U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus01 kwns 310058 
Storm Prediction Center ac 310056 

Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0656 PM CST Friday Jan 30 2015 

Valid 310100z - 311200z 

..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 

isolated thunderstorms may occur this evening through tonight across 
parts of southern Arizona and extreme southwest New Mexico. 

An upper-level low will move southeastward into northwestern Mexico tonight as a surface 
low develops along the Arizona-mex border. A surface trough is currently 
located in western Arizona with weak instability analyzed across southern Arizona where 
surface dewpoints are in the lower to middle 50s f. This along with 
large-scale ascent associated with the upper-level system will make 
isolated weak thunderstorm development possible across southern Arizona and 
far SW nm this evening into the overnight period. Elsewhere across 
the Continental U.S....thunderstorm activity is not expected this evening or 

.Broyles.. 01/31/2015 

Mesoscale Discussion

acus11 kwns 310259 
sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 310258 

Mesoscale discussion 0047 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0858 PM CST Friday Jan 30 2015 

Areas affected...down East Maine vicinity 

Concerning...heavy snow 

Valid 310258z - 310900z 

Summary...snowfall rates increasing to 1" per hour expected across 
the down east ME vicinity and adjacent portions of 
Canada...persisting through the early morning hours. 

Discussion...latest surface analysis reveals a low deepening off the 
ME coast at this time...with an inverted trough extending northward across eastern ME. 
This is occurring in response to the continued eastward progression of 
the sharp/complex upper trough crossing the northestern states at this time. 
Models continue to focus increasing qg ascent across the down east 
ME vicinity and into adjacent areas of the Canadian Maritimes...as 
the offshore surface low -- and zone of warm advection on its northern 
periphery -- strengthens and remains quasi-stationary over the next 
several hours. As ascent increases...a zone of moderate to heavy 
snowfall -- now beginning to develop over the area per latest radar 
imagery -- is expected to expand/persist across the discussion area 
into the overnight hours. High-res models confirm this scenario -- 
most of which are remarkably consistent in depicting this zone of 
sustained heavy snowfall across the discussion area -- becoming 
maximized after midnight. 

.Goss.. 01/31/2015 

..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Latitude...Lon 43706945 44426939 45366866 45816838 45836776 45596724 
44696683 43706945