Hurricane Dean. Kingston:173mph wind
My 2007 Hurricane season forecast August update is:
16-18 Named storms
4-6 Major Hurricanes
Hurricane Dean.Hurricane Dean is a very Powerful Category 4 Hurricane. The Outer eye wall of Dean has just recently brushed the extreme southern tip of Jamaica. The storm is forecast to strengthen into a Category 5 storm. The track after it interacts with the Yucatan peninsula is in doubt. I think if the ULL in the GOM slows down just slightly that it might bring Dean on a more northwesterly track towards southern Texas. The general model agreements bring the storm through the Yucatan and then into interior regions of Mexico. Cancun and Cozumel are in serious danger. I just left cancun today from my vacation and the airports are crazy.
Probability of Landfall within 30 miles of:
Probability of 2nd landfall within 30 mile of:
Corpus Christi: 5%
Interior Mexico: 95%
Waves both northeast and south east of windward and leeward islands. The wave southeast of the windward islands is less favorable to develop due to very high shear. Although, the system northeast of the leeward islands has the potential for tropical development over the next couple of days. The CMC and GFS both develop this system. The cmc has it strike Florida as a Major Hurricane. While the GFS only develops it into a weak tropical system that hits florida.
Probability of Wave Southeast of Windward islands:
Cat 1 or higher: >1%
Probability of wave northeast of leeward islands:
Cat 2 or higher:>5%
African Waves IR imagery
The wave is right of the coast of Africa and you can see with this picture that it is encountering the SAL which is the red, orange, and yellow