nigel20's WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: nigel20, 3:47 PM GMT on March 26, 2012 | +6 |
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Electrical Engineering student that is interested in weather, especially tropical weather.
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APRSWXNET Kingston JM
Kingston,
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| Elevation: | 731 ft |
| Temperature: | 83.0 °F |
| Dew Point: | 73.0 °F |
| Humidity: | 71% |
| Wind: | 6.0 mph from the SSW |
| Wind Gust: | 0.0 mph |
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Updated: 12:57 PM EST on February 06, 2013
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Tropical Weather Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA
GIVING THE SW CARIBBEAN SW FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO DIPS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN GIVING THE AREA NW
FLOW ALOFT WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER NEAR ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA
NEAR 10N75W THROUGH A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 11N80W TO ACROSS COSTA
RICA NEAR 11N83W ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N BETWEEN W OF 80W AND WITHIN 60
NM ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N
OF 18N BETWEEN 75W-80W. THE E CARIBBEAN IS COVERED IN THE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO FRESH SE TRADE WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH SUN.
HISPANIOLA...
AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS JUST N OF THE ISLAND EXTENDING NW OVER THE
W ATLC. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES MOISTURE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE ISLAND SO SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND. THE UPPER RIDGE N OF
THE ISLAND IS MOVING E AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK
W. THIS COULD BRING RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO
HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
NHC
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 6:00 AM on Wednesday, May 22, 2013
Moisture and instability associated with a westward moving tropical wave is generating cloudiness, showers and isolated thunderstorms across the island chain. This activity is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.
Persons in areas prone to flash flooding, landslides and falling rocks are advised to exercise caution.
Moderate sea conditions are expected through the next 24 hours with swells peaking near 8.0 feet.
Weather Forecast for Bonaire and Curacao valid until Thursday morning 06:00 l.t., May 23, 2013.
Issued: Wednesday May 22, 2013, 06:00 l.t. (10:00 UTC).
Weather:
Today through tonight: Partly cloudy, mainly during the morning hours mostly cloudy with a chance of a few local showers.
Forecast high will be 31ºC and the low will be 25ºC.
Sunrise will occur at 06:10 and sunset at 18:54.
Winds:
Today through tonight: Easterly and gentle to moderate; force 3 to 4 (12 to 30 km/hr, 7 to 17 knots). Mainly during the day, occasionally fresh to strong in gusts; force 5 to 6 (31 to 50 km/hr, 17 to 27 knots).
Synopsis: A tropical wave continues to move across the Caribbean today and cloudiness related to this wave also spreads over the local area producing showers at times over parts of the islands.
Sea conditions: Moderate with seas between 1 and locally 2 meters (3 to 7
feet).
Special features: None.
Outlook until Friday evening: Generally partly cloudy with a possible morning shower activity.
Forecaster: H. M. Lauffer.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
516 AM AST THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A BRANCH OF THE SUB TROPICAL JET SPLITS OFF
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SENDS A RIPPLED FLOW OVER THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. ALSO ON SATURDAY A LOW MOVES OFFSHORE FROM
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND KEEPS FLOW CYCLONIC OVER THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW FORMS EAST OF GEORGIA IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY AND DEEPENS CAUSING FLOW TO BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE AREA.
AT MID LEVELS...LIGHT BUT MOSTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS NOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND CARRIES AMPLE MOISTURE. FLOW BECOMES LIGHT
AND VARIABLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND THEN GAINS COPIOUS MOISTURE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL WESTERN ATLANTIC
FADES INTO A STRONGER HIGH IN THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY
SATURDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE MAINTAINS A PRESENCE IN THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN. THE RESULTING GRADIENT MAINTAINS MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED FROM
THE EAST. TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BEGINNING
ON MONDAY...DRIFTS NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE WEEK AND PULLS EVEN
MORE MOISTURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHEAST FLOW. A WEAK LOW
DEVELOPS NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS EARLY NEXT MONTH AND CONNECTS
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TO MAINTAIN THE MOIST FLOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS GRADUALLY FADED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS TO
THE SOUTH...BUT CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
MOISTURE SLIPPING SOUTHWEST AND DRIER AIR COMING FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER SAINT CROIX HAS FALLEN TO
BELOW 1.5 INCHES AND SOUNDERS REVEAL THAT MOISTURE AMOUNTS OVER
SAN JUAN WERE ALSO FALLING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDINESS
FOLLOWING THE MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND CLEARING IS TAKING
PLACE OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THE GFS ALSO
SHOWS DRYING BETWEEN 900 AND 675 MB TILL ABOUT 24/06Z. ALTHOUGH
THIS WILL INITIALLY FAVOR IMPROVED WEATHER...STRONG HEATING FROM
THE SUN FROM NEARLY PERPENDICULAR NOON TIME SOLAR ANGLES WILL
CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ERUPT OVER THE AREA JUST INLAND
FROM THE NORTH COAST OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF PUERTO RICO AND
SHORTLY THEREAFTER OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING IN AREAS ALREADY SATURATED FROM THE PREVIOUS TWO
DAYS OF HEAVY RAINS. ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW A NEARLY SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE FROM 600-300 MB...LIMITED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THERE
MAY BE LESS MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAN WOULD BE EXPECTED FROM THIS PROFILE.
MOISTURE RETURNS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS TIME SUFFICIENT MOISTURE MAY BE PRESENT TO CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING OVER THE WEEKEND AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.
ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR DO OCCUR OVER THE
NEXT WEEK...LOW PRESSURE SETTING UP IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EAST
OF GEORGIA AT UPPER LEVELS WEDNESDAY WILL INDUCE A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THAT WILL MAKE LOW LEVEL FLOW
SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN...TAPPING THE BETTER STREAMS OF MOISTURE OUT OF
THE TROPICS AND GENERATING CONTINUED SCENARIOS FOR HEAVY RAINS
OVER THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCT-BKN SKIES ACROSS THE FLYING AREA ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FCST
PERIOD. AFTER 23/17Z MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ DUE TO SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...VCTS ARE
EXPECTED FOR TJSJ. WINDS MAINLY FROM THE EAST BETWEEN 10-25 KT UP
TO 5 KFT.
&&
.MARINE...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS...SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FEET HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP IN
THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. THESE WILL
SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT BY SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 76 85 76 / 40 40 50 60
STT 87 77 86 78 / 20 40 50 50
Tropical Weather Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA..
NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MODERATELY DRY AIR OVER A NARROW AREA FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO 15N70W. OTHERWISE AT THE SURFACE...THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN HAS BECOME TO DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ON SATELLITE CARIBBEAN HAS BECOME TO DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT HAS MERGED INTO THE SEMI-PERMANENT LOW-LEVEL COLOMBIAN GYRE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN HOWEVER S OF 14N BETWEEN 75W-81W...AND S OF 11N BETWEEN 81W-84W. FARTHER EAST... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN NEAR THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE SW NORTH ATLC GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS EAST OF A LINE FROM SOUTHWESTERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N74W TO THE ABC ISLANDS NEAR 12N68W. E-SE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING MORE NORTHEASTERLY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION.
HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT ARE OVER THE ISLAND WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO ADVECT ACROSS THE ISLAND INCREASING TO THE EAST OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING EAST OF 72W AND THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. OVERALL SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC AND BY SATURDAY SURFACE TROUGHING WILL LIE ACROSS THE ISLAND PROVIDING FOR INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY MONDAY.
NHC
ISSUED AT: 10:13AM Date:Thursday 23rd of May 2013
Meteorologist: Oscar Lovell
FOR THE PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:
TRINIDAD,TOBAGO AND THE REM.OF THE LESSER ANTILLES Sunny at first but gradually becoming cloudy with showers in varying localities and the early afternoon thundershower favouring Western areas gradually becoming settled by nightfall to give a cool night Gusty winds,street and flash flooding may occur in heavy showers and thundershowers
SEAS: Normal to Moderate WAVES: 2.0 to 2.5mIN OPEN WATERS Near 1.0m IN SHLTD AREAS
Temperature Units:Celsius FORECAST MAX TEMP Piarco: 33 Crown Point: 31 Piarco: 33 Crown Point: 31 Tides ISSUED AT: 05:41PM Date:Tuesday 21st of May 2013 Port of Spain HIGH 1:18am 2:14pm LOW 7:40am 7:38pm Port of Spain HIGH 1:18am 2:14pm LOW 7:40am 7:38pm Scarborough HIGH 12:53am 1:40pm LOW 7:20am 7:25
2013-05-23 13:00 WEATHER ACTUAL. HAVANA CITY Plenty of sunshine and heavy weather. Light winds from the North-east direction. 2013-05-23 03:00 WEATHER FORECAST.
