nigel20's WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: nigel20, 3:47 PM GMT on March 26, 2012 | +6 |
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Electrical Engineering student that is interested in weather, especially tropical weather.
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APRSWXNET Kingston JM
Kingston,
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| Elevation: | 731 ft |
| Temperature: | 83.0 °F |
| Dew Point: | 73.0 °F |
| Humidity: | 71% |
| Wind: | 6.0 mph from the SSW |
| Wind Gust: | 0.0 mph |
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Updated: 12:57 PM EST on February 06, 2013
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...ERNESTO GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD... ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT APPROACHING THE CENTER OF THE STORM...
8:00 PM EDT Sun Aug 5
Location: 15.4°N 79.6°W
Moving: W at 20 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph
Bulletin 15
TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT… ERNESTO ABOUT TO START MOVING AWAY FROM JAMAICA
The TROPICAL STORM WARNING continues for Jamaica as Tropical Storm Ernesto remains in the vicinity of the island.
At 4:00 p.m. the centre of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near Latitude 15.3 degrees North, Longitude 78.6 degrees West; about 355 kilometres (220 miles) south-southwest of Kingston, or 330 kilometres (205 miles) south of Negril Point, Jamaica.
Ernesto is now moving towards the west near 32 km/h (20 mph) and a gradual turn toward the west-northwest with a further decrease in forward speed is expected during the next 48 hours.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 km/h (50 mph), with higher gusts, and some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 km (125 miles) from the centre of Ernesto.
Radar reports indicate that light to moderate showers have been affecting most of the island, especially eastern parishes, in squalls moving from east to west. With Ernesto about to start moving away from Jamaica, it is possible that the Tropical Storm Warning could be lifted later today.
All small craft operators, including fishers from the cays and banks, are reminded to remain in safe harbour until all warning messages have been discontinued and wind and sea conditions have returned to normal.
The Meteorological Service continues to monitor the progress of this system. The next Bulletin on Tropical Storm Ernesto will be issued at 8:00 p.m. today.
rar
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
508 AM AST MON AUG 6 2012
UPDATED TO ADD CLIMATE SECTION
.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH WED WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THU. ANOTHER TUTT WILL
ESTABLISH NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT. WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE
REMNANTS OF TS FLORENCE WILL PASS TO THE NE OF THE AREA THU.
&&
.DISCUSSION...OVERALL...THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS LOOK HOT WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL AS AREA BECOMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. EARLY NEXT WEEK...AREA THEN BECOMES UNDER STRONG UPPER
CONVERGENT FLOW/SUBSIDENT PATTERN BETWEEN RIDGE TO THE WEST AND
RETROGRADING TUTT FROM THE EAST. TUE NIGHT OFFERS THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THIS WAVE WILL ENCOUNTER STRONG SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH TUTT AND BEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF PR. IN
ADDITION...WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AT AN UNFAVORABLE TIME
OF DAY. WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW OF
FLORENCE WILL PASS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THU WITHOUT MUCH
FANFARE EITHER.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND
15 KNOTS. HAZY SKIES WILL PERSIST TODAY...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL
REMAIN P6SM.
&&
.MARINE...RATHER TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT FIVE
DAYS WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 3-5 FT.
&&
.CLIMATE...METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER 2012 DEFINED AS THE MONTHS OF JJA
AT THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE THIRD WARMEST
SUMMER ON RECORD TO DATE WITH AN AVERAGE TEMP OF 84.6F. THE
WARMEST SUMMER ON RECORD WAS IN 1980 WHEN THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
WAS 85.1F.
AT CHRISTIANSTED ST. CROIX...SUMMER 2012 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE
THIRD DRIEST SUMMER ON RECORD TO DATE WITH ONLY 1.35 INCHES OF
RAIN MEASURED SO FAR. THE DRIEST SUMMER ON RECORD WAS IN 1985 WHEN
ONLY 3.65 INCHES OF RAIN WERE MEASURED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 81 89 81 / 0 0 20 70
STT 88 81 88 81 / 0 20 20 70
CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
THIS MORNING AS IT TRACKS WEST. ERNESTO REMAINS MOVING ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS
THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS. WHILE RECENT CONVECTION PERSISTS NEAR
THE CENTER OF ERNESTO...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER ACROSS
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF JAMAICA AND
CUBA FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 76W-86W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS TRAIL TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
CUBA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND HISPANIOLA WITH THE CONTINUED
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY OVER JAMAICA...
CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...DRY AIR ALOFT IS
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER BY MIDDAY MONDAY...THE APPROACH OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 58W WILL BEGIN TO PROVIDE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND EXTREME SE CARIBBEAN.
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 12:00 PM on Monday, August 6, 2012
A westward moving tropical wave will spread some moisture across the area during the next 24 hours. This is expected to result in an increase in cloudiness, some showers and possible isolated thunderstorms across the region. However, most of the significant shower activity is expected across the southern section of the island chain.
Sea conditions are expected to be moderate with swells peaking near 7.0 feet during the next 72 hours. Small craft operators and sea bathers should continue to exercise caution.
Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Florence located in the Central Atlantic. This system poses NO threat to Dominica at this time.
GENERAL WEATHER FORECAST
Date:
MONDAY 6TH AUGUST 2012
Time:
6:00 AM
General Situation:
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO HEADING INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA AND GENERALLY TOWARDS NORTHERN BELIZE...
24hr Forecast:
CLOUDY AT TIMES WITH A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS OF THE COUNTRY.
Winds:
NORTH - NORTHEAST 5-15 KNOTS.
Sea State:
CHOPPY.
Outlook:
TUES. AND TUES. NIGHT IS FOR CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND SOME OUTBREAKS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST AREAS, ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN AREAS OF THE COUNTRY.
