nigel20's WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: nigel20, 3:47 PM GMT on March 26, 2012 | +6 |
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Electrical Engineering student that is interested in weather, especially tropical weather.
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APRSWXNET Kingston JM
Kingston,
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| Elevation: | 731 ft |
| Temperature: | 78.0 °F |
| Dew Point: | 69.0 °F |
| Humidity: | 75% |
| Wind: | 3.0 mph from the NNE |
| Wind Gust: | 7.0 mph |
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Updated: 11:17 PM EST on June 18, 2013
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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1001 PM AST WED MAY 2 2012
.UPDATE...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE
ONSHORE AND AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A FEW OF
THESE SHOWERS AREA AFFECTING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE INCOMING WEEKEND. GENERATING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS
OF OUR LOCAL FORECAST AREA. ON THURSDAY WILL VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT
OCCURRED TODAY...WITH MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AFFECTING THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. ON FRIDAY...WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...THIS WILL HELP LARGER AMOUNTS
OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER AREAS WITH SATURATED SOILS...
THEREFORE INCREASING THE CHANCES OF FLASH FLOODING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
643 AM AST THU MAY 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ISLANDS FROM TODAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BROAD LOW LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MID/UPPER TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS AT
LEAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH HAVE BEGUN TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE ISLANDS THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WERE OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
RANGED BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO DETERIORATE AND BECOME MORE ACTIVE LATER TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY AS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH COMBINES WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LIGHT
STEERING FLOW TO RESULT IN INTENSE AND SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH...THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SHOWED THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR...NORTH AND
WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...THE CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EVERYWHERE. SOILS ACROSS MOST OF PUERTO RICO AND
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ARE SATURATED...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL
AGGRAVATED THE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN...AND RIVERS
WILL REACT QUICKLY TO NEW RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AS A RESULT..A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND FOR ALL OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL...THERE WILL BE MUCH MORE FREQUENT THAN NORMAL
MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...WITH INTERVALS OF IFR
CONDITIONS...IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO
LOCALLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES AND
THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING...AND THEN FOCUSED
ACROSS MUCH OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE UP TO 6 FEET TODAY. GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 85 74 / 70 50 50 40
STT 82 74 85 76 / 70 50 50 40
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA..
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING E OF 70W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT OVER TWO NOTABLE AREAS OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE FIRST AREA IS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXTENSION OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTHEASTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 21N BETWEEN 80W-85W. FARTHER EAST...THE OTHER AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 20N61W TO 16N66W ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 67W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING FORECAST TO REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INCREASING PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND E OF 72W
8:05AM
Link
: THURSDAY 3RD MAY 2012 Time: 5:30 AM General Situation:
WARM AND MAINLY GOOD WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAIL.. 24hr Forecast: MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT; SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM INLAND THIS AFTERNOON Winds Sea State: Outlook: THROUGH TO SATURDAY MORNING: CONTINUING MAINLY GOOD WEATHER WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
Temperatures: Highs (today) Lows (tonight) Coast o o Coast 31° C 88° F Coast 25 o C 77 o F Inland o Inland 35° C 95° F Inland 22 o C 72° F Hills o o Hills 25° C 77° F Hills 19 o C 66 o F
ISSUED AT: 10:03AM Date:Thursday 03rd of May 2012 Meteorologist: B. Ramdatt FOR THE PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
: FOR THE PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT: TRINIDAD,TOBAGO & GRENADA: Mostly cloudy to overcast, with periods of showers or rain and the isolated thundershower. STREET OR FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF HEAVY SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER OF THE LESSER ANTILLIES THE REMAINDER OF THE LESSER ANTILLIES Partly cloudy with the isolated showers. SEAS: Slight WAVES: 1.0m to 1.5mIN OPEN WATERS Near calm IN SHLTD AREAS Temperature Units:Celsius FORECAST MAX TEMP. Piarco: 29 Crown Point: 29 Tides ISSUED AT: 05:16PM Date:Wednesday 02nd of May 2012 Port of Spain HIGH 01:23am 02:07pm LOW 07:37am 07:44pm Scarborough HIGH 01:01am 01:40pm LOW 07:20am 07:38pm WAVES: 1.0m to 1.5mIN OPEN WATERS Near calm IN SHLTD AREAS
Temperature Units:Celsius FORECAST MAX TEMP Piarco: 29 Crown Point: 29 Piarco: 29 Crown Point: 29 Tides ISSUED AT: 05:16PM Date:Wednesday 02nd of May 2012 Port of Spain HIGH 01:23am 02:07pm LOW 07:37am 07:44pm Port of Spain HIGH 01:23am 02:07pm LOW 07:37am 07:44pm Scarborough HIGH 01:01am 01:40pm LOW 07:20am 07:38pm
May 03, 2012 at 5:00 a.m. LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE…
High Pressure Ridge across Jamaica. Comment remain up to Sunday. Expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms during the afternoons. 24-HOUR FORECAST This morning… Mainly sunny except for partly cloudy conditions over sections of northern parishes This afternoon…Expect widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Tonight… Becoming fair Maximum temperatures expected today for Kingston 31 degrees Celsius Montego Bay 31 degrees Celsius 3-DAY FORECAST (starting tomorrow) Fri/Sat… Partly cloudy over northern parishes during the morning. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over sections of most parishes during the afternoon Sun… Isolated morning showers. Scattered afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms. Regionally… Trough across the eastern Caribbean generating scattered showers isolated thunderstorms
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE INCOMING WEEKEND.
GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR LOCAL FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE. ON FRIDAY...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY...THIS WILL HELP LARGER AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OVER AREAS WITH SATURATED SOILS... THEREFORE
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF FLASH FLOODING
SOILS ACROSS MOST OF PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ARE
SATURATED...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL AGGRAVATED THE MUDSLIDES
IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN...AND RIVERS WILL REACT QUICKLY TO NEW
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AS A RESULT..A FLASH FLOOD WATCH STILL IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES...AND FOR ALL OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
753 PM AST THU MAY 3 2012
PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-041000-
/O.CON.TJSJ.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-120505T0000Z/
/00000.0.OT.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO.. .YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...COAMO...
COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...JAYUYA...PONCE... AGUADILLA...
ISABELA...HATILLO...QUEBRADILLAS...UTUADO...SABAN A GRANDE...LARES...
ADJUNTAS...HORMIGUEROS...MOCA...AGUADA...LUYANDO. ..CABO ROJO...
LAJAS...CULEBRA...ESPERANZA...ANNA`S RETREAT...CHARLOTTE AMALIE...
CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST...CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...CRUZ BAY...
CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED...FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...GROVE PLACE
753 PM AST THU MAY 3 2012
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
* PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING AREAS...IN PUERTO RICO...CENTRAL INTERIOR...CULEBRA...
EASTERN INTERIOR...MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY...NORTH CENTRAL...
NORTHEAST...NORTHWEST...PONCE AND VICINITY...SAN JUAN AND
VICINITY...SOUTHEAST...SOUTHWEST...VIEQUES AND WESTERN INTERIOR.
IN VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST CROIX AND ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT
ISLANDS.
* THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
* A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN LOCATED JUST WEST THROUGH
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND NORTH ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH AND LOCAL
EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE SLOW
MOVING AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PERIODS OF INTENSE RAINFALL WITH
RATES OF AN INCH OR MORE PER HOUR.
* RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE
SOUTH COASTAL SECTIONS...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO SIX INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THESE
OVERALL AMOUNTS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF
SMALL STREAMS...RIVERS AND DRY GUTS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU ARE
IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP INFORMED...
AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.
PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE HEAVY
RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR CABLE
TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.
&&
$$
Okay, the cisterns are full, the island (St. Thomas) is green and I say "Enough already!"
Thanks so much for the updates!
No problem VIV
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA..
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING E OF 74W AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 23N71W TO 15N79W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE AMPLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT EAST OF THIS TROUGH AXIS OVER THE EASTER CARIBBEAN COUPLED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 22N62W TO 17N69W ARE PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS E OF 66W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE TROUGHING WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND E OF 75W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
8:05AM
May 04, 2012 at 5:00 a.m. LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE…
High Pressure Ridge across Jamaica. Comment Comment… The High Pressure will linger across the region until Saturday evening. Thereafter, a Trough will develop across the central Caribbean and become the dominant feature
24-HOUR FORECAST This morning…
Mainly sunny except for partly cloudy conditions over sections of northeastern parishes This afternoon…Expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over sections of southern parishes and the hilly inland areas of northern parishes parishes and the hilly inland areas of northern parishes Tonight… Becoming fair Maximum temperatures expected today for Kingston 31 degrees Celsius Montego Bay 31 degrees Celsius
3-DAY FORECAST (starting tomorrow) Sat/Sun…
Partly cloudy over northeastern parishes during the mornings, mainly sunny elsewhere During the afternoon expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over sections of most parishes Mon… Mainly sunny morning with scattered afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms across sections of central and western parishes Regionally… A Trough across the eastern Caribbean is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
ISSUED AT: 10:07AM Date:Friday 04th of May 2012 Meteorologist: A. Nancoo FOR THE PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:
TRINIDAD,TOBAGO AND THE REM.OF THE LESSER ANTILLES Continuing cloudy to overcast with periods of rain, scattered showers and the isolated rain, scattered showers and the isolated thundershower.
SEAS:
Slight to Normal WAVES: Up to 2.0mIN OPEN WATERS Less than 1.0m IN SHLTD AREAS Temperature Units:Celsius
FORECAST MAX TEMP Piarco:
30 Crown Point: 30 Piarco: 30 Crown Point: 30 Tides ISSUED AT: 06:11PM Date:Thursday 03rd of May 2012 Port of Spain HIGH 2:08am 3:01pm LOW 8:29am 8:33pm Port of Spain HIGH 2:08am 3:01pm LOW 8:29am 8:33pm Scarborough HIGH 2:29am 3:20pm LOW 8:57am 9:08pm
FORECAST FOR THE BAHAMAS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, FRIDAY 04TH MAY 2012
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CREATE FAIR WEATHER OVER THE BAHAMAS WEATHER: PTLY SUNNY WITH FEW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NW BAHAMAS, FAIR AND MILD TONIGHT WINDS: ENE/ESE 15 KNOTS SEAS:3/5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURE 84°F 29°C OVERNITE LOW TEMPERATURE 73°F 23°C SUNRISE: 6:32 AM MOONRISE: 6:22 PM LOW TIDE 12:51 PM SUNSET : 7:42 PM MOONSET: 5:51 AM HIGH TIDE 7:12
PM EXTENDED WEATHER FORECAST:
WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WEATHER: SUNNY AND WARM WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER WINDS: E'LY 10/15KTS SEAS: 2/4FT FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WEATHER: SUNNY AND WARM WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER WIND: VRB 10KNOTS SEAS: 1/3 FT
Weather Forecast for Bonaire and Curaçao valid until Saturday midday 12:00 l.t., May 5, 2012. Issued: Friday May 4, 2012. 11:00 l.t. (15:00 UTC). Weather:
Today:
Generally partly cloudy with chance of a local shower. Tonight through Saturday midday: Partly to mostly cloudy with chance of an isolated to widely scattered showers and risk of thunder Forecast high: 32°C and forecast low: 26°C. Sunrise: 06:14 and sunset at 18:50
Winds:
Easterly and gentle to fresh; force 3 to 5 (12 to 39 km/hr, 7 to 21 knots). During showers a few occasional gusts to possible strong; force 6 (40 to 50 km/hr, 22 to 27 knots). Synopsis: During the next 24 hours atmospheric conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for clouds and shower development. Some of these showers could be moderate to locally heavy with risk of thunder Winds will also diminish during the course of the weekend and an increase the warm and muggy feeling
Sea conditions:
Generally moderate with wave heights between 1 and 2 meters.
