Weather456's Tropical Weather Blog

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Yep almost forgo to mention that little detail...rain and more rain

Update

Refer to this satellite animation

91L Invest is moving into the Caribbean, bringing, showers and isolated thunderstorms to the Southern Antilles and parts of Venezuela. 91L is expected to clear the area within the next 12 hrs, but some lingering moisture may enhance additional showers over the area. The disturbance will continue through the Caribbean Sea but little development is expected due to the current poor organization and unfavorable winds in the Caribbean. This area will still be monitored because wind shear has been trending downwards in the Caribbean despite it remaining too high for development.

Now, the area just behind 91L is a tropical wave along 53W south of 14N moving off towards the west with a 1010 mb low attached near 9N. This area will be monitored as it is expected to deepen to 1009 mb and upper winds seem marginal to favorable over the disturbance.

Vigorous convection along the ITCZ east of 42W.

Showers and thunderstorms in the Gulf of Mexico is assoicated with surface speed convergence enhanced by upper divergent flow east of an upper level circulation in the W Gulf. The lastest visible imagery and surface observations showed a mid-level circulation associated with this feature moving off towards the north near 24N/85W. Conditions currently are only marginally for development but should improve as the system moves towards the north over the next 24 hrs. It will be monitored for signs of development

A tropical wave exiting the African Coast along 16W.

The 06Z GFS is predicting development both in the SW Caribbean and Central ATL later next week.

The tropics remain relatively quite today. The tropical wave behind 91L encountered very unfavorable upper winds as expected so no development expected there.

The other area of disturbed weather lies in the Western Gulf of Mexico where satellite water vapor imagery, surface observations and QuikSCAT indicated an upper low centered near 23N/93W is interacting with a surface low at 19N/96W and an associated surface trough over the Bay of Campeche. Recent visible imagery indicated mid-upper level cyclonic turning associated with this feature with the surface dominated by southwesterlies. Conditions over the next 48 hrs remain only marginally favorable for development of a tropical depression. Regardless of development, this system is expected to make its way towards the southwest under the influence of upper ridge over Northern Mexico and the SW USA.

Elsewhere, development is not expected and none of the computer models are hinting development over the next 24 hrs.