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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia
135 am EDT Thursday Aug 25 2016

high pressure is expected to dominate the overall weather pattern
through the upcoming weekend into early next week. Warmer and more
humid conditions return Thursday into the weekend.


Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
sfc high pressure axis is currently draped across the region from
the Delmarva into upstate SC. Mainly clear conditions exist
areawide, except for a little more dense cirrus across southern Virginia
and interior NE NC. Clouds will continue to dissipate through the
evening hours with clear/mainly conditions overnight. Lows temps
generally in the low-mid 60s (upper 60s immediate coast).


Short term /6 am this morning through 6 PM Friday/...
high pressure axis shifts east of the mid Atlantic coast by Thu
aftn...allowing temps and dewpoints to increase ahead of a weak
cold front crossing the Ohio Valley. Highs 86-91f inland and in
the mid-upper 80s immediate coast as onshore winds become more
southerly. Dewpoints creep up into the mid-upper 60s, which will
make the ambient air feel more muggy.

The weak cold front is anticipated to move through the area Fri
aftn/evening. Temps warm into the low-mid 90s with dewpoints
around 70f. As a result, heat index values will creep into the
low 100s, however heat advisory criteria (104-109f) is not
anticipated at this time. Expect isolated to widely scattered
showers/storms to develop along the frontal boundary axis Fri
aftn/evening... especially given the amount of cumulus
development/coverage over the past few days (i.E. More than model
solutions) and the anticipated influx of moisture/humidity during
this timeframe. Although pwats are anticipated to reach
2.00 inches, deep moisture and lift will be fairly limited.
Therefore, isolated strong wind gusts are the main impacts
expected with storms attm. Any showers/storms that develop should
gradually dissipate Fri evening as the front nears the coast due
to loss of daytime heating/instability.


Long term /Friday night through Wednesday/...
the extended still looks generally dry through next Wednesday as the
upper ridging persists across the eastern half of the U.S. This
will keep the upper jet displaced well north and west of the area
allowing for dry and hot conditions to persist across southeast Virginia and NE
NC. A stray shower or storm moving off the mountains and into the
Piedmont, or developing off the sea breeze near the coast, can not
be ruled out over the weekend given the hot/humid conditions.
However, given the lack of any upper support and the very dry
anticendent airmass will opt for a dry forecast at this time.

Will maintain the slight chance pops for Tuesday into Wed as the GFS
and the European model (ecmwf) suggest that the upper ridge will displace to the
south allowing stronger west-northwest flow aloft to move into the middle
Atlantic. This may open the door for a few storms during the
afternoons/evenings as a weakening front approaches from the north.
However, again at this time the chances look pretty low.

Back to true Summer time conditions at least temperature wise as
readings during the day will be right back into the low-mid 90s with
lows only in the 70s. It will be much more humid as well as compared
to the early part of this week.


Aviation /06z Thursday through Monday/...
a ridge of high pressure has located over the southeast local area
early this morning. The result is a light southerly flow inland,
but calm winds near the coast. Statistical guidance continues to
indicate some patchy fog at kecg, but confidence is low based on
the dry air mass. Will mention a tempo group from 10-12z.
Otherwise, a mid level deck visible on satellite over the Piedmont
is expected to expand and move south and east, reaching kric
around day break. Guidance indicates the deck to be broken to
locally overcast with decks 4-6k feet above ground level. Thanks to an inversion
aloft, mid level moisture will likely linger through the
afternoon, resulting in scattered to broken cumulus through mid
afternoon. Decks remain 4-6k feet above ground level. Southerly winds all sites
increase to 5 to 10 knots today. High pressure slides farther
offshore tonight with lingering mid level clouds over the region.
Winds light and southerly.

Outlook...a cold front approaches the area Friday. This front is
expected to weaken and move to the north during the weekend.
Otherwise dry weather is expected through Monday.


generally quiet conditions continue. As the high shifts to the
northeast of the area tonight, southerly flow will develop and
increase ahead of a weakening cold front/trough. May see southerly
winds increase to 15 kt on Thu across the waters with waves building
to up to 4 feet across the northern coastal waters. The front stalls
out and dissipates over the waters for the weekend allowing winds to
diminish to less than 15 kt for the weekend. Generally weak winds
through early next week, although swell will be building by mid week
as any swell trains from the tropical systems over the Atlantic
moves westward.


Akq watches/warnings/advisories...


near term...bmd/jdm
short term...bmd
long term...mrd

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