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000 
FXAK69 PAFG 162252
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
152 PM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridge over the Eastern Arctic Coast will move
back into Canada by this evening. 502 dam low over Nunivak Island 
this afternoon will weaken to 512 dam as it moves across the 
Interior on Sunday. The trough will continue to slowly move east 
to be over the Alcan border by Monday morning. Ridging will build 
over the west coast ahead of a strong front which will develop 
over the Bering sea by Monday morning. A 485 dam low will move 
into the Western Bering Sea by Sunday morning and to the western 
Gulf of Anadyr by Tuesday morning at 493 dam. A strong shortwave 
associated with the low will move to the Eastern Bering Sea by 
Monday afternoon, and over the West Coast by Tuesday morning. 
Moist southwest flow aloft will remain over much of the state 
through Wednesday.

Surface...A 973 mb low over Nunivak Island will move to 
Kodiak by Sun morning, while a 997 mb low develops over Kotzebue 
Sound. A 945 mb low will move to the Western Bering Sea Sun 
morning with a weather front moving to the Central Bering Sea and 
Central Aleutians by Sun night. The low will move E in the 
Northern Bering Sea and the front will move to the West Coast by 
Mon afternoon.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Cloudy, light snow or flurries, 
fog, Blowing snow, and persistent winds of 20 to 30 mph will 
continue through Sunday. Winds will diminish a bit Sunday to 10 
to 20 mph, and the blowing snow will diminish as the winds come 
down and the falling snow tapers off. Temperatures will continue 
to cool.

West Coast and Western Interior...Snow showers tapering off around
the Yukon Delta as the 973 mb low near Nunivak Island moves to 
the south tonight. Temperatures cooling through Monday morning. 
The next weather system will be moving to the West Coast and St 
Lawrence Island Monday and it will be quite messy with models 
currently indicating snowfall of 6 to 12 inches, freezing rain in 
the lower Yukon Delta and on St Lawrence Island, and winds gusting
to 60 mph on St Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait Coast. Local
gusts to 70 mph along the Bering strait on Monday. Winter storm 
watches have been issued for zones 211 213 and for the Yukon 
Delta. Watches or warnings will likely be issued for northern 
and inland zones tomorrow. Strong southerly winds and precip will
ramp up Monday morning and continue into Tuesday morning. Snow 
will then spread inland on Tuesday. Southerly winds will continue 
for the west coast through the week.

Central and Eastern Interior...Light snow around the interior 
will taper off as a decaying front moves to the south slopes of 
the Brooks Range by this evening. Another chance of snow Sunday 
for the Middle Tanana Valley as a weak low moves east across the 
area. Expecting light amounts of snow. Temperatures will continue 
to cool. A strong weather front will move into the interior 
Tuesday and Wednesday that could produce 3 to 6 inches of snow. 

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Strong south winds moving
to the West Coast Monday may impact the area. There is some
potential for a minor ice push on the south facing coastal areas.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch for AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

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