...BUT THE CYCLONE WILL ALSO SLOW DOWN AS THE
STEERING FLOW AROUND IT COLLAPSES. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
DIVERGENCE IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE AFTER ABOUT 72 HOURS...THEY ALL
SHOW A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH OR EVEN NORTH-NORTHEAST BY DAY
5. THE NEW NHC FORECAST LIES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...AND IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON
DAYS 4 AND 5.

IF LESLIE IS GOING TO STRENGTHEN...IT PROBABLY HAS TO DO IT DURING
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN COULD THEN BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING BY DAY 5. THE INTENSITY MODELS DO
NOT SUPPORT MUCH INTENSIFICATION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND
THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE BY
INDICATING ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING. THIS FORECAST IS HIGHER
THAN THAT SHOWN BY THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS
THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS ICON AND HFIP CONSENSUS TV15.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 17.8N 53.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 18.8N 55.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 20.2N 57.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 21.6N 59.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 23.1N 60.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 25.0N 61.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 26.5N 61.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 28.5N 61.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13337
15. Tropicsweatherpr
10:45 PM GMT on August 31, 2012
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM AST FRI AUG 31 2012

...LESLIE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 51.0W
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.0 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED BY LATE
SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO
PASS WELL NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM AST FRI AUG 31 2012

THE STORM LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION IN ADDITION TO MICROWAVE
OVERPASSES SHOWING THE CENTER BECOMING MORE EMBEDDED IN THE
OVERCAST. INTENSITY ESTIMATES...HOWEVER...ARE UNCHANGED...SO THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 55 KT. WHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT-TO-MODERATE IN THE SHORT TERM...MOST OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT AFTER THAT TIME. THESE CONDITIONS ARE DUE TO AN
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH MOVING WEST OF THE CENTER...CAUSING AN INCREASE IN
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE NOW SHOW
LESLIE ONLY AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS TIME. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE LGEM
MODEL. THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF LESLIE FINDING A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT IN THE LONG TERM...BUT ITS LIKELY SLOW MOTION AT THAT
TIME COULD CAUSE UPWELLING UNDER THE STORM...SO THE NHC FORECAST
WILL STAY CONSERVATIVE.

A SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES GIVES A GOOD INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF
295/16. THERE HAS BEEN A SUBTLE WESTWARD SHIFT IN MOST OF THE
RELIABLE MODEL GUIDANCE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...PERHAPS
INITIALLY DUE TO THE RIDGE BETWEEN KIRK AND LESLIE BEING A BIT
STRONGER THAN EXPECTED. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
FORECASTING A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN A FEW DAYS
TIME...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE LESLIE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND
NORTHWARD IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST...LITTLE
MOTION IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE IS CAUGHT IN LIGHT STEERING
CURRENTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE OFFICIAL NHC PREDICTION
IS SHIFTED WESTWARD TO COME CLOSER TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS... ALTHOUGH THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF
THE NEW FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 16.7N 51.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 17.7N 53.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 18.9N 55.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 20.1N 58.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 21.5N 60.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 24.1N 62.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 26.0N 62.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 27.0N 63.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13337
14. Tropicsweatherpr
3:58 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF
LESLIE IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
MASS...MOST LIKELY DUE TO LIGHT/MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB. IN ADDITION...NOAA BUOY 41041 REPORTED 1004 MB AND
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT AS THE CENTER PASSED TO THE NORTH.
BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/16. LESLIE IS CURRENTLY ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HR OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING OFF
OF THE COAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...SHOULD DEVELOP
INTO A CUT-OFF LOW BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS. THIS LOW IS
FORECAST TO BREAK THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT THE MID-/UPPER-LEVELS...
AND EXTEND FAR ENOUGH VERTICALLY DOWNWARD TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE AT
700-850 MB. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE LESLIE TO GRADUALLY TURN
NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CUT-OFF LOW AFTER THE 48 HR
POINT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
TRACK THROUGH 96 HR. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE TRACK GUIDANCE
STARTS TO DIVERGE AT 120 HR REGARDING HOW QUICKLY LESLIE SHOULD
ENCOUNTER THE WESTERLIES...AND BASED ON THIS SPREAD...THE TRACK
FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOWER AND MORE NORTHERLY MOTION NEAR THAT
TIME.

THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT LESLIE SHOULD REMAIN IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT/MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 36-48
HR...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT. AFTER THAT
TIME...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER SIGNIFICANT
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUT-OFF
LOW...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ENOUGH SHEAR TO SLOW OR HALT
INTENSIFICATION. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING A LITTLE
LESS STRENGTHENING THAN FOR THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...MOST NOTABLY
AFTER 48 HR. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND THE CURRENT SHIPS MODEL...SHOWING LESLIE BECOMING A
HURRICANE BY 24 HR AND SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH FROM
72-120 HR.

THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM BECOMING VERY LARGE...WHICH IS
REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT WIND FIELD FORECAST. AN ADDITIONAL
INCREASE IN SIZE APPEARS LIKELY AFTER 72 HR.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 14.7N 46.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 15.5N 49.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 16.7N 51.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 17.9N 54.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 19.3N 56.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 22.5N 60.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 26.5N 61.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 29.0N 61.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13337
13. Tropicsweatherpr
10:55 PM GMT on August 30, 2012
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

LESLIE HAS QUICKLY ORGANIZED TODAY WITH PROMINENT BANDING FEATURES
AND INCREASED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET TO 40 KT AS A BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND MICROWAVE ESTIMATES.
GLOBAL MODELS ALL BUILD AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE STORM
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH WOULD SEEM TO BE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT LESLIE WILL BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR TWO...AND
THERE ARE EVEN A COUPLE MODELS THAT SHOW IT NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE
STRENGTH IN A FEW DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS A LITTLE BELOW THE ROBUST LGEM/SHIPS GUIDANCE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WHILE THE TIMING IS IMPOSSIBLE TO
PINPOINT...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF LESLIE BECAME STRONGER
THAN FORECAST IN THE THREE-TO-FIVE DAY PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 280/18. LESLIE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS IT MOVES AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A SERIES OF TROUGHS IS
EXPECTED TO DIG BETWEEN 60W-70W...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO
MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH IN A FEW DAYS.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST THREE
DAYS...THEN SOME DIVERGENCE OCCURS ON WHICH TROUGH MIGHT RECURVE
THE CYCLONE. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...SPEED DIFFERENCES BECOME
VERY IMPORTANT ON WHETHER LESLIE MOVES QUICKLY OUT TO SEA...AS
SUGGESTED BY THE GFS...OR GETS STUCK UNDER A RIDGE...AS FORECAST BY
THE ECMWF. THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE...STILL A BIT FASTER AND WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM BECOMING RATHER LARGE...SO THE WIND
RADII FORECAST HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY EXPANDED.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 14.4N 45.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 15.3N 47.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 16.5N 50.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 17.7N 53.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 19.0N 56.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 22.0N 59.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 26.0N 61.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 28.5N 60.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13337
12. Tropicsweatherpr
3:31 PM GMT on August 30, 2012
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE
CONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND IS ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION...AND THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE
EMBEDDED ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE BAND. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
IS 30 KT...WHICH IS BASED ON A BLEND OF TAFB AND SAB 1200 UTC
ESTIMATES... THOUGH IT MIGHT BE A LITTLE STRONGER BASED ON THE
LATEST PICTURES. AS THE DEPRESSION MOVES OVER WARM WATERS DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...FURTHER STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE BUILDS NEAR THE SYSTEM. THE LONG RANGE
INTENSITY SEEMS RATHER UNCERTAIN AS THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW WILDLY
DIFFERENT SYNOPTIC PATTERNS. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...AND COULD BE CONSERVATIVE IF THE LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOWN BY THE GFS MATERIALIZES.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 275/17. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
DEPRESSION WILL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST SOON AS IT MOVES
TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...PARTIALLY RELATED TO
KIRK. WHILE THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD SOMEWHAT AS KIRK MOVES
OUT TO SEA...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW TROUGHING BETWEEN
60W-70W IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WHICH WILL PROBABLY TURN THE
CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THE LONG RANGE RELATED TO WHETHER THE SYSTEM RECURVES AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH OR GETS TRAPPED BENEATH A REBUILDING RIDGE. THE NHC
FORECAST IS A BIT FASTER AND WEST OF THE CONSENSUS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...BUT THIS FORECAST STILL KEEPS THE CYCLONE WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 14.1N 43.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 14.8N 45.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 15.9N 48.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 17.1N 52.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 18.5N 55.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 21.0N 59.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 24.5N 61.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 27.0N 61.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13337
11. Tropicsweatherpr
11:34 AM GMT on August 30, 2012
Near 100%.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY
FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY BE INITIATED
LATER THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13337
10. Tropicsweatherpr
10:48 AM GMT on August 30, 2012
From the San Juan NWS.

