Tropical Outlook: TD07/93L
SAL: Saharan Air Layer
LLC: Low Level Circulation
EPAC: Eastern Pacific Ocean
EATL: Eastern Atlantic Ocean
MCP: Minimum Central Pressure
CDO: Central Dense Overcast
GOM: Gulf of Mexico
NHC: National Hurricane Center
UKMET: United Kingdom Met Office Model
NOGAPS: Navy Operational Global Prediction System
CMC: Environment Canada Global Environmental Multiscale Model
ECMWF: The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast’s Global Model
GFS: Global Forecasting System
ITCZ: Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone
COC: Center of Circulation
Good Afternoon Everyone!
TD07 continues to fire off convection of the COC, however the LLC is elongated in nature thus inhibiting further development.
TD07: Lets start off with TD07. As per the latest advisory by the NHC the winds are at 30kt and is moving in a westward motion 270 at 21kt, and a MCP of 1009mb. The NHC has just recently issued Tropical Storm watches for some of the Lesser Antilles islands. Over the last 24 hours there has been little change to this system. It is still very ragged and continues to struggle with the trade winds and with SAL to its north and west. It is questionable that TD07 even has a closed LLC at this point. The 850 mb vorticity values are not the greatest either. The only thing that this system currently has going for it is that it continues to fire off convection. Most reliable computer models including the ECMWF, GFS, and the UKMET dissipate TD07 somewhere in the Central Caribbean, for as it will be encountering many of the same conditions as Ernesto including sinking air, and high trade winds. One of the only model that continues to hold TD07 together through the Caribbean is the CMC. The CMC takes 07 up into the GOM as a weak TD. I would be a bit hesitant to go with that scenario due to the fact that it is already such a weak system and it is entering into an even more hostile environment. The storm is currently in an area of low shear, but it will be entering into a less favorable environment. I would give this storm a 60% chance of degenerating back into an open wave sometime within the next 48-72 hours.
Wind shear will be picking up in the vicinity of TD07.
850 MB Vorticity show an elongated COC.
93L: As I stated in my last entry, 93L is going to act very differently over water than it did over land. This is very much apparent at this time, for the system is losing quite a bit of convection due to the infiltration of dry air. 93L currently has a very large circulation, and for any development to occur the LLC must consolidate. Most models are still onboard with developing 93L in the long run. The forecast path should take it up and out to sea with Bermuda being the only land threat. Statistically, storms that develop this far north have a greater tendency to curve back out to sea and just become an issue for the shipping lanes. I would have to agree with the NHC’s 30% of development within the next 48 hours. Unless 93L can overcome the dry air and start to fire off convection soon, it will take a very long time to develop, not to mention it is over cooler waters than other systems that form farther south and break off of the ITCZ.
Dry Saharan air continues to disrupt the development of convection of 93L.
Satellite shows a less than impressive 93L.
Tropical Outlook: The remnants of Ernesto will most likely develop in the EPAC sometime over the next 48 hours. Even though it is technically “Ernesto” it will be designated a different number and a different name. “Ernesto” could very well be a threat for those in Baja California. Some moisture associated with a tropical wave will also continue to bring the Florida peninsula a high chance of rain over the weekend. Some storms can cause localized flooding and strong winds.
Remnants from Ernesto have a very good chance of developing in the EPAC within the next 48 hours.
Thanks everyone for reading!
Also, these forecasts do not reflect the OFFICIAL forecasts from the NHC; please consult the NHC for official public forecast on all active Tropical Cyclones.