nigel20's WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: nigel20, 3:47 PM GMT on March 26, 2012 | +6 |
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Electrical Engineering student that is interested in weather, especially tropical weather.
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APRSWXNET Kingston JM
Kingston,
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| Elevation: | 731 ft |
| Temperature: | 83.0 °F |
| Dew Point: | 73.0 °F |
| Humidity: | 71% |
| Wind: | 6.0 mph from the SSW |
| Wind Gust: | 0.0 mph |
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Updated: 12:57 PM EST on February 06, 2013
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Good to know that Puerto Rico is finaly getting some dry weather
CARIBBEAN SEA..
A BROAD UPPER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER EL SALVADOR. THIS FEATURE IS INFLUENCING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH DRY AIR AND MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE OBSERVED WITH SOME LOW TOP SCATTERED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. SOME OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA. THIS FLOW IS BANKING SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING.
8:05PM
TOMORROW SHOWERS WILL VERY LIKELY FORM OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO
AND HAVE RAISED THE POPS IN MAYAGUEZ WHERE IT IS MOST LIKELY THAT
THUNDERSHOWERS WILL OCCUR. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW INSTABILITY
DECREASING BUT STILL QUITE SUBSTANTIAL SO WOULD EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THE MOST VIGOROUS SHOWERS FORM. HAVE KEPT
HAZE...AS SAHARAN DUST IS STILL PRESENT IN A NUMBER OF AREAS. NAAPS
PRODUCT PRODUCED IN MONTEREY SHOWS THIS AREA WILL BE FADING AND
MOVING ON. DUST WILL CONTINUE TO COME IN FROM THE SAHARA BUT THE
MODEL SHOWS IT FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE CARIBBEAN. I SUSPECT WE WILL
STILL NOTICE SOME WHITISH TINGE TO THE SKIES AND HILLS DURING THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE AS THICK AS WE SAW
IT TODAY.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
450 AM AST SUN MAY 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST WHILE
DISSIPATES TODAY AND TOMORROW. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN MAINTAINING A LIGHT AND RELATIVELY DRY
EAST SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A DRY TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
MID TO UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...CONTINUES TO
MIGRATES TO THE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE TROUGH
SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT...AN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN NORTH OF THE AREA ALLOWING FRESH TRADE WINDS
TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
WITH A MORE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...MODELS GUIDANCE SUGGEST...A GENERALLY DRY TREND ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. IN FACT...PWAT VALUES IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM
NEAR 1.85 TO 1.5 INCHES BY LATE TODAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER AS OCCURRED
YESTERDAY...THE AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE EACH DAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL ISLAND EFFECTS TO INDUCE A ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDS REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND 13/12Z...MAINLY
OVER OR VCNTY OF TNCM...TKPK...TIST AND TISX. SOME HAZINESS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA BUT VIS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6 MILES. LATEST
SOUNDING AND MODELS SHOWED LLVL WINDS MAINLY FM THE EAST AT 5 TO 15
KTS. SHRA/ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED 13/18Z-21Z IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND
TJBQ.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 86 77 / 30 20 20 30
STT 86 77 87 77 / 30 20 20 20
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA..
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN TO 75W AND IS ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH INLAND OVER HONDURAS. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 15N TO INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 70W-77W INCLUDING W JAMAICA. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO BANK LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N TO INLAND OVER PANAMA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN THE TRADE WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK. THE WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH THU AS THE W ATLC RIDGE WEAKENS
8:05AM
Weather Forecast for Bonaire and Curaçao valid until Monday morning 06:00 l.t., May 14, 2012. Issued: Sunday May 13, 2012. 06:00 l.t. (10:00 UTC).
Weather:
Today through Monday morning: Partly cloudy; temporarily mostly cloudy, mainly during the morning with chance of a brief local shower. Forecast high: 32°C and forecast low: 25°C. Sunrise: 06:12 and sunset at 18:52
Winds:
Easterly and gentle to fresh; force 3 to 5 ( 12 to 39 km/hr, 7 to 21 knots). A few occasional gusts to strong force 6 ( 40 to 50 km/hr, 22 to 27 knots).
Synopsis:
Lingering moisture will still induce a few local showers over Curaçao and Bonaire e specially during the morning hours. Otherwise, the wind is will help to generate higher wave action mainly across the northern open waters
Sea conditions:
Moderate with wave heights between 1 and 2 meters. The highest waves will be over the northern open waters Special features: N one Outlook until Tuesday morning: Partly cloudy with an isolated shower possible, mainly during the morning hours. Forecaster: Figueroa.
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles Issued: 6:00 AM on Sunday, May 13, 2012
A ridge of high pressure will influence a more stable atmosphere across the Eastern Caribbean over the next few days. However a moderate easterly wind flow will transport ow level cloud patches across the island chain. As a result breezy conditions and a few scattered showers can be expected. Meanwhile a plume of Sahara dust over the area will continue to cause a reduction in visibility during the next few days Sea conditions will be moderate during the next 24 hours However, slightly above normal swells can be expected mainly along the eastern coastline. Small craft operators and sea bathers are advised to continue to exercise caution
May 13, 2012 at 5:00 a.m. LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… Trough across Jamaica. Comment The Trough will move west of the island today.Windy conditions expected especially over southern coastal areas
24-HOUR FORECAST
This morning…Generally fair. Showers over sections of eastern parishes This afternoon…Scattered showers and thunderstorms over central and western parishes and inland areas otherwise Tonight… Partly cloudy Maximum temperatures expected today for Kingston 31 degrees Celsius Montego Bay 31 degrees Celsius
3-DAY FORECAST
(after tomorrow) Mon… Windy along the south coast. Partly cloudy during the morning across eastern parishes Widely scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms mainly across central and western parishes Tue/Wed… Mainly sunny mornings. Widely scattered afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly across inland and hilly areas
Regionally… A High Pressure Ridge north of the Caribbean Cold Front in the Gulf of Mexico
National Hurricane Center Dicussion
CARIBBEAN SEA..
