Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
325 PM akdt Thu Jul 27 2017
a weather front will move into western Alaska today and Friday
but no significant hazard impacts are anticipated at this time
across the forecast area. Models initialized well with the 12z
analysis and are in good agreement with large scale synoptic
features through Sunday. There are some differences in position
and strength of features early next week but the general pattern
A ridge aloft extending from Bristol Bay to Barter Island will
shift east to the Alaska-Yukon border by Saturday. This ridge
will persist over the eastern interior through Sunday before being
pushed south and across the southern interior. An upper level low
over the chukotsk peninsula will move east into the Chukchi Sea
on Friday and dig southward along the West Coast. This upper low
will quickly lift north and be absorbed into a much larger low
developing over the high Arctic on Sunday.
At the surface, a weather front currently moving into the West
Coast will push into the western interior by Friday but dissipate
as it moves inland. Winds will remain below advisory criteria
along the West Coast but gusts around 50 mph are likely along the
Bering Strait coast as the front moves onshore. Small craft
advisories over much the marine waters South Cape lisburne will
end by Friday afternoon. Shower activity will increase across the
western half of the interior Friday but the heaviest rain will be
over the Seward Peninsula and south slopes on the northwest Brooks range.
Moist southerly flow on the West Coast into Saturday will allow
showers to persist.
Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none.
Fire weather...warmer and drier in the central and eastern but no
threat of reaching red flag criteria. Relative humidities falling
into the 30's percent range in the upper Yukon valley and into the
40's elsehwere in the central and eastern interior. Some wetting
rains along the West Coast will make it into the southwestern
interior Friday. Thunderstorms activity will be primarily in the
southern interior today along the thermal trough but expanding
northward across the central interior and Brooks range through
Hydrology...the weather front moving into western Alaska may
bring 1 to 2 inches of rain to portions of the Seward Peninsula
and northwest Brooks range through Saturday night. This will result in
rises on small streams and rivers but flooding is not expected.
Around one inch of rain fell over the north side of the eastern
Alaska Range and Wrangell Mountains during the past 24 hrs and up
to one more inch is possible through Friday from heavier showers.
Small streams will be rising but flooding is not expected in that
Small Craft Advisory for pkz200-pkz210-pkz220-pkz225-pkz240-