Twinkster's WunderBlog
Hurricane Dean. Kingston:173mph wind
Posted by: Twinkster, 4:47 PM GMT on June 07, 2007 +0
My 2007 Hurricane season forecast August update is:

16-18 Named storms

7-9 Hurricanes

4-6 Major Hurricanes

Hurricane Dean.Hurricane Dean is a very Powerful Category 4 Hurricane. The Outer eye wall of Dean has just recently brushed the extreme southern tip of Jamaica. The storm is forecast to strengthen into a Category 5 storm. The track after it interacts with the Yucatan peninsula is in doubt. I think if the ULL in the GOM slows down just slightly that it might bring Dean on a more northwesterly track towards southern Texas. The general model agreements bring the storm through the Yucatan and then into interior regions of Mexico. Cancun and Cozumel are in serious danger. I just left cancun today from my vacation and the airports are crazy.

Probability of Landfall within 30 miles of:
Cancun/Cozumel:85%
Belize: 60%


Probability of 2nd landfall within 30 mile of:
Corpus Christi: 5%
Interior Mexico: 95%


Waves both northeast and south east of windward and leeward islands. The wave southeast of the windward islands is less favorable to develop due to very high shear. Although, the system northeast of the leeward islands has the potential for tropical development over the next couple of days. The CMC and GFS both develop this system. The cmc has it strike Florida as a Major Hurricane. While the GFS only develops it into a weak tropical system that hits florida.


Probability of Wave Southeast of Windward islands:
93/94L:40%
TD:20%
TS:5%
Cat 1 or higher: >1%


Probability of wave northeast of leeward islands:
93/94L:80%
TD:55%
TS:35%
Cat 1:10%
Cat 2 or higher:>5%







African Waves IR imagery
picture

The wave is right of the coast of Africa and you can see with this picture that it is encountering the SAL which is the red, orange, and yellow
SAL
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1. Tampawxgirl 2:51 AM GMT on August 03, 2007    
First!!

Hey, I like the blog. Keep up the good work!

I think we need to remember that the season is JUST getting started. It's NOT off to a slow start. We should be expecting lots of storms.
Member Since: June 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 163
2. pcolaFL 2:55 AM GMT on August 03, 2007    
Good guesses Twink! Like the blog
4. Tropicnerd13 1:47 AM GMT on August 04, 2007    
good blog.
5. ROCKET11 1:58 AM GMT on August 04, 2007    
Great Blog , I agree on the #s.
Member Since: March 11, 2006 Posts: 26 Comments: 608
6. TStormSC 2:05 AM GMT on August 04, 2007    
Great graphics! What are you links?
Member Since: July 15, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 205
7. Twinkster 2:06 AM GMT on August 04, 2007    
I get most of my links from the NHC
Member Since: June 7, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 932
8. Tropicnerd13 2:18 AM GMT on August 04, 2007    
ok for your educational post, dont doubt every system for development. the idea is to make it about 30 or 40% chance. you know why.
9. HurricaneGeek 2:19 AM GMT on August 04, 2007    
Hey GREAT updaye!!..to bad its dead booo
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
12. Spetrm 9:19 PM GMT on August 08, 2007    
I find your heading kind of funny. During Cane season it's always possible for Florida to get hit with a Cane in two weeks. It's very probable too. But if one does hit florida in two weeks you can be like HA! I told ya. LOL
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 398 Comments: 9838
13. HurricaneGeek 2:12 AM GMT on August 09, 2007    
GREAT UPDATE..i look foward to what u have to say tommarow and throught the hurricane season!!
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
14. lightning10 2:25 AM GMT on August 09, 2007    
Might the Epac have another outstanding season and outshine the Alantic. ^_^.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 41 Comments: 629
15. HurricaneGeek 6:22 PM GMT on August 09, 2007    
Hey dude..Major Cane HUH? ...thats the day before school starts LOL..we will have 2 wait and see
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
16. HurricaneGeek 6:31 PM GMT on August 09, 2007    
Where do you tell if its Major or what it is regarless. If you can link me that would be great!!
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
17. cyclonebuster 8:57 PM GMT on August 09, 2007    
August 9th Update.Most of the computer models are starting to predict an active 2weeks in the tropical atlantic starting tuesday. The CMC, GFC and Ukmet predict a storm forming off the coast of Africa next week. Also the GFS long range forecast predicts that system to hit Florida on the 21st of August as a Major Hurricane. That is something we will have to watch.The CMC, and the FSU computer model form a storm in the carribean next week. The Nogaps and ECMWF develop a TD in the Southeastern GOM. These are somethings we have to watch as the next 2 weeks pass by.


Can the above models model my tunnels?
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 18782
19. Twinkster 9:43 PM GMT on August 09, 2007    
Cyclonebuster.

What Tunnels are you talking about?


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20. HurricaneGeek 9:44 PM GMT on August 09, 2007    
Hey twinkster
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
21. HurricaneGeek 9:44 PM GMT on August 09, 2007    
i replied to u e mail
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
22. Twinkster 9:46 PM GMT on August 09, 2007    
I saw. Thanks for looking at my blog continuously. Also I hope that the hurricane hits here right before school starts so I have time to catch up on my summer reading list
Member Since: June 7, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 932
23. Tazmanian 9:46 PM GMT on August 09, 2007    
hello
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111354
24. Twinkster 9:47 PM GMT on August 09, 2007    
so taz wat do you think of my blog?
Member Since: June 7, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 932
25. HurricaneGeek 9:48 PM GMT on August 09, 2007    
Oh man...yea me to ...only for the sumer reading not a disaster!!LOL
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
26. Tazmanian 9:48 PM GMT on August 09, 2007    
: Twinkster it cool
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111354
27. HurricaneGeek 9:49 PM GMT on August 09, 2007    
TAz is right..good job
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
28. Twinkster 9:51 PM GMT on August 09, 2007    
Taz how did you get so many people to look at your blog
Member Since: June 7, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 932
29. Twinkster 9:52 PM GMT on August 09, 2007    
also that wave over africa that should move off tomorrow or saturday looks reeally good right now. Is this the wave that the computer models are developing west of the cape verde Islands
Member Since: June 7, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 932
30. HurricaneGeek 9:55 PM GMT on August 09, 2007    
Twinkster..that wave...i THINK it is
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
31. HurricaneGeek 9:55 PM GMT on August 09, 2007    
well Drakeon said so
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
32. Twinkster 12:57 PM GMT on August 10, 2007    
good morning everyone
Member Since: June 7, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 932
33. HurricaneGeek 2:45 AM GMT on August 20, 2007    
GRAET update...The gfs says weak TS and CMC says Major ( i think cat 4) so IF it were to it i'd say iin the middle!!!
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
34. Tropicnerd13 3:36 AM GMT on August 20, 2007    
tell hg to comment on my blog. now.

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