ON SUNDAY AREA WILL BECOME UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ON THE PERIPHERY OF DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE ACROSS THE CNTRL
ATLC. MODEL GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY TAKES THIS SYSTEM WNW NEXT FEW
DAYS RECURVING IT TO THE NORTH ONCE IT APPROACHES 60W SUN
AFTERNOON. CLOSEST FORECAST APPROACH TO THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE
LATE SUN AROUND 450 NM ENE OF ST. THOMAS ACCORDING TO THE GFES
MEAN. NOTE THAT THE POLAR TROUGH ACROSS THE NW ATLC LOOKS PRETTY
DEEP AND SHOULD RESULT IN THE SYSTEM TAKING A MORE NORTHWARD
HEADING ONCE IT APPROACHES 20N AND 60W.

RECENT IR IMAGES SHOW THE SYSTEM HAS LOST SOME OF ITS COLD CLOUD
TOPS AND DOES NOT LOOK AS GOOD AS IT DID A FEW HOURS AGO. CENTER
FIXES HAVE LOCATED THE SYSTEM IN THE VCNTY OF 14N AND 41W. A SHIP
REPORT WITH CALL SIGN C6JE5 INDICATED A SOUTHEAST WIND WITH A
1009.4 MB PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF WHERE NHC HAS BEEN TRACKING THE
LOW LEVEL CENTER WHICH MIGHT SUGGEST THE CENTER IS FARTHER SOUTH
NEAR 13.5N. WHILE TALKING TO NHC THIS MORNING WE THINK THIS IS A
BAD OBS AS IT DOES NOT FOLLOW CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FIXES
AND/OR MODEL FIELDS. ANYWAY...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS VERY
NEAR BUOY 41041 IN ABOUT 12-18 HRS AND SHOULD GIVE US MORE INFO ON
THE LOCATION...MIN PRES AND WIND FIELD. MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS
SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO BE EAST SWELLS WITH 6-8 FT SEAS SUN NIGHT
AND MON ACROSS ATLC WATERS AND ANEGADA PASSAGE.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13337
9. Tropicsweatherpr
11:37 PM GMT on August 29, 2012
Up to 70%.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 925 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE
SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13337
8. Tropicsweatherpr
6:13 PM GMT on August 29, 2012
Up to 60%.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 900
MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
IMMINENT...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO
20 MPH.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13337
7. Tropicsweatherpr
11:54 AM GMT on August 29, 2012
Up to 50%.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED A LITTLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13337
6. Tropicsweatherpr
12:09 AM GMT on August 29, 2012
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 400 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
DISTURBANCE HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13337
5. Tropicsweatherpr
8:16 PM GMT on August 28, 2012
Up to 20%.

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13337
4. Tropicsweatherpr
12:58 AM GMT on August 28, 2012
8 PM TWO.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT... OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13337
3. Tropicsweatherpr
12:06 PM GMT on August 27, 2012
A TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13337
2. Tropicsweatherpr
7:56 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
12z GFS continues to show a threat to Lesser Antilles,but todays 12z Euro run goes to the fishes.



Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13337
1. Tropicsweatherpr
2:31 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
This wave is now pouch 20L

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13337

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I am a tropical weather enthusiastic as I live on hurricane alley.

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