update Sunday evening
The temps are dropping and the rain is moving north, although may not reach Balt City. The overnight hours will be the time for accumulation. I would revise my accumulation rates for Baltimore and north to a dusting and Southern MD to 1 - 2 inches. What a storm this has been to forecast! To be honest, I do believe this is our last shot for snow for this winter.
update Sunday afternoon
I am looking at the data now, and the shift to the north appears to be happening (as I had been saying), and snow is already falling in Southern MD, a couple hours ahead of schedule. It was to start as rain, but started as snow. I am not necessarily stating my original forecast will verify, but what I am saying is that the model data did not completely capture this storm. As I have been saying, something is missing and doesn't feel right to me. What I need to now see is how this system pushes northward in real time. I will have another update later this evening, but know this - the storm is not dead.
original post Sun morning
Well, here goes .... On the surface of it this storm appears to doing what all the storms this winter has done; fizzle out for us in MD. But, there is just something not right about some of the dynamics I am seeing. This is why I keep waiting with my updates, trying to figure out what is not adding up. But, here goes:
ACCUMULATION: I see those north of Baltimore seeing an inch; south of Baltimore 1 - 2; Southern MD 2+ inches. But, I reserve the right to be wrong and these numbers jump.....
PRECIP TYPE: May start with rain turning to all snow. A big uncertainty is how soon the change over will occur, and with the warm ground and warm Bay, it could be more rain before any change to all snow.
TIMING: Officially, I don't see the precip starting until later in the afternoon, with the change over to snow until 5 or so. But, there is some indication of precip in VA sooner than forecast.
DISCUSSION: As I mentioned previously, the models have put the low all over the place in the last day or so. There was consistency in the data most of the week until now. The current storm system is not as organized as it was over TX, hence the latest model data is taking this into account. As I mentioned yesterday, had the low stayed strong it would naturally shift it to the north, but as this does not appear to be the case, the low is staying to our south. But, there are some indications that the model data, especially the short term NAM model, may be missing some data which "could" skew it's results. But then again, looking at the radar this is not an impressive storm. But, I am still unsure about this forecast. Don't know why, which is very unscientific of me.
I will have another update later today. Follow me on Twitter (@wxmanmd) and my Weather Phone is now updated. Feel free to leave me messages with snow reports or questions on the phone (443-470-9804)
Updated: 2:03 AM GMT on February 20, 2012
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