...Though it may not be overly so. As many of you know, the SSTs are definitely on a cooling trend this year compared to the last 2 years. Accompanied by that factor is a decent probability that a weak El Nino will develop by summer. This would generally make way for less active seasons. So I'm just going to make an early prediction. It doesn't look like the El Nino will be all that strong if it develops, but it could very well be present enough to significantly decrease total activity in relative to last year. So, no, I'm not calling for a particularly inactive hurricane season (in the Atlantic). I kinda agree with the CSU, although they probably are a bit too low in my prediction. They called for 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes in a recent meeting. What I'm calling for, is as follows: 11-13 named storms, 4-6 hurricanes and 2-3 major hurricanes. So pretty much on task with an average season, but it seems very quiet because of recent hyperactive years (2005, 2008, 2010 and 2011).
BONUS: Retirement Predictions
Here's a bonus card I wanna lay down: my predictions for retired 2011 Atlantic hurricane names. For a quick recap: Hurricane Irene caused severe damage along the US Eastern Seaboard and 50+ deaths. My call is that Irene will very likely be retired, if not certainly. Quickly to wrap up this blog post, Tropical Storm Lee also has a chance due to the record rainfall/flooding that added problems to Irene in the Central/East US but because it was never a full fledged major hurricane (or hurricane, for that matter) and its damage wasn't catastrophic, the bets would be harder. I'd say 40-50% chance for Lee. Any opinions or predictions, just comment.