Scientific Forecaster Discussion
000 FXAK69 PAFG 272225 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 225 PM AKDT Sun May 27 2018 .DISCUSSION... Aloft...At 500 hpa...A 529 dam low near Southeast Alaska will remain in place and weaken through Monday. Upper level ridging will persist over the Arctic through the weekend then build to south across the brooks range on Monday and Tuesday. A weak 540 dam low over the Yukon will trak near Eagle by Tuesday then undercut the ridge and move to the north on Wednesday. A 519 dam upper level low will move into the western Bering on Tuesday. Weak southerly flow will develop over the Interior on Tuesday and persist into Wednesday. Near normal temperatures expected for the Interior though much of next week. Surface...High pressure over the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas will continue to drift slowly south and east toward the McKenzie Delta through Tuesday. A frontal boundary ahead of a 982 low over the central Bering Sea will swing northeast out of the eastern Bering Sea into the lower YK Delta late Monday night and Tuesday morning. Western, central and eastern interior...The central interior will begin to dry out today as a cool stable airmass pushes south to near the Alaska Range this afternoon capping thunderstorm activity. Showers and thunderstorm activity will be limited to the Kuskokwim Valley in the Western Interior and over southern Fortymile Country in the eastern interior through Monday evening. Shortwaves aloft will begin to enhance shower activity over the Western Interior and Central Interior Tuesday and Wednesday. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. FIRE WEATHER... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening mainly over the western Interior from Galena south and near Northway. Similar thunderstorm activity on Monday. A drying and slow warming period will begin today over the interior with minimum relative humidity levels in the lower 40s to upper 30s expected today over the western interior. Minimum relative humidity around 30 percent in the central and eastern interior today and in the upper 20s on Monday. Winds are expected to remain light over all of the interior through Monday. Temperatures will warm from the upper 50s and lower 60s today into the mid and upper 60s by Tuesday. For the latest Fire Weather information go to www.weather.gov/arh/fire. HYDROLOGY... River levels remain high for the Chatanika, Chena, Salcha, Goodpaster, Fortymile, Johnson, and Robertson River Basins. Rivers will continue to run high for the next several days. A special weather statement is still in effect through Tuesday for high water levels on rivers and creeks. For the latest breakup and flooding information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None.