Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
304 PM akdt Fri Apr 20 2018
a strong short wave trough stretching from the Canadian
archipelago to Old Crow to the Yukon Delta will eject more energy
southwest to form a low just west of the Yukon Delta Sat which
will move over the southeast Bering Sea sun then return back north
This pattern is showing strong NE winds and cold air over
the northern interior and West Coast now just north of the short
wave trough that will decrease Sat as the low moves off shore.
There is snow developing just southeast of the short wave today that
persist into tonight, then will decrease Sat as the flow aloft
over the interior turns southerly.
a 1028 mb high northwest of Barrow will persist through sun then
move east on Mon.
A 995 mb low near Denali will move to near Bethel by 4am Sat, and
then to the southeast Bering Sea as a 996 mb low Sat PM and to
west of St Matthew island as a 996 mb low. A weather front
extending east from this low to Chicken will move to Bethel to
Denali to Chicken by 4am Sat, to the Yukon Delta to Fairbanks to
Chicken by 4pm Sat, and then continue north and weaken along a
line from the Bering Strait to Eagle by 4pm sun. Expect 1-2 inches
of snow along the front today through Sat, then tapering off Sat
night into sun as the front weakens. Will see 3-6 inches of snow
in Alaska Range along this front through tonight. Snow will taper
off over the southeast interior early Sat as weak southerly
Chinook winds develop there.
There are northeast winds 15g25 mph over the interior and West
Coast north of the front. Local areas over higher terrain in zones
219 220 and 221 will see gusts to 40 mph through early Sat.
Areas along the West Coast north of the front will see northeast
winds gusting to 40 mph through Sat. Winds will decrease Sat over
A low moving north into the southeast Bering Sea sun will move to
the central Bering Mon. This will bring a chance of snow to
southwest Alaska Mon.
A strong low moving north over the West Coast of Alaska Tue and
Wed could bring rain snow blowing snow and strong se winds Tue and
models initialize above the surface and show similar solutions
through 4pm sun. After that time, the GFS and ecmf differ on
strength and timing of short waves. Favor the ecmf Sun night and
At the surface at 15z, models initialize few mb too weak on high
pressure north of the Arctic coast. Winds also are stronger than
models indicate at 15z over northern interior and West Coast
which is likely result of slightly stronger gradient. We will keep
winds a bit stronger than models indicate through Sat am as a
Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...
a strong low moving north over the West Coast of Alaska Tue and
Wed could bring rain snow blowing snow and strong southeast winds
Tue and Wed. No flooding expected at this time.
Wind Advisory for akz217-akz219-akz220-akz221.
Heavy freezing spray warning for pkz200-pkz210.
Small Craft Advisory for pkz200-pkz210.
Brisk Wind Advisory for pkz220-pkz225.