Special features:
N one Outlook until Sunday midday: thunder. Some of these showers could be locally heavy
Forecaster: Luciano
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1146 AM AST FRI MAY 4 2012
PRC069-077-085-129-151-041845-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0160.120504T1546Z-120504T1845Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
JUNCOS PR-LAS PIEDRAS PR-SAN LORENZO PR-YABUCOA PR-HUMACAO PR-
1146 AM AST FRI MAY 4 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
JUNCOS...LAS PIEDRAS...SAN LORENZO...YABUCOA AND HUMACAO
* UNTIL 245 PM AST
* AT 1146 AM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA.
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...ROADS
AND ROADSIDE CULVERTS. THE HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO TRIGGER ROCK AND
MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN.
DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.
&&
LAT...LON 1819 6597 1824 6584 1814 6582 1810 6594
$$
GV
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
143 PM AST FRI MAY 4 2012
PRC095-042045-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0161.120504T1743Z-120504T2045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
MAUNABO PR-
143 PM AST FRI MAY 4 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITY...
IN PUERTO RICO
MAUNABO
* UNTIL 445 PM AST
* AT 143 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&
LAT...LON 1805 6596 1801 6585 1798 6591 1803 6596
$$
GV
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
157 PM AST FRI MAY 4 2012
PRC029-031-087-119-127-139-042045-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0162.120504T1757Z-120504T2045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CANOVANAS PR-SAN JUAN PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-CAROLINA PR-RIO GRANDE PR-
LOIZA PR-
157 PM AST FRI MAY 4 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
CANOVANAS...SAN JUAN...TRUJILLO ALTO...CAROLINA...RIO GRANDE AND
LOIZA
* UNTIL 445 PM AST
* AT 150 PM AST... WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR OVER THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH. THE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
OVER TWO INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN
METROPOLITAN AREA IN THE PAST HOUR.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&
LAT...LON 1844 6582 1841 6581 1832 6586 1834 6608
1846 6608 1846 6604 1845 6602 1846 6600
$$
EM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
159 PM AST FRI MAY 4 2012
PRC075-113-149-042100-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0163.120504T1759Z-120504T2100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
JUANA DIAZ PR-PONCE PR-VILLALBA PR-
159 PM AST FRI MAY 4 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
JUANA DIAZ...PONCE AND VILLALBA
* UNTIL 500 PM AST
* AT 159 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA.
DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.
&&
LAT...LON 1810 6667 1814 6643 1803 6643 1803 6668
$$
GV
229 PM AST FRI MAY 4 2012
PRC093-097-125-042130-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0164.120504T1829Z-120504T2130Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
MARICAO PR-SAN GERMAN PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-
229 PM AST FRI MAY 4 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
MARICAO...SAN GERMAN AND MAYAGUEZ
* UNTIL 530 PM AST
* AT 229 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&
LAT...LON 1813 6709 1822 6707 1817 6697 1806 6701
$$
GV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST FRI MAY 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...THE LOCAL REGION WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED OVER THE SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS
DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THEM...GENERATING RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF BETWEEN 2 TO 3 INCHES.
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. THIS WEATHER PATTERN
IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AS
STEERING WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARD A MORE NORTHEAST COMPONENT.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR TO CONT EXCEPT MVFR IN A FEW SHRA/TSRA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT. EXPECT WINDS GENERALLY VARIABLE
BELOW FL120 AT LESS THAN 15 KTS BUT INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS ABOVE.
&&
.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
SMALL. MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR THE NWS FORECAST AND LOCAL MARINE
PRODUCTS AS HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 84 75 / 60 20 50 40
STT 84 75 84 75 / 40 40 40 40
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA..
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 11N/12N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NICARAGUA WITH NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 23N59W INTO THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA AND COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINES. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER NW VENEZUELA... COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 70W-80W AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE REMAINDER OF PANAMA AND ALL OF COSTA RICA. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N W OF 65W TO ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR STATIONARY THROUGH SUN THEN SHIFT SE TO N LEEWARDS BY WED.
8:05PM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1053 PM AST FRI MAY 4 2012
.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT HAD OCCURRED
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND MOST OF THE ADJACENT ISLANDS QUICKLY MOVED
OFFSHORE OR DISSIPATED DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...LEAVING
VARIABLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CALM TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AS WELL AS LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGESTS THAT BROAD MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTED BY LOW/LEVEL TROUGH...WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL HOWEVER EXTEND FURTHER NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN INTO THE ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE LOW LEVEL WINDS AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
AND OVERALL CONVECTIVE STEERING FLOW FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH...
ACTIVITY HAVE TAPERED OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS...STILL EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
AND WELL AS OVER PARTS OF THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.
ON SATURDAY EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION
AS AMPLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE DAYTIME
WILL BE ENHANCED DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME SPOTS ACROSS THE
ISLANDS. RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN AT HIGH LEVELS IN SOME
AREAS AND THE SOIL REMAIN FAIRLY SATURATED IN MOST AREAS. THEREFORE
ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL QUICKLY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS THEREFORE BEEN EXTENDED
AT LEAST UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PENDING FURTHER REVISION DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO
THE INHERITED SHORT TERM GRIDS FOR NOW.
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA..
A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER NW VENEZUELA NEAR 11N71W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 70W-78W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER COSTA RICA...EL SALVADOR...AND SW HONDURAS. THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 20N62W TO 16N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. FURTHER S... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 14N E OF 80W TO INCLUDE THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN DUE TO RIDGING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
8:05AM
May 05, 2012 at 5:00 a.m. LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE…
Trough over the central Caribbean Comment The Trough remains over the Caribbean basin over the next few days but meanders across Jamaica and is west of the island on Monday drifting to the east of the island on Tuesday
24-HOUR FORECAST
This morning… Morning showers over northeastern parishes. Generally fair otherwise This afternoon…Scattered showers and thunderstorms over northern parishes and northern portions of southern parishes.. Tonight… Generally fair Maximum temperatures expected today for Kingston 31 degrees Celsius Montego Bay 31 degrees Celsius
3-DAY FORECAST
(starting tomorrow) Sun… Generally fair morning. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms over southern parishes and inland areas of northern parishes Mon… Morning showers over northern parishes. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms over central and western parishes Tue… Generally fair morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms over central and western parishes
Regionally…
High Pressure Ridge is north of the Caribbean. A weak Cold Front is east of the Bahamas.
rar
ISSUED AT: 06:17AM Date:Saturday 05th of May 2012 Meteorologist: B. Ramdatt FOR THE PERIOD TODAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT
TRINIDAD,TOBAGO AND THE SouthernWindwards Mostly cloudy to overcast, with periods of showers or rain, and the isolated thundershower. THE REMAINDER OF THE LESSER ANTILLIES THE REMAINDER OF THE LESSER ANTILLIES Fair to partly cloudy with isolated showers Gusty winds,street and flash flooding may occur in heavy showers and thundershowers.
SEAS:
Slight WAVES: 1.0m to 1.5m IN OPEN WATERS Near calm IN SHLTD AREAS Temperature Units:Celsius LAST NIGHT MIN. TEMP. Piarco: 24 Crown Point: 25
FORECAST MAX.
TEMP. Piarco: 29 Crown Point: 29 Tides ISSUED AT: 05:07PM Date:Friday 04th of May 2012 Port of Spain HIGH 2.53a 3.53p LOW 9.20a 9.23p Scarborough HIGH 2.29a 3.20p LOW 8.57a 9.08p LAST NIGHT MIN. TEMP Piarco: 24 Crown Point: 25 FORECAST MAX. TEMP Piarco: 29 Crown Point: 29 Piarco: 29 Crown Point: 29 Tides ISSUED AT: 05:07PM Date:Friday 04th of May 2012 Port of Spain HIGH 2.53a 3.53p LOW 9.20a 9.23p Port of Spain HIGH 2.53a 3.53p LOW 9.20a 9.23p Scarborough HIGH 2.29a 3.20p LOW 8.57a 9.08p
Public Forecast Northwest Bahamas PUBLIC FORECAST FOR THE BAHAMAS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, SATURDAY 05TH MAY 2012 GENERAL SITUATION:
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS TODAY CUASING STABLE CONDITIONS; HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CAUSES SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS
HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN ISSUED AT 2:45PM, FRIDAY 4TH MAY, 2012
A trough system located to the west of the island chain has induced the northward movement of the Inter Tropica Convergence Zone across Barbados. This has resulted in cloudy to overcast skies, some outbreaks of moderate to heavy showers, periods of rain and isolated thunderstorms spreading over the island during the day Analysis suggest that these unsettled conditions will persist into the weekend, during which time similar outbreaks of moderate to heavy showers, periods of rain and isolated thunderstorms can be expected. Residents in flood prone areas should exercise caution and remain on the alert. This department will continue to monitor the situation and will issue a further update if it becomes necessary ���������. Hampden Lovel Director - BMS
Meteorologist: Clairmonte Williams
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 PM AST SAT MAY 5 2012
.DISCUSSION...SOME CLOUDS THIS MORNING...SOME ONSHORE FLOW FOR
NORTHERN PR...AND MID LEVEL DRYING (ABOVE 18 KFT) AS INDICATED BY
WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND 12Z TJSJ RAOB ALL LIKELY SLOWED ONSET OF
DEEP CONVECTION FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS MORE THAN FRIDAY. BUT
SHOWERS/THUNDER ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING WHERE SOILS REMAIN
SATURATED FROM SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAVY RAIN. KEPT FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THIS CONVECTIVE PERIOD THEN SUNDAY BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE.
PREICIPITABLE WATER TO DROP OFF VERY SLIGHTLY LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY
WHILE AN UPPER JET CONTINUES IN VICINITY AND THE AREA UNDER
RIGHT/REAR ENTRANCE LOCATION. THE WEAK 5H TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
NEAR HISPANIOLA IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND MOVING EAST...PROBABLY
A NON-FACTOR BY SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE VERY WEAK NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MOST WIDESPREAD FOR
INTERIOR PR WHERE STRONGEST HEATING WILL BE. LEANED ON WRF FOR
LOCATION OF QPF THOUGH TONED DOWN ITS VALUES. MOISTURE TO RETURN
TO SEASONAL VALUES LATER IN THE WEEK WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.
CONVECTION WILL RETURN TO ISOLATED AND SCATTERED.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR ALL LOCAL TAF SITES EXCEPT PSBL
BRIEF MVFR/IFR THRU LATE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS OVER LAND WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT WILL CONT OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 06/16Z WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
OR EVEN IFR IN SHRA/ISOLD TSRA...AND MOUNTAINS OBSCURATIONS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 83 75 86 / 10 40 30 30
STT 76 84 73 78 / 30 30 30 30
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA..
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REFLECT SIGNIFICANT DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE ERN AND S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BASINS THIS EVENING. THE LARGE SCALE SURFACE WIND PATTERN FROM MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOWS WIDE TROUGHINESS AROUND A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE AREA...ANALYZED ALONG ANGUILLA TO A 1008 MB LOW OVER THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 12N73W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 110 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF PANAMA AND WRN COLOMBIA BETWEEN 74W-83W...AS THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND OVER THESE TERRITORIES. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NW CARIBBEAN.