NEWS RELEASE
Monday, August 06, 2012 – 5:00 a.m.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED RAINFALL DECREASING OVER JAMAICA
The Meteorological Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Jamaica as Tropical Storm Ernesto continues to move away from the island.
At 4:00 a.m. the centre of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near Latitude 15.1 degrees North, Longitude 80.5 degrees West. This is about 400 kilometres (250 miles) southwest of Negril Point, Jamaica or 290 kilometres (180 miles) east of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua/Honduras border.
Ernesto is moving towards the west near 19 km/h (12 mph) and a turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 km/h (50 mph), with higher gusts, and some strengthening is forecast during the next 36-48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 km (125 miles) from the centre of Ernesto.
Satellite imagery and radar reports indicate that the heavy rainfall and thunderstorms associated with Tropical Storm Ernesto have been steadily decreasing over Jamaica, with mostly light showers now being observed over sections of southern and northwestern parishes. Weather conditions are, therefore, expected to return to near-normal after midday.
Small craft operators should, however, continue to exercise caution until wind and sea conditions have returned to safe levels.
This is the final Bulletin on Tropical Storm Ernesto that will be issued by the Meteorological Service. Further updates on this system and current weather conditions will be included in regular forecasts and News Releases.
vtj
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
327 AM AST TUE AUG 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 22N 70W WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRESS
TONIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
THU AND HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TUTT EXPECTED TO
ESTABLISH AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS AND 00Z RAOB ANALYSIS INDICATE
AN INVERTED MID LEVEL TROF AXIS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS PR. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS WWD THROUGH THE DAY WITH MID LEVEL
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN AHEAD OF TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE LATTER SHOWS UP QUITE
NICELY ON THE 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY AS HAVING AN INVERTED-V SHAPE.
THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE WATERS AND ERN PR.
WAVE WILL BE ENCOUNTERING STRONG SHEAR ON EAST SIDE OF TUTT LOW
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AND BEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH
OVER WATER. MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER WATER
WHICH MAY REQUIRE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS. MOISTURE EXITS THE AREA
QUICKLY WED MORNING WITH MID LEVEL DRYING WORKING INTO THE AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT AFTERNOON CONVECTION
FROM DEVELOPING.
REMNANTS OF TS FLORENCE WILL PASS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THU AND
WILL BE OF LITTLE SIGNIFICANCE OTHER THAN LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING
TO THE SOUTHEAST RESULTING IN VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
VERY STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRI FOLLOWED BY A STRENGTHENING UPPER CONVERGENT
FLOW/SUBSIDENT PATTERN BETWEEN RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TUTT TO THE
EAST WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH AT LEAST SUN AND POSSIBLY INTO TUE
DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE TUTT. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
VERY SPOTTY AND SHALLOW.
CURRENT INVEST 92L IN THE ERN ATLC DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE MUCH ROOM
FOR SURVIVAL AS MOST OF THE GFES MEMBERS SHOW THIS FEATURE
DISSIPATING AROUND 24 HRS.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES...
WITH PASSING SHOWERS IN AND AROUND TJSJ...TIST...AND TISX THROUGH ABOUT
07/15Z. AFT 07/18Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
TJMZ AND TJBQ IN SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FT NEXT FIVE DAYS AND WINDS AROUND 15
KT. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CARIB COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT AND BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH MAY
REQUIRE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 80 88 80 / 20 70 70 30
STT 90 79 90 79 / 20 70 70 20
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT ERNESTO HAS BECOME A HURRICANE...
2:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 7
Location: 18.5°N 85.5°W
Moving: WNW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 983 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 12:00 PM on Tuesday, August 7, 2012
A westward moving tropical wave will continue to spread some moisture across the area during the next 24 hours. This is expected to result in an increase in cloudiness, some showers and possible isolated thunderstorms across the region. Persons in areas prone to flooding, landslides and falling rocks are advised to exercise caution.
Sea conditions are expected to be moderate with swells peaking near 7.0 feet during the next 48 hours. Small craft operators and sea bathers should continue to exercise caution.
An area of low pressure ahead of a tropical wave is located in the Central Atlantic Ocean. These systems are moving westward near 24 km/h.
Date: TUESDAY 7TH AUGUST 2012
Time: 12:00pM
General Situation:
HURRICANE WARNING FOR ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE AS TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO HEADS WEST NORTHWEST.
24hr Forecast:
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES; NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND COASTAL PARTS OF THE COUNTRY.
Winds:
NORTH - NORTHWEST 15-25 KNOTS INCREASING TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE STRENGTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND DURING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
Sea State:
ROUGH; *SMALL CRAFT SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOUR.*
Outlook:
BETWEEN WED. AFTERNOON TO THURS. MIDDAY:OVERCAST SKIES WITH DIMINISHING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS, A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
619 AM AST WED AUG 8 2012
.UPDATE...FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FCST WERE UPDATED TO INCREASE
SKY CVR AND TO LOWER POPS OVER LAND AREAS AS PRECIP ON THE NORTH
COAST HAS EXITED THE AREA EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED.
HIGH DENSE OVC LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA LIMITING HEATING. LATEST 06Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST VERY LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION IN THE WAKE OF TROPICAL WAVE WITH MID LEVEL
DRY INTRUSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM AST WED AUG 8 2012/
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
RETROGRESS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE EAST. AT LOW LEVELS...
TROPICAL WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO INTERACT WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WELL AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
AN IMPROVEMENT IN WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO MID LEVEL DRYING AND STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION.
HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
REMNANTS OF TS FLORENCE ARE EXPECTED TO PASS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PASSING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST. EAST
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING WARM TO HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ALSO
EXPECTED BOTH DAYS DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL ARRIVE DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN AND MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ESTABLISH AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...A TSRA POSSIBLE AT JBQ AND JMZ THIS AFTERNOON BUT PROB
TOO LOW TO HAVE ANYTHING MORE THAN VCTS. A BIT MORE ACTIVE THU AND
FRI WITH SCT-NMRS TSRA NW PR. THINGS LOOK PRETTY QUIET SAT AND SUN.
&&
.MARINE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS OF UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...SUMMER 2012(JJA) AT THE SAN JUAN AREA CURRENTLY RANKS
AS THE THIRD WARMEST SUMMER ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
OF 84.6F. THE WARMEST SUMMER ON RECORD WAS IN 1980 WITH AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE OF 85.1F. AT CYRIL E. KING AIRPORT...SUMMER 2012
CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE TENTH WARMEST SUMMER ON RECORD WITH AN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 83.8F. THE WARMEST SUMMER ON RECORD WAS IN
1979 AND 1994 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 86.6F. IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION...SUMMER 2012 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE THIRD DRIEST
SUMMER ON RECORD AT CHRISTIANSTED AIRPORT WITH ONLY 2.40 INCHES
MEASURED. THE DRIEST SUMMER ON RECORD WAS IN 1985 WITH ONLY 3.64
INCHES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 89 80 / 10 30 30 20
STT 89 79 89 79 / 10 20 20 20
ERNESTO HEADED FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA...
CARIBBEAN SEA...
ERNESTO MADE LANDFALL OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD. WHILE THE CORE CONVECTION OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN
86W-91W...OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA PACIFIC COAST W OF 82W AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...EL
SALVADOR...BELIZE...AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WITH THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A PORTION OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
OUTFLOW FROM ERNESTO TRAILS TO THE EAST IN A TRAJECTORY ALONG
20N83W TO 16N74W TO 20N69W AND INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N70W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
JAMAICA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 14N BETWEEN 70W-82W.
FARTHER EAST...A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W AND CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS BETWEEN 62W-71W.
THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY ENHANCED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 12:00 PM on Wednesday, August 8, 2012
Lingering moisture from the passage of a westward moving tropical wave will continue to maintain some unstable conditions across the area during today. An increase in cloudiness and some scattered showers will be evident by late afternoon into tonight as an area of low pressure located in the Atlantic approaches the Leeward Islands. This will be followed by a gradual drying out of the atmosphere with a reduction in shower activity by tomorrow.
Sea conditions are expected to be slight to moderate with swells peaking near 5.0 feet during the next 48 hours. A significant increase in swells is expected by the weekend.
A tropical wave located in the Central Atlantic Ocean is moving westward near 24 km/h. This system is expected to approach the Lesser Antilles by the weekend.
Date: WEDNESDAY 8TH AUGUST 2012
Time: 12:10PM
General Situation:
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WEAKENING OVER SW YUCATAN... TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF BELIZE...
24hr Forecast:
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN DISTRICTS AND COASTAL AREAS. CLOUDY AT TIMES TOMORROW MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH, DECREASING.
Winds:
SOUTH - SOUTHEAST 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE NORTH AND NEAR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
Sea State:
ROUGH **SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD REMAIN IN SAFE HARBOUR**
Outlook:
(THU AFTNN - MDDAY FRI) MAINLY FAIR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ISOLATED AND MOSTLY IN THE SOUTH.
Night Discussion
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW COVERS MUCH OF THE BASIN CENTERED N OF JAMAICA
NEAR 19N77W. DRY AIR ALOFT IS WRAPPING AROUND THE NW SIDE OF THE
LOW...WHILE MOISTURE FROM ERNESTO IS BEGIN DRAWN AROUND THE
SOUTHERN PORTION AND INTO THE DIFFLUENT E SIDE OF THE LOW. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALSO ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA TO N OF COLOMBIA. THE COMBINATION OF THE WAVE AND THE
UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND
EASTERN CUBA. HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING...AND MUDSLIDES ARE
POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED LARGE AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN INCLUDING COSTA RICA AND PANAMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE E
PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH BOTH COUNTRIES TO
NORTHERN COLOMBIA. EXPECT MOIST CONDITIONS TO REMAIN OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
AS THE WAVE CONTINUES WESTWARD.
Source: National Hurricane Center
Afternoon Discussion
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS INLAND IN THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC. THE 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING
AT 09/1200 UTC FOR TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS WAS 2.59 INCHES.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT
RUNS FROM 14N84W IN NORTHERN NICARAGUA TO 16N86W IN NORTHERN
COASTAL HONDURAS...TO 20N89W IN THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO. PLEASE REFERENCE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO.
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N79W
BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
28N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 250 NM TO THE EAST OF THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W...TO THE
19N79W CYCLONIC CENTER...TO 11N76W OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/78W FROM 22N TO 12N.
THE WAVE STARTS OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTAL SIDE OF CUBA...
IT CROSSES JAMAICA...TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM
11N TO 12N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT COVERS THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM COLOMBIA AND PANAMA NORTHWARD...CROSSING CUBA
AND HISPANIOLA AND REACHING THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N/25N BETWEEN 72W
AND 77W...POSSIBLY IS MORE RELATED TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW THAN TO JUST THE WAVE BY ITSELF. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST
OFF THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN ELSEWHERE FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN 67W AND
69W...AND BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN
75W AND 77W.
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COLOMBIA NEAR 9N73W...TO 9N80W
IN PANAMA...TO 11N86W JUST OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF COSTA
RICA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH
OF 11N BETWEEN 75W IN COLOMBIA AND 84W IN NICARAGUA AND COSTA
RICA.
Source: National Hurricane Center
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
5:00 PM AST Thu Aug 9
Location: 13.7°N 43.8°W
Moving: W at 20 mph
Min pressure: 1010 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 6:00 PM on Thursday, August 9, 2012
Patches of low level clouds generated by a weak trough just east of the island chain is expected to result in an increase in cloudiness with a few passing showers from time to time during tonight into tomorrow. This will be followed by a gradual drying out of the atmosphere with a reduction in shower activity as the day progresses.
