Good morning!!! Well, I decided to do my first blog. By no means and I an expert in this field, Just wanted to give my expressions on the season so far. From June 1st until now we stand at 3 named storms, 1 hurricane and no majors as of yet.. Most outlooks from several sources have said this would be a very active season with 15-20 named storms with at least 10 hurricanes and 3-5 majors. With the exception of Cat. 2 Alex back in late June..it has been unusually quiet...things ticked up some with Bonnie and Colon and to a certain degree TD5.. which tried its hand twice at becoming named but didnt succeed luckily, even though it did drop alot of rain along the gulf coast..So now we are at Aug.19th. and it seems action maybe on the horizon out in the eastern atlantic. A wave emerged yesterday and nearly all the models want to develope this into a fairly strong hurricane and hopefully it will follow model guidance and become what we call a "fish" storm. As for the remaninder of the season, I couldnt begin to say what may happen.. Almost all parameters point to alot of action the next few weeks including SST's SLP, the MJO moving into a favorable phase, and a negative phase of the NAO..I know many have thought since the beginning of the sesaon we'd be popping with activity with all the outlooks and favorable conditions but, hey this is mother nature and she may just be waiting to spring big surprises on those as we call in the blog "down casters"..So Im gonna stick with my original outlook of 16 8 4..And yes I may have to eat alotta crow come Nov.30th. but I got a huge freezer, it'll hold my share.. So to close out I am in no means a downcaster type person. And i firmly believe action will tick up,, as to what extent Im un certain, but with all those favorable parameters..notwithstanding the well above normal SST's, somethings gotta give as my fellow bloggers Storm W and Levi say. By the way i want to comment them and others who do an excellent job with their blogs, who knows one day I may do as well huh..So forgive me if I mispelled and or didnt puncuate properly.. And please leave me a few comments.( hopefully not bad ones) and as my friend Levi says ' we shall see what happens' have a great day!!!! Hank
