update Friday morning
Just a quick note to say that I am still looking at a chance of snow later this weekend. The NWS has not yet forecasted it, but I would not be surprised if they don't mention it later today. I will have a more complete update a bit later, but I am not convinced this will be anything major. If it happens.
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update Wednesday evening
I hate to say this, but it is still too early to know anything with certainty. The models are not doing a good job with this. One of the issues is with timing; a couple models have precip happening Sunday while others wait until Mon or Tues.
At this moment I would say this is a rain event for most of us, but, there is a part of me that is noticing a trend and a model bias that leads me to believe Sunday could be colder than predicted by the models.
I will have another update Thursday or Friday depending on the data. In any scenario I am not seeing this as a major storm, so even if there is snow it will not be major.
Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) and I will update my Weather Phone as needed (443-470-9804)
original post Tuesday evening
I continue to struggle with the forecast for this weekend, and as I was doing my research I came across this quote from the latest edition of the local NWS forecast discussion for meteorologists "FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE WEEKEND AND ERY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS DEVELOP A REX BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE GREAT PLAINS". So I don't feel so bad now.
The models, this far out, are doing their usual dance of showing a storm and taking away a storm. Most of today it was taking away the weekend storm, now it is potentially showing it again. This is why, especially this Winter, I do not put stock in long-range forecasting. But, I do feel I need to let you know of impending snow. Thus far this Winter the model data has shown many storms only to take them away a day or so before the event. Could this happen again? It could, although I am not talking about a major storm; and not using the "B" word.
BOTTOM LINE: There remains the possibility for either snow or a wintry mix either Saturday night/Sunday morning, or Sunday night/Monday morning, depending on the model you wish to follow.
MY TAKE: I will play meteorologist and say we have an equal chance for mixed precip or snow late this weekend. Sorry, but that's the best I can say at this moment given it is only Tuesday and this Winter has been difficult to get a snow storm to happen. Maybe I am being too cautious, but I've been excited multiple times this year only to have my hopes dashed.
BUT, I am liking this a bit more then the other chances since there does appear to be a strong High pressure system in Canada, the snow cover to our north will help with the cooling needed, the Bay is cold, the NAO is trending negative. These are factors we have not yet seen this Winter, but essential components for us to see snowfall in MD.
So, I will keep watching this and will keep you posted. I will have another update probably late Wednesday evening. Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for posts on the weather and interesting tidbits on the weather from others. I will update my Weather Phone as needed (443-470-9804)
Updated: 1:50 PM GMT on February 03, 2012
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