Sea conditions are expected to be moderate with swells peaking near 7.0 feet during the next 24 hours. A significant increase in swells is expected by the weekend.
The low pressure area located in the Central Tropical Atlantic is now Tropical Depression Seven.
At 5 pm...The center of Tropical Depression Seven was located near latitude 13.7 north...longitude 43.8 west or about 1155 miles or 1860 km east of the Windward Islands. The depression is moving toward the west near 20 mph or 32 km/h. This general motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph or 55 km/h with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and the depression could become a tropical storm on Friday.
Interests in Dominica and the rest of the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system as it is expected to approach the Lesser Antilles by Saturday into Sunday.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
447 AM AST FRI AUG 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TUTT LOW WEST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT WEST...WELL AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. A SECOND
TUTT LOW NORTHEAST OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSE OR
OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AT 5 AM AST...
TROPICAL DEPRESION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 47.2 WEST OR ABOUT 930 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WEATHER RADAR DETECTED A LINE OF SHOWERS...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE...JUST
EAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING...BUT
NO PCPN WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS. SATELLITE IMAGES THIS
MORNING DEPICTED A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM FLORENCE. THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN OVERALL
DRIER...STABLE AND HAZY AIR MASS WITH LIMITED CONVECTION...SHOULD
ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. IN FACT...PWAT VALUES WILL CONTINUE BELOW
1.50 INCHES UNTIL SUNDAY. THE TUTT LOW OVER CUBA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE FURTHER WEST AS RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. A
SECOND TUTT LOW...WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO SINK
SOUTHWARD APPROACHING TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
THE LOCAL WEATHER FOR LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WILL BE DICTATED
BY THE TRACK OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE
THAT IT WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT THIS COULD
CHANGE. THE LOCAL ISLANDS MAY STILL RECEIVE ACTIVE WEATHER FROM
IT...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...INCREASING WINDS AND AT
LEAST LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SEAS. ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 10/18Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL FORM ONCE AGAIN IN AND AROUND
TJBQ AND TJMZ THIS AFTERNOON. TJSJ 10/00Z SOUNDING SHOWED SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT AROUND 10 KTS BLW 20 KFT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 80 90 80 / 20 10 10 20
STT 90 81 90 81 / 10 10 10 20
Thanks Much...good afternoon everyone!
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N81W
AND INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 75W-85W. FARTHER EAST...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES MOST DRY AIR IS FOUND E OF 70W ALOFT AND THIS
ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HOWEVER ARE
NOTED OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N E OF 68W...INCLUDING PUERTO
RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS.
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE BAHAMAS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FRIDAY 10TH AUGUST 2012.
GENERAL SITUATION: DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SOUTH OF CUBA ALONG WITH A TROPICAL WAVE JUST WEST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL TRIGGER SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
WEATHER: PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.
FOR THE BOATERS: SMALL CRAFT SHOULD BE ALERT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS IN OR NEAR HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS: SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER OPEN WATERS.
SEAS RUNNING: 2 TO 4 FEET OVER THE OCEAN.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURE: 91F 33C OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE: 79F 26C
SUNRISE: 6:42AM SUNSET: 6:48PM
MOONRISE: 2:18PM MOONSET: 1:19AM SAT.
LOW TIDE: 8:28AM HIGH TIDE: 2:59PM LOW TIDE: 9:25PM
EXTENDED FORECAST: LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND REDUCE RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY:
WEATHER: VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...PARTLY SUNNY AND HOT IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS.
WINDS: SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS IN THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND EASTERLY AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS.
SEAS RUNNING: 3 FEET ORLESS IN THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND 4 TO 7 FEET IN THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS.
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY:
WEATHER: PARTLY SUNNY WITH FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
WIND: SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE CENTRAL AND OSUTHEAST BAHAMAS.
SEAS: 3 FEET OR LESS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND 4 TO 7 FEET IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK: A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND AFRICA HAS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE END.
I.V.M.
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 12:00 PM on Friday, August 10, 2012
A ridge of high pressure is temporarily becoming the dominant feature across the area. However, patches of low level clouds moving westward could result in an increase in cloudiness with a few passing showers mainly during the cooler late night to early morning period.
Sea conditions are expected to be moderate with swells peaking near 7.0 feet during the next 24 hours. However, a significant increase in swells is expected beginning by early tomorrow with swells peaking near 10 feet by Sunday.
At 11 am...The center of Tropical Depression Seven was located near latitude 13.7 north...longitude 49.5 west or about 775 miles or 1245 km east of the Windward Islands. The depression is moving toward the west near 23 mph or 37 km/h and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph or 55 km/h with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. The depression could become a tropical storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles and tropical storm watches could be issued.
Interests in Dominica and the rest of the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system as it is expected to approach the Lesser Antilles by late Saturday into Sunday.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
419 PM AST FRI AUG 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...TUTT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RE-ESTABLISH TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AND THEN SHIFT WEST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SEVEN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...REMAINING MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AN OVERALL DRIER...MORE STABLE AND HAZY AIR MASS
WITH SAHARAN DUST AND LIMITED CONVECTION...WILL ENCOMPASS THE
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THEREAFTER...THE LOCAL WEATHER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WILL BE DICTATED BY TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN AND ITS
FURTHER STRENGTHENING (IF ANY) AND TRACK. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WE MAY STILL
RECEIVE SOME ACTIVE WEATHER FROM IT...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AND AT LEAST
LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SEAS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO BE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO UNTIL 10/23Z. IN ADDITION...
INCREASING SAHARAN DUST WILL RESULT IN HAZY SKIES BUT MOST
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN P6SM.