A BROAD UPPER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER EL SALVADOR. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE IS INFLUENCING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH DRY AIR AND MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT W OF 71W. SEVERAL UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM THE NRN LESSER ANTILLES INDICATED THE CLASSIC DOUBLE INVERSION PATTERN ASSOCIATED TO THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER THAT HAS BEEN PROGRESSING WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS IS ALSO LENDING TO THE OVERALL STABILITY OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 71W. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE OBSERVED WITH SOME ISOLATED LOW TOP SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THIS FLOW IS BANKING SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
8:05PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
524 AM AST MON MAY 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST FLOW THAT INCREASES
UNTIL THURSDAY. A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING CLOSE BY THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY UNTIL LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND IT MOVES SLIGHTLY EAST. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK.
AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA BETWEEN 30 AND
40 NORTH LATITUDE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND BUILD OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. FLOW TURNS SOUTHEAST WHEN A TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON
THURSDAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FOLLOWING MONDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS MOVING IN THE EAST NORTHEAST FLOW HAVE
INCREASED OVERNIGHT...BUT ONLY A FEW HAVE ACTUALLY MOVED OVER
LAND. PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS BEEN DECREASING SLIGHTLY OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT MID LEVELS.
NEVERTHELESS...GOOD SOLAR HEATING...AND A COOL POOL THAT
PERSISTS THROUGH TODAY AT 500 MB WILL LIMIT AN EROSION OF
INSTABILITY THAT IS FORECAST BY THE GFS THIS WEEK AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL FUEL STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
PUERTO RICO INTERIOR TODAY. THESE WILL INITIATE IN SOUTH WEST
PUERTO RICO AND LIKELY CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN
SOME AREAS OF THE INTERIOR AND POSSIBLY SOME FLASH FLOODING OF
RIVERS. THE SITUATION WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED AND THE COOL POOL WARMS CONSIDERABLY
DURING THE WEEK. CONVECTION WILL THEN DEPEND MORE ON CONVERGENCE
AND SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD WITH PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVING
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. AN INCREASE IN THE UPPER LEVEL JET WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY MAY HELP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...BUT FORECAST
DIVERGENCE BECOMES MORE ERRATIC AFTER THAT AND CANNOT BE RELIED
UPON TO FORECAST STORM STRENGTH THEREAFTER.
&&
.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO LOW CIGS AND VCSH/VCTS AT TJMZ AND LIKELY MVFR IN AND AROUND
TJPS FROM 14/17 TO 14/21Z. LATEST SOUNDING AND MODELS INDICATE
LLVL WINDS TO BE MAINLY EASTERLY AT 5 TO 15 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE
WEEK...BUT 7 FOOT SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLIGHT BIAS TO THE HIGH SIDE. DUE TO THE
TROUGH PASSAGE EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER WATER TODAY AND THIS
EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 87 77 / 20 20 20 20
STT 86 76 87 77 / 20 20 10 20
National Hurricane Center Discussion
THE CARIBBEAN SEA..
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 21N59W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 17N64W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.. TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N70W. A SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ORIGINATES IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N...AND BEYOND...INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 60W AND 72W...FROM HISPANIOLA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 70W. THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPILLS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.. AS IT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 80W/81W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FROM 10N TO 16N. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 8N78W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 8N82W IN PANAMA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA FROM PANAMA TO SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST.. MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 12 FEET... ROUGHLY TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 65W AND 82W...FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS
8:05AM
Date: MONDAY 14TH MAY 2012 Time: 6:00 AM
General Situation:
RELATIVELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAIL.. 24hr Forecast: CLOUDY WITH SOME SUNNY BREAKS TODAY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT...AND OVER INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON
Outlook:
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IS FOR SOME CLOUDY SPELLS WITH A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
PUBLIC FORECAST FOR THE BAHAMAS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT MONDAY 14TH MAY 2012
GENERAL SITUATION:
A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO CREATE UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE BAHAMAS WEATHER: PTLY CLOUDY WITH FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, FAIR AND MILD TONIGHT
ADVISORY:
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD BE ALERT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH SEAS IN TSTMS WINDS:E/SE 10/15 KNOTS SEAS:2/4 FEET OVER THE OCEAN DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURE 85°F 30°C OVERNITE LOW TEMPERATURE 74°F 24°C SUNRISE: 6:26 AM MOONRISE: 2:58 AM LOW TIDE 9:58 AM SUNSET : 7:47 PM MOONSET: 2:38 PM HIGH TIDE 4:13 PM
EXTENDED WEATHER FORECAST:
EXPECT CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY
Lesser Antilles
Validity: 1000Z MONDAY 14th to 1000Z TUESDAY 15th MAY 2012
Synopsis:
The ridge of high pressure is the dominant feature. Wx: TODAY AND
TONIGHT:
Over the Southern Windwards, partly cloudy hazy and breezy with some scattered showers. Elsewhere, fair to partly cloudy, hazy and breezy with a few brief isolated showers.