8:05PM
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
454 AM AST SUN MAY 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WILL MOVE EWD NEXT 24 HRS WHILE
SLOWLY WEAKENING. BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES NEAR THE ABC ISLANDS WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SRN LEEWARD ISLANDS OVR THE NEXT
72 HRS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE FAIRLY DEEP EARLY THIS MORNING AS IT
EXTENDS THROUGH AT LEAST 300 MB AS SEEN ON A 07Z GOES SOUNDER
SCAN. BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SHOWS PWAT VALUES HAVE RISEN TO 2.32
INCHES ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF OUR CWA AND IS LIKELY TO RISE A BIT
MORE THROUGH 18Z PER GFS FORECAST. WITH ANOTHER S/W TROUGH FCST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY...THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN FOR
HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING LATER TODAY THIS TIME OVER THE
SOUTH COAST AND ESPECIALLY FAR ERN PR AND ALL OF THE ADJACENT
ISLANDS AND USVI. MODELS INITIALIZE A SHEARLINE CONFLUENCE LINE
ALONG 17N WHICH IS FCST TO LIFT NWD THIS MORNING AND SERVE AS
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST HI-RES
MODELS AND GFS/GFES SHOW POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP BETWEEN FAR ERN PR AND SAINT CROIX WHICH MAY POSE A RISK
OF FLASH FLOODING. OPTED AGAINST ANOTHER FLOOD WATCH AS LATEST
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY HAVE NOT SHOWN ANY SIG CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA.
THINGS BEGIN TO DRY OUT RAPIDLY TONIGHT ON THE WAKE OF S/W TROUGH
WITH SIG IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED MON THRU MID WEEK. WHILE MODELS SHOW
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE LACKING AND
EXPECT NO MORE THAN YOUR TYPICAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE
CORDILLERA. STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAK FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUE
THEN SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WED-SAT. EXPECT ALSO A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS LIKELY TO EXCEED 90F BY THU AS
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND H10-H85 MB THICKNESSES RISE. TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SURGE IN MOISTURE UNDER A SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE AFTER 06/12Z WITH PERIODS OF
MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDS IN AND AROUND TJSJ/TJPS AND TIST/TISX. TEMPO
MVFR/IFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT TNCM/TKPK THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE BELOW 10K FT...BECOMING WESTERLY AND
STRONGER WITH HEIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...NMRS TSRA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 17N
THE MAIN HAZARD WITH LOCALLY HIGH WINDS AND WAVES. OTHERWISE...SEAS
RATHER TRANQUIL IN THE 1 TO 3 FT RANGE. THINGS BEGIN TO IMPROVE
TONIGHT WITH TSRA LIKELY TO MOVE OUT OF OUR CWA BY 06Z MON IF NOT SOONER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 84 74 / 50 30 30 10
STT 77 76 78 76 / 60 30 30 20
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA..
A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 12N72W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND N VENEZUELA N OF 5N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...EL SALVADOR...AND HONDURAS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N60W TO 15N68W TO N COLOMBIA NEAR 12N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 62W-69W. A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN DUE TO RIDGING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE. EXPECT...THE LOW OVER N COLOMBIA TO DRIFT NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION
8:05AM
ISSUED AT: 07:14AM Date:Sunday 06th of May 2012 Meteorologist: O. Lovell FOR THE PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT: TRINIDAD,TOBAGO AND THE REM.OF THE LESSER ANTILLES: Partly cloudy to cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thundershowers.
Gusty winds,street and flash flooding may occur in heavy showers and thundershowers.
SEAS:
Slight WAVES: 1.0m to 1.5mIN OPEN WATERS Near calm IN SHLTD AREAS Temperature Units:Celsius
FORECAST MAX TEMP.
Piarco: 30 Crown Point: 30 Piarco: 30 Crown Point: 30 Tides ISSUED AT: 05:25PM Date:Saturday 05th of May 2012 Port of Spain HIGH 03.38am 04.44pm LOW 10.10am 10.12pm Scarborough HIGH 03.12am 04.10pm LOW 09.46am 09.55pm
May 06, 2012 at 5:00 a.m. LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE…
Weak High Pressure north of Jamaica. Comment Comment… tomorrow but the Trough over the area drifts to the east of the island on Tuesday
24-HOUR FORECAST
This morning… Morning showers over northeastern parishes. Generally fair otherwise This afternoon… Scattered showers and thunderstorms over inland areas Mostly cloudy otherwise Tonight… Generally fair Maximum temperatures expected today for Kingston 31 degrees Celsius Montego Bay 31 degrees Celsius
3-DAY FORECAST
(starting tomorrow) Mon… Morning showers over northeastern parishes. Scattered showers and thunderstorms over central and western parishes and inland areas of eastern parishes Tue… Generally fair morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms over northern and southwestern parishes Wed… Generally fair morning. Isolated afternoon showers over inland areas and western parishes Regionally… High Pressure Ridge is north of the Caribbean. A Trough is over the eastern Caribbean
Link
I'm not sure if the surface trough in the eastern is the cause of the crash
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...EXPECT LESS IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY
OVERALL...BUT STILL WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO COMBINE WITH
LOCAL EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THEN...FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ADDITIONAL APPROACHING MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHINESS FROM THE WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST AND DEEPER
MOISTURE GRADUALLY LIFTING "BACK" TO THE WEST NORTHWEST...SHOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER INCREASINGLY ACTIVE FEW DAYS ACROSS THE FA.
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA..
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REFLECT SIGNIFICANT DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS EVENING. THE LARGE SCALE SURFACE WIND PATTERN FROM MARINE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWS WIDE TROUGHINESS AROUND A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE AREA...ANALYZED ALONG THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE WRN COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 12N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATED ON THE FAR ERN BASIN INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES ISLANDS. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OVER THIS GROUP OF ISLANDS. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.