&&
.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
THEREAFTER...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN PASSING WELL SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...AND SEAS SHOULD BECOME HAZARDOUS BY LATER SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 80 89 / 10 10 20 20
STT 81 90 81 90 / 10 10 20 20
8:00 PM AST Fri Aug 10
Location: 13.8°N 52.8°W
Moving: W at 24 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
519 AM AST SAT AUG 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TUTT LOW...NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...IS
EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION TODAY AND
SUNDAY AND THEN WEST NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH MONDAY. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SEVEN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS WITH NO PRECIPITATION
OVER LAND AREAS SO FAR THIS MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES THIS
MORNING DEPICTED A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WELL NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN AN OVERALL
DRIER...STABLE AND HAZY AIR MASS WITH LIMITED CONVECTION ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. TJSJ 11/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A CAP AT
6300 FEET WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. THIS DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. IN FACT...PWAT
VALUES WILL CONTINUE BELOW 1.50 TODAY...INCREASING SLIGHTLY TONIGHT
AND FURTHER MORE ON SUNDAY. THE TUTT LOW NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY
AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE LIMITED INFLUENCES
OVER THE LOCAL WEATHER DUE TO THE CAP OVER THE REGION.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY WESTWARD AROUND
24 MPH OR SO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE PASSING WELL SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THIS MOMENT...THE ONLY
IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HAZARDOUS SEAS AND SOME
SQUALLY WEATHER MAINLY ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLD-SCT LOW LEVEL CLDS WITH FEW QUICK PASSING
LIGHT SHRA MAY AFFECT FA BTW ERN PR AND THE NRN LEEWARDS THROUGH
FCST PRD. ALSO...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP VCNTY TJMZ BTW 11/18Z
AND 11/22Z. RECENT TJSJ 11/00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING AS WELL AS LATEST
WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILE SUGGESTS EAST WNDS AT 10-25 KTS BLO 20K FT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 80 89 79 / 10 20 40 50
STT 90 81 90 79 / 10 20 40 50
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N86W IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-23N BETWEEN 80W-85W.
SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN
76W-83W ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER DUE TO DRY AIR
ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TO
VENEZUELA. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH IS HELPING ENHANCE
CONVECTION TO THE E NEAR THE REMNANTS OF T.D. SEVEN. SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO HIT THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR MORE DETAILS. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20
KT IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
EXPECT MOIST CONDITIONS TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...AND INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS THE
TROPICAL WAVE OF WHAT WAS T.D. SEVEN MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE
BASIN.
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 12:00 PM on Saturday, August 11, 2012
..Tropical Depression 7 degenerates into a tropical wave...squally weather still likely across portions of the Lesser Antilles later today and tonight...
All tropical storm watches have been discontinued in the Lesser Antilles.
Reconnaissance data indicate that tropical depression seven has degenerated into a tropical wave. At 11 am....the remnants of Tropical Depression seven were located near latitude 13.3 north...longitude 58.9 west or about 200 miles southeast of Dominica. The tropical wave is forecast to move westward across the Lesser Antilles and the Caribbean sea over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph or 55 km/h with higher gusts mainly in squalls.
Interests in the Windward Islands should still monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds up to tropical storm force are still possible in squalls across the Windward Islands later today and tonight. Total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 3 inches are expected across portions of the Lesser Antilles today and tonight.
An increase in swells is also expected with swells peaking to 12 feet by Sunday.
Residents in areas prone to flooding, landslides and falling rocks should exercise caution.
ISSUED AT: 03:09PM
Date:Saturday 11th of August 2012
Meteorologist: Bagwandeen Ramdatt
FOR THE PERIOD LATE AFTERNOON,EVENING AND TONIGHT:
TRINIDAD & TOBAGO
Periods of light rain or showers.
WINDWARD & SOUTHERN LEEWARDS: Light to moderate
showers or thundershowers.
NORTHERN LEEWARDS: Mostly sunny afternoon, clear
night.
SEAS: Normal
WAVES: 2.0m IN OPEN WATERS
Less than 1.0m IN SHLTD AREAS
Temperature Units:Celsius
TODAY'S MAX TEMP.
Piarco: 27 Crown Point: 28
Tides ISSUED AT: 05:09PM
Date:Friday 10th of August 2012
Port of Spain HIGH 11:40am 11:08pm LOW 5:06am 4:31pm
Scarborough HIGH 12:08pm 11:20pm LOW 5:50am 4:25pm
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 AM AST SUN AUG 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS...TUTT AND ASSOCIATED LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT WESTWARD...BECOMING LOCATED JUST WEST
TO NORTHWEST OF THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...NOW AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE...CONTINUED
TO CROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING.
IT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND AFFECT THE LOCAL
REGION BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
CONTINUED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS AND WAS RAPIDLY
APPROACHING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER
RADAR SHOWED SMALL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE ISLAND OF SAINT CROIX AND CONTINUING WESTWARDS TOWARDS
EASTERN PUERTO RICO. THE BLENDED TOTAL PRECIP WATER ANALYSIS ALSO
SHOWED RISING PWAT VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. LATEST
GFS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST THAT DEEP MOISTURE WILL
QUICKLY SURGE AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
THIS MORNING THEN EVENTUALLY ACROSS PUERTO RICO LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD STILL APPEARS IN THE
EVENING HOURS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
WILL BE LIFTED UP ACROSS THE REGION TRAILING THE WAVE. THIS WILL
THEREFORE INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SQUALLY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO AND THE ISLAND OF SAINT CROIX.
&&
.AVIATION...THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...FORMERLY
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...WILL MOVE THROUGH TKPK AND TNCM BY
AROUND 12/12Z...PRODUCING PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS IN
+SHRA AND TSRA. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH TIST AND TISX BY
12/15...SPREADING SHRA ACROSS THE USVI FROM 12/15Z-22Z. BANDS OF
RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AFTER 12/18Z...SPREADING
WEST NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE ISLAND DURING THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HENCE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THRU 12/14Z ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THRU 12/17Z ACROSS
PUERTO RICO. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AFTER 12/18Z WITH SHRA AND TSRA WITH INCREASING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.
