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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
551 PM MDT sun Jun 17 2018

Aviation...
00z taf cycle
a few lingering showers and thunderstorms remain over central into
northeast New Mexico this evening, with most of the activity ending
shortly after dark. Isolated MVFR ceilings and visibility will
accompany the heavier showers/storms. Gusty and erratic winds
possible. Skies will clear in much of the state by early morning
Monday. The exception could be far eastern New Mexico near the Texas
border where some low layer moisture could bring another round of low
clouds and MVFR to IFR ceilings to kcvs and vicinity.

&&

Previous discussion...330 PM MDT sun Jun 17 2018...
synopsis...
a few showers and thunderstorms may linger across north central New
Mexico tonight as an upper level disturbance finishes crossing the
area. Dry and warmer weather is expected Monday. An upper level low
pressure system crossing the northern and central rockies Tuesday
will draw enhanced moisture northward into eastern New Mexico with a
chance for showers and storms as far west as the Central Mountain
chain. Then the chance for storms will linger across the east through
the end of the work week as a couple of back door cold fronts arrive
with additional moisture.

&&

Discussion...
a weak upper level disturbance will finish crossing the forecast area
tonight as a broad low pressure system over the Great Basin draws it
northward. Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms should
favor north central areas this evening.

The broad upper low will take it's time to pass eastward over the
northern and central rockies this weekend. Initially the upper low
will steer a region of drier air over the state from the southwest
on Monday. Monday night, low level air converging below the upper
level low will draw a return flow of low level moisture north and
northeastward into the eastern plains. Much of this moisture should
mix eastward Tuesday, but enough moisture may linger for a chance of
showers and thunderstorms from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and the
Sacramento Mountains eastward, as well as across the far eastern
plains.

Moisture will also arrive with a couple of back door cold fronts
that will penetrate the east Tuesday night and Wednesday night,
keeping the chance for showers and storms in the forecast across the
east through the end of the work week.

44

&&

Fire weather...
the Pacific low that was expected to lift over The Four Corners as
an open wave retained its circulation longer than expected, and it
is very slowly lifting over nm on a track much farther south than
previously expected. Nonetheless, the sensible weather elements have
not deviated too much from previous forecasts. Isolated to scattered
showers have been favoring the north central to northwestern zones,
and through the afternoon a few thunderstorms might take shape with
a stray cell or two possibly initiating between the Continental
Divide and the north central mountains. Otherwise, temperatures are
several degrees warmer than 24 hours ago, and with lowering
dewpoints the relative humidity is consequentially undergoing a significant drop.
Drier air is also continuing to work into western nm. Most
shower/thunderstorm activity should diminish by dusk as instability
wanes, and good to excellent relative humidity recovery is expected tonight into
Monday morning.

Drier conditions will remain entrenched over western nm while the
eastern half of the state attempts to retain it through at least the
first half of the week, a fairly typical June weather pattern.
Prevailing winds will remain light to moderate through the week,
even with a slightly stronger gradient aloft as a low moves toward
the northern rockies. A couple of back door cold fronts could invade
the northeast during the mid week period, perhaps enhanced by any
storms in co/KS. These, along with a periodic east southeast flow
from the Gulf of Mexico, will keep the low layer moisture in place
over the eastern plains through mid week. However, the moisture will
start to mix east toward the nm-Texas border by late week. The high
Haines indices that will be in place over western zones tomorrow
will consequentially and steadily spread eastward each day. Isolated
to scattered storms will remain possible in the east, becoming less
likely by the week's end.

52

&&

Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

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