8:05PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
939 PM AST SUN MAY 6 2012
.UPDATE...SHOWERS DISSIPATED OVER PUERTO RICO UNTIL ABOUT
23Z...THEN NEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED FROM VEGA BAJA TO CEIBA...BUT
THESE SHOWERS WERE SMALLER AND WERE MOVING INLAND...SOUTH...BEFORE MUCH RAIN
COULD ACCUMULATE. AT THIS TIME ALL RIVERS...EXCEPT THE RIO GRANDE
DE MANATI AT MANATI...WERE FALLING. RIO GRANDE DE MANATI IS
EXPECTED TO CREST BEFORE 07/03Z AND THEN FALL STEADILY THROUGH THE
NIGHT. NEVERTHELESS IT WILL LIKELY NOT FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE
BEFORE 6 AM AST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MOIST AIR CONTINUES OVER PUERTO RICO WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER ONLY SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. WINDS
REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND CLOUDINESS WILL HAVE CLEARED CONSIDERABLY
BY MORNING AND WILL ALLOW GOOD HEATING IN THE INTERIOR. HENCE WILL
CONTINUE WITH FORECAST OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE
INTERIOR. DO NOT EXPECT AS MUCH FLOODING BUT SOME LOCAL URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING SHOULD BE EXPECTED. ONLY MINOR CHANGES IN
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS MODELS REMAIN MOIST WHICH IS
SEASONAL FOR MAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLD-SCT LLVL CLD LYRS BTW 015-060K FT WITH BKN-OVC CIG BTW
080-120K FT ACROSS THE FLYING AREA. MOST DENSE CLD CVR BTW ERN PR
AND NRN LEEWARDS WITH EMBEDDED SHRA/ISOLD TSRA. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HOWEVER EXPECTED TO BE CIRCUMNAVIGABLE BUT EXPECT BRIEF
MVFR CONDS IN SHRA AND LOW SCUD CLDS EN ROUTE BTW ERN PR AND
VIRGIN ISLANDS. PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT FOR TKPK AND TCNM WHERE TEMPO MVFR CONDS REMAIN PSBL TIL
07/12Z DUE TO SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS VCTY. MTN TOP OBSCR ALSO PSBL OVR E
HALF OF CTRL MTN RANGE OF PR DUE TO LOW CLDS/LGT RA WITH PSBL
EARLY MORNING FOG. WNDS LGT AND VRB BLO 10K FT.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
408 AM AST MON MAY 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LEEWARDS TO THE ABC
ISLANDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS SFC RIDGING TO THE NORTH EXPANDS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MUCH NEEDED DRYING ALREADY TAKING PLACE THIS MORNING
WITH PWAT DOWN ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH FROM 00Z PER LATEST
BLENDED TPW IMAGERY AND A 0720Z GOES SOUNDER SCAN. MODELS ALSO
SHOW A SLIGHT DROP IN K INDEX AND H85 THETAE VALUES TODAY WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN A DROP IN CONVECTIVE CVRG AND INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS. STEERING FLOW WILL BE TO THE EAST OR EAST SOUTHEAST
KEEPING ANY STORMS AWAY FROM HARDEST HIT AREAS OF THE MANATI AND
CIBUCO RIVER BASINS. SO OVERALL SHOULD SEE SIG IMPROVEMENT TODAY
WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST FOUR DAYS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN
FOR TUE AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH FCST TO EXIT THE U.S.
SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TODAY.
MOISTURE STARTS SURGING AGAIN FROM THE EAST WED AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS AND S/W TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LIKELY TO SEE
SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE CVRG WED-SAT. ALSO STEERING FLOW WILL
BE VERY LIGHT WED WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT NORTHEAST DRIFT SO
ANTICIPATE VERY SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. THU AND FRI STEERING
FLOW BECOMES BETTER DEFINED FROM THE SOUTH FAVORING THE NORTH
COAST FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THIS ALSO FAVORS WARMER TEMPERATURES
WHICH ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED 90F ADDING MORE INSTABILITY. MOISTURE
BECOMES DEEPER OVER THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHEAST FLOW STRENGTHENS IN
RESPONSE TO EXPANDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH WITH NORTH CNTRL AND
NORTHWEST COAST FAVORED FOR DEEP CONVECTION. SIG DRYING IS
SUGGESTED BY GLOBAL MODELS TO START THE SECOND HALF OF THE MONTH
AS MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES WITH ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS IN AND AROUND TJSJ/TIST AND
TISX THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AFT 07/16Z...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL
INCLUDING THE VICINITY OF TJMZ AND TJPS THROUGH ABOUT 07/22Z. ALSO...
MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE OVER TKPK AND TNCM THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 10 KTS FROM THE SURFACE TO
AROUND 7 KFT...BECOMING WESTERLY AND STRONGER WITH HEIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS 2 TO 4 FT INCREASING TO 5 FT FROM WED ON IN NORTH
SWELLS. WINDS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 75 85 75 / 40 30 30 20
STT 77 77 78 77 / 40 30 30 40
THE CARIBBEAN SEA..