Winds:
E - ENE at 15 to 40 km/h
Seas:
Moderate in open water swells 2.0 - 2.5 metres. Small craft operators and sea bathers should exercise some caution. The small craft warning is discontinued.
Meteorologist: Brian Murray
May 14, 2012 at 5:00 a.m. LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… A Trough is west Jamaica. Comment The Trough should remain over the western Caribbean for the next three days
24-HOUR FORECAST
This morning…Partly cloudy This afternoon…Scattered showers and thunderstorms over hilly and some inland areas across the island Tonight… becoming fair Maximum temperatures expected today for Kingston 32 degrees Celsius Montego Bay 32 degrees Celsius
3-DAY FORECAST
(starting tomorrow) Tue… Partly cloudy during the morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms over hilly areas during the afternoon Wed… Mainly sunny morning. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms over hilly and inland areas during the afternoon.. Thur… Partly cloudy during the morning. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms over hilly and inland areas during the afternoon..
Regionally…
A High Pressure Ridge north of the area is generating brisk winds across portions of the Caribbean
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
222 PM AST MON MAY 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE
HISPANIOLA...WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BECOMES THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...A
MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY. ASSOCIATED CAP IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO DELAY AFTERNOON SHOWERS...BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPRESS IT. AS A RESULT... A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS
OR SO WITH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED
BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. AT LOW LEVELS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ESTABLISHES OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF THE ISLANDS.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT MOST TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA IN AND AROUND TJMZ THROUGH ABOUT
14/22Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO
15 MPH EXCEPT FOR SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE
WEEK...BUT 7 FOOT SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 77 87 / 20 20 20 30
STT 76 87 77 87 / 30 10 20 20
&&
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
501 AM AST TUE MAY 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS PASSED THE
AREA AND MOVED INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
INCREASE OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN BUILDING OVER THE AREA AND
WILL BECOME CENTERED NEAR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE INCREASES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO DROP OFF SUNDAY AND
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED IN THE AREA...MAINLY OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND AROUND THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS. WINDS HAVE
CONTINUED TO BE FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST. CURRENT GFS MODEL SHOWS
LIFTED INDEX CONTINUES TO INCREASE...BUT IS STILL RUNNING A BIT
TOO HIGH CONSIDERING THE LAST SEVERAL SOUNDING VALUES OF -8.2 AND
-5.8. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE LAST DAY OF COOL MID LEVELS...AS
WARMER AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. HENCE WITH MOISTURE
REMAINING RELATIVELY STEADY AND STABILITY NOT YET INCREASING
SIGNIFICANTLY...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO AND CENTERED OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL
AND THE ANASCO RIVER VALLEY...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD NOT BE AS
VIGOROUS TODAY AS YESTERDAY OR THE DAY BEFORE. NEVERTHELESS SOME
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY. ON
WEDNESDAY MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE...BUT THE LIFTED INDEX ALSO
CONTINUES TO INCREASE...AND FLOW AT UPPER LEVELS BECOMES STRONGER
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS MOISTURE AND FLOW WILL HELP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERCOME THE LESS FAVORABLE STABILITY SOMEWHAT WITH
THE HELP OF SEA BREEZES AND CONVERGENCE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND REACH AN APEX ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WHEN MOISTURE REACHES A MAXIMUM. MODELS SHOW RAPIDLY DECREASING
MOISTURE AFTER SATURDAY AS SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES AND STABILITY
INDICES REMAIN HIGHER. SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL SEE A FEW
SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD...ALSO INCREASING THROUGH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AND TAPERING OFF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO LOW CIGS AND VCSH/VCTS AT TJMZ AND LIKELY MVFR IN AND AROUND
TJPS FROM 15/17 TO 15/21Z. LATEST SOUNDING AND MODELS INDICATE
LLVL WINDS TO BE STILL MAINLY EASTERLY AT 5 TO 15 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT THIS WEEK PARTLY
IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WINDS AT 850 MB. FLOW REMAINS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST ONCE IT TURNS ON WEDNESDAY. SEAS IN A FEW AREAS MAY REACH 7 FEET
LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 86 77 / 10 20 30 30
STT 86 76 86 78 / 10 20 20 40
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
329 PM AST TUE MAY 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS...BUILDING...ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND WILL TRY TO PRODUCE A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...EXPECT AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE...TO RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS A
LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...LOCAL EFFECTS AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL STILL COMBINE
EACH DAY...TO PRODUCE AREAS OF CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS.
&&
.AVIATION...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF
THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PR THROUGH 15/22Z. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MVFR CONDS IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJPS. IN ADDITION...
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LLVL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10 KTS...
SHIFTING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6
FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
OFF SHORE WATERS TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 77 86 77 / 10 20 40 30
STT 86 76 86 78 / 10 20 20 40
National Hurricane Center Discussion
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W
TO INCLUDE W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR
CLOUDS AND CONVECTION HAS ADVECTED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S
OF 13N E OF 63W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN. A RELATIVELY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA PRODUCING 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER EL SALVADOR NEAR
13N89W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND LITTLE CHANGE
ELSEWHERE.
