Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxak69 pafg 121549
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
649 am akst Tue Dec 12 2017
the active southerly flow pattern will continue across northern
Alaska. The will create a variety of weather concerns ranging from
winter weather hazards to high winds. This pattern will also
allow for unseasonably warm temperatures to persist from the
Brooks range south.
Models are in good agreement on the overall pattern continuing.
They disagree in the placement and timing of features embedded in
the pattern like the flow of shortwave troughs, but they are
similar enough to have moderate to high confidence in the
forecasted weather hazards and that the pattern will persist
through the next few days.
Interior...the most recent Chinook event has subsided in the
Alaska Range. However, there will only be a brief reprieve from
high winds along the range with the next Chinook event forecasted
for Wednesday. This next event is anticipated to start in the
early morning hours Wednesday in the Denali area and start later
in the morning for the eastern Alaska Range. Winds should drop off
quickly Wednesday afternoon. Summits north of the Fairbanks
area will also be windy. For the rest of the interior,
temperatures will be well above normal.
In the western interior today and tomorrow another round of
freezing rain is likely in the middle Yukon valley south of
Galena. Up to one quarter of an inch of ice accumulation is
expected and up to 4 inches of snow may fall.
North Slope...southerly flow is affecting the North Slope by
pushing successive frontal systems over the Brooks range and into
the Arctic. There may be a short break in the Barrow area from
winds and blowing snow today after the front currently over the
Arctic coast moves north. The next system is expected to arrive
tonight and produce mainly winds and blowing snow. Current Winter
Storm Warning conditions for the western Arctic coast will
continue until Thursday.
West Coast...active weather is also present along the West Coast.
The winter storm in the Kobuk and Noatak valleys is forecasted to
subside this morning. However, precipitation will continue moving
up from the south, providing another couple inches of snow for
most places. Importantly, freezing rain is also expected along the
coast of the Norton Sound in zones 211 and 212, with up to one
tenth of an inch of accumulation expected. In the lower Yukon
valley and Yukon Delta, heavier freezing precipitation is
anticipated. Up to one quarter of an inch of freezing rain and 4
inches of snow are expected today and tomorrow.
Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none.
high wind watch for akz225-akz226.
Wind Advisory for akz223.
Winter Storm Warning for akz201-akz215-akz216-akz217.
Winter Weather Advisory for akz202-akz203-akz204-akz208-akz211-
Heavy freezing spray warning for pkz210-pkz220.
Gale Warning for pkz210-pkz225-pkz230.