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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Aberdeen South Dakota
641 am CDT Thursday Aug 25 2016

Short term...(today through Saturday afternoon)
issued at 238 am CDT Thursday Aug 25 2016

A few light showers could be flirting with the southwest counties of
mainly Stanley and Jones through the day today, with the bulk of
moisture remaining well to our west.

An elongated 500mb trough extends all the way from northern Quebec
through the northwestern corner of Minnesota, to southern Idaho and northern
California. The initial disturbance will move across southern Canada and
northern Minnesota today, with much of the energy remaining well to our
north. Our area will still be dominated by west-northwest winds near
the sfc, with 850mb temps ranging from 8 to 10c and sfc temps
hovering around 70f. The sfc high set up across much of Montana will
swing east and over the cwa from 21z this afternoon until 09z
Friday. Continued to lower temps over the James River Valley a
couple of degrees from a general consensus of lows near 50f. While
there may be some mid and high clouds around from time to time,
mostly dry weather should prevail.

The sfc high will exit across southern Minnesota during the day Friday,
with a ridge lingering along the ND/South Dakota border. Showers and a few
embedded thunderstorms will move into the western half of the cwa
during the day. Will keep thunderstorm potential to the slight
chance category, as instability looks limited. The best chance of
precip will be during the day Friday over the west half, before
diminishing in intensity/coverage Friday night-Saturday. The western
extent of the 500mb trough will shift across the Dakotas on
Saturday. While the thunderstorm potential increases Saturday as
temperatures rebound into the mid 70s to lower 80s, the areal
coverage of precip will remain low.

Long term...(saturday evening through wednesday)
issued at 238 am CDT Thursday Aug 25 2016

Zonal flow aloft will dominate the extended range forecast. Close to
the end, the middle of next week, we will see a deepening western
Continental U.S. Trof which will eventually direct moisture back into the
forecast area. In the interim, the result will be dry conditions,
with a Lee low along the Front Range. The resulting south/southwest
flow will result in more humid conditions in the east with dry
dry/deep mixing West River. Over the course of the weekend/start of
next week we can also anticipate a warming trend with readings
increasing 10 to 15f above climo.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 630 am CDT Thursday Aug 25 2016

VFR for kpir/Katy/kmbg, however there may be a brief period of
some spotty MVFR cigs for kabr this morning. Precipitation will
close in on the kpir terminal towards the close of the taf period
but at this point it appears cigs/visby will remain VFR.


Abr watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.


Short term...kf
long term...Connelly

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