MDR SSTs for analogue years
Just for the heck of it, I wanted to look at analogue years of SST in the MDR and compare to this year's apparently alarming amount of warmth.
Warning: Great big caveats exist for years before 1979, the launch of our first satellite capable of measuring surface temperatures, globally.
The following plots are the April mean skin temperature from the NCEP reanalysis.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/db_search/DBSearch.pl?Variable=Skin+Temperature&Dataset=CDC+De rived+NCEP+Reanalysis+Products+Surface+Flux
1958:
1966:
1978:
1998:
2005 (though not really an analogue, IMO):
And, 2010:
Let's plot 1958 again, here, for easy comparison to 2010:
(tried to keep the color contours on a consistent color scale as best I could, still not perfect)
Really? Is the MDR not astoundingly warmer than other years?
Well, the April 15 SST should be similar to the reanalysis skin temperature:
...and is.
What does it all mean, Batman? Ummm, well, seems that the MDR looks like April in the MDR, mostly. And is similar, but not much warmer (if not slightly cooler in some areas) than other years following an El Nino.
Clearly, some of the early years were warm, but were they really that warm? 1958 couldn't really have been as warm as the plot suggests, could it? Looks like the current MDR SST is really only much warmer than the 1958 values in the northeast corner of the MDR, an area where storms that cross shouldn't make it to any landmass...as in no storm in the NE corner of the MDR will miss a recurve before North America.
It is warmer, overall, than most years. 1958 looks like the best comparative year. It sure would be a lesser of the evils to have a hurricane season like 1958:
Here's hoping...
Reader Comments
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Im going to Gotham soon.
LOL. Well, if we were to have another season 1958...not much need for plywood in Northern Gulf. Yeah, right.
It only takes one and nothing says it can't happen (these are things Patrap knows well...not really typing them out for his benefit)
Interestingly, I was reading this from NOAA the other day and thought I would shear, oops, I mean share :)
NOAA ATTRIBUTES RECENT INCREASE IN HURRICANE ACTIVITY
TO NATURALLY OCCURRING MULTI-DECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY
Hmm, seems that certain words like "recent" shouldn't be in the title of documents like that...
LoL, when it was written nearly 5 years ago, it was recent and I am just that much older now. My 5 year old reminds me of that daily. It was Gamera movie night tonight (2006 version), fun learning stuff :)
I hope I did not ruffle the feathers with my shared read....... L8r > and thanks for your science !
1. 2005 had an early onset of rainfall in the Sahel, thus less SAL inhibition early in the season. Not sold that this year will be similar. We could see a positive rainfall anomaly this year and still not suppress the SAL like 2005.
2. That year was such an anomaly, statistically, that it would be hard to consider it an analogue for any other...in advance, anyway. We have had warm SSTs without a year like that one before. It will happen again, of course, but wow so far and away from anything else we've seen (except maybe 1933).
3. Everything was perfect, from a favorable QBO to a spiked MJO. Those are tough to really predict, but 2010 is not likely to have the same perfect scenario.
There are others around that can chime in a little better. I am more of the data analysis type without the tropical skills, to be honest.
Of course you didn't ruffle feathers! Still interesting, just would really like to see something similar with current info...
Thanks for shearing...lol.
So I guess I'm asking... what caused the extreme uplift in atmospheric moisture in 2005? It couldn't have been a positive MJO the entire time, and how much do above-average SSTs really play as far as adding moisture to the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere?
Also, since you mentioned SAL, how easy (or hard) is it to predict SAL dust episodes?
Thanks for responding!
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