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FXAK69 PAFG 172252

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
252 PM AKDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Active weather is expected along the Arctic Coast as a low dives
south tonight. This will bring strong winds, snow and blowing snow
as well as some concerns for high surf. The models are in overall
good agreement in the short term; however, there are some small 
differences between the models in the handling the placement of 
the low that will move south tonight into the Arctic Coast. Will 
utilize the NAM in the short term to better resolve the winds on 
the Arctic Coast. 

Aloft, at 500 mb, a 493 dam low 400 NM NE of Demarcation Point
will move to 350 NM NE of Barrow by 10 AM Wednesday and to 50 NM N
of Barrow by 10 AM Thursday. The low will continue to dive to the southwest
and sit over the Kotzebue Sound region by Friday morning and by 
Saturday will move over the Yukon Delta where it will persist into

At the surface, a 992 mb low 60 NM north of Barrow will move to 
Atqasuk as a 993 mb low by 4am Wed, then quasi stationary through 
4pm Wed as a 999 mb low, and moving to near Kotzebue as a 996 mb 
low by 4pm Thu.

North Slope and Brooks Range: Snow is expected as the low drops 
down tonight. The cold air aloft combined with comparatively warm
ocean waters will result in relatively unstable conditions, 
resulting in the potential for good snowfall rates tonight, 
particularly from Barrow west where we have more northerly surface
winds. Winds will increase tonight with the strongest winds 
expected early tomorrow morning along the coast from Wainwright to
Barrow as the low moves inland. The snow combined with the winds 
will cause visibility to be reduced at times. Winter weather 
advisories for snow and blowing snow are out for zones 201, 202 
and 205 for tonight into tomorrow. These advisories look to be in 
good shape so not planning any modifications. High surf advisories
are out for zones 201 and 202. Strong northerly winds late 
tonight into early tomorrow morning will result in high surf in 
zones 201 and 202. This good news with this event is that it is 
relatively quick moving which should limit the potential for 
coastal flooding. Winds will decrease Wednesday evening. Light 
snow showers are expected to persist along the coast tomorrow 
night into Friday. Another round of gusty winds Thursday night 
into Friday; however, the models differ some on the exact details 
of this in terms of timing. With the official forecast we went 
with the NAM.

Central and Eastern Interior: A shortwave trough associated with
the low will move south through the Interior tomorrow. This will
bring a quick 1 to 2 inches of snow as it moves through. After the
main forcing associated with the trough moves through tomorrow,
there will still be a some showers around, mainly south and east
of Fairbanks. A general cooling trend is expected over the next
few days. 

West coast and western Interior: As the low moves southward expect
showers to develop. Between 2 to 5 inches of snow is possible
between now and Thursday morning with the highest amounts expected
right along the coast due to unstable conditions resulting from 
the cold air aloft combined with the relatively warm ocean 

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Northerly winds could 
bring some high surf and/or coastal flooding concerns to the 
northern Seward Peninsula Coast Thursday night into Friday.


High Surf Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ204-AKZ205.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ240-PKZ245-PKZ245.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

Gale Warning for PKZ235.

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