Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxak69 pafg 262011 cca
Northern Alaska forecast discussion...corrected
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
1211 PM akdt Sat may 26 2018
aloft...at 500 hpa...weak upper level troughing will persist over
much of the state through Monday. A 527 dam low southeast of
Kodiak will continue to track to the east through Sunday. Weak
high pressure will build over the Bering Strait Friday into
Saturday. Also upper level ridging will persist over the Arctic
through the weekend then build to south across the Brooks range
on Monday. A 519 dam upper level low will move into the western
Bering on Tuesday. Weak southerly flow will develop over the
interior on Tuesday and persist into Wednesday. Near normal
temperatures expected for the interior though much of next week.
Surface...high pressure over the Beaufort and chukchi seas
will drift south and east toward the McKenzie Delta through
Sunday. Weak low pressure will persist Over Point hope, Kotzebue
and Norton sounds as well as the interior of Alaska.
A weak ridge of high pressure will build north over the southern
Bering Sea and West Coast while weak low pressure systems persist
over Kotzebue and Norton sounds and the Bering Strait into Sunday.
A weather front will move into the western Bering Sea Monday
afternoon and reach Saint Lawrence Island by Tuesday morning.
Western, central and eastern interior, the stalled front over the
northern position of the interior will move south to lie along a
Chicken to Fairbanks to McGrath line today. This line will be the
Focal Point for numerous showers and scattered wet thunderstorms.
Lifted indicies around minus 2 to 3 c and around 400-700 joules of cape
will likely produce small hail and gusty winds as well as locally
heavy rainfall with these thunderstorms. The front continues to
move south Sunday and will limit thunderstorm activity to the
Kuskokwim valley in the western interior and over the fortymile
country in the eastern interior. The central interior will
stabilize on Sunday but still a potential for scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms from Galena south to McGrath and south
Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none.
scattered to numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will
develop today along a Chicken to Fairbanks, to Tanana, and
southwest to McGrath line. A drying trend will begin on Sunday
and continue into into Tuesday. Minimum relative humidity values
are expected to remain above 30 percent, with excellent overnight
recovery in most locations. For the latest fire weather
information go to www.Weather.Gov/arh/fire.
river levels remain high for the Chatanika, chena, Salcha,
goodpaster, fortymile, Johnson, and Robertson river basins.
Rivers will continue to run high for the next several days.
A Special Weather Statement is still in effect through Monday for
high water levels on rivers and creeks. Slow moving showers and
thunderstorms may still produce locally heavy rain into Saturday.
Additional amounts of rain for the eastern interior around 0.25
inches with locally higher amounts in areas with heavy downpours.
For the latest breakup and flooding information go to
heavy freezing spray warning for pkz230.
Small Craft Advisory for pkz225-pkz230.