ENE LLVL WINDS WILL INCR THRU 12/18Z BECOMING 15 TO 25 KT WITH SFC
GUST UP TO 32 KT PSBL...WINDS 5-10K FT 25 TO 40 KT SHIFTING TO ESE
WITH WAVE PSG.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 78 87 79 / 50 50 40 40
STT 88 79 89 79 / 60 60 30 30
National Hurricane Center Morning Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN W OF 73W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 82W TO INLAND OVER CUBA/YUCATAN AND
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO 22N. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W ALONG 11N80W CROSSING
NICARAGUA NEAR 11N84W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE
FROM 9N77W OVER NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE E
CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON
AND INTO THE W CARIBBEAN TUE BEFORE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA WED.
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 12:00 PM on Sunday, August 12, 2012
A tropical wave, the remnants of tropical depression seven is currently located just to the west of Windward Islands and is moving westward away from the area at about 20 mph. Increased cloudiness, periods of light rain and gusty winds are expected to continue across portions of the Lesser Antilles during today. Environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for regeneration and this system has a low chance of becoming a tropical depression again during the next 48 hours.
An increase in swells is expected to be maintained during the next 12 hours with swells now peaking near 8 feet. Small craft operators and sea bathers are advised to exercise caution.
Residents in areas prone to landslides and falling rocks should continue to exercise caution.
Weather Forecast for Bonaire and Curaçao valid until Monday midday 12:00 l.t., August 13, 2012.
Issued: Sunday August 12, 2012. 11:00 l.t. (15:00 UTC).
Weather:
Today: Partly to mostly cloudy with locally a few showers and a risk of thunder through the early afternoon. Dry weather will prevail during the late afternoon and evening.
Tonight through Monday morning: Variably cloudy and becoming breezy. A couple of early morning showers, with locally some thunder, are still possible.
Forecast high: 31°C and forecast low: 25°C.
Sunrise: 06:24 and sunset at 18:57.
Winds: Northeast to east and light to moderate; force 2 to 4 (7 to 30 km/hr, 4 to 16 knots). Mainly in showers, occasionally fresh in gusts; force 5 (31 to 39 km/hr, 17 to 21 knots). Winds will become east to southeast late tonight or early tomorrow and increase to moderate to fresh, with occasionally a few gust to strong; force 6 (40 to 50 km/hr, 22 to 27 knots).
Synopsis: A tropical wave continues to make progress toward the west over the Eastern Caribbean Sea through today and Monday. Although most of the associated cloudiness and shower activity will stay north of our region, a temporary increase in cloudiness will occur with locally the development of a few showers over Bonaire and Curaçao as well. Some thunder is possible at times. Winds will be light and possibly variable at times today. As this disturbance exits the local area later tonight or early tomorrow, winds will increase again to fresh or strong.
Sea conditions: Tranquil to moderate with wave heights between 0.5 and 1.5 meters. On Monday, seas will become fairly rough, with wave heights up to 2.5 meters.
Significant tropical systems: None.
Special features: None.
Outlook until Tuesday morning: Partly cloudy with less chance for showers and a somewhat subsided winds and seas.
Forecaster: Capello.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
508 AM AST MON AUG 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WITH ASSOCIATED TUTT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THEN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE TUTT WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT WESTWARD WHILE FILLING...AND BECOMING SITUATED
JUST WEST TO NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. AN ACTIVE TROPICAL
WAVE NOW SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LOCAL REGION...WHILE A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
SHOWED SMALL AREAS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS AND
TRAILING THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE PROXIMITY OF THE TUTT AND AREA OF
LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE CREATED BY THE DEPARTING TROPICAL WAVE
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG WITH DECENT AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE...WAS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO FUEL STRONG
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. PRESENTLY MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY REMAINED OFFSHORE BUT CONTINUED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS AND MOVE WESTWARD.
DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS EXPECTED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO TRAIL THE TROPICAL WAVE AND AFFECT
PARTS OF THE LOCAL WATERS AND SOME OF THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS PARTS CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND
SOME OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. BY LATE AFTERNOON EXPECT THE ACTIVITY
TO SHIFT MORE TO PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO AS A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN FROM
THE EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO LESSER SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. BY TUESDAY AND THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY EXPECTED MOSTLY FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS
WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY AND LOCAL TERRAIN INDUCED CONVECTION IN
ISOLATED SPOTS MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. NO MAJOR WEATHER FEATURE IS FORECAST TO DIRECTLY
AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...GENERALLY EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR OR LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT TJPS THIS MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AT TJMZ AFTER 13/17Z AND AT TJBQ AFTER 13/18Z RESULTING IN REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND LOCAL SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO
NEAR 30 KNOTS. LLVL WINDS ARE ESE 15 TO 30 KNOTS AND WILL SHIFT TO E
10 TO 25 KNOTS AFT 13/12Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 90 79 / 30 40 40 20
STT 88 78 90 79 / 30 30 30 30
National Hurricane Center Morning Discussion
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N69W 17N70W 14N71W...TO NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA NEAR 10N71W. THIS WAVE REPRESENTS THE REMNANTS OF
T.D. SEVEN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM
14N TO 16.5N BETWEEN 71W AND 75W. THE COMPARATIVELY BIGGER
AREA OF LAKE MARACAIBO CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED
AND DISSIPATED. THAT AREA HAS BEEN REPLACED BY SMALLER
AREAS/CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF LAKE MARACAIBO TOWARD THE COAST AND EVEN
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST
OF 75W.
AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...ALONG 20N79W 9N80W AT THE COAST OF
PANAMA.
