Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kakq 301015
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia
615 am EDT sun Apr 30 2017
Bermuda high pressure prevails off the southeast coast through the
Monday. A frontal boundary along the Eastern Shore will lift back
north as a warm front today. A cold front pushes across the region
Monday night with high pressure returning Tuesday.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
note that all 4 climate sites broke record high min temps for
4/29. See cli section below or rer's.
Latest msas showing a dominate Bermuda high off the sern coast.
A backdoor cold front is currently located along the Virginia/Maryland Line
and may not move much farther south before lifting back north
this afternoon. High res data has completely backed off on any
pcpn with this boundary. Given no echoes on radar, went ahead
and dropped all pops from the Eastern Shore early this morning.
Sunrise special St has developed over some areas expect this to
mix out over the next few hours as the winds pick up.
Partly to mostly sunny and hot as the early season heat wave
continues today. 850 mb temps between 14-16c results in readings
generally between 85-90 west of the Bay. Cooler along the
Eastern Shore given local sea breezes and wind shifts with the
frontal boundary. Highs there 80-85 except remaining in the 70s
at the beaches.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Wednesday/...
mostly clr tonight except becoming pt cldy after midnight across the
Piedmont. Dry as any pcpn stays well west of the fa thru 12z. Lows
65-70 except 60-65 Eastern Shore.
Models continue to slow the eastward movement of the approaching
cold front from the west Monday. Data suggests a dry morning with
pops increasing mainly along and west of the i95 corridor in the
afternoon. Dry along the coast thru 00z Tue. Temps remain well above
normal with highs 80-85 except remaining in the 70s at the beaches.
The cold front crosses the region Monday night and pushes offshore
by 12z Tuesday. Likely pops taper off to chc from northwest-southeast from 06-12z
as drier air arrives from the northwest. Cooler with lows from the upr 50s
northwest to mid 60s southeast.
Storm Prediction Center has included the western most akq zones in a marginal risk late
Monday into Monday nite. Thinking is for isltd severe hail/damaging
winds from storms crossing the mts during the evening hrs. Also
expect some lclly hvy downpours psbl given the juicy airmass as
pw's apprch 1.5 inches.
Low pressure tracks into ern Canada with high pressure building into
the area tues and Wed. A secondary (dry) trof moves north of the
area by 12z Wed. Look for dry and cooler conditions. Highs tues
75-80, cooler at the beaches. Lows Tue night in the lwr 50s-lwr 60s.
Highs Wed in the mid-upr 70s except upr 60s-lwr 70s at the beaches.
Long term /Wednesday night through Saturday/...
a complex system progged toward the end of the week. Low pressure
develops over the deep south Wed then slowly lifts NE along the
applach mts thurs and Fri. Latest models show the system getting
cut off from the main flow and lingering across the region thru
Sat. Meanwhile, this system will be able to tap a good amount
of gom / Atlantic moisture. The associated warm front lifts
north across the area thurs with chc pops all areas. Enough
moisture for likely pops thurs nite and Fri with lingering pops
Fri nite into Sat. Most of the pcpn will be convective in nature
resulting in the possibility of another extended period of
rainfall. Stay tuned. Highs both Thu/Fri in the upr 60s northwest to
low-mid 70s southeast. Lows Thu night mid-upr 50s northwest to lwr 60s southeast.
Highs Sat mid 60s to lwr 70s.
Aviation /12z Sunday through Thursday/...
backdoor cold front located along the Virginia/Maryland Line at 12z and may
stay put this morning before moving back north as a warm front
this afternoon. Sunrise special St btwn 1-2k ft will mix out
over the next few hrs as the south-southwest winds increase. Otw, scattered cumulus
with scattered-broken cirrus expected thru the day. South-southwest winds 10-20 kts.
Outlook: MVFR stratus and visbilities will be possible once
again early Monday morning with a moist airmass in place.
Conditions will briefly return to VFR on Monday before a frontal
boundary crosses the region late in the day. This frontal
boundary will bring the potential for showers and thunderstorms
along with sub-VFR conditions. Dry/VFR conditions are expected
through Wednesday with potentially another system impacting the
broad Bermuda high pres allows for 10-15 kt S/SW flow today, with 1-
2 ft waves over the Bay and 2-3 ft seas over cstl wtrs. Similar
conditions into tonight with seas building to 4 ft. Next cold front
approaches the area Mon, and with a tight pres gradient ahead of the
front, winds increase to 15-25 kt over all wtrs during the day.
Raised headlines over all wtrs, with a gale watch over northern cstl
wtrs and a Small Craft Advisory elsewhere. Gale watch is for 50 percent confidence in
a few hrs of gale gusts, with other areas expected to gust up to 25-
30 kt. Seas build to 6-9 kt over cstl wtrs with 3-4 ft waves over
the Bay. These conditions will last into Mon night until the cold
front crosses the wtrs. Winds/waves/seas decrease into Tue as cold air advection is
weak behind the front, but seas aoa 5 ft may continue through late
Tue. Sub-sca conditions everywhere by Wed.
flood advisory continues in Mecklenburg County, with vdot continuing
to report numerous roads closed in the Kerr dam area, creating ongoing
all 4 climate sites broke record high minimum temps for 4/29.
Ric...73...old record high min was 67 set in 1956
orf...76...old record high min was 66 set in 1981
sby...70...old record high min was 65 set in 1974
ecg...73...old record high min was 67 set in 1981
Record high temps for today 4/30:
ric...93 in 1974
orf...93 in 1888
sby...86 in 1974
ecg...90 in 1974
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 4 am EDT Tuesday for
Small Craft Advisory from 10 am Monday to 7 am EDT Tuesday for
Gale watch from Monday afternoon through late Monday night for