Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbgm 260000
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
800 PM EDT Thu may 25 2017
a low pressure system will continue to impact the region today
and bring the chance for showers over the northeast. Friday,
this surface low, currently located over the Ohio Valley will
move eastward towards Canada and bring the chance for diurnal
showers across region Friday afternoon. The chance for showers
and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast for the
Near term /through Friday night/...
8 PM update... only isolated showers, at best, are dotting
cny/nepa early this evening, as our region remains underneath a
dry slot aloft. However, bands of showers and thunderstorms
continue to develop from the Delmarva region, up into southeast
PA and NJ, tied to a short-wave rotating around the large closed
upper low that is spinning towards the mid-Atlantic states. Some
of our high-resolution guidance is indicating that leftover
remnants of this convection could track into our nepa zones and
the Catskills later this evening. Thus, we'll continue to
advertise a slight uptick in activity for these areas after
10-11 PM, with the potential for some thunder as well.
For most of the region during the night, particularly from the
I-81 corridor westward, any showers should remain isolated in
nature. Given today's rainfall and a moist low-level
environment, areas of fog continue to look like a good bet,
especially during the pre-dawn hours.
Temperatures should remain in the 50s overnight.
Previous discussion... 250 PM EDT update... stacked uppr lvl
low is now located over the Ohio Valley this afternoon and the
trough axis runs into the Carolinas. The attendant sfc low is
now present over central Ohio. The core of heavy precip has almost
pushed out of the County Warning Area and scattered rain showers are now
present over central New York and northeast PA. The dry slot is now
moved well into western NY, and due to such dry air advection,
patchy fog and drizzle is present in the wake of these showers
over central PA. Weak waves will continue to move across the
region this afternoon which will continue to support the chance
for scattered showers over the area.
Dense stratus is present over the region and there may be some
breaks in the deck, however for the most part expect mostly cloudy
skies are expected for the remaining portions of the day and
tonight. Forecasted temps are doing well and should hold steady and
stay in the upper 50s/low 60s as cloud coverage should inhibit too
much diurnal heating.
Tonight, expect patchy fog to develop as copious amounts of low-lvl
moisture will be present in the wake of today's showers. Winds aloft
will weaken as the uppr-lvl low will track to the east, thus expect
mixing over the area to become minimal. Sfc temps will remain in the
low to mid 50s tonight.
Tomorrow the uppr-lvl low will continue to track eastward and northwest
flow aloft will develop over the region. Showers may develop over
the region due to the combination of instability due to diurnal
heating and copious amounts of low-lvl moisture. If showers do
develop, these will be diurnal in nature and will dissipate after
21z. There is a slight chance showers may linger after 00z temps are
forecast to rise into the 60s across the region Saturday afternoon.
Friday night, temps are expected to fall into the uppr 40s to low
Short term /Saturday through Sunday/...
on Saturday models are now showing a mid level short wave
moving through the eastern Great Lakes as a weak surface low
tracks to our south. For this reason introduced chance pops over
The Finger lakes region, central southern tier and northeast
Pennsylvania. Will continue with a dry forecast for the western
Mohawk Valley and Otsego County. Highs will range in the upper
60s to lower 70s.
On Saturday night kept slight chance pops across much of central
New York and northeast Pennsylvania as this wave pulls east. Low
will be in the 50s.
Sunday is not looking as wet as yesterday's model runs. A mid
level short wave in southwest upper level flow will swing
through the region during the afternoon as the surface low
tracks from the Ohio Valley into southern Pennsylvania. Will
continue with likely pops in the central southern tier and
much of northeast Pennsylvania and chance elsewhere. Highs will
once again range from the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
medium range models are in fair agreement during the extended
period indicating a upper level low will slowly track from the
vicinity of Lake Superior northeast into Quebec by Wednesday
with the trough possibly relaxing by Thursday. Overall a very
unsettled period with a chance for showers each day through
Thursday. Sunday night looks to be the wettest period and will
continue with likely pops as surface low pressure moves from
the Ohio Valley northeast into nearby southern Ontario. This is
not expected to be a washout period just very showery with
generally more activity during the day due to diurnal
Temperatures through the period will be near seasonal normals.
Aviation /00z Friday through Tuesday/...
shower activity will be scattered across the terminals through
the overnight hours. MVFR ceilings will hold in place for the
most part, but ceilings will drop to between 700 and 900 feet
between 7z and 15z, with visibility restrictions of 3sm to 6sm.
The most persistent IFR ceilings will be at kbgm and kith.
Light winds will increase out of the northwest at 8 to 12 knots
Friday night...scattered showers with associated restrictions,
especially Friday, as low pressure system exits.
Saturday through early Sunday...mainly VFR.
Midday Sunday through Tuesday...showers and restrictions
likely. Some thunder also possible.