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH LAKE MARACAIBO IN EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...TO COLOMBIA NEAR 9N73W...TO 8N78W
IN PANAMA...BEYOND 10N85W IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA AND
CARIBBEAN SEA JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GULF OF URABA FROM
7N TO 10N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W...FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 77W
AND 80W ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN...AND FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 84W AND 85W ALONG THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 12:00 PM on Monday, August 13, 2012
A ridge of high has established itself across the island chain favouring mostly fair conditions during the next 48 hours. However, low level clouds moving with the trade wind flow could result in some passing showers mainly during the cooler late night to early morning period.
Sea conditions are expected to be moderate during the next 48 hours. A reduction in swells to 5.0 feet is anticipated by mid-week. Small craft operators and sea bathers should continue to exercise caution.
Two tropical waves located in the Atlantic Ocean are moving westward near 28 km/h.
August 12, 2012 at 4:00 a.m.
LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… A High Pressure Ridge across the northern Caribbean , including Jamaica.
Comment… The High Pressure Ridge should lift north of the Caribbean as a Tropical Wave moves across Jamaica late Monday into early Tuesday.
24-HOUR FORECAST
Tonight … Mainly fair.
Tomorrow…Mainly sunny morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over southern and eastern parishes late in the afternoon.
Minimum temperatures expected tonight for:
Kingston... 26 degrees Celsius
Montego Bay 25... degrees Celsius
3-DAY FORECAST (after tomorrow)
Tue…Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms over most parishes.
Wed… Am. Showers northern parishes. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms over western parishes.
Thur… Mainly sunny except for isolated afternoon thunderstorms over western parishes.
Regionally… A Tropical Wave is generating cloudy conditions over portions of the eastern Caribbean.
ram
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
350 AM AST TUE AUG 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK TUTT AXIS HAS NOW SHIFTED WEST TO NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WITH WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN IS HELPING TO CREATE FAIRLY
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT. IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...WILL HELP
MAINTAIN A MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SHALLOW
PATCHES OF TRADE WIND MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS QUICKLY
MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WATERS AND BRUSHING PARTS OF THE
ISLANDS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS...FEW TO ISOLATED
TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND
BRUSH MAINLY SOME OF THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED AS A SLOT OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. BY MID MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON..LOCAL TERRAIN AND AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL COMBINE WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO INDUCE SOME
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MEANWHILE THE REMAINDER OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD EXPERIENCE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES WITH
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IF ANY.
ON WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE/LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND BRING A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE REGION. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT BETTER CHANCE FOR EARLY MORNING AND DIURNAL CONVECTION
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS STILL NOT ANTICIPATED. ON FRIDAY...
ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING A WEAK EASTERLY PERTURBATION
ALONG AND AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION AND BRING INCREASED CLOUDINESS ONCE AGAIN WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING TIME OF
MAX HEATING ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
EXPECT A GRADUAL DRYING TREND WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF MODERATE TO
HIGH CONCENTRATION OF SAHARAN DUST AND A DRYER AIR MASS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AND DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...LIMITED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED TS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO AFFECTING TJBQ AND TJMZ WITH MOUNTAINS
OBSCURATIONS AND PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 14/17Z. E-ESE LOW
LEVEL WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 88 79 / 10 20 30 10
STT 89 79 89 79 / 20 50 50 20
National Hurricane Center Morning Discussion
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W TO THE SOUTH OF
22N. THIS WAVE REPRESENTS THE REMNANTS OF T.D. SEVEN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 15N TO 18N
BETWEEN 79W AND 80W AND FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND
84W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 19N TO 21N
BETWEEN 80W AND 83W. SOME OF THE STRONG PRECIPITATION ALREADY IS
REACHING NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS.
AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...ALONG 18N81W 15N81W 10N83W NEAR THE
PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER.
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 75W AND 84W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM 5N
TO 10N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 75W IN COASTAL
COLOMBIA AND SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 12:00 PM on Tuesday, August 14, 2012
Weak unstable conditions associated with a trough system is expected to produce cloudiness and scattered showers across the region during the next 24 hours. However, most of the significant shower activity is expected across the Leeward Islands.
Sea conditions are expected to be moderate during the next 24 hours with swells peaking near 5.0 feet. A further improvement in swells is expected by tomorrow.
Two tropical waves located in the Atlantic Ocean are moving westward near 28 km/h.
General Conditions:
Partly cloudy skies with a 20% chance of showers. Winds will be east 10 to 15 knots. Seas will be moderate with wave heights of 3 to 5 feet.
Cloudy skies with a 40% chance of showers and thunder.
Winds over open sea:
Winds will be east to southeast 10 to 15 knots.
Sea State:
Seas will be moderate with wave heights of 3 to 5 feet.
Temperature:
High: 87°F | 31°C
Low: 78°F | 26°C
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
534 AM AST WED AUG 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE PASSING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE USVI AND ACROSS THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE DAY AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
KEEP WINDS FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST THEN BECOMING MORE EASTERLY ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. AN INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE VALUES INCREASING TO ALMOST 2 INCHES
ACCORDING TO THE GFS MODEL. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS OF
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE.
PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK...ONCE AGAIN COMBINING WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL
HEATING TO DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THIS
WEEKEND...GFS MODEL INDICATES A DECREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE
COMING IN FROM THE EAST...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING
TO ABOUT 1.3 INCHES.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT
LEAST 15/12Z. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLDS MAINLY BTW 020-070 KFT WITH
ACCOMPANYING PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED EN ROUTE BTW ERN PR AND NRN
LEEWARDS...AS WELL AS VCTY TNCM...TKPK..TIST...TISX..AND TJSJ.
EARLIER TJSJ 15/00Z SOUNDING AS WELL AS LATEST VAD WIND PROFILE
SUGGESTS MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS BLO 12K FT AT 10 TO 20 KTS FROM
SFC-25K FT. NO OTHER SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS IS FCST AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 5 FEET OR LESS.