2:05PM
Lesser Antilles Forecast
Validity: 2200Z TUESDAY 15th to 2200Z WEDNESDAY 16th MAY 2012
Synopsis: The ridge of high pressure is the dominant feature.
Wx: TONIGHT: Over the southern Windwards: Partly cloudy and hazy with brief isolated showers. Elsewhere mainly fair.
TOMORROW: Over the southern Windwards: Partly cloudy to cloudy with a few scattered showers elsewhere fair to partly cloudy with brief showers.
Winds: E - ENE at 15 to 35 km/h
Seas: Moderate in open water swells 2.0 - 2.5 metres.
Small craft operators and sea bathers should exercise some caution.
Meteorologist: Rosalind Blenman
May 15, 2012 at 4:00 p.m.
LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… High Pressure Ridge over Jamaica.
Comment
Comment… The High Pressure Ridge keeps sunny and hazy conditions over the island for the next few days as the winds slowly decrease over southern waters.
24-HOUR FORECAST
Tonight…. Mainly fair.
Tomorrow…Mainly sunny and windy day. Few showers likely in the afternoon in St. James.
Minimum temperatures expected tonight for:
Kingston 24 degrees Celsius
Montego Bay 24 degrees Celsius
3-DAY FORECAST
(after tomorrow)
Thu/Fri…Mainly sunny morning. Afternoon showers over St. James and Hanover.
Sat… Partly cloudy and windy.
Regionally…A Trough is over the western Caribbean and another is east of Jamaica. A Stationary Front rests over the central Gulf of Mexico.
rar
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
554 AM AST WED MAY 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...PARTICULARLY THE REGIONAL WATERS AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. DAYTIME HEATING...AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LOCAL
EFFECTS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS...LOCAL EFFECTS AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ONCE AGAIN CAUSE
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS TIME UNDER AN EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW...THE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
UNDER ESTIMATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND OVERALL
INSTABILITY...HOWEVER...THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS VALID AT 16/12Z AND
16/18Z STILL INDICATE ENOUGH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...AND INTERESTINGLY THE FORECAST SOUNDING FOR 16/12Z IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE ACTUAL SOUNDING FROM YESTERDAY 15/12Z. SINCE
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE 0-6 KM AVERAGE WIND MAKING
IT MORE EAST SOUTHEAST THAN YESTERDAY...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO AND WITH THE SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE TO THE WEST NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...IN THE LONG TERM...COMPUTER MODELS ARE
DRYING THINGS UP CONSIDERABLY. STARTING ON SUNDAY...THE MODELS
START A DRYING TREND THAT TAKE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM 1.85
INCHES ON SUNDAY TO 1.14 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AND A STRONG CAP IN THE LOWER LEVELS. IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY...WE
WOULD HAVE DRY AND WARM DAYS AHEAD OF US. FOR THAT REASON...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE BUMPED UP A FEW DEGREES REACHING THE LOW 90S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO FROM SUNDAY TO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND SOMEWHAT
OVER PR AND THE USVI. SCT SHWRS WILL CONTINUE OVER ERN PR BUT TAF
SITES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE VFR EXCEPT TNCM AND TKPK WHERE PERIODS
OF MVFR WILL OCCUR. MVFR WILL ALSO BE LIKELY AT TJBQ AND TJMZ AT
TIMES AFT 16/17Z. EXPECT TSTMS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS AFT 16/17Z
INTERIOR PR SPREADING NW. LLVL WINDS ARE EASTERLY AND EXPECTED TO
BECOME ESE-SE 10-20 KT.
&&
.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CAUSING MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE UP TO
7 FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS...THEREFORE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT TODAY AT 9 AM UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 86 77 / 30 30 30 20
STT 86 78 87 78 / 20 30 30 30
National Hurricane Center Discussion
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT
IS TO THE WEST OF 70W. THIS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS COURTESY
OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS-BEYOND WESTERN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA
STRAITS RIDGE. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 81W...MOSTLY IN THE WATERS
OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM
HONDURAS TO NICARAGUA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
23N59W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 16N61W JUST AT THE EDGE OF
THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE WATERS THAT
ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE WEST OF 58W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 15N62W 19N64W IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 60W AND THE 19N64W 15N62W LINE. THE MONSOON
TROUGH IS ALONG 11N74W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...TO 9N80W...BEYOND
9N84W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...
FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
REACHING 9 FEET...ROUGHLY TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST
65W...FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
8:05AM
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 6:00 AM on Wednesday, May 16, 2012
A ridge of high pressure will continue to be the dominant feature across most of the Eastern Caribbean. However, a few cloudy spell with some scattered showers can be expected over the central to northern portion of the chain, as low level pockets of moisture move across the area today.
Sea conditions will remain moderate during the next few days. Slightly above normal swells can be expected mainly along the eastern coastline. Small craft operators and sea bathers are advised to continue to exercise caution.
May 16, 2012 at 5:00 a.m.
LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… High Pressure Ridge across the central Caribbean, including Jamaica.
Comment
The Ridge is expected to weaken on Thursday as a Trough develops over
the western Caribbean.
24-HOUR FORECAST
This morning…Mainly sunny.
This afternoon… Expect isolated showers and thunderstorms over inland and hilly areas. Furthermore, it will be windy along the south coast.
