Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kakq 260706
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia
306 am EDT Mon Jun 26 2017
a cold front will cross the area tonight...bringing cooler and
drier weather through midweek. Surface high pressure will push
off the coast Wednesday and Thursday with warmer temperatures
for the latter half of the week.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
weak sfc hi pres slides over the forecast area today. Drier airmass
becoming increasingly established over the local area...W/
dewpoints continuing to lower. Starting out mainly sunny...then
expecting scattered-broken cumulus development (w/ heating and local
seabreezes). Highs mainly in the l-m80s...u70s-around 80f at
Short term /6 PM this evening through Wednesday/...
broad trough aloft sharpens into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley by
tonight...pushing a secondary cold front across the forecast area. Limited
moisture associated W/ this front...though can not rule out an
isolated rain showers...esp on the coastal plain. Lows in the M-u50s inland
to the l-m60s at the coast.
A relatively potent S/W aloft will track across the local area
Tue as the axis of the trough aloft swing to the east coastdrop
across the local area. Despite dry airmass...this system could
prove strong enough to squeeze out isolated/scattered shras/tstms in the
afternoon...esp east of I 95. Will carry 20-30% pops. Highs in the
Sfc high pressure finally builds into/over the region Tue
night-Wed providing dry weather and comfortable conditions
under a mainly clear sky. Lows in the l-m50s inland to the
u50s-l60s at the coast. Highs Wed 80-85f...M-u70s at the
Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
long term period will feature generally dry wx with near to
slightly above normal temps through the period. Sfc high pres
slides offshore Wed night into Thu allowing for S/SW flow to
develop across the mid Atlc and temps to Max out in the mid-upr
80s Thu. Similar conditions into Fri with a mostly sunny sky and
high temps in the upr 80s to lwr 90s. Next chance of rain
arrives Sat/Sat night with an approaching cold front. With this
several days out will cap pops at 30% for now, but may raise
pops for this in future updates if the timing holds.
Aviation /07z Monday through Friday/...
VFR conditions through the 06z taf forecast. Isolated/scattered shras
and high based cigs possible Tue (afternoon) as a secondary cold
front crosses the local area. Otherwise...VFR conditions are
expected for much of the week as sfc hi pres builds over the
benign boating conditions expected the next few days. Winds
remain under 10 kt today with a weak trough of low pressure in
the vicinity. A weak cold front pushes offshore Mon night into
Tue morning, but with weak cold air advection expect north/northwest winds behind the
front only up to 10-15 kt. Sfc high pres returns for Wednesday
leading to aftn sea breezes. Waves over the Bay only 1-2 ft with
seas over the coastal waters 2-3 ft thru Wed. High pressure
slides well off the coast Thursday/Friday with return flow
resulting in S-SW winds increasing to 10-20 kt. Waves 2-3 ft on
the Bay and seas possibly building to 4-5 ft north of Cape