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 22N69W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO 15N75W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF THE 22N69W 15N75W TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N61W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 16N67W TO NORTHWESTERN COASTAL VENEZUELA NEAR 12N70W. A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS NEAR 22N67W. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 250 NM TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND ABOUT 180 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS FEATURE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 20N62W 14N70W 12N76W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THIS AREA EARLIER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN HAVE WEAKENED. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE LINGERING PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 07/0000 UTC ARE 0.35 INCHES IN CURACAO...AND 0.23 INCHES IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W TO PANAMA NEAR 9N80W...BEYOND 10N85W IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA. NO AREAS OF 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE OBSERVED AT THE PRESENT TIME NOR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS
8:05AM
PUBLIC FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT MONDAY 07TH MAY 2012 GENERAL SITUATION:
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COUNTRY TODAY WEATHER: SUNNY AND VERY WARM TODAY. MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD TONIGHT WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SEAS:
3 FEET OR LESS DAYTIME
HIGH TEMP: 86F 30C OVERNIGHT LOW: 68F 20C SUNRISE: 6:30AM SUNSET: 7:43PM MOONSET: 7:42AM MOONRISE:
9:44PM HIGH TIDE: 9:18AM & 9:49PM LOW TIDE: 3:26PM EXTENDED WEATHER FORECAST: SUNNY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE COUNTRY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK
ISSUED AT: 05:18AM Date:Monday 07th of May 2012
Meteorologist: A. Alexander
FOR THE PERIOD TODAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT TRINIDAD,TOBAGO AND THE REM.OF THE LESSER ANTILLES Partly cloudy except for some cloudy periods with scattered showers and isolated late morning to scattered showers and isolated late morning to afternoon thundershowers Gusty winds,street and flash flooding may occur in heavy showers and thundershowers
SEAS:
Slight WAVES: 1.0m to 1.5m IN OPEN WATERS Calm IN SHLTD AREAS
Temperature Units:Celsius LAST NIGHT MIN. TEMP Piarco: 24 Crown Point: 25 FORECAST MAX. TEMP Piarco: 32 Crown Point: 30 Piarco: 32 Crown Point: 30 Tides ISSUED AT: 05:16PM Date:Sunday 06th of May 2012 Port of Spain HIGH 4.25am 5.33pm LOW 10.59am 11.03pm Port of Spain HIGH 4.25am 5.33pm LOW 10.59am 11.03pm Scarborough HIGH 3.59am 5.01pm LOW 10.37am 1
May 07, 2012 at 5:00 a.m. LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE…
Weak High Pressure Ridge north of Jamaica. Comment The High Pressure Ridge will remain until Tuesday thereafter a trough will migrate into the centra Caribbean
24-HOUR FORECAST
This morning… Mainly sunny , except for partly cloudy condition over northeastern parishes This afternoon… Scattered showers and thunderstorms over inland areas of mainly southern parishes Tonight… Generally fair Maximum temperatures expected today for Kingston 31 degrees Celsius Montego Bay 31 degrees Celsius
3-DAY FORECAST
(starting tomorrow) Tue/Wed… Mainly sunny mornings. Widely scattered afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms. Thu… Mainly sunny morning. Isolated afternoon showers. Regionally… A Trough is generating cloudy conditions with showers across the eastern Caribbean
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
416 PM AST MON MAY 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED
PAST PUERTO RICO TOWARD THE EAST AND ITS PASSAGE WILL ALLOW THE
CORE OF THE JET OVER THE AREA TO MOVE JUST TO THE NORTH TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ON THURSDAY A SECOND WEAK TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA AND A THIRD WILL PASS THROUGH ON SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH WILL FLATTEN OUT DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS...WHILE A SECOND DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND MOVES
TOWARD THE AREA DURING THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE
CARIBBEAN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AT LOWER LEVELS...A BROAD AND WEAK TROUGH IS BRINGING CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES THAT WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT BACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS IT WEAKENS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WIND SURGE WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN AREA OF
MUCH DRIER AIR BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB AND CAUSE SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE AREA IN GENERAL TO DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS MORNING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST SLOPES OF
PUERTO RICO DISSIPATED...SHOWERS OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL
FORMED ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE ISLANDS. SHOWERS ALSO FORMED
AROUND SAINT CROIX AND NORTH OF SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN DURING
THE MIDDAY HOURS. SHOWERS WERE ALSO SEEN LINGERING OVER AND BEYOND
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE STATIONARY BAND
OF CONVERGENCE THAT STRETCHES FROM SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.
HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF CAPE COD WILL BEGIN PUSHING THE LARGE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MOST OF THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TO THE EAST AND TURN WIND FLOW OVER US TO THE SOUTHEAST.
BY MID WEEK THE HIGH WILL NOSE TOWARD THE AREA ALONG 60 WEST. BUT
AS IT CONTINUES EAST FLOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL AGAIN
BECOME STRONGLY SOUTHERLY. THIS AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE
WILL CAUSE THE BAND TO WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHWEST BACK
OVER AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY INCREASING
MOISTURE THAT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DRIER AIR ARRIVES WITH A WIND SURGE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST CARRYING SOME AFRICAN DUST. AT THIS TIME THE
DAILY CYCLE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED BY LOWER MOISTURE CONTENT.
SURFACE AND LOWER LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AND
BANDS OF MOISTURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON FLOW CREATED BY
HIGH PRESSURE THAT FINALLY IS ABLE TO REGAIN CONTROL OF THE
ATLANTIC.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NAM AND THE GFS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY
BETWEEN NOW AND 84 HOURS WITH THE NAM TAKING PRECIPITABLE WATER
BELOW 1.6 INCHES AND THE GFS TAKING IT ABOVE 2 INCHES BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND THE GENERAL PATTERN SEEM TO INDICATE THAT
THE NAM IS THE OUTLIER AND HENCE HAVE IGNORED ITS DRYING TREND.
NEVERTHELESS SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT TOMORROW UNTIL
MOISTURE FROM THE CONVERGENCE BAND TO THE SOUTHEAST CAN RETURN.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAFS SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SOME SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE SHRA/TSRA. LLVL WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KTS...VEERING TO THE
EAST AFTER 08/06Z.
&&
.MARINE...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING
THE NEXT 7 DAYS...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 7 FEET DURING THE
PERIOD. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE EXPECTED MAINLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 75 86 / 30 30 40 40
STT 75 84 76 86 / 30 30 40 30
CARIBBEAN SEA..
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 13N. THE MOST DISCERNIBLE AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 64W AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE COUPLED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 18N63W TO 14N68W IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS...INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO OCCURRING S OF 13N AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 10N. THE EASTERN PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA TO EASTERN PANAMA NEAR 09N77W.
