MD 1795
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1795
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0950 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NW TX AND SOUTH-PLAINS REGION.
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 586...
VALID 210250Z - 210415Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 586
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...REMAINDER WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND MCS MOVING SEWD 30-40
KT ACROSS SERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTH-PLAINS REGION. PRIND SVR THREAT
HAS PEAKED...BUT CORRIDOR OF THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND REMAINS
BETWEEN CDS-LBB BEFORE COMPLEX ENCOUNTERS PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE
AIR AND WEAKENS FURTHER.
DISCUSSION...FORWARD-PROPAGATIONAL MCS THAT PRODUCED SEVERAL SVR
GUSTS IN AMA AREA -- INCLUDING AT LEAST TWO ABOVE 65 KT -- WAS
EVIDENT AT 230Z FROM HALL COUNTY SWWD TO NEAR LBB. MRGLLY SVR/50-KT
GUSTS ALSO WERE MEASURED AT LBB AT 226Z AND TURKEY (HALL COUNTY)
MESONET SITE AT 220Z. NARROW CORRIDOR OF LINGERING SFC-BASED
BUOYANCY IS EVIDENT ALONG AND SW OF QUASISTATIONARY SFC FRONT
ANALYZED FROM HALL COUNTY SEWD TO NEAR ABI...AND ALONG AND E OF
MOIST AXIS DRAWN JUST E OF LBB-SJT LINE. SFC DEW POINTS GENERALLY
MID 50S TO LOW 60S F CONTRIBUTE TO ESTIMATED MLCAPE 300-800 J/KG IN
THAT SWATH. ALONG AND W OF FRONT...MLCAPE WILL CONTINUE DECREASING
TREND WHILE MLCINH INCREASES WITH TIME...AS DIABATIC SFC COOLING
CONTINUES. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE GEN/GRADUAL WKNG TREND ALREADY
EVIDENT IN REFLECTIVITY/BASE-VELOCITY RADAR AND IR-SATELLITE
IMAGERY. HOWEVER...A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH
ABOUT 04Z AS CONVECTION PROCEEDS SEWD OVER CENTRAL/SRN SECTIONS OF
CAPROCK AND ERN SOUTH-PLAINS REGION.
..EDWARDS.. 08/21/2012
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
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