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Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
609 PM MDT sun Aug 20 2017

00z taf cycle
an upper level disturbance will continue to move northward over
the state tonight, before lingering over NE areas on Monday. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight with the greatest
coverage favoring the eastern plains where minor flooding will be
possible. Areas of MVFR conditions and localized IFR conditions will
be possible across the eastern plains tonight with all of the
precipitation moving through. There will be a risk of IFR conditions
in fog at row, if skies can clear before sunrise. Below normal
temperatures under plenty of cloud cover on Monday will probably
limit showers and storms to scattered coverage with the greatest
probability of precipitation in the northern mountains.



Previous discussion...336 PM MDT sun Aug 20 2017...
moisture has spread back into New Mexico today as evidenced by a
large area of light rain and scattered thunderstorms. Light to
moderate rain with embedded thunderstorms will continue through
tonight over central and eastern areas. Thick cloud cover will burn
off slowly Monday morning over central and western New Mexico but
remain thick over much of the eastern plains. A back door cold front
will slide southwest across eastern New Mexico Tuesday and focus
more showers and storms over the state. An upper level wave will
attempt to slide north from Mexico Wednesday and Thursday and
increase the potential for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding.
A stronger ridge of high pressure will build back over the region
late in the week and allow temperatures to warm closer to normal for
late August.


a large area of light to moderate rain over central nm is moving
slowly north while eroding along its western periphery. The main
wave of rainfall is focusing over eastern Socorro, Torrance, and
Lincoln counties. Meanwhile, storms are firing over the northern
high terrain and the eastern plains where stronger heating and
instability is in place. Guidance continues to struggle with the
evolution of the precip pattern overnight beneath a shearing sub-
tropical wave drifting northeastward over nm. The latest hrrr/RUC,
12z Storm Prediction Center-WRF, and 18z NAM are hinting that two rain areas will be
stretched out over nm. The first is shown from the abq Metro
northeast across northeastern nm and the second from north to south
over eastern nm. Quantitative precipitation forecast values are also quite high within these areas,
particularly over northeastern nm. Have focused the greatest pop
values basically along the I-40 corridor and into all of eastern nm.
Rainfall rates do not appear favorable for flash flooding so will
not Post a watch at this time. However, areal flooding and noteable
rises may occur on creeks and streams out east.

Remnant cloud cover will be thick over eastern nm and within the
base of the upper wave axis Monday morning. Cloud cover actually
increased on guidance for the eclipse period in these areas so
viewing will be tricky. The NAM is showing some mid level drying
from Catron to Socorro and Torrance counties but confidence is low
there will be any sustained breaks for a lengthy eclipse viewing.
These clouds may also limit instability for showers and storms over
most of central and eastern nm Monday afternoon. The most likely area
for clearing by the afternoon will be the northwest quadrant of the
forecast area.

Models are still in agreement that a back door frontal boundary will
move through eastern nm Tuesday and recharge low level moisture and
instability westward to the cont Divide. Meanwhile, another upper
wave is shown to move north from Mexico and provide forcing for
numerous showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday. Precipitable water values rise
above 1.2" in the Rio Grande Valley and over 1.5" across the plains
so locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding is possible.

A 592dm 500 mb high will attempt to redevelop closer to The Four Corners
region by late week and bring a downtick in storm coverage. Temps
will also warm closer to normal for late August.



Fire weather...
sub-tropical upper low over southwest New Mexico will continue
lifting north-northeastward this evening and overnight. Showers and
thunderstorms associated with this feature will continue to develop
around/near this low during the afternoon, pinwheeling
counterclockwise around it through the night. Strong to perhaps
severe thunderstorms will develop over the eastern plains this
evening and continue into the early morning hours. The sub-tropical
upper low is then forecast to move to near Raton around sunrise
Monday with drier air moving in from the southwest during the late
morning. Plentiful low level moisture, however, remains in place and
will combine with daytime heating to get scattered storms going once
again over most mountain ranges. Steering flow will take the storms
south and southeastward across the western half of the state with
storms moving to the east over eastern nm.

A backdoor front gets into the action Tuesday, helping to get an
above average crop of afternoon showers and storms going over the
mountains and higher terrain. Storm motion will be primarily from
west to east. Models agree that The Four Corners high will re-
develop over southwest nm Wednesday. This will mainly just result in
a change in storm motion. Northwest flow aloft will take storms from
northwest to southeast Wednesday afternoon and evening.

By Thursday, both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) break off a portion of the
closed low off the Southern California coast and bring it across the
northwest half of the state. And with low level east to sely flow in
place, widespread numerous showers and storms break out areawide.
Models continue idea of a drier west or southwest flow aloft moving
over Friday into next weekend. After 5 days of robust convective
activity over the forecast area, a break may just what the doctor



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