hurricaneben's WunderBlog: Covering Atlantic & EPAC Basins Since '09

Significant Tornado Outbreak Likely Today, Prepare Now

By: hurricaneben, 1:23 PM GMT on April 14, 2012

It's pretty rare that I back away from the tropical spectrum in my posts, but this time it's worth it. The SPC has highlighted portions of Oklahoma, Kansas and E Nebraska 'high', the second time they did so this year (the other time was in early March, where a widespread episode of strong tornadoes and severe weather killed at least 40 people and caused over $1.5 billion USD in damage in a line from Alabama to Indiana). So, you definitely know that things could get bad. Prepare all you can now, if you live in OK/KS/NE. Long tracked, violent tornadoes are a disturbingly high possibility and the threat doesn't end there--large, damaging hail, torrential downpours, possible flash flooding and destructive wind gusts in excess of 70 MPH will prove a scary ride for those who are traveling in the area. This is all thanks to warm, unstable atmosphere and a developing area of low pressure. Stay tuned to your local TV and radio for more information and possible activation(s) of the Emergency Alert System or some other random source of public information.

Updated: 1:24 PM GMT on April 14, 2012

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April Update: Relatively Quiet Hurricane Season Ahead...

By: hurricaneben, 1:07 AM GMT on April 09, 2012

...Though it may not be overly so. As many of you know, the SSTs are definitely on a cooling trend this year compared to the last 2 years. Accompanied by that factor is a decent probability that a weak El Nino will develop by summer. This would generally make way for less active seasons. So I'm just going to make an early prediction. It doesn't look like the El Nino will be all that strong if it develops, but it could very well be present enough to significantly decrease total activity in relative to last year. So, no, I'm not calling for a particularly inactive hurricane season (in the Atlantic). I kinda agree with the CSU, although they probably are a bit too low in my prediction. They called for 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes in a recent meeting. What I'm calling for, is as follows: 11-13 named storms, 4-6 hurricanes and 2-3 major hurricanes. So pretty much on task with an average season, but it seems very quiet because of recent hyperactive years (2005, 2008, 2010 and 2011).

BONUS: Retirement Predictions
Here's a bonus card I wanna lay down: my predictions for retired 2011 Atlantic hurricane names. For a quick recap: Hurricane Irene caused severe damage along the US Eastern Seaboard and 50+ deaths. My call is that Irene will very likely be retired, if not certainly. Quickly to wrap up this blog post, Tropical Storm Lee also has a chance due to the record rainfall/flooding that added problems to Irene in the Central/East US but because it was never a full fledged major hurricane (or hurricane, for that matter) and its damage wasn't catastrophic, the bets would be harder. I'd say 40-50% chance for Lee. Any opinions or predictions, just comment.

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About hurricaneben

Will devote this hurricane season to provide up-to-the-minute, basic information when a tropical system is threatening land. Both basins included.