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FXAK69 PAFG 241314

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
514 AM AKDT Sat Mar 24 2018



The longwave ridge and trough that have dictated the weather for 
our forecast area this week continue to be the major players in 
our weather pattern. Both features will remain generally in place 
through early next week. The ridge will begin to shift east on 
Monday and allow an upper level low to push into southwest Alaska.
Otherwise, the overall flow in the pattern changes very little.


Central and Eastern Interior...High pressure continues to be the
dominant feature. Winds will increase the next couple days, 
especially on hilltops and areas of higher terrain. This is the 
result of an increased gradient from the interaction of the low 
entering the Bering Sea and high pressure over the Interior. The
gradient will also produce gap winds in the Alaska Range and
induce the Tanana Valley Jet later today. The Tanana Valley Jet
will reach a maximum of 40 mph tonight into tomorrow around Delta
Junction. Temperatures have been tricky the past couple days and 
have taken some focus due to the large diurnal swings we are 
seeing, as is typical for March.

West Coast and Western Interior...Remnants of the front that 
pushed into the West Coast are getting stretched out over the 
Western Interior. Some locations will see flurries out of this 
today. The next system is entering the Bering Sea and will move 
east towards the West Coast. Weather ahead of the system will 
begin to be felt Sunday night into Monday with the low center 
reaching the coast Tuesday morning. Right now it looks to be 
another snow and wind producer for the Y-K Delta, St. Lawrence 
Island and southern Seward Peninsula...but nailing down amounts 
and locations is difficult at this time due to poor model 
performance. More to follow in later discussions.

North slope...Strong easterly winds continue to be an issue. 
Winds have slackened enough to allow the cancellation of the 
winter weather advisories. Winds will elevate again tomorrow night
into Monday morning, so some snow may start blowing around again.

Models...Models continue to be inconsistent. Past 48hrs they are
not in agreement with the placement of major weather features,
which is not that far in the future. For the low entering in the
Bering Sea, models are doing a little better with their agreement
on its track. All major models now have the low progressing up 
the West Coast into Norton Sound, instead of being split between 
that and a more southerly track as they were yesterday. Timing is 
still off between them with the NAM being more aggressive, 
bringing the low in faster. Due to the poor performance of the 
NAM lately with West Coast storms, the inclination is to go with 
the slower movement of ECMWF or the GFS, which is splitting the 
difference between the two. High temperatures in the Interior have
also been difficult for models to resolve the past couple days, 
as it is the time of year of big diurnal swings which they 
historically have difficulty handling. So not a lot of confidence 
in them in general right now, especially past 48hrs.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.


Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ235-PKZ240-

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