Tonight… Mainly fair.
Maximum temperatures expected today for:
Kingston 32 degrees Celsius
Montego Bay 32 degrees Celsius
3-DAY FORECAST
(starting tomorrow)
Thurs… Partly cloudy during the morning across eastern parishes. Widely scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms central and western parishes..
Fri… Partly cloudy during the morning across eastern parishes. Widely scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Sat… Isolated morning showers. Mostly cloudy during the afternoon with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Regionally… There is a dissipating Stationary Front across the Gulf of Mexico.
rlb
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
318 PM AST WED MAY 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ESTABLISH
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
ELONGATED RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. AT LOW LEVELS...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS PROVIDING A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SATELITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED
BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 2 INCH...
UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA. A MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AREA OF THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. MODELS SHOW DEEPER
MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAKING AT NEARLY TWO INCHES
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
AS DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL AS THE UPPER
RIDGE PROVIDES ENOUGH VENTILATION. LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW
SHALLOW TO MODERATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTH HALF OF
PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EAST/SOUTHEAST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE SUNDAY/EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS DRIER AIR AND STRONGER MID/UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION.
National Hurricane Center Discussion
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER MUCH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
NRN CENTRAL AMERICA ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE ERN
GULF OF MEXICO WHICH EXTENDS INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
OVERCAST SKIES COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN.
ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA ACROSS ERN
CUBA AND INTO THE W ATLC WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
DOWN THE LESSER ANTILLES. DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN
THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...WHICH IS HELPING MAINTAIN FAIR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN. A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES
FROM THE E ATLC ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND THE E
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. ELY TRADEWIND FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE
AREA REACHING 15-20 KTS.
8:05PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
609 AM AST THU MAY 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS ELONGATED RIDGE ALOFT
WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS BRINGING A
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AFFECTED THE LOCAL
AREA OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE LOCAL WATERS AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. SATELLITE BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER INDICATED
VALUES OF OVER 2.0 INCHES JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND MODELS
SHOW AN INCREASE IN PW FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. DUE TO THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE AFFECTED PUERTO RICO THE PAST FEW
DAYS...FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IS LIKELY WITH
THE SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRYING TREND FOR NEXT WEEK BUT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE IT HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK TO MID WEEK. EVEN THOUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK IT WILL BE DRIER...THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES WITH BRIEF MVFR EXCEPTIONS DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL BETWEEN 17/17Z AND 17/22Z. LLVL
WINDS SE 10 TO 20 KT. WINDS NW 35-60 KT BTWN 35-50 KFT.
&&
.MARINE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT
FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS ARE PICKING UP QUITE A BIT
SO MOST OF THE REMAINING MARINE ZONES HAVE PRECAUTIONARY
STATEMENTS FOR WINDS BETWEEN 18 AND 21 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 87 77 / 50 50 40 40
STT 86 77 88 78 / 50 40 40 40
These have been some pretty ferocious t'storms and loads of rain hitting us the last 24 hours or so. The other half had to get up and bail the boat out at "Oh-something-ridiculous" o'clock this a.m.
Hoping for good weather on Sunday for the fishing tournament! We need a laugh once in a while!
Lin
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
312 PM AST THU MAY 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FORECAST AREA LIES BETWEEN
AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST OVER
THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE RIDGE ALOFT IS PROVIDING AN INFLOW OF
SHORT-WAVE ENERGY AND GOOD VENTILATION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC IS BRINGING A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY HAVE INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS AND PARTS OF PUERTO RICO. MOST OF
THE CELLS ARE MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE ISLANDS DUE TO THE
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST FLOW. HOWEVER...A COUPLE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PUERTO
RICO THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE AND RADAR ESTIMATES SUGGEST RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1.5-3.0" IN PARTS OF AGUADILLA...MOCA AND SAN
SEBASTIAN SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES HAVE BEEN PREVAILED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SINCE YESTERDAY AS SEEN IN THE MIMIC/CIMMS PWAT
ANALYSIS. MODELS SHOW THAT THE PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
FAVOR THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT COMBINED WITH GOOD VENTILATION
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE SUNDAY/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DRIER AIR AND STRONGER
MID TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ISLANDS DURG THE REST OF THE AFTN. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR AND LCL
MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA...
ESPECIALLY OVR THE NORTH CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OR PR UNTIL 17/22Z. SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA ALSO PSBL EN ROUTE BTW ERN
PR AND THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS HOWEVER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
CIRCUMNAVIGABLE AND NOT WIDESPREAD. GENERAL WIND FLOW FM SE BTW
15-20 KTS BLO 15K FT.
&&
.MARINE...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY AT 15 TO 21
KNOTS THROUGH AT LEAST THE SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE FROM
4 TO 6 FEET ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS...EXCEPT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WHERE SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED. AS A RESULT...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATERS EVERY DAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 86 77 88 / 50 60 40 40
STT 77 86 78 87 / 40 40 40 40
Hey Virginislands. Yes you need some better weather for your fishing tournament...its been quite windy due to the high pressure over the region. The high pressure is expected to weaken this weekend, so hopefully you'll have improved weather conditions for the tournament.
