Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxak69 pafg 181258 
afdafg

Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
358 am akst Wed Jan 18 2017

Synopsis...
aloft...
a long wave trough over Mainland Alaska and the eastern Bering
Sea will retrograde to over the Bering Sea and western Alaska by
sun and then remain stationary most of next week. This means that
the very cold air now over interior Alaska will begin to moderate
by sun as southerly flow aloft starts to develop.

A 488 dm 500 mb low over the Seward Peninsula will remain
stationary today...then move to Ambler by 3pm Thu...to Prudhoe
Bay by 3pm Fri...then lift northeast. There is a surface low
under this feature that will be mentioned below.

Surface...
temperatures are generally in the 40s below across interior valleys with
a few 50s below and ice fog near towns. Temperatures are in the
teens and 20s below along the Arctic and west coasts.

A 999 mb vertically stacked low over the Seward pen will remain
stationary today...move to Ambler as a 1004 mb low by 3pm Thu...to
Prudhoe Bay as a 1008 mb low by 3pm Fri...then lift northeast.
North winds 15 kt over western CAPES of the West Coast will slowly
decrease today as the low weakens. Winds most other areas have
decreased already. The north winds are causing isolated snow
showers along north facing coasts of the West Coast as it pushes
cold air over open leads.

A weak occluded front stretching from the low to Nuiqsut to
MacKenzie Bay will persist through Thu and then dissipate. There
are low to mid level clouds and flurries associated with this
front from the Brooks range north.

A 1005 mb high over the central interior will persist through Thu.
A low pressure trough along the Gulf of Alaska coast combines with
this to produce north winds 15 kt through Alaska Range passes
through Thu along with cold winds chills.

A low in the southeast Gulf of Alaska will move to Skagway by 3am
Thu...then northeast of Whitehorse by 3pm Thu...then moving
northeast. This will spread snow to the eastern interior east of
Delta Junction and Fort Yukon tonight and Thu. Expect 1 inch of
snow along the alcan border with less amounts to the west.
Temperatures will moderate into the 20s below with the snow.
Fairbanks will be on the western edge of any clouds and so will
see only moderate into the 30s below.

A 983 mb low in the southeast Bering Sea will move east to Bristol
Bay by Fri. An Arctic warm front stretching from this low to
Nunivak Island will move to to Nunivak Island to Holy Cross by 3am
Thu...to Nunivak Island to McGrath by 3pm Thu...to Bethel to
Nenana by 3am Fri...and Dillingham to Livengood by 3pm Fri.
Will see clouds and a chance of snow along with slight moderation
in temperatures with this feature.

&&

Discussion...
models show similar solutions through 3pm Fri. After that time
models differ some on timing and strength of short waves but all
show a similar pattern change to southerly flow aloft sun through
next week.

&&

Afg watches/warnings/advisories...
Wind Chill Advisory for akz203-akz204-akz225-akz226.

Dense fog advisory for akz222.

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations