Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxak69 pafg 192218
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
218 PM akdt Fri Oct 19 2018
active weather pattern continues through the weekend and next week
as a series of shortwaves move north through northern Alaska.
Aloft at 500 mb...
a persistent ridge over northwest Canada and eastern Alaska will
hold fast as a series of low pressure systems move north over
northern Alaska bringing the periods of rain, snow and freezing
rain over the weekend and next week.
On the surface...
the first in a series of low pressure systems is currently located
over Prince William Sound. An occluded front stretches fro near
McGrath to Fairbanks to Eagle and continues to move north into
the northern interior where it will stall along the Brooks range
tonight. A wide range of weather is accompanying the front with
snow this morning over eastern interior and now rain this
afternoon over the central interior. Will allow the ongoing winter
weather advisories continue despite lower than expected snowfall
totals and now minimal threat of freezing rain this afternoon with
warmer and slower system. We do expect snow levels to drop later
this evening with a transition to all snow. Expect currently wet
roads over the central interior wet and slushy roads in the
eastern interior to freeze up and produce difficult travel
conditions overnight and into tomorrow morning south of Fairbanks.
Significant snow is still expected north of Fairbanks tonight. Rain
is expected to transition to snow this evening with less than one
inch expected at valley level around Fairbanks and one to two
inches of wet snow accumulation in the hills tonight and Saturday
Expect gusty gap winds to develop Saturday afternoon through the
Alaska Range passes as surface low jumps the Alaska Range in to
the southeastern interior and slowly moves northeast. Winds are
expected to reach advisory criteria over the eastern Alaska Range
but not reach higher advisory criteria over the central Alaska
Range. Winds are expected to diminish some Sunday morning.
A strong shortwave rotating around the next low moving north into
the northern Gulf of Alaska approaches the Alaska Range Sunday
evening and will produce strong winds along the northern foothills
and through the passes of the Alaska Range as a Strong Mountain
wave develops. Winds are expected to stronger with this system
with the western, central and eastern Alaska Range likely seeing
advisory level winds and possibly warning level winds in the
eastern Alaska Range Sunday night and into Monday. Continue to
As the next front moves north into the interior a mix of
precipitation will likely push into the interior again. Another
strong low moves into the northern Gulf of Alaska Tuesday night
and will bring yet another round of mixed precipitation into the
eastern and central interior.
Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none.
Winter Weather Advisory for akz220-akz221-akz222-akz223-akz224.
Heavy freezing spray warning for pkz245.