8:05AM
Link
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
412 AM AST TUE MAY 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE LEEWARDS WILL MIGRATE WEST OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVR THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DRY OUT THIS MORNING WITH
LATEST BLENDED TPW IMAGERY INDICATING PWAT VALUES DOWN TO 1.4 INCHES
OR ALMOST HALF INCH LOWER THAN ON THE 00Z RAOB. A 0720Z GOES
SOUNDER SCAN SHOWS DRY AND STABLE AIR EXTENDS ALMOST DOWN TO 700
MB. WE SHOULD SEE A MINIMA IN PRECIPITATION TODAY BEFORE DEEP
MOISTURE BEGINS TO SURGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST LATE WED. SFC
TROUGH ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL MIGRATE WWD NEXT FEW DAYS
AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DEEP SURGE IN MOISTURE AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. 00Z GFS VERY BULLISH IN
TERMS OF RAINFALL POTENTIAL THU INDICATING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO ONE HALF INCHES OF RAIN CONCENTRATING NORTH OF
THE CORDILLERA AND AROUND ST. CROIX. TSTM ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE
ENHANCED BY A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH
CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CNTRL CUBA.
TROF AXIS PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRI WHILE SFC TROF WEAKENS
FURTHER AS IT MOVES FARTHER AWAY INTO THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN. A SLOW
DRYING TREND IS INDICATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE
SOUTHEAST WINDS PICK UP AS SFC RIDGE TO THE NORTH EXPANDS. EARLY
NEXT WEEK...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN
WITH A CLOSED H5 HIGH CENTERED OVR PR MON AFTERNOON. AT
H25...MODELS ALSO SHOW BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WITH AXIS OVR PR.
SOME SUGGEST AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ATLC
NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD RESULT IN FURTHER DRYING THAN CURRENTLY
SUGGESTED BY GFS AND ECMWF. THIS MEANS THAT THE SECOND HALF OF THE
MONTH IS LIKELY TO BE MUCH DRIER THAN NORMAL AS OMEGA BLOCK
PATTERN TENDS TO LAST FOR A WEEK OR TWO BEFORE EVENTUALLY BREAKING DOWN.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BTW 08/16Z AND 08/22Z
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ IN
SHRA/TSRA. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 10 KTS FROM THE
SURFACE TO AROUND 5 KFT...BECOMING WESTERLY AND STRONGER WITH
HEIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS 2 TO 4 FT IN NNE SWELLS INCREASING TO 5 FT AFTER
THU. WINDS PICK UP BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW 20 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 86 75 / 20 40 30 10
STT 78 75 79 75 / 20 40 20 30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
412 AM AST TUE MAY 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE LEEWARDS WILL MIGRATE WEST OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVR THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DRY OUT THIS MORNING WITH
LATEST BLENDED TPW IMAGERY INDICATING PWAT VALUES DOWN TO 1.4 INCHES
OR ALMOST HALF INCH LOWER THAN ON THE 00Z RAOB. A 0720Z GOES
SOUNDER SCAN SHOWS DRY AND STABLE AIR EXTENDS ALMOST DOWN TO 700
MB. WE SHOULD SEE A MINIMA IN PRECIPITATION TODAY BEFORE DEEP
MOISTURE BEGINS TO SURGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST LATE WED. SFC
TROUGH ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL MIGRATE WWD NEXT FEW DAYS
AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DEEP SURGE IN MOISTURE AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. 00Z GFS VERY BULLISH IN
TERMS OF RAINFALL POTENTIAL THU INDICATING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO ONE HALF INCHES OF RAIN CONCENTRATING NORTH OF
THE CORDILLERA AND AROUND ST. CROIX. TSTM ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE
ENHANCED BY A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH
CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CNTRL CUBA.
TROF AXIS PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRI WHILE SFC TROF WEAKENS
FURTHER AS IT MOVES FARTHER AWAY INTO THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN. A SLOW
DRYING TREND IS INDICATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE
SOUTHEAST WINDS PICK UP AS SFC RIDGE TO THE NORTH EXPANDS. EARLY
NEXT WEEK...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN
WITH A CLOSED H5 HIGH CENTERED OVR PR MON AFTERNOON. AT
H25...MODELS ALSO SHOW BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WITH AXIS OVR PR.
SOME SUGGEST AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ATLC
NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD RESULT IN FURTHER DRYING THAN CURRENTLY
SUGGESTED BY GFS AND ECMWF. THIS MEANS THAT THE SECOND HALF OF THE
MONTH IS LIKELY TO BE MUCH DRIER THAN NORMAL AS OMEGA BLOCK
PATTERN TENDS TO LAST FOR A WEEK OR TWO BEFORE EVENTUALLY BREAKING DOWN.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BTW 08/16Z AND 08/22Z
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ IN
SHRA/TSRA. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 10 KTS FROM THE
SURFACE TO AROUND 5 KFT...BECOMING WESTERLY AND STRONGER WITH
HEIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS 2 TO 4 FT IN NNE SWELLS INCREASING TO 5 FT AFTER
THU. WINDS PICK UP BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW 20 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 86 75 / 20 40 30 10
STT 78 75 79 75 / 20 40 20 30
National Hurricane Center Discussion
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY AND SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS PUSHING
MOISTURE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...WITHIN 360 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE LINE THAT STARTS NEAR 10N68W IN COASTAL VENEZUELA...BEYOND
15N60W INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS NEAR THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...FROM
12N TO 13N BETWEEN 60W AND 61W...FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 57W AND
60W...FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 61W AND 63W...AND FROM 12N TO 13N
BETWEEN 68W AND 69W NEAR THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES. A SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N60W TO 16N64W
TO 11N70W AT THE VENEZUELA COAST. BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. NO AREAS OF 20 KNOT
WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE OBSERVED AT THE PRESENT TIME
NOR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
8:05AM
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