Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
1051 PM EDT Thursday Aug 25 2016
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible on
Friday ahead of a cold front. Fair and warm conditions are
forecast for Saturday into Sunday as high pressure moves across
Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/...
as of 1030 PM latest radar showing scattered showers across
central New York. Latest hrrr showing convection falling apart
overnight. Most cape across the area has drop quited a bit the
last few hours. With calm winds and moisture...fog/mist is
becoming an issue. Have updated forecast to include fog overnight
across the valley areas. Otherwise will continue with low chances
of precipitation overnight and tweak overnight lows a bit.
Previous afd... as is typical for late August,
subtle features will drive the weather. One feature to watch is a
vorticity maxima tracking across lower Michigan late this
afternoon. The rap weakens this feature as it moves east tonight.
Convective models show the bulk of the activity associated with
the vort Max will track into western PA. The hrrr supports chance
pops across most of the County Warning Area mainly later tonight. Instability is
negligible. So have opted to not include thunder.
Temperatures drop to near 70 urban areas with 60s suburban/rural.
Short term /6 am Friday morning through Sunday/...
the leading edge of drier air will be working across the County Warning Area on
Friday. The day will start out humid, but by afternoon drier air
will be working in. Some uptick in instability is noted from late
morning into the afternoon. So, chances of showers and
thunderstorms into the afternoon. Temperatures will be warm to hot
with highs ranging from the upper 80s to low 90s valley locations
to 70s and 80s higher elevations. By the time temperatures reach
peak heating, dew points should be dropping most locales. Peak
heat indices reach the mid to upper 90s in the Mid-Hudson valley.
With the afternoon trend for dew points to be dropping, will not
mention in the severe weather potential statement.
High pressure will be in control Friday night into Saturday night bringing
mostly clear skies. Temperatures will still be above normal for
late August, with dew points somewhat more comfortable, although
above normal for late August.
Another cold front approaches on Sunday bringing an increase in
clouds. Sunday should be dry, with just a chance of some showers
late across the northwest County Warning Area.
Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
the period starts off Sunday night into early Monday with a weak
cold front moving through the region. At this time, forcing,
instability, and moisture look to be rather limited so general
showers and thunderstorms are expected, with the best chances across
the northwest portion of the area closer to the better dynamics
associated with the upper trough axis. The front will most likely
clear the area Monday morning, but in case there is a slight lag in
timing will mention isolated pops through Monday.
Dry and tranquil conditions are then expected Monday night through
Tuesday as high pressure builds into the region. A northwest flow
regime aloft looks to set up during the mid week period, so cannot
rule out a few showers and thunderstorms with a weak disturbance
Tuesday night. Otherwise, it is difficult to time disturbances well
into next week. Will broadbrush slight chance pops from Wednesday
night through Thursday night until timing comes into better focus.
Temperatures look to continue to be above normal for late August
into early September, which continues the trend throughout most of
Aviation /03z Friday through Tuesday/...
a cold front will cross the region early Friday. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the
front into early Friday morning.
With timing uncertain...kept vcsh for shower activity. Have
reduced ceilings and visibilities at kpsf and kgfl to IFR after
midnight. With low level moisture and weak winds...IFR conditions
are possible. Across kalb and kpou...have lowered ceilings and
visibilities to MVFR with low level moisture.
Winds will be out of the south/southwest tonight and decrease to
vrb03kt by midnight across most sites. The wind will shift to the
west/northwest on Friday as a cold front pushes through the
Friday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Saturday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Saturday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Sunday: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers...tsra.
Sunday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...tsra.
Monday: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers...tsra.
Monday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Tuesday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
isolated showers will occur tonight, with scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible ahead of a cold front on Friday. Fair and
warm conditions are forecast for Saturday as high pressure moves
across the area.
Relative humidity recovers to 80-100 percent tonight and Friday night. A slight
drying trend is expected Friday with minimum relative humidity values 45 to 55
South to southwest winds at 5-10 mph tonight shift to west and
northwest at 15 mph or less Friday. Near calm winds are expected Friday
showers and perhaps some thunderstorms are expected tonight into
Friday. Most rainfall amounts should remain a half inch or less,
although locally higher amounts of over 1 inch will be possible in
Dry conditions will return for Saturday into Sunday.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our website.