Twinkster's WunderBlog

2011 Hurricane Season Forecast

Posted by: Twinkster, 2:34 AM GMT on June 02, 2011

Good evening. Looks like we have some activity on the 1st day of hurricane season.

Time for my annual hurricane forecast prediction.

Here was my forecast from last year(you can check my blog if you don't believe me) actual season totals are in parentheses

Named Storms:19(19)
Hurricanes:11(12)
Major Hurricanes:6(5)

2011 Hurricane Season forecast

Named Storms:17
Hurricanes:9
Major Hurricanes:6

Key points of forecast
1. High SST's- above normal
2. Lower than average pressure expected over MDR during peak months
3. Weak La Nina/ Neutral Enso typically translate to active seasons
4.I strongly take into consideration NOAA and CSU predictions and add some independent thought
5.just an amateur take everything with grain of salt
6. I have a feeling most hurricanes this season will be majors
7. ITCZ farther north than climatalogical average
8. I expect at least one U.S. landfall this season: reasons including active tornado season and neutral ENSO increases landfall probablities

Everyone be prepared and stay safe!!!!!!!

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Updated 2010 Hurricane Season forecast

Posted by: Twinkster, 3:34 AM GMT on August 15, 2010

I know we are just over 2 months into the season, however, I am going to issue and updated hurricane forecast based on the conditions I see for the rest of the summer.I will be doing this month by monthAugust- August has so far begun slowly with Tropical Storm Colin being the lone named system. This is due in part to shear and dry air being pumped into invests due to the dominance of TUTT upper level lows across the atlantic basin. As the rest of the month progresse...

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92L and 93L TD#6 and TD #7

Posted by: Twinkster, 12:28 AM GMT on May 15, 2008

My Forecast is:15-17 Named Storms7 Hurricanes3-5 Major Hurricanes8am TWO92L has become less organized over night with the LLC practically dissipating however there is a MLC which is embedded with all the convection that could work itself down to the surface the next day or two as it continues towards the islandsAs far as where it will go depends on how strong it gets. If this thing stays weak and doesn't organize it would probably head more west into the Caribbean a...

Updated: 8:29 PM GMT on August 11, 2008

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Hurricane Dean. Kingston:173mph wind

Posted by: Twinkster, 4:47 PM GMT on June 07, 2007

My 2007 Hurricane season forecast August update is:16-18 Named storms7-9 Hurricanes4-6 Major HurricanesHurricane Dean.Hurricane Dean is a very Powerful Category 4 Hurricane. The Outer eye wall of Dean has just recently brushed the extreme southern tip of Jamaica. The storm is forecast to strengthen into a Category 5 storm. The track after it interacts with the Yucatan peninsula is in doubt. I think if the ULL in the GOM slows down just slightly that it might bring D...

Updated: 2:40 AM GMT on August 20, 2007

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