National Hurricane Center Discussion
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
HONDURAS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 84W-87W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE THE
NW CARIBBEAN... MOST OF CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS N OF 16N BETWEEN 63W-69W. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. A RELATIVELY
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
PRODUCING 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER EL SALVADOR NEAR 13N89W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE
LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS AND LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.
2:05PM
GENERAL WEATHER FORECAST
Date:
THURSDAY 17TH MAY 2012
Time:
12:00 PM
General Situation:
MOIST AND UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAIL...
24hr Forecast:
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE SEA, ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE SOUTH.
Winds:
NORTH - NORTHEAST 5 - 15 KNOTS....
Sea State:
CHOPPY.
Outlook:
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO MIDDAY ON SATURDAY IS FOR SOME CLOUDY SPELLS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING MAINLY SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS OF THE COUNTRY.
Temperatures:
Highs (today)
Lows (tonight)
Coast
29° C
84° F
Coast
24o C
75o F
Inland
31 C
88° F
Inland
22o C
72° F
Hills
24° C
75° F
Hills
20o C
68o F
Tides:
High:
-----
Low:
2:35 PM
High:
8:41 PM
Low:
1:59 AM (FRI.)
Sunset :
6:19 PM
Moonset:
3:48 PM
Sun rise :
5:20 AM (FRI.)
Moonrise :
3:35 AM (FRI.)
Forecaster:
R. Gordon
Lesser Antilles Forecast
Validity: 1600Z THURSDAY 17th TO 1000Z FRIDAY 18th MAY 2012
Synopsis: Weak unstable conditions are affecting the region.
Wx: THIS AFTERNOON & TONIGHT:
LEEWARDS AND N.WINDWARDS: Partly cloudy to cloudy with some scattered showers and possible thunderstorms. Elsewhere:Fair to partly cloudy with a few scattered showers.
Winds: ENE-ESE at 15 to 35km/h
Seas: Moderate in open water swells 2.0 - 2.5 metres.
Small craft operators and sea bathers should exercise some caution.
Meteorologist: Sabu Best
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOIST CONDITIONS COVER MUCH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...NRN
CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH MOIST
SWLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
ERN BAHAMAS TO NICARAGUA ALONG WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST FROM 23N87W TO 16N87W. STRONG
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER SRN GUATEMALA....EL
SALVADOR...SRN HONDURAS AND PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA...COSTA
RICA...AND PANAMA. WEAKER ACTIVITY IS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS AS WELL AS OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. OVERCAST SKIES AND
POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS. DRY AIR ALOFT
COVERS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. TRADEWIND
FLOW OF 15-20 KTS IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE UPPER
TROUGH E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE ISLANDS ALSO ENHANCED BY A
TROPICAL WAVE. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE ISLANDS.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THIS AREA AND SPREAD WWD
AS THE WAVE MOVES W.
8:05PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
623 AM AST FRI MAY 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS ALSO AN UPPER TROUGH TO
THE EAST OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...BRINGING ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED
OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
UNDER A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THESE SHOWERS THAT WERE AFFECTING
PUERTO RICO HAVE DIMINISHED AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN.
SATELLITE BLENDED TPW IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE BAND OF DEEPEST
MOISTURE HAS BEEN MOVING WEST AND NOW IS OVER PUERTO RICO AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST.
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE COMBINES WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN
PUERTO RICO WHERE THE MORE NUMEROUS AND HEAVIEST SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
EASTERN AND NORTHERN PUERTO RICO. THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL
ALSO OBSERVE SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY.
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EXPECT THIS SAME PATTERN OF SCATTERED
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...THEN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...UNTIL MONDAY. THEREAFTER...THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE A BIT AND MOISTURE WILL
START TO DECREASE...LIMITING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE LOCAL TAF SITES FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BRIEF MOMENTS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY ACROSS TJBQ SITE DUE TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 18/17Z...VCTS IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS
TJMZ AT THAT TIME AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 10 KNOTS AND GUSTY NEAR SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AST
FOR THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS FOR SEAS UP TO 7 FEET. WINDS WILL BE
UP TO 21 KNOTS AND WILL KEEP SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ACROSS MOST THE
LOCAL WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 76 87 77 / 50 50 40 20
STT 86 78 87 78 / 40 40 40 20
National Hurricane Center Discussion
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
THIS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS COURTESY OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA-BEYOND CUBA RIDGE. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 70W. A MIDDLE LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...COMBINED WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT REACHES WESTERN NICARAGUA...MAY BE
HELPING THE STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT NOW IS MOSTLY
OFFSHORE...ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO EL SALVADOR. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 18N59W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 13N59W...TOWARD
THE COAST OF NORTHERN GUYANA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 58W
AND 60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO LAND BETWEEN 57W AND 59W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATERS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH
OF 10N TO WEST OF 50W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N FROM 74W
IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 81W IN PANAMA. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS...COVERS COLOMBIA AND THE
PANAMA COASTAL WATERS FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 74W AND 84W. THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...
FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
REACHING 8 FEET TO THE TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 77W.
8:05AM
May 18, 2012 at 5:00 a.m.
LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… High Pressure Ridge across the central Caribbean, including Jamaica.
Comment
The Ridge is expected to weaken on Thursday as a Trough develops over
the western Caribbean.
24-HOUR FORECAST
This morning… Partly cloudy.
This afternoon…Isolated showers and thunderstorms over western parishes.
