Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Aberdeen South Dakota
655 am CDT Thursday Sep 29 2016

Update...
issued at 646 am CDT Thursday Sep 29 2016

See below for an updated aviation forecast discussion.

&&

Short term...(today through Saturday afternoon)
issued at 327 am CDT Thursday Sep 29 2016

The next few days the region will be sandwiched between a low
pressure system over Ohio and a West Coast trough. With the region
under upper level ridging, we should see dry conditions with
slightly above normal temperatures. Winds will gradually shift
around to the south-southeasterly direction later today as a surface
low pressure approaches the region from the west. The strongest
winds will occur along and west of the Missouri River valley. The
dry conditions, along with the winds should produce high fire
danger. Breezy southerly winds will continue on Friday, along with
warmer temperatures. Fire weather will again be a concern, but dew
points will also increase slightly with afternoon relative humidity values above 30
percent. A weak shortwave may cross the region on Saturday with only
increasing cloud cover expected. Even with partly cloudy skies,
temperatures should warm into the 70s as 925 mb temps climb into the
mid and upper teens.

Long term...(saturday evening through wednesday)
issued at 327 am CDT Thursday Sep 29 2016

Not a whole lot of change showing up in tonight's 00z gsm output.
Everything seems to just be slowed about 12 to 24 hours. Still
monitoring a potential low pressure system set to impact the region
by the middle of next with some precipitation chances. Plenty of
warm dry weather is expected leading up to the mid-week system on
breezy/windy southerly winds. Then, behind the system, plenty of
cold dry weather is expected on breezy/windy northwesterly winds.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 646 am CDT Thursday Sep 29 2016

Have observed some patches of radiation ground fog developing
over the past few hours. Very sporadic, but where it's been able
to develop, it's rather dense, including at the kabr terminal.
With sunrise occurring within the hour, expecting to see this
temporary "down to the deck" IFR flying weather rapidly improving
to VFR this morning. Then, VFR conditions should prevail across
the area through the rest of the day today into tonight. Still
expecting southeasterly winds to increase into the 15 to 25 knot
range mainly across the western portion of the County Warning Area by midday
today, including at kpir and kmbg.

&&

Abr watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

Update...dorn
short term...South Dakota
long term...dorn
aviation...dorn

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations