Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kabq 111740
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1040 am MST Mon Dec 11 2017
18z taf cycle
VFR conditions with light winds to persist through the taf period,
except at ksaf where moderate northerly drainage winds will prevail
through early this afternoon and again Tuesday morning. There will
be a weak wind shift at ksaf and kabq tonight when a back door front
spills into the Rio Grande Valley.
Previous discussion...247 am MST Mon Dec 11 2017...
strong upper level high pressure over the Great Basin will extend
southeastward across nm today, bringing another day of above normal
temperatures to the state. A weak backdoor cold front will move into
the northeastern plains late this afternoon and into central nm
tonight. Slightly cooler air is expected behind the front Tuesday,
but temperatures will still be well above normal. Backdoor cold
fronts late Wednesday and Thursday will lower temperatures back to
near normal by Thursday. High pressure aloft will build across nm
Friday, returning temperatures to above normal. Though the high
pressure is expected to weaken Saturday through Monday, dry west flow
aloft will keep temperatures above normal through the period.
a large area of upper high pressure in the Great Basin will extend
southeastward across nm today, keeping a dry and warm air mass across
the state. High temperatures today will be 5 to 15 degrees above
normal with very dry dewpoints in the single digits to low teens. A
weak backdoor cold front will push across the northeastern plains
this afternoon and into central nm this evening. The front will have
only minor impacts with slight cooling Tuesday, and high
temperatures still well above normal. A couple stronger shortwaves
will move through the Central Plains states Wednesday and Thursday.
Backdoor cold fronts associated with these systems will move across
eastern and central nm Wednesday afternoon and evening and again
Thursday afternoon and evening. Both fronts will be dry, but the
front on Thursday will bring a reinforcing push of cooler air and
slightly higher relative humidity to the eastern plains. Wednesday
high temperatures will stay above normal, yet highs Thursday will
fall back to near normal.
A ridge to the west will build eastward across nm Friday, while a
weak Lee surface trough will form across northeastern nm and
eastern Colorado. Under the ridge, temperatures will once again be above
normal, while west to west southwest winds will become breezy east of
the central mountains and south of I-40. A series of weak upper level
low pressure systems will move well north of nm Saturday through
Monday, causing the ridge aloft to flatten out. The resultant west
flow aloft will keep the region dry with above normal temperatures.
an extremely dry atmosphere continues across the area with the 00z
kabq upper air sounding showing a precipitable water of 0.05", which is well below
normal. Today will be similar overall to yesterday, with mostly
light winds and poor vent rates. A weak backdoor front will push
down the eastern plains and provide a few degrees of cooling going
into Tuesday, however daytime temperatures will persist above normal
with poor vent rates.
A stronger cold front is forecast to push through Thursday bringing
some cooling and increased moisture, but with little to no chance
for wetting precipitation. Look for the cool down to be short-lived
with a warming trend going into next weekend. Vent rates should
trend up as well from Friday into the weekend, especially across the
eastern plains, as the westerlies increase across the region.
Looking beyond the weekend, the 00z medium range model solutions are
offering Little Hope for wetting precipitation with the jet stream
remaining north of New Mexico through the 20th of this month.