I am pleased to forecast and dispel any further suggestions that Hurricane Emily is a threat to the US Mainland.
The vigorous TROF (weakness) that was located over Texas and was, at least for awhile, expected to remain has all but vanished. A slight weakness remains over parts of South-Central/East Texas, however this should be overcome by morning. In addition, the upper ridge that was said by some to be relaxing, by some to be building, has in fact become quiet strong over the past 12 hours or so. This ridge has built both faster and stronger than previously forecasted and has arguably built much further south and west. The final straw is the S/W moving east across the high plains...this feature is not nearly as strong as was forecast to be approx. 18 hrs ago. This means practically no impact on the ridge barreling to the west. Given all of these parameters -- I can see no logical explanation for a northward "jog" toward the US mainland.
Given the circumstances only 8 to 10 hours ago, one would have expected this storm to track more north than was being forecasted -- and rightfully so. The weakness over TX, the 'thought' that the ridge wasn't as strong or as far west, and the threat of a vigorous S/W across the high plains...coupled with the apparent northward "jog" for approx. 6 hrs caused many of us to speculate Emily was indeed beginning to shift. This scenario is extremely unlikely given the aforementioned conditions and Emily's continued apparent nearly due-westward track.
Models continue to pick up 'artifacts' and may lead some to think Emily has a shot of shifting northward...however, these are artifacts as Emily has reconvened her more westerly track.
The strength is anyone's guess; I'll attempt to narrow it down...Somewhere between TS and CAT5 (joke).
Folks along the TX/LA/ and perhaps MS (if you were worried) coastlines can breathe a much needed sigh of relief. This is not to say affects (high surf, rain bands, and occasional TS force winds) can't be expected. The brunt, however, will remain to the south somewhere around or just north of Tampico, Mexico.
As with any storm that hasn't reached land, things can change... NOT likely. Stay tuned to NHC or local NWS offices for official forecasts...
I'll see all of you when we track the next storm! - GN
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Hope I explained my reasoning good enough.
HGX/CRP/BRO/EWX dodged a big one this time, we'll have to wait and see next time..
TUESDAY, 12:45 P.M.
And Rita has her eyes squarely set on the western Gulf The questions
are pretty straightforward at this point. 1) Where will she make
landfall? 2) When will than be? 3) How strong will she get before
landfall? Rita has officially been upgrade to a Category one
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale, but the lowering pressure (now
980mb) suggests she's on the verge of becoming a category two storm.
The water is warm in her path, which is mainly west for the next two
days or so, and one she gets past about 89 degrees west longitude,
the waters are more or less unperturbed this summer, with water
temperatures generally between 84 and 89 degrees. Much like Katrina
before her, Rita will likely deepen very steadily over the next 48
hours and perhaps beyond, with the pressure possibly getting down
into the 920's before all is said and done. That alone would make
Rita a Category Four storm, and that is well within the realm of
possibilities.
My apologies for not getting a chance to update things on Monday. A
tight schedule and two outside appointments are but flimsy excuses
for not being on top of it. As a side note, there will be updates
tomorrow and again Thursday morning, but then I'm away from the
computer and out of town at a meet-and-greet of sorts in Chicago with
one our affiliates, WMBI. By then the final landfall target should be
narrowed in on.
I noticed yesterday that there was a fairly significant shift of the
models to the right of the forecasted path, and many adjusted their
tracks accordingly. Similarly, the models have been much more to the
left today, and that has meant a similar shift southward in the
projected tracks of Rita by many. It has been equally as fascinating
to watch the markets shift one way, then another with these changing
forecasts, with the price of oil and gas now down from levels
reached yesterday and last night.
From a pure impact point of view (and I'll define impact broadly in
terms of human lives, the destruction or damage to property, and the
disruption or damage to oil and natural gas operations in the
northern and western Gulf), the "best" track would be a hit either in
South Texas south of Brownsville and Corpus Christi, or even farther
south into northeastern Mexico. And in a perfect world, if we were to
carry this logic out even further, Rita would weaken before making
landfall, back to a category one storm or even a tropical storm! The
latter portion of this seems to be more fantasy than reality at this
point, but there is prayer. The two worst options would be for this
turn fairly quickly to the northwest, and ram into western Louisiana,
bringing another thorough soaking to the New Orleans area, or for a
hit near Houston, as that would not only have a major impact on the
oil and gas industry, but, far more importantly, directly strike at
the very place where many from New Orleans have at least temporarily
relocated to!
Houston, for what it is worth, is not a New Orleans, in the sense it
is above sea level, and wouldn't have nearly the same issues with
flooding. In addition, August and much of September have been pretty
dry, so there's at least a little wiggle room in this area for
handling torrential rains from a direct or near direct hit by a
strong hurricane. There are more ways to avoid the disaster that
struck New Orleans, one of them simply being the very vivid images of
what just happened there. But my job is not to debate the positives
and minuses of either city or either scenario, but rather to lay out
the meteorological possibilities and come to a conclusion as to what
is most likely to happen.
So, based on that, the main driver of the forecast is clearly the
upper level ridge over eastern New Mexico and central and western and
central Texas. This is about as strong of a ridge as you will see at
any time of the year, and even more so in the latter stages of
September. The clockwise flow around this ridge is one of the main
drivers of Rita, sending her on a westward journey out into the Gulf
later this afternoon and tonight. At issue, then, is what might
impact this ridge, and in what was so as to influence the eventual
path of Rita.
Currently there's an upper level trough that's swinging through the
Northeast and mid-Atlantic states, driving a cold front from the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley to New England and the mid-Atlantic
Coast. As fronts go, this isn't a very potent one. It will push a
very warm and increasingly humid air mass offshore, only to replace
it with a warm but dry air mass. There's also an upper level ridge
over the western Atlantic, east of South Carolina, Georgia and
northern Florida, and this will hold its ground to force the trough
to the north to bypass it through New England, then through the
Canadian Maritimes. A little piece of the trough will try to slip
southward around the bigger high over the southern Plains, but the
bulk of it will advance eastward through New England. Now, will the
little piece be enough to reach down and tug on Rita? My gut feeling
is no. This gets us through tonight and tomorrow.
The next feature to watch is the upper level low off the southern
California Coast. This feature has produced some showers and even a
few thunderstorms in southern California in the past 24 hours, a
pretty rare sight at this time of the year. This upper level low will
open up tonight and tomorrow, and be forced around the upper level
ridge parked over eastern New Mexico and Texas. Shearing will stretch
this disturbance more and more with time like salt water taffy, with
the northern end of the disturbance pulling moisture into Montana and
the Dakotas later tomorrow and tomorrow night, while the southwest
end of the disturbance is still dragging its heels through
southeastern California, southern Nevada, and northern Arizona. But I
don't see this feature having much impact on the ridge, and certainly
not on Rita.
I then look farther upstream, to a trough that's working its way
through the Gulf of Alaska. it would appear that over the next two
days, this will work its way southeastward, moving into the Northwest
later tomorrow night and Thursday morning. In time, it seems as if
this trough may way to dig along the West Coast. If that happens,
then you'll see the heights be forced to rise downstream, supporting
a ridge east of the Mississippi. That tells me that Rita will only be
able to come so far west before it starts sensing this trough digging
into the West. The critical question is this: When will Rita start to
sense that western trough, and where will she be when that happens?
Again, going with my gut, I lean more toward the Corpus Christi area
than anyplace else. It appears to be that Rita will have an awful lot
of forward momentum, and will by Thursday be a pretty large storm, at
least large enough to make anything that is going to steer it have to
work harder. In actuality, I see two scenarios. One, the storm keeps
lowing more or less due west, and ends up crossing Padre Island about
halfway between Brownsville and Corpus Christi, or, as it gets close
to land, begins to react to the natural curved shape of the Texas
coastline, and get turned northwestward, passing north of Corpus
toward Matagorda Island.
Do I completely discount the idea of the storm hitting as far north
as Sabine Pass? Of course not, though I would think right now the
chance of that happening isn't very high. Not zero, but not too high,
either. The Galveston area seems much more vulnerable, and the damage
that might be inflicted by such a hit would be severe. Not
necessarily catastrophic, as has been the case in New Orleans, but
severe.
Phillippe, in my humble opinion, remains a fish storm. It keeps
gaining latitude, and the more it gains heading northwest or
north-northwest, the less likely it is to get back to the East Coast.
Still, the nearly incessant problem along the coast in terms of
pounding surf, big waves, and substantial beach erosion will continue
most of the week.
The cold front moving through the Northeast is drawing very warm and
increasingly humid air through the mid-Atlantic states into New
England this afternoon, and that means a chance for severe
thunderstorms, despite the lateness of the season. But by 8 or 9
tonight, the threat of severe weather will be rapidly diminishing as
the initial bands of instability and thunderstorms move to the coast
and offshore. Look for rapid drying and stabilization of the
atmosphere thereafter. Following the front, the air won't turn much
cooler, if at all, though the daily averages will be somewhat lower
as a result of lower temperatures during the early morning hours. But
this afternoon will be unseasonably warm across the Midwest and
northern Plains into the Great Lakes with sunshine, and the same will
be true across the Ohio Valley, New England and the mid-Atlantic
states tomorrow with much lower humidity, too. Then it will go up
from there on Thursday, and, across the mid-Atlantic states on
Friday, too. Then another cold front will swing through the Great
Lakes and then the Northeast, with noticeably cooler air to follow
into the Midwest and Great Lakes Thursday and Thursday night, and
into upstate New York and northern New England Friday. That cool will
extend down into the mid-Atlantic states Saturday. Remember that
normals are dropping off quickly these days, so that with the cool
down at the end of the week into the weekend, we'll probably only get
back to near normal, but not much below it, if at all.
The transformation to a cooler fall regime will wait until next week,
and Rita will probably be the main impetus for change.
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