Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

000 
FXAK69 PAFG 272225
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
225 PM AKDT Sun May 27 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Aloft...At 500 hpa...A 529 dam low near Southeast Alaska
will remain in place and weaken through Monday. Upper level 
ridging will persist over the Arctic through the weekend then 
build to south across the brooks range on Monday and Tuesday.
A weak 540 dam low over the Yukon will trak near Eagle by
Tuesday then undercut the ridge and move to the north on
Wednesday. A 519 dam upper level low will move into the western 
Bering on Tuesday. Weak southerly flow will develop over the 
Interior on Tuesday and persist into Wednesday. Near normal 
temperatures expected for the Interior though much of next week.

Surface...High pressure over the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas will 
continue to drift slowly south and east toward the McKenzie Delta 
through Tuesday. A frontal boundary ahead of a 982 low over the 
central Bering Sea will swing northeast out of the eastern Bering 
Sea into the lower YK Delta late Monday night and Tuesday morning.

Western, central and eastern interior...The central interior will
begin to dry out today as a cool stable airmass pushes south to 
near the Alaska Range this afternoon capping thunderstorm 
activity. Showers and thunderstorm activity will be limited to the
Kuskokwim Valley in the Western Interior and over southern  
Fortymile Country in the eastern interior through Monday evening.
Shortwaves aloft will begin to enhance shower activity over the 
Western Interior and Central Interior Tuesday and Wednesday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening mainly over the western Interior from Galena south 
and near Northway. Similar thunderstorm activity on Monday. A 
drying and slow warming period will begin today over the interior 
with minimum relative humidity levels in the lower 40s to upper 
30s expected today over the western interior. Minimum relative 
humidity around 30 percent in the central and eastern interior 
today and in the upper 20s on Monday. Winds are expected to remain
light over all of the interior through Monday. Temperatures will 
warm from the upper 50s and lower 60s today into the mid and upper
60s by Tuesday. For the latest Fire Weather information go to 
www.weather.gov/arh/fire.

HYDROLOGY...
River levels remain high for the Chatanika, Chena, Salcha, 
Goodpaster, Fortymile, Johnson, and Robertson River Basins.
Rivers will continue to run high for the next several days.
A special weather statement is still in effect through Tuesday 
for high water levels on rivers and creeks.  For the latest 
breakup and flooding information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations