Allan Reed

Posted by: reedzone, 4:36 AM GMT on August 18, 2008

Tropical Storm Fay may be at 50 mph, but looking at the last few frames of the IR, it seems to be blowing up convection and looking a bit, "hurricaneish" to me. I still am looking for winds to be up at 65 mph. by the next advisory which is at 2:00 a.m., then 75 mph. by 5 a.m. before hitting Cuba. Cuba is likely to not tear it apart like it did with Ernesto (2006). Ernesto traveled a good length of Cuba while Fay will only travel a couple of miles to the north. It appears that Fay is starting to make that urn towards Florida now and we all need to pay attention to it.

Tropical Storm Fay

How strong Fay will get, where will it hit?

I am not ruling out a rapid intensification to major hurricane status with Fay due to past storms that have traveled in the spot of the Gulf that Fay is going to go through, one of them being her big brother Charley (2004). I'm expecting Fay to at least be a category 2 at landfall around the Tampa area, but not ruling out a category 3 because the waters are sooo warm over there.
Models are pretty spread out but because Fay has now started it's northwestward movement, I'm positive that it will head to the Peninsula of FL. After moving through Florida and possibly bring us some damage here in Palm Coast, FL, it will turn west again due to a building high pressure ridge and stall in the southeast, bringing heavy rains. I still wonder if my job will be closing Tuesday, I know schools might be closing, they are on alert for now.
So here's my second run on Fay with a high confidence!

Tropical Storm Fay 2nd run!

It's time to get ready and please if you haven't prepared, PREPARE NOW! I'm telling you the forecast is being conservative. Look what happened with Katrina and Rita of 2005, blew up like a balloon! So stay safe and I will update after Fay becomes a Hurricane.

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A 2004-2005 pattern setting up, NOT GOOD FOR FLORIDA!!

Posted by: reedzone, 11:29 PM GMT on August 13, 2008

2008 is shaping up to be a dangerous year for Florida. 92L is starting to pose a bigger threat to the state as it is finally starting to organize with convection around the low. Hurricane Hunters are expected to fly into it tomorrow and by that time, a TD is possible. I had hopes that it would be a TD this morning due to the structure appearance last night. Normally when there is good structure, DMAX will blow the storm up like a balloon. Invest 92L (picture says 93...

Updated: 11:36 PM GMT on August 13, 2008

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Dolly threatens Southern Texas! Cristobal heads out to sea..

Posted by: reedzone, 7:57 PM GMT on July 21, 2008

A quick update on Cristobal, winds at 65 mph moving northeastwards out to sea. It is expected to take a nose dive south back into teh Atlantic, but redevelopment is not expected as of now.Tropical Storm DollyDolly remains a moderate Tropical Storm this afternoon with winds of 50 mph. The track continues to slowly nudge northwards and a Southern Texas landfall is now more likely then a Mexico landfall. It wouldn't surprise me if Central Texas could turn out to be a p...

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Hellooo Dolly!

Posted by: reedzone, 6:08 PM GMT on July 20, 2008

Cristobal looks to be encountering lots of dry air and the center is exposed as of now. It should continue to move northeast and out to sea, might scrape Cape Cod. Tropical Storm DollyWell after days of searching the Hurricane Hunters have finally found a closed low and Dolly was born this morning! Dollys track should remain south of the northern and central Gulf Coast states but Texas is of interest. I really don't have the time to explain everything but when you h...

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Tropical Depression 3 forms, not from 94L

Posted by: reedzone, 3:30 AM GMT on July 19, 2008

Tropical Depression 3 has formed just east of the Coast of Georgia with winds of 30 mph, moving to the northeast. The systems track is mostly a no brainer as the storm will act most likely as Alex (2004) and pull out to sea after striking the Carolinas. Will it become a Hurricane? If Alex did it, it's a fair chance that TD3 might do the same but right now I'm staying on the convervative side until I see more stuff. However I just got a nice lightning storm from TD3 ...

Updated: 3:33 AM GMT on July 19, 2008

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