Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
243 PM akdt Friday Aug 26 2016
relatively quiet weather pattern as there will be a brief ridge of
high pressure builds over the western coast and interior on
Saturday but remains showery for the eastern interior. The ridge
will be brief as the upper level trough over Siberia and multiple
shortwave features from Canada moving into the eastern interior
squash the high pressure by Sunday. Model agreement reasonable
through the weekend with only minor differences Sunday night into
Monday keeping the closed low or weakening into a trough as the
system moves into the Yukon Delta.
Arctic coast and North Slope...areas of fog still linger across
areas from Barter Island east but continue to improve through the
late afternoon. Expect areas of dense fog with quarter mile
ohowever itf visibility for areas possible from Nuiqsut to
deadhorse to Kaktovik. For areas west of Barrow on the Chukchi Sea
coastline, expect overnight stronger offshore flow that will keep
the fog out of the area. However, expect the strong southwest
sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph to
continue tonight through Saturday before subsiding and switching
to northerly flow on Sunday. High pressure will then move from
Chukchi Sea area and east along the Arctic marine water through
Tuesday as the east winds over the Arctic and North Slope resume
by Tuesday and Wednesday.
West Coast and western interior...main concerns will be for
hydrologic as rivers and streams still remain high across the
Noatak and Kobuk rivers. Rainfall will be light with at most a
quarter of an inch expected through Saturday over areas of the
Kobuk and Noatak valleys. Otherwise along the West Coast expect
patchy fog to develop in the typical locations tomorrow morning.
Showers will increase again on Sunday into Monday across much of
the West Coast and western interior as a low over the Bering seas
southwest of St Matthew island begins to lift eastward.
Central and eastern interior...isolated rain showers expected
tonight and will continue through the weekend. Could also expect
some patchy fog to redevelop overnight tonight for central
interior, from Tanana northward to Bettles and west. However, do
not anticipated fog as dense as this morning. Also expected isolated
thunderstorms to develop along the far eastern interior along the
US and Canada border on Saturday afternoon and evening.
Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none.
no concerns for fire weather as minimum relative humidities
expected to be 50 percent or higher on Saturday. There will be
some slight drying in the eastern interior on Sunday but minimum
relative humidity values still remain 45 percent or higher.
Isolated thunderstorm in extreme eastern interior along the US
and Canada border Saturday evening.
main concerns will be continued high water level along rivers and
streams draining from the western Brooks range, particularly the
Noatak and Kobuk rivers. There will be up to a quarter of an inch
rainfall expected through Saturday afternoon. Continue to watch
and monitor the high water level but no flooding has been reported
at this time.
Small Craft Advisory for pkz220-pkz225-pkz230.
Mak Aug 16