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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1217 PM MDT Friday Aug 26 2016

Aviation...
18z taf cycle
an upper level trough will deepen over the Great Basin today and
tonight, forming a weak but closed low over western Arizona by
Saturday. This will continue to funnel monsoon moisture over north and
central nm with mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms
favoring the afternoon and overnight hours. Strengthening low
level convergence under the developing low pressure system west of
nm will draw moisture into southeast and east central areas tonight with
another round of MVFR and IFR conditions in low clouds probable
along and southeast of a line from row to tcc early Saturday
morning.

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Previous discussion...343 am MDT Friday Aug 26 2016...
synopsis...
a weak wave in the upper atmosphere will keep scattered showers
and thunderstorms going across mainly eastern New Mexico this
morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across most
areas this afternoon, diminishing around sunset. A weak upper
level low near Las Vegas, Nevada is expected to draw up additional
monsoon moisture for greater shower and thunderstorm coverage
during the weekend. This weak upper low will continue to draw up
deep monsoon moisture early next week, keeping afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms quite active through at least
Tuesday.

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Discussion...
weak short-wave trough and associated 50kt jet streak keeping
showers and thunderstorms going early this morning. Most activity
concentrating from the Sangre de Cristos east to the northeast
Highlands and plains. Residual cloud cover and weak subsidence
following this short-wave will likely make for a late start for
convection this afternoon. 700-500mb lapse rates suggest
a relatively weak afternoon crop of showers and storms. Nam12
indicating most convection will die off shortly afternoon sunset
this evening. The one exception may be across the east-Central
Plains where the nam12 and higher resolution models suggest
convection could continue here until around midnight.

Flow aloft backs (goes from wly to swly) ahead of a weak upper
level low near Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday. This flow begins to draw
up higher precipitable water air from the south late-day Saturday. Increasing 700-500mb
lapse rates should combine with the increasing moisture to result
in an uptick in showers and storm coverage and intensity Saturday
afternoon and evening. Models agree that the weak upper will
drift southward through far western Arizona Saturday night into Sunday.
A deep southerly flow aloft over nm continues and results in an
increase for the potential for locally heavy rain, mainly east and
south Sunday afternoon and evening.

GFS and European model (ecmwf) agree that the weak upper low now over central/southern
Arizona will continue to draw up deep moisture from the south through early
next week. This low eventually fills and dissipates Tuesday but a
weak southwesterly flow aloft remains on the west side of the
upper high centered over the lower Mississippi Valley through
at least Wednesday. The GFS and European model (ecmwf) also backing off on drying
things out late in the week. Operational GFS especially keeps the
southerly moisture plume in place over nm through next weekend
while the European model (ecmwf) and Gem/Canadian models suggest some dry air on
southwest flow aloft moves in during the latter half of the work
week.

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Fire weather...
a fairly typical and active late August weather pattern is in place,
with a gradual uptrend in atmospheric moisture forecast through the
weekend into early next week. Daytime temperatures will remain below
normal across most of the area until later next week when a
warming/drying trend may take temperatures back to or slightly above
normal, especially east.

For today, disturbed westerly flow will combine with daytime heating
to produce a round of storms favoring the mountains and adjacent
eastern Highlands. Flow will back to the southwest by late Saturday
as an upper level low drops south across western Arizona and into
northwest Mexico by Sunday. Backing flow will lead to a significant
uptrend in pwats, especially along/east of the Central Mountain
chain where soaking rains are possible by late Sunday. Humidity
recovery will trend up over the weekend and be good to excellent
areawide by Sunday night.

Moisture advection will continue into early next week with a
dominant upper high center well to the east and the upper level low
over northwest Mexico opening-up and extending an inverted trough
axis northeast across Arizona into western New Mexico. This pattern
change will support good coverage of wetting storms early next week
with excellent humidity recovery. Some drying is possible toward the
end of the work week as a West Coast trough moves inland a bit and
the westerlies intrude, but forecaster confidence is lower given
differences between the 00z GFS and European model (ecmwf). That said, relatively
high forecaster confidence on a rather wet period setting up late in
the weekend through early next week.

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Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

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