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fxak69 pafg 230814 
afdafg

Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
1214 am akdt Sat Jun 23 2018

Discussion...

Aloft at 500 mb the upper level 543 dam low over the eastern
Bering Sea will drift to the west over the next several days
then back down to the southern Bering Sea by Tuesday morning.
Models begin to diverge on where the low center will end up
by mid week. Weak southerly flow aloft will dominate most of
northern Alaska through early next week with near normal
temperatures. Several shortwaves will ride up from the Gulf
of Alaska and continue to pump moisture and showers across the
southern interior through the weekend.

Surface...weak low pressure in the Bering Sea will track to
the west on Saturday. A 1017 mb high pressure near Barrow will
shift to the east on Sunday. Weak low pressure will persist
over the interior.

North Slope...a high pressures system over the chukchi and
Beaufort, and Arctic coast will drift slowly east keeping the
central and eastern North Slope under stable onshore flow which
will continue to produce low ceilings and fog over much of the
central and eastern coastal areas and mostly cloudy skies inland.
The heavier precip from the interior has moved north into the
Brooks range this morning. Rain will persist into Saturday
this morning before tapering off by mid afternoon.

West Coast...rain showers will persist over the uplands
of 208 and 217 this morning then taper off this afternoon.
A weak high pressure systems builds north out of the Bering Sea
over the Bering Strait into Monday. Not much in the way of
convection over the next couple of days. A chance of thunderstorms
returns Monday afternoon for much of the western interior.

Interior...another shortwave will move across the southern
interior and produce numerous showers across the Alaska Range.
Isolated thunderstorms will be confined to the southern and
eastern interiors this afternoon and evening and also on Sunday.
A chance of thunderstorms will spread to the north and west
as well on Monday. High temperatures will remain near normal over
the next several days.

Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none.

Fire weather...
isolated thunderstorms will be confined to the southern and
eastern interiors this afternoon and evening and also on Sunday.
A chance of thunderstorms will spread to the north and west as
well on Monday. High temperatures will remain near normal over the
next several days. Relative humidity values will remain elevated Saturday but
begin to drop on Sunday to around 30 percent, however winds and
temperatures are expected to remain red flag criteria.

Hydrology...
warm temperatures aloft will continue over the Brooks range
and combined with rainfall over the last several days and
with additional rainfall expected over the next couple days will
produce significant rises on rivers draining the Brooks range and
in particular The Sag river. Current forecasts bring The Sag river
into action stage over the next few days. We will have to watch
the rivers north of the Brooks range over through the weekend.

&&

Afg watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

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