Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxak69 pafg 181404
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
604 am akdt Sat Aug 18 2018
a wet pattern will continue over the Brooks range today into
tonight resulting in rising water levels on rivers draining the
north side of the eastern Brooks range. This will be the main
forecast challenge for today. The models are in overall agreement
with the main synoptic scale features through the weekend before
starting to diverge thereafter.
Aloft, at 500 mb, a 541 dam low currently just north of wrangel
island will push to the east today and tonight. A ridge currently
over the Gulf of Alaska will build to the north today, an by
tomorrow afternoon this ridge axis will stretch from the Panhandle
into the southern chuckchi sea. This ridge will persist into
Monday before being pinched in half by a 555 dam low that will
move into the northern Gulf of Alaska Tuesday afternoon and into
the southeastern interior Tuesday night.
Central and eastern interior: we will still have some gusty
southwesterly winds today; however, winds will be lower than
yesterday. As such, I have ended the Wind Advisory for zone 220.
With a ridge building in aloft and at the surface we expect
temperatures to increase today, with the warming trend continuing
for Sunday and Monday. A thermal trough will strengthen late
Sunday just north of the Alaska Range. This will allow for
southerly gap winds to increase through Alaska Range passes. Winds
may approach advisory criteria in zone 226 late Sunday night.
Cooler temperatures and showers are expected as an upper low
pushes from the northern Gulf of Alaska into the southeastern
interior on Tuesday. Some showers will persist into Wednesday.
North Slope and Brooks range: a 998 mb low that is currently just
north of wrangel island will push east across the Arctic Ocean
today into Sunday. Several fronts associated with this low will
will move along the coast today into tonight. This will bring
additional rainfall. Rainfall is expected to come to end on
Sunday. High pressure will build south over the Beaufort Sea
coast Monday. This will likely lead to some issues with lower
stratus and/or fog along the coast east of utqiagvik early next
week. A trough of low pressure will set up on the north side of
the Brooks range Tuesday night. This will bring gusty
northeasterly winds to the Beaufort Sea coast late Tuesday night
West Coast and western interior: high pressure will keep things
relatively quiet today. A front associated with with a low in the
North Pacific will move north, spreading rainfall into the Yukon
Delta later this evening and across much of the West Coast and
western interior on Sunday. A showery pattern will continue for
the area into Tuesday.
Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none.
high will build over the interior today. This will bring a general
warming trend for the central and eastern interior through
Monday. Minimum relative humidity values will generally be lower than yesterday;
however, most locations will see relative humidity values remain above 40% (with
the notable exception being the Tanana Valley east of fairbanks).
Gusty southerly gap winds are expected near Alaska Range passes
late Sunday into early Monday as a Chinook pattern develops. A
front moving to the north will bring increased chances for wetting
rainfall to the West Coast and western interior for Sunday into
Sunday night. A low will move north into the southeastern
interior on Tuesday, bringing cooler temperatures and increased
chances for wetting rainfall to the central and eastern interior.
recent heavy rainfall will lead to high water on rivers draining
the north side of the Brooks range. No flooding is expected;
however, some higher water can be expected with the runoff later
this weekend into next week. For the latest information go to
Small Craft Advisory for pkz220.