Is the pattern changing?.... and the Week Ahead
A good Saturday Afternoon to everyone. Today I will be discussing the possible pattern shift (yes, I mean one that might actually result in snow from coastal storms!), and my forecast for the week ahead.
This afternoon, it is fairly quiet across the bulk of the nation. We have a cold front pushing through the Mid-west towards the East, and the remains of the storm system yesterday morning located in South Florida. The cold front doesn't have a lot of moisture to work with, and is only producing a few areas of flurries and rain showers around the eastern Great Lakes, most of which is not reaching the ground.
By tomorrow afternoon, the current front will have pushed offshore, and a second reinforcing front, which could bring a snow shower or two will be moving in from the Northwest.
The next week will be fairly uneventful, and except for the chance of some rain on Thursday, will be fairly nice with moderating temperatures throughout the week.
After next week, the possibility of a snowier and colder pattern comes into play. Numerous models including the GFS, ECMWF, and CMC suggest the possibility of a winter weather event, possibly featuring snow or ice on tap for next weekend, and again the weekend after that. We are still to far away to make a definite conclusion on whether or not these storms come to be reality, but there are promising signs of a pattern change. Better late then never, I always say.....
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WxGeekVA
The weekend ahead, and long range pattern thoughts.
I apologize for not having an entry in a while, I have neglected to make entries in a while until the topic of blogs came up in a discussion with a friend. I fully intend to make at least bi-weekly posts from now on, and to keep them as simple as possible.
This next week looks very interesting from a precipitation standpoint, as there will finally be temperatures cold enough for a snowstorm, and there will be a storm that tries to grab enough cold air and move close enough to shore to create a slight possibility for a snow shower in our area on Saturday afternoon.
GFS 12Z run valid at 6AM on Saturday via PSU e-wall
I do think that the system will be tracking a little farther north than the computer models are suggesting, as there has been a southern bias all winter with theses storm types.
In the short range, a warm front is lifting northward in association with a storm which is currently bringing severe thunderstorms and flooding to Texas and Louisiana.
NCEP/NOAA forecast for about noon tomorrow showing rain moving towards the greater D.C area.
Some of this rain may be heavy, and don't be shocked if there is a rumble of thunder in the heavier bands of shower activity.
After this system moves through, a shot of fresh arctic air moves into the eastern third of the nation behind a cold front. Temperatures will be much more seasonable, and there might be a few flurries around with a weak disturbance that comes through on Sunday night, but with no accumulations expected. Below is the expected surface analysis for noon on Sunday:
NCEP/NOAA
Afterwards, a southwesterly flow similar to what we have seen for the last two days should set up bringing another round of unseasonably warm high temperatures next week.
Sorry snow lovers, but this is NOT the winter for you. The long range ensembles show fleeting cold shots, but a warm pattern more typical for March is dominating the country, and has been since November. I don't expect a shift in the next few weeks, and by the time such a shift does occur, it will be too late to cause snow issues in most of the Northeast.
I will be back in a few days with updates and possibly a look back on the winter so far.
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WxGeekVA
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Updated: 1:11 AM GMT on January 26, 2012
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