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FXAK69 PAFG 221414 AAA
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
614 AM AKDT Mon May 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The models initialize well and are in good agreement in the short
term. An active pattern is expected for the upcoming week as 
several systems move across the state. 

Aloft, at 500 hpa, a 536 dam low currently situated near 
Glennallen will move to near Eagle by this afternoon continuing 
off to the northeast. A 523 dam low in the Chukchi Sea north of 
Point Lay will remain roughly stationary today before moving off 
to the northeast on Tuesday. A 514 dam low just east of the 
Kamchatka Peninsula will push eastward over the next few days. 
This low will push to just south of St. Lawrence Island by 
Wednesday morning and will be over the west coast of Alaska by 
early Thursday. This will bring much colder air aloft to western 
Alaska as it approaches. 

At the surface, A 998 mb low currently situated over Fairbanks 
will track northward today and will be over Bettles by this 
afternoon. 

Central and Eastern Interior: Showers associated with the low are
expected today across the Interior, with the heaviest 
precipitation falling right near the low center as it moves north.
Some areas north of Fairbanks could see a quarter to a half an 
inch of rain today. Some morning snow mixing with rain is possible
along the Denali Park Road in places such as the Eielson Visitor 
Center; however, any snow accumulation this morning along the park
road will be generally under an inch. Gusty southerly winds
expected today in the Eastern Alaska Range. A wind advisory has
been issued though this afternoon. Winds will die down the passes
this evening as the wind direction changes to become more
southwesterly. Cloud cover today will help to limit the potential
for thunderstorms today across much of the Interior. Scattered 
showers will be seen across the Interior on Tuesday. A weather 
front associated with a low in the Bering Sea will push across the
Interior Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. The models disagree 
on some of the details; however, it looks like there is the 
potential for a good soaking rain, particularly for areas west of 
Fairbanks. This system will likely bring a couple of inches of 
snow to areas along the park road in Denali National Park, such as
the Eielson Visitor Center. The cloudy skies and unsettled 
conditions across the Interior will help to keep high temperatures
below normal this week. 

West Coast and Western Interior: A strong upper level low pushing
eastward bring cold air aloft to western Alaska this week. This
will cause snow levels in the western half of the state to drop
significantly. By Wednesday snow levels will drop below 1000 feet
for some areas on the coast as well as on the Seward Peninsula. A
series of fronts will move around the low Tuesday and Wednesday
bringing precipitation to most of the West Coast and Western
Interior. The models differ some in QPF values as well as
exact placement of the heaviest precipitation; however, current
thinking is that many locations in the Western Interior could see
a quarter to a half inch of rain on Wednesday. Unsettled and
showery conditions will persist through the remainder of the week
as the upper level low remains parked over the Bering Sea. Below 
normal maximum temperatures are expected this week

North Slope and Brooks Range: Some light snow showers today,
particularly west of Barrow. Chances for snow increase later in
the week particularly on Wednesday. There is the potential for
some decent accumulations in the higher elevations of the Brooks
Range with lesser accumulations in the passes; however, the models
differ on the details. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A generally wet pattern is expected this week for most of northern
Alaska. This will limit fire weather concerns.  

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No known river issues at this time. North Slope starting to see
meltwater moving down rivers but seems to be contained within 
riverbeds at this time and lacking a rapid warm up in the near
future expect this to remain the same. 

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ223-AKZ226.
&&

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