NATIONWIDE This Thursday will begin with gorgeous blue skies and lots of sun. Nice weather will continue in the afternoon although some outbreaks of rain are possible in inland regions. The daytime temperature will remain around 34 C (93 F) while overnight it will be between 24-27 C (75-81 F) The sea will be mostly calm throughout the country expected
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 AM AST FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS MOVING
AWAY FROM THE AREA TO THE EAST AT UPPER LEVELS WHILE A STRONGER
LONG WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE U.S.
MAINLAND AND WILL PUSH RIPPLES THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL
TUESDAY IN MOSTLY WESTERLY...CYCLONIC FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CARIBBEAN MID WEEK...BUT LOW PRESSURE BEGINS
FORMING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR FLORIDA AND GEORGIA ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LATER NEXT WEEK.
AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES IN THE NORTHERN
CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEKEND AND MAINTAINS VERY MOIST EAST
SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY NEAR 42 WEST WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA ON
MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY CONTINUED MOIST FLOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED IN THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
SAINT CROIX AND SAINT JOHN WHILE INDIVIDUAL CELLS ARE MOVING
TOWARD THE PUERTO RICO MAINLAND. SMALL SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PASSING
THROUGH EASTERN PUERTO RICO ALL NIGHT. THE MOISTENING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH SOILS ALREADY SATURATED
AND RIVERS RUNNING SOMEWHAT ABOVE BASE FLOW...EXPECT THAT THERE
COULD BE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ONCE THE MAIN SURGE OF MOISTURE
ARRIVES IN PUERTO RICO...THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO AROUND 6 AM AST THIS MORNING AND ALLOW IT
TO EXTEND THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LATEST GFS MODEL FROM 24/00Z SHOWS
TODAY AS HAVING THE BEST AND MOST CONTINUOUS MOISTURE COLUMN OF
ANY DAY UNTIL NEXT THURSDAY. THIS DEEP SUPPORT WILL ALLOW
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT. MOIST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS
SCENARIO THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE GFS DID SHOW
SOME WEAKENING OF THE MOISTURE ON SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THE WETTER THAN NORMAL PERIOD THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK
NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AFTER MID WEEK. THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS HOWEVER SHOULD NOT SEE SUFFICIENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WILL BE NUMEROUS.
THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE EXTENDED HIGH HUMIDITY
BEHIND IT SUGGEST THAT NEXT WEEK WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL IN TERMS OF RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 24/12Z. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER TIST...TISX...TNCM AND TKPK IN SHOWERS. AFTER 24/16Z
MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE
TERMINALS DUE TO SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...MTN OBSCURATIONS AND VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THE
SHRA/TSRA. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COME DOWN AT 6 AM AST FOR ALL BUT THE OUTER
ATLANTIC WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AT OR BELOW 6 FEET FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 86 76 / 70 70 70 70
STT 85 76 86 77 / 60 70 70 70
Tropical Weather Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEAR ZONAL NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF
DEEP MOISTURE MAXIMUM COVERS THE SW CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W ALONG 11N78W THEN ACROSS COSTA RICA
NEAR 10N83W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
S OF 14N W OF 72W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA TO NICARAGUA. THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BRINGING IN LOW LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
N OF 14N E OF 71W INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO PUERTO RICO.
W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE
ACROSS MOST OF REGION THROUGH TUE. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO
THE CARIBBEAN SAT INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY TUE.
HISPANIOLA...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER HISPANIOLA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD AREA
OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE
GREATER ANTILLES INCLUDING HISPANIOLA. WEATHER SERVICE IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IS FORECASTING LESS RAINFALL FOR FRIDAY AS
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS.
NHC
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 6:00 AM on Friday, May 24, 2013
Lingering moisture and instability will continue to generate cloudiness and scattered showers across parts of the island chain during the next 24 to 48 hours.
Persons in areas prone to landslides and falling rocks are advised to continue to exercise caution.
Moderate sea conditions are expected through the next 72 hours with swells peaking near 8.0 feet. Small craft operators and sea bathers should exercise caution.