Windy and partly cloudy over southern coastal areas.
Tonight… Mainly fair.
Maximum temperatures expected today for:
Kingston 32 degrees Celsius
Montego Bay 32 degrees Celsius
3-DAY FORECAST
(starting tomorrow)
Sat/Sun… Partly cloudy morning over northeastern parishes. Mostly cloudy afternoon with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over western parishes. Windy over southern coastal areas.
Mon… Mostly cloudy over the island with scattered afternoon showers over western parishes. Windy over southern coastal areas.
Regionally… Trough over the western Caribbean as a High Pressure Ridge
is over the central Caribbean.
rar
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 12:00 PM on Friday, May 18, 2012
A ridge of high pressure will re-establish itself across the area. Low level clouds moving with a moderate trade wind flow will result in occasional cloudiness and widely scattered showers across the southern portion of the island chain. Meanwhile, weak instability will generate cloudiness and showers over the northern islands.
A moderate trade wind flow will continue to maintain above normal sea conditions through early next week. Swells are anticipated to peak near 8.0 feet. Small craft operators and sea bathers, particularly along the eastern coastline, are advised to continue to exercise caution.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
319 PM AST FRI MAY 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...BROAD AND ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND SPREAD FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
LEEWARDS THROUGH SUNDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER LONG WAVE
TROUGH WITH AXIS NOW JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL SHIFT
FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A PREVAILING NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WITH AN INCREASING
SUBSIDENT PATTERN IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS...WILL BUILD FURTHER SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
AND THEREBY INDUCE MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THE
PREVAILING SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL HOWEVER BECOME MORE
EASTERLY BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE ATLANTIC
HIGH SINKS SOUTHWARDS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...THE MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS. FAIRLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS WILL QUICKLY STREAM
ACROSS THE ISLANDS...SO NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...AREA OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL REMAIN
LIKELY ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...FOLLOWED BY LOCALLY
INDUCED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
OVERALL MODELS SUGGEST A GRADUAL DECREASE IN PWAT VALUES ACROSS THE
REGION AS TRADE WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND INCREASE BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MODELS SUGGEST
INCREASE IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WITH MODERATE CAP NEAR 700
MILLIBARS BY SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL DRYING
IS STILL EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
WITH LESSER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS EXCEPT FOR
LOCALLY AND DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION EACH DAY IN ISOLATED
AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 18/23Z. THIS MAY RESULT IN MVFR/IFR
CONDS IN AND AROUND TJBQ...TJSJ...TISX AND TNCM. IN ADDITION...MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION ARE LIKELY ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDS WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LLVL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KTS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 86 77 87 / 30 30 20 30
STT 77 87 78 88 / 30 30 20 40
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
949 PM AST FRI MAY 18 2012
.UPDATE...HAD AN ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA...AS BANDS OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AFFECTED AREAS
FROM SAN JUAN THROUGH GUAYNABO AND BAYAMON. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF
FLOODING...INCLUDING THE RIO PIEDRAS AND SEVERAL SECTIONS OF
GUAYNABO. EXPECT VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. INHERITED SHORT TERM GRIDS AND ZFP HAD A
PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON EXPECTED CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT SENT A
QUICK UPDATE TO BOTH TO ALTER THE WEATHER...SKY COVER...POPS AND
WINDS IN SEVERAL ZONES. FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...MADE A COUPLE OF
SEMANTIC ALTERATIONS TO THE PREVIOUS CWF...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.
SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
430 AM AST SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...BROAD AND ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND SPREAD FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN LEEWARDS THROUGH LATER TODAY. STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS...WILL BUILD FURTHER SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
AND THEREBY INDUCE MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MOST OF THE SHOWERS DISSIPATED BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH
A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ON SHORE AND AFFECTING THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES
ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS JUST EAST OF PUERTO RICO. THIS AREA OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF AND SOUTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH MID MORNING.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO YESTERDAY ARE EXPECTED TODAY...AS DIURNAL
HEATING AND THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
ENHANCED BY THE CROSS VENTILATION AT MID TO UPPER LEVELS.
OVERALL MODELS SUGGEST A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TRADE WINDS BECOME MORE
EASTERLY AND INCREASE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES WITH BRIEF VCSH AND MVFR EXCEPTIONS
DURING THE PERIOD. LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 19/17Z AND
19/22Z. LLVL WINDS OVERNIGHT ARE GENERALLY E TO SE AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...FRESH TO MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE A CHOP
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THIS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MID WEEK. THEREFORE MARINERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 77 87 77 / 50 40 30 20
STT 87 78 88 79 / 40 30 30 40
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN ANCHORED
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 71W. A 1009
MB LOW IS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AT 19/0900 UTC NEAR 17N87W
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N ALONG 19N88W INTO THE E GULF
OF MEXICO OVER THE E TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE TROUGH AND
W OF A LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 21N77W TO THE NE NICARAGUA NEAR
13N84W. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE
BASIN USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN
N OF 15N E OF 71W TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE TRADE WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA AND DISSIPATE TODAY.
8:05AM
PUBLIC FORECAST FOR THE BAHAMAS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, SATURDAY 19TH MAY 2012
GENERAL SITUATION: THE COMBINATION OF A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SE BAHAMAS AND AN AREA OF TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO CREATE UNSETTLED WEATHER.
