Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxak69 pafg 201005
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
205 am akdt Wed Sep 20 2017
the 00z models suite initialized well against the 00z surface
analysis. Model spread is reasonable in the short range however
significant spread works its way into the mid range as well as the
long range model output.
Aloft at 500 hpa a longwave trough over the eastern Bering Sea and
western Alaska will drift slowly to the west over the eastern
Bering Sea as a series shortwaves rotate around and through the
longwave trough through Friday. An elongated upper level low
establishes itself over Norton Sound Thursday and will deepen as
it moves south to be near Bristol Bay Friday. The upper level low
continues to move south into the northwest Gulf of Alaska
Saturday. An inverted trough develops to the north of the upper
level low in the Gulf of Alaska and will extend northward along
the West Coast to near Point Hope Saturday. Ridging builds over
eastern Alaska and the Yukon Friday and Saturday.
On the surface a 1014 mb low currently over the yk Delta will
continue to weaken as it moves east into the western interior
today and weakens to a trough as it moves into the central
interior tonight. The low will bring scattered rain showers over
much of the interior today and tonight with snow expected above
2500 feet. Several inches of snow are possible today along the
park Road in Denali National Park. Snow levels will drop to pass
level today in the Alaska Range as well as higher summits in the
interior however little or no snow accumultion is expected in
A 1024 mb high pressure system over the northwest coast will
strengthen to 1030 mb as it moves east to be located over Prudhoe
Bay this evening and strengthen to 1032 mb Friday as the high
stretches from Banks Island to near Barrow.
A 986 mb low 300 nm south of Adak will move east and weaken to
995 mb Thursday night. A low forms over the northern Gulf of
Alaska Thursday evening and will move inland over Prince William
Sound Thursday night. A front rotating around the low will move
north into the southern interior Thursday night and Friday bring
another round of precipitation to much of the interior.
Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none.
Hydrology...rivers continue to run high, but are slowly falling
in most areas. Rivers will remain high through the week.
Small Craft Advisory for pkz210.