SYNOPSIS:
Light to moderate east to southeasterly winds with isolated showers will continue over the Cayman area during the next 24 hrs.
THE FORECAST:
Today: Partly cloudy skies with a 20% chance of showers. Temperatures will rise to the upper 80’s. Winds will be east to southeast 5 to 10 knots. Seas will be slight with wave heights of 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight: Partly cloudy skies with a 20% chance of showers. Temperatures will fall to the upper 70’s. Winds will be east to northeast 5 to 10 knots. Seas will be slight with wave heights of 1 to 3 feet.
TIDES:
Today: High 8:11 a.m. Low 2:53 p.m. High 9:43 p.m.
Tomorrow: Low 3:47 a.m. High 9:01 a.m. Low 3:37 p.m. High 10:29 p.m.
SUNSET: 6:57 p.m. Today. SUNRISE: 5:47 a.m. Tomorrow.
OUTLOOK: is for moderate east to northeast winds from Saturday morning as a high pressure system builds over the Gulf of Mexico.
FORECASTER: Powery
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
315 PM AST FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO EXIT OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
U.S. LATE TONIGHT AND THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO
THE CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM
THE EAST WILL INTERACT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...CAUSING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE LIMITED
TODAY BUT THINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AS THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT DIGS DOWN IN THE
CARIBBEAN AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE CAUSES NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. RIGHT NOW
THIS SHORTWAVE IS CAUSING DECENT CONVECTION ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND WE EXPECT THAT ACTIVITY TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE WEST AND
AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED
UNTIL 6PM SATURDAY WHICH NOW INCLUDES ALL OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
THIS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT ITS PEAK
ON SATURDAY BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS WELL...IN ADDITION...THE SOILS ARE
SATURATED AND ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS WILL CAUSE RUNOFF AND
THEREFORE FLOODING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 2 INCHES FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK AS WELL...ALTHOUGH NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS WHAT IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...CONVECTION SHOULD BUILD OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE USVI AND
NORTHEAST PR TERMINALS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND MVFR/IFR CIGS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS WRN AND NW PR SAT AFTERNOON
WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS.
&&
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED TODAY DUE TO SEAS NOW
BEING UNDER 7 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS SEAS MAY STILL BE UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS
WILL BE UP TO 20 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 88 78 87 / 70 70 70 70
STT 77 86 78 87 / 70 70 70 70
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
516 AM AST SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH
WILL LEAVE LOW PRESSURE NEAR FLORIDA EARLY MID WEEK THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE WILL OCCUR OVER THE LOCAL
AREA TONIGHT...OTHERWISE A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK.
AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MOVE
NORTH AND LEAVE THE MID LATITUDES LOCKED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE FROM
A STRONG NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH AND A WEAKER WESTERN ATLANTIC
HIGH CENTER. THESE HIGHS WILL KEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS PERSISTED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN
WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. OVER ONE HALF INCH
FELL AT THE AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS VERY
LOCALIZED ELSEWHERE AND JUST OFFSHORE. THE GFS MODEL SOLUTION HAS
PROVEN TO BE ERRATIC LATELY BUT AGAIN SHOWS MOISTURE INCREASING DURING
THE DAY WITH STABILITY DECREASING CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS. LIFTED INDICES FALL BELOW MINUS SIX BETWEEN 25/12Z AND
26/00Z. A WEAK SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND A MUCH LARGER AND
DEEPER LONG WAVE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PASS THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL AID IN THIS
DESTABILIZATION. THIS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT MORE FAVORABLE TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASED RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAINLAND
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE ISLANDS TO THE EAST
POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST
AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THEREFORE WILL HOLD ONTO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT NOT EXTEND IT BEYOND 6 PM AST UNTIL IT IS
KNOWN HOW WELL THE GFS IS DEPICTING THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. THE
LATEST GFS RUN...25/00Z...PAINTS TODAY AS HAVING THE MOST FAVORABLE MOISTURE
AND VERTICAL MOTION...HOWEVER GOOD PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...ABOVE 1.8 INCHES...PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK
AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOCAL AREA UNDER MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
RAINFALL DESPITE THE FACT THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MAY BE THE
DOMINANT FORCE AFTER MONDAY SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF TOO
FAR WEST TO PUSH THE HIGH FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS TJBQ...TJMZ AND TJPS UNTIL
AROUND 25/16Z. SHRA/VCTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TIST...TISX...TNCM...TKPK
AND TJSJ DURING THE FCST PERIOD. AFTER 25/16Z MVFR TO BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS DUE TO
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA...MTN OBSCURATIONS
ISLAND WIDE AND VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE
SHRA/TSRA. WINDS WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS FROM
SFC UP TO 2 KFT.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE ONLY SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AND SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
MOST EXPOSED WATERS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...CURRENTLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW IS EAST TO EAST
SOUTHEAST BUT...WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...SEA BREEZE FORMATION
HAS BEEN WEAK. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS CLOSER TO 850 MB AND ALSO MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY TO BE THE STEERING FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION AND
HENCE THE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
SOME RIVERS IN THE NORTHWEST INCLUDING THE CULEBRINAS AND ALSO
POSSIBLY THE HORMIGUEROS FARTHER SOUTH WILL EXPERIENCE RAPID
RISES. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT THEY WILL NOT FLOOD...BUT
OTHER SMALL STREAMS AND TRIBUTARIES MAY FLOOD WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
PERSIST FOR MORE THAN TWO OR THREE HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 87 77 / 70 70 70 60
STT 85 77 86 78 / 60 70 70 70
Tropical Weather Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
CLEAR SKIES SPREAD ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN
INCLUDING THE NW AND SE CORNERS. HOWEVER...A COUPLE AREAS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL PRESENT. THE FIRST AREA IS IN
THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
9N-14N BETWEEN 78W-84W. THIS IS LIKELY INFLUENCED BY THE MONSOON
TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS THROUGH COSTA RICA AND PANAMA TO NORTHERN
COLOMBIA. IT ALSO COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN FROM 16N-19N EAST
OF 68W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO WITHIN AN AREA OF ENHANCED
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA HAS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW LOW-
LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WITHIN TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BASIN. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE NE CORNER. A
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE WEST ATLC WILL MOVE
EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE BASIN AND MAY INFLUENCE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ISLANDS.
HISPANIOLA...
NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATE MOISTURE ALOFT...AND TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE JUST TO THE EAST. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
THIS AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE TO THE EAST WILL DRIFT WEST TOWARDS
THE ISLAND...WHICH COINCIDES WITH SURFACE TROUGHING TO THE
NORTH. THIS COMBINATION MAY LEAD TO A GREATER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
NHC
Lesser Antilles Forecast
This Afternoon's Forecast Valid From 1600Z Saturday 2013-05-25 To 2200Z Saturday 2013-05-25
Synopsis: Weak unstable conditions are affecting the Leewards and northern Windwards.
Wx : Over the Leewards and northern Windwards: Partly cloudy to cloudy and breezy with scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms. Elsewhere: Fair to partly cloudy and breezy with a few scattered showers.
Winds: ESE - E at 10 - 35 km/h.
Seas: Moderate in open water swells 2.0 - 2.5 metres. Small craft operators and sea bathers should exercise caution.
Tonight's Forecast Valid From 2200Z Saturday 2013-05-25 To 1000Z Sunday 2013-05-26
Synopsis: Weak unstable conditions will continue to affect the Leewards.
Wx : Over the Leewards: Partly cloudy to cloudy and breezy some with scattered showers. Elsewhere: Fair to partly cloudy and breezy with a few scattered showers.
Winds: E - ENE at 15 - 40 km/h.
Seas: Moderate in open water swells 2.0 - 2.5 metres. Small craft operators and sea bathers should exercise caution.
Date:
SATURDAY 25TH MAY 2013
Time:
6:00 AM
General Situation:
A RELATIVELY MOIST NORTHEASTERLY AIRFLOW WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
24hr Forecast:
SUNNY WITH SOME CLOUDY SPELLS TODAY AND CLOUDY AT TIMES TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MOSTLY OVER INLAND AREAS TODAY AND ALONG COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT..
Winds:
EAST - NORTHEAST 10-20 KNOTS.
Sea State:
CHOPPY - MODERATE.
Outlook:
FOR SUN. AND SUN. NIGHT IS FOR SOME CLOUDY SPELLS WITH A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH AND COASTAL AREAS.
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