Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxak69 pafg 231900
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
1000 am akst Tue Jan 23 2018
The 12z model suite initialized well against the 12z surface
analysis and verified well against the 18z surface analysis. Run
to run continuity as well as from model family to model family
remains good as do relative measures of predictability. A blocked
pattern with features of a Rex block will continue with ridge axis
over the western Bering Sea and wavering strength troughs both
upstream and down stream through next week.
Clear and very cold conditions continue over the western interior
with several locations dropping into the 50s below. Huslia dropped
to 51 below, norutak lake dropped to 53 below and Clear Creek
near Hogatza dropped to a chilly 56 below this morning.
Light snow and clouds dominate the central and eastern interior
with temperatures only dropping into the teens and 20s below.
Nearly 2 inches of snow fell overnight at the Fairbanks National Weather Service office
with similar amounts noted over the central interior under a
persistent band of light snow.
Very cold conditions continue over the western North Slope with
temperatures in the 30s and 40s below inland and in the 20s and
30s below over the coastal areas. Winds continue to be light over
the North Slope with no wind chill issues at this time.
A very cold upper level low currently centered over central
Alaska will drop south and west to be located over Bristol Bay
Thursday afternoon and 150 nm south of Kodiak Island Friday
evening. As the low pulls south increasing easterly flow aloft
will bring the clouds over the central and eastern interior over
the western interior and will help moderate the temperatures in
these areas. Mostly cloudy skies and flurries and light snow will
continue over central and eastern interior as weak waves rotate
around the upper level low. Winds over interior summits will
increase and will need to be monitored for low wind chill values
Friday and Saturday.
Long range models continue to indicate a blocked pattern with
little change expected over the next several days other than an
increase in clouds and moderating temperatures in the western
interior. Temperatures are expected to be at or slightly below
normal through the week. Periods of light snow will continue over
the central and eastern interior as well as the eastern North
Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none.