Weatherwatcher12's Tropical Weather blog
93L organizing; Will bring Caribbean islands rain
Posted by: weatherwatcher12, 2:57 AM GMT on June 24, 2010 +0
Hello all.
Even though the National Hurricane Center is calling 93L disorganized according to the latest satellite imagery it looks to be coming together and the pressure has dropped by 1 millibar, but it still has a long way to go.

The convection associated with 93L is displaced from the center which was last reported to be at 70N and 79.5W according to the BEST position: 170N, 795W, 25, 1009
Also according to the BEST position and the website tropical Atlantic the invest has moved from 1010mb to 1009mb which could indicate the possibility of 93L becoming organized.

Through out the day 850mb vorticity has increased to the west south-west of the island of Jamaica. This vorticity coincides with where the center of 93L is being reported, which means that it is possible that a surface low is trying to form. But, be aware that this could take a day or two. It still has to make its possible weak, broad low better defined.


There have been reports from the Cayman islands of pressures of around 1009.5mb. I have also recorded in Jamaica pressures that fluctuate between 1009mb and 1010mb. These pressures may very well be indicators that 93L is deepening.

93L is also still being protected by the large anticyclone that was present last night. This anticyclone is lowering shear over the center of 93L to minimal levels


But, regardless of development the island of Jamaica can expect moderate to heavy rainfall and possibly gusty winds as the convection nears the island. As a result of this the Meteorological Service of Jamaica has issued a flash flood watch for the entire island. According to the Met service a flash flood watch is,"that flash flooding is possible and residents are advised to take precautionary measures, keep informed by listening to further releases from the Meteorological Service and be ready for quick action if flooding is observed or if a Warning is issued." I recommend that you not to try to cross flooded gullies, roadways or bridges as it could be dangerous due to the speed of the water.
The met service also states,"A strong Tropical Wave is expected to move across the island later today. Satellite imagery indicates large areas of showers and thunderstorms associated with this system and these have the capacity to produce flash floods. Widespread showers and thunderstorms, which may be heavy at times, along with gusty winds, are therefore expected as the Wave moves across Jamaica.
The met service also states,"A strong Tropical Wave is expected to move across the island later today. Satellite imagery indicates large areas of showers and thunderstorms associated with this system and these have the capacity to produce flash floods. Widespread showers and thunderstorms, which may be heavy at times, along with gusty winds, are therefore expected as the Wave moves across Jamaica.

The Tropical Wave has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone west of Jamaica within 48 hours. As such, marine interests, particularly fishers on the cays and banks south of the island should take precautionary measures as weather conditions are expected to deteriorate today and tomorrow. Strong, gusty winds are also likely in showers and thunderstorms over inshore and offshore areas of the north and south coasts."

After the convection passes over Jamaica the Cayman islands can also expect a significant amount of rainfall. The extreme western tip of the Haiti peninsula is also receiving some of the thunder showers. Cuba can also expect some rain.

My Latest 93L Graphic and Projected path:


Notice *This is not an offical NHC product, this just represents my thoughts on where 93L may go and is subject to change depending on environmental conditions*
Updated: 2:59 AM GMT on June 24, 2010   Permalink | A A A
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93L a threat to develop slowly
Posted by: weatherwatcher12, 3:44 AM GMT on June 23, 2010 +0
Hello everyone, this is my first blog post so I hope you enjoy it.Although convection seems to be minimal one should not count out 93L. According to Cimss 850mb vorticity, which measures how much rotation there is about 5000 feet above the atmosphere, it shows that there is a strengthening area of vorticity between Haiti and Jamaica, although it is broad. This could indicate the beginning of the formation of a LLC which 93L has yet to achieve. But, the area of vorti...
Updated: 4:31 PM GMT on June 23, 2010   Permalink | A A A
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