Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxak69 pafg 220045
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
445 PM akdt Wed Mar 21 2018
long wave ridge over western Alaska will build over northern
Alaska through Thu and persist through Fri. A long wave trough
over Kamchatka and the western Bering Sea will progress east over
the Bering Sea Thu and into western Alaska on the weekend as a
series of strong short waves move north over the Bering Sea and
slowly erode the ridge aloft. The ridge will slowly break down
from Sunday into next week.
This will means that the interior will have typical March weather
of clear cold nights and sunny warm days into the weekend. The
West Coast remains stormy with strong winds, snow, blowing snow
and possible rain into the weekend. The North Slope will see
increased winds and blowing snow developing tonight and
continuing into the weekend.
a 1032 mb low 200 nm northeast of Barter Island will move to Banks
Island tonight. Winds over the Arctic coast will turn east
tonight. Patchy fog will persist.
High pressure building over the interior and eastern Arctic
tonight will move over the alcan border and Beaufort Sea Thu then
persist into Fri. This will cause east winds and blowing snow along
the Arctic coast Thu into Fri.
A 1012 mb low southwest of wrangel island will move northwest. A
warm front stretching from wrangel island to the Bering Strait to
the Yukon Delta will move to Point Lay to Unalakleet by 4am Thu,
to Wainwright to Umiat by 4pm Thu, then persist in place through
Fri. There will be 3-6 inches of snow with this front. There is
warm air with the front that is causing rain at St Lawrence Island
now, and will bring a chance of rain to the Bering Strait and
Point Hope tonight. All precip will change to snow by early Thu.
There will also be southeast winds 20-30kt and low visibility in
blowing snow along the West Coast with the front with higher gusts
of 60-70 mph along CAPES from from Savoonga to Cape Lisburne.
Have issued winter storm warnings or advisories along most of the
West Coast today into Thu, and for the western Arctic coast
tonight and Thu. From Barrow east expect east winds 20-30 kt and
1/2nm in blowing snow Thu into Fri.
A strong low in the southwest Bering Sea will move to near cape
navarin as a 962 mb low by 4pm Thu, and to near Anadyr as 983 mb
low by 4pm Fri. A cold front stretching south from this low will
move to provideniya to Nunivak Island by 4pm Thu, to Point Hope to
Anvik by 4am Fri and to Point Lay to McGrath by 4pm Fri, then
dissipate from Point Lay to Denali on Sat. Expect another few
inches of snow and south winds 30 kt with this feature along the
West Coast that will diminish as it moves inland Fri.
models initialize well and show similar solutions on most fields
through 4pm Fri, then NAM become the odd one out on the strength
of the low over NE Siberia. The NAM also has higher precipitation
amounts than the GFS/ecmf. Favor the GFS solution through Sat as
the NAM precip amounts appear too high.
From sun into next week favor solution closer to the ecmf where
the ridge aloft slowly breaks down.
Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...southerly gales over the
eastern Bering Sea this afternoon increasing to near storm force
Thursday. Ice edge far enough south that do not expect issues at
this time, but there is a slight chance for ice push onshore south
facing shores of St Lawrence Island and Little Diomede Thursday
Winter Storm Warning for akz201-akz207-akz208-akz209-akz213.
Winter Weather Advisory for akz202-akz203-akz204-akz211-akz214.
Small Craft Advisory for pkz200-pkz230-pkz235-pkz240-pkz245.
Gale Warning for pkz210-pkz220-pkz225.
Storm Warning for pkz210.
Brisk Wind Advisory for pkz215.