Dr. Masters stated in his blog a few days ago that he did not believe that we would get to the same number of storms as 1995 or 2005, because in those years by that date at least 5 had been named. It made me curious about the classification standards then vs. now, which as everyone knows is always a big debate on the blog.
I started researching the storms from 2005 by reading the archives, the summaries, and the leading statistics. Below is an outline of what I found. I also believe that the NHC is more conservative now then at any other point that I can find. Although I don't have enough information gathered to state that as a fact there are a few things that lead me to this conclusion: rarely does a system get classified now without a closed low, several of the systems I read had "broad lows". One storm was classified that only lasted 30 hours, that wouldn't even match the consistency definitions they have now.
If anyone else has information, statistics etc that you would like to add, post a comment.
Tropical Storm Arlene:
1. Began 6/8/05 – 6/14/05
2. Beginning winds 30 mph, pressure 1004
3. Tropical storm for 2 days
4. Lowest pressure 990
5. highest wind 70 mph
6. characterized by large circulation and lack of inner convective core (avila)
7.
Tropical Storm Bret
1. Began 6/28/05 – 6/30/05
2. beginning winds 35 mph, pressure1006
3. existed for 2 days, BOC,
4. lowest pressure 105
5. highest wind 40 mph
6. tropical formation was not forecast until 12 hours before occurrence
7. short-lived 30 hours
8. under today standards, probably would not have been named
Hurricane Cindy
1. Began 7/3 – 7/11
2. hurricane for only advisory
3. beginning winds 35 mph, pressure 1009
4. existed 8 days – up through the us
5. lowest pressure 992
6. highest wind 75 mph – 1 advisory
7. interesting tidbit – one of the reports for the winds came from “deepwater horizon”
8. “broad area of low pressure”, satellite classifications had begun, then hh
9. reclassified after season review for hurricane
Hurricane Dennis
1. began 7/4 – 7/18
2. beginning winds 30 mph, pressure 1010
3. up to a 4 at one point,
4. lowest pressure 930
5. highest winds 145
6. strong hurricane, from a wave, rapid intensification
7. nhc archive mentions several unofficial observations were obtained from the Weather Underground site.
Hurricane Emily
1. began 7/11 – 7/21
2. beginning winds 30, pressure 1010
3. up to cat 5 at one point
4. highest winds 160
5. lowest pressure 929
6. earliest forming cat 5
7. only known cat 5 to formed in July
8. circulation was broad and ill defined when categorized as a depression
9. two nine hours prior was first to show possible development
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If you want to get some background on the name/not name thinking from NHC, download this presentation Link. It is a compressed file (zip) so you will need to uncompress it. You should end up with two pdf files:
2010NHCNameOrNotNameExpanded
FLGHC_2010_Verification_Franklin
Haven't had a chance to go back to the 1995 yet. Its a lot of reading getting through the info. Probably will do that tomorrow. Really interesting reading what they say in the after the fact wrap ups though.
If you are interested there are additional presentations from the NHC forecasters at the 2010 Florida Govenors Hurricane Conference. Most are also zip, so need to be uncompressed.
Introduction to Tropical Cyclones
Probability, Surge
Seasonal Forecasting, Climate, Track, Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (largest file 21mb)
On the internets
Love your topic. It would be intereting to know if our numbers so far this season would be higher if the playing board was equal!
I'm thinking it's not equal. I didn't take notes, but I remember some heated debates about storms NOT being classified earlier this year. If you have the time some of Dr. M's blogs might contain good info. I'm thinking it was real early season storms. (but my mind is old, an earlier model with less memory capacity) I'm thinking late May and early June might have some stuff. Or even ask Levi or Ike, they seem to stick out in my old mind are having strong opinions on this issue!
WOW I've rambled!
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