Good afternoon all! I hope you have enjoyed your weekend, and those gorgeous temperatures. Highs yesterday topped out in the upper 60s to even around 70, bigger warm-up than anticipated (originally thought to top out at 60) so I hope you salvaged that. Today is a bit cooler, highs in the mid 50s, but still enjoyable, so take advantage of this as it will begin to turn colder later this week.
This week will be quite topsy-turvey as far as temperatures go. After highs in the 50s today, morning lows tomorrow will bottom out in the low-mid 30s. The rain is expected to arrive around daybreak, but at onset, it MIGHT be cold enough for us to see some ice pellets or a few flakes mixing in, but the best chance is NW of the metro. Anything frozen that does fall tomorrow morning will changeover to all rain mid-day. The NW winds will keep the temperatures in check, with highs only in the lower 40s. The rain should taper off Monday afternoon/evening, and lows will dip to around the freezing mark Tuesday morning. Tuesday will remain dry, with highs back into the mid 50s. An area of low pressure moving out of the deep south will travel to our NW, bringing us a good all-day rain for Wednesday with highs around 60. The bulk of the rain should move out late-evening but there could be a few leftover showers for Thursday morning, but it should be clearing out with highs similar to that of Wednesday. An arctic front will move through late Thursday evening, ushering in some very cold air. There could even be a few flurries for Friday morning with lows around the 30° mark. Highs Friday, quite chilly and windy due to the pressure gradient of the area of low pressure in the Great Lakes, around mid 40s. Saturday will remain chilly as well, with morning lows in the 20s. Models have been suggesting a possible moderate snowfall for Saturday yesterday, but the runs today have completely dropped the idea, as the storm forms way too far east for any of the east coast to see anything. Still something to keep an eye on though as it could change, knowing it's 6 days away. I know this may sound a bit ridiculous, but what the GFS is showing around the 18th-21st is intriguing me. It has been consistently been showing a storm around that time frame for the past few days. Track and precipitation type obviously doesn't matter at this point. All that matters is that the GFS is showing A storm for that time frame. Definitely something to keep an eye on.
Long range, as far as telecommunications go, a pattern change may occur possibly within the next week or so. NAO isn't forcasted to go negative until next week, as well as the AO. The PNA will sit around neutral. Those aren't the most ideal conditions for a big snow, but it is doable, and we could fit in a good snow under those circumstances. I'm a bit hesitant to go with the models on telecommunications as they have been performing poorly past 1 week out. There is more evidence put out there this time that there will likely be a pattern change in the near future, allowing cold and snowy conditions for the eastern US, so it's worth watching.
I'll be back with an update tomorrow.
Have a great rest of the weekend!
TF
