Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kabq 231149 aaa
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
549 am MDT Mon Oct 23 2017
12z taf cycle
dry northwest flow aloft with few-sct high clouds expected today.
Sfc Lee trough will give way to a backdoor cold front across the ern
plains aft 23/15z with nely and Ely wind shifts. Backdoor front
reaches ksaf with southeast winds around 24/02z and gusty east winds
develop at kabq around 24/04z. Areas of MVFR upslope stratus clouds
are possible from the east slopes of central Mt chain ewd after
24/03z, possibly impacting klvs and ktcc.
Previous discussion...238 am MDT Mon Oct 23 2017...
dry, Fall weather is here to stay with a couple cold fronts forecast
to push through. The first cold front, a backdoor front, will push
down the eastern plains later today then progress west to near the
Continental Divide tonight. Tuesday will be cooler behind the front,
but look for a quick warm-up Wednesday with above normal high
temperatures most areas. The second and stronger cold front will
blast through on Thursday and bring much more significant cooling.
Chances for precipitation will enter the forecast with thursday's
front and favor the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and adjacent Highlands
going into Friday morning. Below normal temperatures are forecast
behind thursday's cold front, which may bring the first freeze of the
season to portions of the east central and southeast plains by Friday
look for significant warming today, with above normal temperatures
everywhere except for the northeast plains where a backdoor cold
front will push in. The backdoor front will advance down the plains
later today, then push west through the Central Mountain chain
tonight to near the Continental Divide. Moderate/gusty East
Canyon/gap winds are forecast into the Rio Grande Valley tonight.
Cooling behind the front will be most noticable across the eastern
plains on Tuesday, where high temperatures will remain 5 to 10
degrees below normal. Look for a quick warm-up Wednesday, with
temperatures trending back above normal most areas. Downslope winds
on Wednesday afternoon will help highs reach into the mid 70s across
the eastern plains.
The next and stronger cold front will arrive Thursday, bringing a
much colder airmass as a highly amplified synoptic weather pattern
develops, characterized by a West Coast ridge and central/eastern
U.S. Trough. Precipitation chances with this front continue to trend
down, with the best shot late Thursday into Friday morning across the
sangres. The second night behind the cold front, Friday night, looks
to be the coldest, with a number of east central/southeast plains
locales likely experiencing the first freeze of the fall season.
Below normal temperatures behind the front will once again be most
notable across the eastern plains. A warm-up is forecast for the
weekend as the West Coast ridge shifts east and breaks-down over the
intermountain west. Daytime temperatures are forecast to reach back
to above normal areawide by next Monday.
dry northwest flow aloft between a deep upper level trough over the
upper Midwest and a broad ridge of high pressure over California
will remain in place over nm today. A backdoor cold front associated
with the Midwest trough will slide southwest into eastern nm today
and through central and western areas tonight and Tuesday. Winds
will shift to northeast and east with cooler temperatures Tuesday,
especially east. Temperatures rebound to above seasonal averages
Wednesday. South and southwest winds will also be on the increase
most areas Wednesday as a Lee surface trough strengthens in response
to a weak upper level wave moving sewd through nm.
Winds increase further on Thursday, ahead of a cold upper level
trough approaching from the northwest. This trough promises the
coldest air of the season for Thursday night and Friday. Models
backing off on precipitation/snow amounts but continue to show a cold
airmass moving into eastern nm Thursday afternoon and evening and
pushing west southwest through the remainder of the forecast area
Thursday night and Friday morning. High temperatures fall to 15 to
20 degrees below average across the east and several to 10 degrees
below average central and west. Temperatures modify somewhat
Saturday and moreso Sunday under dry northerly flow aloft.