WEATHER: PTLY CLOUDY IN THE NW TO CLOUDY TO OVERCAST IN THE CNTRL AND SE BAHAMAS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD BE ALERT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH SEAS IN TSTMS
WINDS: VRB 10KTS
SEAS: 1/3FT
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURE 86°F 30°C
OVERNITE LOW TEMPERATURE 75°F 24°C
SUNRISE: 6:23 AM MOONRISE: 6:01 AM LOW TIDE 1:34 PM
SUNSET : 7:50 PM MOONSET: 6:55 PM HIGH TIDE 7:55PM
EXTENDED WEATHER FORECAST: IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY EARLY MONDAY
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
WEATHER: PTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY WITH FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WINDS: VRB 10KNOTS
SEAS: 1/3FT
FORECAST FOR MONDAY
WEATHER: PTLY SUNNY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WIND VRB 10:KNOTS
SEAS: 1/3FT
FCSTR. N. ARMSTRONG
Weather Forecast for Bonaire and Curaçao valid until Sunday midday 12:00 l.t., May 20, 2012.
Issued: Saturday May 19, 2012. 11:00 l.t. (15:00 UTC).
Weather:
Today and Sunday: Generally partly cloudy.
Forecast high: 32°C and forecast low: 26°C.
Sunrise: 06:10 and sunset at 18:54.
Winds: Easterly and moderate to fresh; force 4 to 5 ( 20 to 39 km/hr, 12 to 21 knots). Gusting occasionally to strong; force 6 ( 40 to 50 km/hr, 22 to 27 knots).
Synopsis: No significant change is expected in the current weather pattern and a fair weather sky with an overall dry weather condition will prevail across the local islands. Otherwise, the rather strong wind of the last days results in a somewhat higher wave action over the exposed waters.
Sea conditions: Moderate with waves between 1 and 2 meters. Waves could become somewhat higher over the northern open waters and passages between islands.
Special features: None.
Outlook until Monday midday: Partly cloudy with no significant precipitation.
Forecaster: Luciano
The next weather forecast will be issued on Saturday at 17:00 l.t. (21:00 UTC).
Lesser Antilles Forecast
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 12:00 PM on Saturday, May 19, 2012
The Atlantic high pressure system will continue to generate a moderate trade wind flow across the area. Low level clouds moving with this wind flow will result in occasionally cloudy skies and scattered showers over the islands.
A moderate trade wind flow will continue to maintain above normal sea conditions through Wednesday. Swells are anticipated to peak near 8.0 feet. Small craft operators and sea bathers, particularly along the eastern coastline, are advised to continue to exercise caution.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
243 PM AST SAT MAY 19 2012
.DISCUSSION...MIMIC-TPW WATER VAPOR IMAGES SUGGEST DRYING TREND AFTER
ANOTHER MINI SURGE COMING TONIGHT/SUNDAY FROM NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES.
MODELS ALSO SHOW DRYING NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GFS SHOWS 1.5 INCHES OF PW
OVER PR/USVI FOR MON/TUE AND LESS THEREAFTER. GFS TYPICALLY OVERPLAYS
THE DRYING SO WILL KEEP POPS AND QPF RATHER RESPECTABLE FOR THE NORTH
AND WEST INTERIOR DURING AFTERNOON WHEN MID-DAY HEATING HAS MORE THAN
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE THUNDER.
GFS MOS INDICATES LEAST RAINY DAY TO BE TUE AND THAT LOOKS REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 19/22Z. THIS MAY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDS IN AND AROUND TJBQ AND POSSIBLY
TJSJ. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LLVL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AND MAINTAIN CONDITIONS CLOSE TO THOSE CURRENTLY SEEN. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE 1035 MB AT 30N/40W TO 35N/40W TO WEAKEN TOWARDS END OF
WEEK BUT LOCATION WILL NOT CHANGE A LOT...MAINTAINING EAST-SOUTHEAST
FLOW.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 77 87 / 40 30 20 30
STT 77 87 78 89 / 30 30 40 40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
243 PM AST SAT MAY 19 2012
.DISCUSSION...MIMIC-TPW WATER VAPOR IMAGES SUGGEST DRYING TREND AFTER
ANOTHER MINI SURGE COMING TONIGHT/SUNDAY FROM NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES.
MODELS ALSO SHOW DRYING NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GFS SHOWS 1.5 INCHES OF PW
OVER PR/USVI FOR MON/TUE AND LESS THEREAFTER. GFS TYPICALLY OVERPLAYS
THE DRYING SO WILL KEEP POPS AND QPF RATHER RESPECTABLE FOR THE NORTH
AND WEST INTERIOR DURING AFTERNOON WHEN MID-DAY HEATING HAS MORE THAN
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE THUNDER.
GFS MOS INDICATES LEAST RAINY DAY TO BE TUE AND THAT LOOKS REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 19/22Z. THIS MAY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDS IN AND AROUND TJBQ AND POSSIBLY
TJSJ. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LLVL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AND MAINTAIN CONDITIONS CLOSE TO THOSE CURRENTLY SEEN. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE 1035 MB AT 30N/40W TO 35N/40W TO WEAKEN TOWARDS END OF
WEEK BUT LOCATION WILL NOT CHANGE A LOT...MAINTAINING EAST-SOUTHEAST
FLOW.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 77 87 / 40 30 20 30
STT 77 87 78 89 / 30 30 40 40
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