Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus65 kabq 222350 aaa 
afdabq

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
550 PM MDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Aviation...
00z taf cycle
a potent back door frontal boundary sliding south and west over
eastern nm will continue to focus rain showers/thunderstorms and rain with strong outflow
winds, hail, and torrential rainfall thru 06z east of the central
Mt chain. Gap winds will develop in the Rio Grande Valley as the
front moves west with gusts up to 35kt possible at kabq. Storms
expected to fire up along this boundary thru 03z in the Rio Grande
Valley from ksaf to kabq and konm. Rain showers may linger into much of the
night behind the boundary within central and eastern nm. Low cigs
and patchy fog to become the dominate impact aft 06z over eastern nm
with MVFR likely. IFR potential greatest at ktcc. Guidance was not
in good agreement on IFR at klvs. Slow clearing expected Wednesday
morning while another round of rain showers/thunderstorms and rain fires up over all high
terrain aft 20z. Most storms the next 24 hrs to move east/southeast near 15kt.

Guyer

&&

Previous discussion...257 PM MDT Tue Aug 22 2017...
synopsis...
a backdoor front will push southwest through the area this evening
and overnight, focusing storms and the potential for locally heavy
rainfall across the south central mountains and southeast plains.
The front will recharge moisture over the state and lead to several
days of robust storms with potential for locally heavy rainfall,
mainly over the higher terrain. High temperatures will generally be
near or slightly below normal through the end of the work week thanks
to cloud cover and rain-cooling. High pressure aloft will center over
the Great Basin by the weekend, which will allow for daily rounds of
storms to continue and generally be focused over the mountains of
central and northern New Mexico. Otherwise, daytime temperatures will
be within a few degrees of normal this weekend and into early next
week.

&&

Discussion...
the backdoor front progressed into the northeast and east Central
Plains this morning and kicked off a round of deep convection that
produced significant locally heavy rainfall amounts up to 5" across
portions of Harding County. The front is currently progressing
southwest across the east central and southeast plains and
triggering a round of heavy rain producing storms between Fort
Sumner, Clovis and Portales. This round of convection has likely
reached it's potential and the front is moving into an area with
similar surface based instability, so locally heavy rainfall amounts
between 2-3" and pulse-type severe storms look to be a good bet
across the southeast plains late this afternoon into the evening
hours. The front will create moderate East Canyon/gap winds into
portions of he middle/lower Rio Grande Valley this evening and then
progress west to near the Continental Divide. The front will recharge
moisture across much of our area and cause pwats to rise back to
near or above normal through Thursday as the upper high remains
anchored south of US. Wed/Thu storms will be capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall amounts over 2", mainly over western and south
central higher terrain Wed then over much of central and eastern
portions of the area Thu.

The upper high will begin to strengthen and transition north Friday,
eventually becoming centered over the Great Basin by late in the
weekend. Sufficient moisture will remain over the area for daily
rounds of storms, which will become more focused over the mountains
and adjacent Highlands/valleys of central nm going into early next
week as the flow aloft turns more northerly. There are some
differences between the 12z GFS and European model (ecmwf) solution on the
positioning/orientation of the upper high going into the middle of
next week that would make a difference in terms of storm production,
so forecast confidence decreases from early to mid next week.

11

&&

Fire weather...
a potent backdoor cold front will move west and southwest across
central nm late this afternoon into the evening, setting off mainly
scattered showers and thunderstorms as it does so. The front will
push to the Arizona line by sunrise Wednesday. Locally heavy rainfall is
likely from the stronger storms. Favored area(s) for storms will
shift to the southern half of the state Wednesday as dry air aloft
from the west limits storm formation north of Interstate 40.

A weak sub-tropical wave remains on track to move from southwest to
northeast across the state Thursday, resulting in an uptick in
showers and storms Thursday afternoon and evening. Four Corners high
pumps up along the nm/Arizona border Friday, pulling in some dry air in
from the northwest. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure over
West Texas will create a low level easterly flow east of the Central
Mountain chain, resulting in a convergence zone along the east
slopes of the sangres and Central Highlands. Convection will favor
these areas as a result. Low level easterly flow continues Saturday
as The Four Corners high center builds over the Great Basin. Storms
will once again favor areas along and east of the central mountains.

Low level easterlies push westward into central and western nm
Sunday, spreading low level moisture and thunderstorms chances to
the Arizona line. The one exception is forecast across the northwest
plateau where dry air will continue to win out. Low level easterlies
continue into early next week and with The Four Corners high
remaining over the Great Basin, near average crops of afternoon and
evening storms will continue for most areas.

33

&&

Abq watches/warnings/advisories...

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations