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fxus65 kabq 302037 
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
237 PM MDT sun Apr 30 2017

Synopsis...
a warm-up is underway with plenty of sunshine today as the powerful
upper level low pressure system that brought rain and snow to New
Mexico Friday and Saturday pulls east away from the state. The
warming trend will continue through Tuesday, with all but the
northeast plains returning to near normal daytime temperatures. A
backdoor cold front will slide down the eastern plains late Tuesday
into Wednesday and bring cooler temperatures and a brief shot at
precipitation, focusing over the northeast quarter Tuesday night. The
cool down behind the front will last a day, then we'll be right back
into a warming trend that will last into Saturday with daytime
temperatures going above normal areawide as a ridge of high pressure
moves overhead. Chances for showers and storms will enter the
forecast next weekend, but more significant chances may be delayed
until the week of may 8th.

&&

Discussion...
brisk northwest winds prevail on the backside of the departing upper
level low, with plenty of sunshine allowing for 10 to 15 degrees of
warming today though temperatures remain well below normal. Another
cold night is on tap, with lows below normal across most of the area.
With some melting snow today and near-ideal radiational cooling
tonight areas of fog/freezing fog are possible, especially in
mountain valleys like the Moreno Valley.

A warming trend is underway and will send daytime temperatures back
to near or above normal by Tuesday, except for the northeast plains
where a backdoor cold front will hold temps below normal. The
backdoor front will fly down the eastern plains Tuesday night, with
precipitation chances focusing over the northeast quarter as a
shortwave trough ejects southeast out of Colorado into the plains.
Cooler conditions Wednesday will be followed by a renewed warming
trend that will send temperatures above normal areawide by Fri/Sat.

Latest medium range model solutions continue to show a large and
potent cutoff low over the southwest U.S. Or offshore of Southern
California late next weekend and into the following week. The GFS
seems to be the most inconsistent from run-to-run on the placement of
the upper low, while the European model (ecmwf) has been depicting the upper low
offshore. However, the 12z operational runs of both models have
trended further west, so we have added a slight chance mention of
showers and storms for Sat/sun across portions of the forecast area.
This could trend either way, but the eastern plains seem the most
likely candidate for storms beginning the week of may 8th as low
level moisture is drawn northwestward toward the circulation.

11

&&

Fire weather...
breezy to windy northwest winds will continue persisting across the state
the remainder of the afternoon before tapering off tonight as wrap
around energy from the exiting low shifts eastward. Overnight lows
will be a few degrees warmer than previous but along and north of
the I-40 corridor will see freezing to near freezing lows again
tonight. Overnight recoveries will be good to excellent central and
east with fair recoveries south and west.

The warm and dry trend will prevail throughout the week, except for
a brief cooling period in the eastern plains Wed because of a back
door cold front. Temperatures will remain below normal through
thurs before creeping above normal Fri and Sat.

Dominate zonal northwest flow aloft will persist through tues with
occasional aftn breezes. A weak shortwave will pass over nm Monday
developing northwest breezes across the state with little weather impacts.
A more potent upper level shortwave will clip NE nm tues night into
Wed, developing a back door cold front that will sweep into the
eastern plains tues night before arriving along the central mtn
chain Wed morning...creating a brief period of gap winds along the
central mtns. Increasing sfc moisture behind the front with
additional help from upslope flow will aid in development of shower
and thunderstorm chances along and east of the central mtn chain
tues night into Wed aftn. Temperatures will cool 10-15 degrees
central and east Wed.

Upper level ridging will build over the Great Basin the latter half
of the week. The dry and warm trend will ramp up as temperatures
reach above normal by Friday. Anticipate lower humidities as min relative humidity
values fall in the mid to low teens this week. Our next chance for
unsettled weather will occur Sunday into early next week as a potent
Pacific low dives across the Great Basin.

Vent rates will be good the rest of the week except across the
extreme NE plains tues, the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristos
Wed, and the middle rgv/eastern plains thurs.

32

&&

Aviation...
18z taf cycle
VFR cond will prevail areawide as clouds lessen toward the aftn.
Wrap around energy associated with exiting low will develop breezy to
windy northwest winds across the state with stronger winds favoring the NE
plains. Anticipate 40-45kt gusts across the NE plains, with 20-30kt
gusts elsewhere this aftn. It is possible that kabq could near aww
criteria after 18z with increasing atmospheric mixing.

32

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Farmington...................... 33 70 38 72 / 0 0 0 0
Dulce........................... 29 64 31 68 / 0 0 0 10
Cuba............................ 31 65 36 69 / 0 0 0 0
Gallup.......................... 27 71 32 73 / 0 0 0 0
El Morro........................ 26 67 30 70 / 0 0 0 0
Grants.......................... 28 70 31 73 / 0 0 0 0
Quemado......................... 33 69 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
Glenwood........................ 35 80 37 82 / 0 0 0 0
Chama........................... 26 57 29 63 / 0 5 0 10
Los Alamos...................... 35 62 42 67 / 0 0 0 5
Pecos........................... 31 61 36 67 / 0 0 0 10
Cerro/Questa.................... 26 60 31 65 / 0 0 0 10
Red River....................... 19 49 26 52 / 0 0 0 20
Angel Fire...................... 16 48 26 53 / 0 0 0 20
Taos............................ 25 62 30 66 / 0 0 0 10
Mora............................ 30 58 36 64 / 0 0 0 10
Espanola........................ 33 67 39 71 / 0 0 0 5
Santa Fe........................ 35 64 41 69 / 0 0 0 5
Santa Fe Airport................ 33 66 38 72 / 0 0 0 5
Albuquerque foothills........... 41 72 47 76 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque heights............. 42 73 48 79 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque valley.............. 37 75 41 80 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 40 73 46 79 / 0 0 0 0
Los Lunas....................... 37 76 42 81 / 0 0 0 0
Rio Rancho...................... 40 73 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
Socorro......................... 41 78 47 83 / 0 0 0 0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 31 63 38 67 / 0 0 0 0
Tijeras......................... 29 64 37 68 / 0 0 0 0
Moriarty/Estancia............... 28 68 33 74 / 0 0 0 0
Clines Corners.................. 32 64 38 69 / 0 0 0 0
Gran Quivira.................... 37 68 42 73 / 0 0 0 0
Carrizozo....................... 41 72 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
Ruidoso......................... 39 69 46 72 / 0 0 0 0
Capulin......................... 24 53 32 58 / 0 0 5 20
Raton........................... 27 60 33 65 / 0 0 5 30
Springer........................ 29 61 34 66 / 0 0 0 10
Las Vegas....................... 29 63 35 69 / 0 0 0 10
Clayton......................... 31 60 35 64 / 0 0 5 20
Roy............................. 28 60 34 67 / 0 0 0 10
Conchas......................... 33 70 43 75 / 0 0 0 5
Santa Rosa...................... 34 71 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
Tucumcari....................... 35 74 43 80 / 0 0 0 0
Clovis.......................... 37 75 45 81 / 0 0 0 0
Portales........................ 38 76 46 82 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Sumner..................... 38 76 47 82 / 0 0 0 0
Roswell......................... 41 84 49 90 / 0 0 0 0
Picacho......................... 42 76 48 82 / 0 0 0 0
Elk............................. 39 74 46 79 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
Wind Advisory until 4 PM MDT this afternoon for the following
zones... nmz530.

&&

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