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fxus61 kaly 221749 
afdaly

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
149 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Synopsis...
high pressure at the surface and aloft will remain parked over
the region through the next several days, providing dry
conditions and continued above normal temperatures. Tropical
Storm Jose will remain nearly stationary south of Cape Cod, and
will gradually weaken over the next few days with no impacts for
eastern New York and western New England. Temperatures could
reach record high levels Sunday into Monday, as the ridge
strengthens overhead.

&&

Near term /through tonight/...
just some intervals of high clouds through the afternoon with a
north breeze. Few changes if any through this afternoon based on
current data and trends. Highs in the 70s to lower 80s.

Tonight, expect very similar conditions to last night, but
perhaps a bit less high clouds and a bit more fog. However, a
light northerly breeze and low humidity will limit the potential
somewhat.

&&

Short term /Saturday through Sunday night/...
this weekend, that anomalous ridge will expand eastward,
becoming centered nearly overhead by Sunday at around 590 dam at
h500. This is 1-2 South Dakota above normal. The warm temps aloft and dry
column will ensure dry conditions. 850 mb temps will increase
to around 16c Saturday (+1 to +2 sd) and possibly close to 20c
(over +2 sd) by Sunday. Some question with respect to how deep
we mix given light northerly flow in the boundary layer, but the
00z kdtx (white lake, mi) sounding did mix to around 850 mb in
The Heart of the upper ridge today. So mid-80s for Saturday,
upper 80s to close to 90 on Sunday for the warm spots. It's
been since June 13 since the last 90 degree day at Albany. See
the climate section below for record high information. In
addition, humidity will creep up with dew points rising into
the upper 50s and lower 60s Saturday, and into the mid to
possibly upper 60s by Sunday. This will allow heat indices to
perhaps feel a couple degrees warmer than the air temp.

Fog is expected in the favored areas both nights given the
increased humidity, clear skies, and calm winds. Low temps in
the low to mid-60s will run some 15 degrees above normal.

&&

Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
extended period of dry and unseasonably warm weather will
continue.

Guidance is in agreement that the strong ridging over the region
will gradually weaken and a trough is expected to move into the
Great Lakes region mid week. Hurricane Maria will be off the East
Coast gradually moving northward. Please refer to the National
Hurricane Center for forecasts on Maria.

Monday is expected to be as hot Sunday with record breaking
heat possible with highs 20 to 25 degrees above normal. Refer to
the climate section for the record highs. Dew points may even
be a degrees or two higher than Sunday with heat indices
forecast to be into the lower 90s up the Hudson River valley
Monday. Temperatures Tuesday are expected to be a couple of
degrees lower than monday; highs in 80s with upper 70s for
elevations above 2000 feet.

Clouds will be on the increase as we head into the middle of
the week and the trough moves into the Great Lakes region and
northeast accompanied by a cold front. The front is expected to
move across the region Wednesday night into Thursday with the
associated surface low passing well to the north. Forcing
appears to be weak so at this time mainly have only slight
chance pops in the forecast. With the passage of the front a
much cooler airmass will be ushered in. However still looking at
above normal temperatures Thursday but only by 5 to 10 degrees.

&&

Aviation /18z Friday through Wednesday/...
high level cirrus clouds rotating around the extreme northwest
periphery of Post-tropical storm Joe moving across the area,
with some stratocu with 3-4 kft based occasionally drifting
across kpsf. Dry air mass in place will lead to mainly VFR
conditions through the 24 hour taf period ending 18z Saturday.
Some light fog may develop at kgfl with possible MVFR vsby, but
dry air in low levels should preclude any thicker/persistent
fog.

Winds through early evening will be northerly around 7-12 kt
with gusts near 20 kt especially at kpou. Winds will become
variable at 5 kt or less later this evening through the rest of
tonight.

Outlook...

Saturday to Tuesday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Wednesday: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers.

&&

Fire weather...
high pressure at the surface and aloft will remain parked over
the region through the next several days, providing dry
conditions and continued above normal temperatures. Tropical
Storm Jose will remain nearly stationary south of Cape Cod, and
will gradually weaken over the next few days with no impacts for
eastern New York and western New England. Temperatures could
reach record high levels Sunday into Monday, as the ridge
strengthens overhead.

Relative humidity values will drop from the 90s this morning to 30-50 percent
this afternoon, lowest west of the Hudson Valley. Warmth and
absolute humidity will increase for the weekend, but relative
humidity will bottom out around 40-50 percent during the
afternoons. Highs in the 80s will be common, possibly near 90 in
the warmest spots on Sunday.

Winds today will be from the north at 5 to 15 mph with some
higher gusts, highest over western New England, the Mid-Hudson
valley, and higher elevations. Winds over the weekend will be
from the north to northwest at 10 mph or less.

&&

Hydrology...
no widespread hydrologic issues are expected through the next
week. An extended stretch of fair and warm weather is forecast
well into next week as high pressure dominates.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs
on our website.

&&

Climate...
record high temperatures will be possible Sunday and Monday.

Here is a list of the current record highs for September 24/25:

Albany ny:
September 24th/sunday: 87 degrees 1961
September 25th/monday: 89 degrees 1970
daily records date back to 1874

Glens Falls ny:
September 24th/sunday: 86 degrees 1961
September 25th/monday: 84 degrees 2007
records date back to 1949

Poughkeepsie ny:
September 24th/sunday: 91 degrees 1959
September 25th/monday: 89 degrees 1970
records date back to 1949, however data is missing
from January 1993 through July 2000.

&&

Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...none.
Massachusetts...none.
Vermont...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...jpv
near term...NAS/Thompson
short term...Thompson
long term...iaa

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