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF PUERTO RICO TO THE WEST MAY AFFECT THE
NEARSHORE WATERS TO THE WEST OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE MONA PASSAGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 79 88 79 / 30 10 20 20
STT 90 80 90 80 / 40 20 30 30
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM
12N-19N BETWEEN 78W-86W. AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...HEAVY SHOWERS AND FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE W ATLC. A SECOND TROPICAL
WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...BUT IT IS VERY WEAK DUE TO
LOSING MOST ITS ENERGY TO THE SURFACE TROUGH/LOW IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC. IT IS ONLY PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT IS PRESENT ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EXPECT BOTH WAVES TO CONTINUE
WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 12:00 PM on Wednesday, August 15, 2012
Weak unstable conditions affecting the area will continue to produce periods of cloudiness, scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms during the next 24 hours.
Light wind speeds across the area will result in slight to moderate sea conditions during the next 24 to 36 hours with swells peaking near 5.0 feet.
Two tropical waves located in the Central and Eastern Atlantic Ocean are moving westward near 28 km/h.
Date:
WEDNESDAY 15TH AUGUST 2012
Time:
12:00PM
General Situation:
MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS FOLLOW IN WAKE OF
TROPICAL WAVE...
24hr Forecast:
CLOUDY SPELLS WITH A FEW OUTBREAKS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST AREAS OF THE COUNTRY.
Winds:
EAST -SOUTHEAST 10-20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
Sea State:
MODERATE...BECOMING ROUGH AT TIMES.
*SMALL CRAFT CAUTION IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS*
Outlook:
BETWEEN THURS. AFTERNOON AND FRI. MIDDAY. CLOUDY SPELLS WITH A FEW OUTBREAKS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
542 AM AST THU AUG 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BRINGING EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST
WINDS TODAY...THEN SHIFTING TO A MORE EAST NORTHEAST DIRECTION ON
FRIDAY. INVERTED TUTT AND ITS REFLECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...INVERTED TUTT AND ITS REFLECTION WILL COMBINE TODAY
WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND THE LOCAL EFFECTS TO CAUSE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA UNTIL
EARLY SUNDAY. THEREFORE...AVAILABLE MOISTURE...IN COMBINATION WITH
THE LOCAL EFFECTS AND THE TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY CAUSE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AS WELL AS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST OF PUERTO RICO AT ANY GIVEN
MOMENT...BUT THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WESTERN PUERTO RICO.
STARTING ON SUNDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO GO
DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY...ALSO...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT
DECREASE IN K-INDEX FOR SUNDAY. THIS MEANS THAT FOR THE REST OF
THE WORKWEEK AND INTO SATURDAY...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THEN ON SUNDAY A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE
IN SHOWER ACTIVITY.
&&
.AVIATION...BANDS OF MOIST AND DRY AIR WILL PASS OVER THE AREA
BRINGING SHRA AND SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. AFT 16/16Z AREAS OF
SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP WITH MVFR LCLY IFR CONDS IN WRN PR AND TJMZ
WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS. IMPROVING CONDS EXPECTED AFT 16/21Z. LLVL
WINDS E TO SE 5 TO 15 KT UP THRU 30 KFT. WINDS 10 KT OR LESS 30-42
KFT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 89 79 / 50 20 30 40
STT 90 80 90 80 / 50 20 20 30
National Hurricane Center Afternoon Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TODAY EXCEPT FOR
SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 8N-15N
BETWEEN 80W-84W. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE NW
CORNER EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE AN INVERTED
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH A SHARP
AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 16N81W TO
12N76W. DRY AIR COVERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WHICH IS
CONTRIBUTING TO FAIR CONDITIONS. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT IS
PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
FLOW. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 12:00 PM on Thursday, August 16, 2012
Low level clouds moving with the trade wind flow could result in occasional cloudy skies and some brief showers over the island during the afternoon into the early part of tonight. Thereafter, a tropical wave approaching the region is expected to produce cloudiness, showers and possible isolated thunderstorms across the island chain by late tonight into early tomorrow.
Sea conditions are expected to be moderate for the next 48 hours with swells peaking near 7.0 feet.
Another tropical wave located in the Central Atlantic Ocean is moving westward near 28 km/h.
ISSUED AT: 10:11AM
Date:Thursday 16th of August 2012
Meteorologist: Bagwandeen Ramdatt
FOR THE PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:
TRINIDAD,TOBAGO AND THE REM.OF THE LESSER ANTILLES:
Light to moderate showers in varying localities
with improvement expected by evening. A
thundershower is likely over western Trinidad
towards late afternoon.
SEAS: Normal
WAVES: 1.0m to 1.5mIN OPEN WATERS
Less than 1.0m IN SHLTD AREAS
Temperature Units:Celsius
FORECAST MAX TEMP.
Piarco: 32 Crown Point: 31
Tides ISSUED AT: 05:34PM
Date:Wednesday 15th of August 2012
Port of Spain HIGH 2:46am 3:48pm LOW 9:25am 9:20pm
Scarborough HIGH 2:18am 3:03pm LOW 9:01am 10:38pm
National Hurricane Center Morning Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 27N64W ATLANTIC OCEAN
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 22N66W AND 19N69W...AND THEN
TOWARD JAMAICA. THE EARLIER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS
BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA...AND IN THE MONA PASSAGE...HAS
WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 18N80W 13N79W...TO COLOMBIA
ABOUT 40 NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE GULF OF URABA.
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 17N71W
TO 14N75W...TO AN 11N79W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. BROAD
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 11N79W CYCLONIC
CENTER EVEN REACHES THE COLOMBIA COAST NEAR THE GULF OF URABA.
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N74W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH
8N81W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 11N86W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA AND ITS EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF URABA
AND IN PANAMA FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 74W AND 80W...ISOLATED
MODERATE TO STRONG IN NORTHEASTERN COSTA RICA/SOUTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA.
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