I provide a weather email service for people in MD. I am a storm chaser & Skywarn spotter. For daily weather tidbits follow me on Twitter: @wxmanMD.
By: cws6196, 2:24 AM GMT on May 31, 2012
It looks like Friday afternoon into the evening we will see strong storms, super cells, forming over Central MD. A cold front will be moving in from the Great Lakes, and ahead of the front storms will be able to form. The timing of the dynamics occurs during the heating of the day, adding to the instability and storm potential.
TIMING: Late afternoon, after 2:00, into the evening.
THREATS: Damaging wind, flooding rain and potential for tornadoes to form.
Follow me on Twitter (@wxmanmd) daily and during the storm. Dont have a Twitter account go to www.twitter.com/wxmanmd (no registration required). I will update my Weather Phone as needed ( 443-470-9804)
I will post another update later Thursday.
Thurs night update
Not too much to add to my previous post. Severe storms and tornadoes are probable Friday afternoon/evening. I am looking at the bulk of the storms starting after 5:00 pm into the evening.
I will have a more complete update later in the morning after I look at the current data.
Please be aware that this has the potential to be bad. Keep an eye on the sky and a weather radio handy. I will post on Twitter (@wxmanmd) and keep my Weather Phone updated ( 443-470-9804).
Updated: 3:21 AM GMT on June 01, 2012
By: cws6196, 6:32 PM GMT on May 29, 2012
The conditions are looking favorable for thunderstorms, some severe, later this afternoon and evening. The heating of the day, and moisture in the air will collide with the approaching cold front from the NW late tonight. Prior to its arrival, the unstable air mass will begin to rise and blossom into thunderstorms. As the winds shift to the north with the cold front's arrival, gusty winds will filter down from the upper atmosphere.
TIMING: I expect to see storms develop after 4:00 into the evening hours.
THREATS: Heavy rain, damaging wind and hail.
WATCHES/WARNINGS: As of this writing none have been issued, but I would not be surprised to see at least thunderstorm watches issued. Flood statements may also be needed later in the evening.
Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd. My Weather Phone will be updated as needed (443-470-9804).
By: cws6196, 2:13 AM GMT on May 21, 2012
Looking at the latest data it appears TS Alberto will not impact central nor S MD. He is still along the SC coast but is drifting out to sea.
We will see rain the next couple days with scattered thunderstorms, but these are NOT from the TS. Over the next couple days a Low pressure system will move into VA along with a cold front, both contributing to the rain.
By: cws6196, 4:37 PM GMT on May 19, 2012
Officially, hurricane season starts June 1, but we already have an area of interest (called an Invest) off the South Carolina coast. The National Hurricane Center is currently giving this a 50% chance for developing into a tropical storm. Currently the models are all over the place with this system, and will continue to be so until it is a better organized system. Thunderstorms are starting to develop near the center which is typically a sign of strengthening.
Honestly, right now I think the only thing this could do to effect us is to bring much needed rain. But, I will continue to monitor and keep you all updated. I would not be surprised to see this develop into at least a tropical depression if not storm. More updates later in the weekend.
Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather updates and weather tidbits.
By: cws6196, 1:10 PM GMT on May 15, 2012
This is rain that we need! More is on the way, but there will be a lull in the action for a few hours now. Given the moisture in the atmosphere and an approaching Low pressure system (rising air), the chance for thunderstorms exists.
TIMING: Rain will start again in a few hours, but thunderstorm activity should hold off until after 3:00pm to allow for the heating of the day and the approach of the Low.
THREATS: Some of these storms could be severe with wind, hail and lightning the main threats. Wind gusts and strong downdrafts could cause damage. There is a 2% risk for a tornado; unlikely, but still be aware of your surroundings.
Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmandmd) for updates on storm activity and weather tidbits. I will update my Weather Phone as needed today (443-470-9804).
By: cws6196, 3:59 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
We need the rain, so today's and tomorrow's showers are a good sign. Some of the rain we see could be quite heavy at times, and there is a slight chance for scattered, non-severe, thunderstorms.
Below is an article from the Baltimore Sun talking about a new forecast model from NOAA. This new model should help in what is termed "now-casting", distinct from forecasting, the former focuses on current conditions what may happen in another hour from that time. This is vital information especially concerning strong thunderstorms which could produce damaging hail, damaging wind or tornadoes.
Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for storm updates and weather tidbits.
By Scott Dance
9:43 a.m. EDT, May 14, 2012
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration earlier this month launched a more accurate weather forecast model it says improves predictions of quickly developing severe weather, and it was developed in part in Maryland.
The model is called “Rapid Refresh” and was developed at NOAA centers in Camp Springs and Boulder, Colo.
Like its predecessor, it will adjust forecasts hourly based on changing conditions, but it will use a more advanced weather prediction model that has shown to more accurately pinpoint areas of severe weather.
By: cws6196, 1:18 PM GMT on May 04, 2012
Ok, I know I said this the other day and nothing happened, but this afternoon into the evening there is a good chance for scattered thunderstorms. What happened the other day is that the frontal boundary I had mentioned did not shift where it was forecast to shift, causing low temps for central and Southern MD, while those in Carroll county and west saw some storms as their temps where in the 70s and humid. Last night's storms in northern central MD were impressive, and I know I didn't say anything about them happening, but that is because the data originally indicated no threat. I know it's not an excuse, but I find it interesting that thus far this Spring's storms are resembling our Winter weather in that places west and north of us are getting the storms and rains.
Today's storms, though, are a different set up, and once the marine layer (that which is now causing the fog and clouds) lifts, as it should, the day will heat up in time for an approaching cold front to arrive from the west. The cold air mass hitting the warmer humid air mass gives us the potential for strong storms.
THREAT: The main threat will be strong gusty, potentially damaging winds and hail. Frequent lightning is to be expected as well. No tornadoes expected.
TIMING: Storms should hold off until late this afternoon, more than likely after 4:00pm into the evening hours. I expect storms to be out of the area before midnight.
These storms will be scattered and pop up in nature. Keep an eye on the sky if you are outside. Remember, if you can hear the thunder, you are close enough to be hit by lightning. Just sayin'.
Follow me on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for updates during these storms. I will update my Weather Phone as needed (443-470-9804).
By: cws6196, 1:16 PM GMT on May 02, 2012
This morning we had a nice little thunder storm to get us going into our day. What a way to wake up! Seriously, I liked it! There is a threat for more, and stronger, thunderstorms later this afternoon. A frontal boundary will be stalled just to our north in PA allowing warm and humid air to build into central and Southern MD. The more this air mass builds, the more unstable the atmosphere, the stronger the storms.
THREAT: It appears the greatest threat for us will be gusty strong winds and hail. Of course, lightning is always dangerous. I don't expect any tornado formation.
TIMING: This is difficult to state since the storms will be triggered by the heating of the day and build up of humidity. My best estimate is after 3:00pm, but if the day heats quicker than that time frame needs to be moved up. As the sun goes down the threat of storms will diminish.
I expect the NWS to issue some sort of watches/warnings as the day progresses. Keep an eye on the sky all day as these storms could form rather quickly.
Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) and I will have my Weather Phone updated as needed today (443-470-9804)