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Emilia doesn't dissapoint/Daniel dieing/98E poised for development/disturbed area

Posted by: weatherh98, 10:06 PM GMT on July 11, 2012

Made using 5 PM EDT advisories

INTRODUCTION

Emilia now a category 3 after category 4 peak.
Daniel looks like Jose.
98E poised to develop.
Area of disturbed weather moves over florida.

EMILIA NOW A CATEGORY 3 AFTER CATEGORY 4 PEAK

Hurricane Emilia surely didn't dissapoint me. It intensified as expected to a category 4 hurricane with winds of 140 mph (slightly under my thought of a 145 mph peak). It weakened slightly before going through an Eye wall replacement cycle (EWRC). As it entered into the EWRC it continued to weaken before compleating the EWRC. It bottomed out as a category 2 hurricane before restrengthening to its current strength of 115 mph. Emilia appears to have gone annular after the last EWRC. Its eye is much larger than the previous eye.

FIGURE 1 shows size of the eye as compared to the main storm.

I expect a continued strengthining through the next advisory before taporing off in intensity. Emilia should move generally toward Hawaii. Possibly directly stiking them as a remnant low. Only increasing rain showers though.

DANIEL LOOKS LIKE JOSE

Well what more can I say.
Daniel

Jose

98E POISED TO DEVELOP

Invest 98E wants to be named and so the NHC is giving this an 80% chance of developing in the next 48 hours. I would give it a slightly lower chance in the next 48 hours of development. 70 %.

My forecast for 98E is to move more northerly than Daniel and Emilia and to recurve into Baja california.

AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER FLORIDA

An area of interest (AOI) has moved near florida this evening and currently has very weak circulation and it is not stacked. Most convection is off to the east. As it moves towards the Gulf of Mexico we may see further organization, however I am not expecting development into a named storm.

Thank you for reading this blog!
I will not be able to post again untill monday or tuesday.

Wxh98

Categories: Hurricane

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1. MAweatherboy1 10:23 PM GMT on July 11, 2012
Besides spelling dying wrong and making several grammatical errors, mostly in capitalization, good blog. Daniel looks a ton like Jose. Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 67 Comments: 6379

2. weatherh98 10:27 PM GMT on July 11, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1: Besides spelling dying wrong and making several grammatical errors, mostly in capitalization, good blog. Daniel looks a ton like Jose. I stick to math and science:) thanks for the feedback Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6095

3. Astrometeor 10:27 PM GMT on July 11, 2012
Thanks weatherh98! I expect to see Fabio soon-tonight or tomorrow morning. I agree with you on 70% but with a little more organization we will have a TD. The Debby wannabee over Florida will not be. Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 28 Comments: 1301

4. weatherh98 10:32 PM GMT on July 11, 2012
Quoting Astrometeor: Thanks weatherh98! I expect to see Fabio soon-tonight or tomorrow morning. I agree with you on 70% but with a little more organization we will have a TD. The Debby wannabee over Florida will not be. thank you Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6095

5. Bluestorm5 10:45 PM GMT on July 11, 2012
Quoting weatherh98: I stick to math and science:) thanks for the feedback Trust me, spelling and grammar will matters in high school or college ;) Great blog! Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 8 Comments: 3689

6. weatherh98 10:46 PM GMT on July 11, 2012
Quoting Bluestorm5: Trust me, spelling and grammar will matters in high school or college ;) Great blog! thanks! Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6095

7. TropicalAnalystwx13 10:53 PM GMT on July 11, 2012
Ahhhh the horror. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25357

8. GeorgiaStormz 10:54 PM GMT on July 11, 2012
swimming = no blog? -__- anyway nice blog. stupid wrf wants to develop the blog Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7174

9. weatherh98 10:54 PM GMT on July 11, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: Ahhhh the horror. thanks TA:) Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6095

10. weatherh98 10:55 PM GMT on July 11, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz: swimming = no blog? -__- anyway nice blog. stupid wrf wants to develop the blog Yup have state, cant do it! never heard of the wrf which means itisnt usually right which means it wont be right now because no other model shows it Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6095

11. TropicalAnalystwx13 10:58 PM GMT on July 11, 2012
Quoting weatherh98: Yup have state, cant do it! never heard of the wrf which means itisnt usually right which means it wont be right now because no other model shows it The WRF is a very reliable short-range model. Of course, you wouldn't know that. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25357

12. Patrap 10:58 PM GMT on July 11, 2012
Cool stuff. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111633

13. GeorgiaStormz 11:01 PM GMT on July 11, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: The WRF is a very reliable short-range model. Of course, you wouldn't know that. i know that and dont trust it this time. it gives the blob a track S of FL? really? Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7174

14. Civicane49 11:01 PM GMT on July 11, 2012
Nice blog. Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 62 Comments: 3933

15. weatherh98 11:03 PM GMT on July 11, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: The WRF is a very reliable short-range model. Of course, you wouldn't know that. KK Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6095

16. weatherh98 11:04 PM GMT on July 11, 2012
Quoting Civicane49: Nice blog. thanks thanks pat also Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6095

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