After striking the Yucatan last night as a category one and causing minor to moderate wind damage (not all the damage reports are in yet), Ernesto has weakened into a 45-MPH tropical storm by the time it emerged into the Bay Of Campache earlier today and has now began to restrengthen as it heads towards the Mexican state of Campeche. Squalls are already beginning to affect these Gulf Coastlines and Ernesto may approach hurricane strength before final landfall sometime tomorrow afternoon. Isolated rainfall amounts near one foot may lead to dangerous flash flooding which appears to be more of a concern than the winds at this time.
Invest 92L is continuing to steadily organize as it heads westward at 10 to 15 MPH. TD/TS formation is now becoming a rather strong possibility within' the next few days. Models are all over the place--some take it south of the N Lesser Antilles, some into the Lesser Antilles and others north of the Lesser Antilles. But the main threat to land at this time appears to be those islands. It's days away from impact and not even a TD yet, so there's no need to take it very seriously just yet...only something to keep an occasional eye on. THE NHC gives this a 50% chance of TC formation by Friday evening.