Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbgm 252353
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
753 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017
a storm center along the eastern Seaboard, will bring a period
of rain to most of the area this evening, before weakening and
moving farther out to sea. Wednesday and Thursday look generally
rain-free and warm, with afternoon highs near 70 Wednesday, and
in the seventies to near 80 Thursday. Our next chance of showers
or thunderstorms, will come Thursday night into Friday,
associated with a weak frontal system.
Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/...
330 PM update... the next batch of rain, tied to the closed low
along the mid-Atlantic coast, is coming up through eastern PA
and New Jersey this afternoon. It should affect areas primarily near
and east of the I-81 corridor this evening. Rain should taper
off later tonight, as the upper low begins to fill and drift
farther out to sea.
Tonight will be fairly mild, with overnight lows ranging from
the upper 40s-mid 50s.
Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Friday/...
340 PM update... the coastal disturbance mentioned above will
continue to weaken and drift eastward wendesday. Any lingering
showers in the far eastern zones should be done by 8-9 am, at
However, with low-level moisture trapped underneath a subsidence
inversion, clouds will be slow to depart, especially across the
Poconos and Catskills. By afternoon, though, we expect that most
of the region will see at least partly sunny skies.
Given no cool air source behind the coastal low, temperatures
will be quite mild Wednesday afternoon, reaching the upper 60s-
lower 70s. Lows Wednesday night will only drop into the 50s-near
60, as a S-southeast warm advective flow begins to increase overnight.
Thursday should be a warm day, with southerly winds in place
ahead of a slowly approaching cold front in the Ohio Valley. A
marine-layer type cloud mass could affect our far eastern zones
in the morning (the Pocono plateau and the catskills), but these
clouds should start to break up by/during the afternoon.
Afternoon highs should range from near 70 over the higher
terrain of the Catskills, to the lower 80s in some of Our Lake
Ontario plain locales.
Thursday night and Friday morning, the above referenced cold
front will advance eastward across cny/nepa, but will be
weakening as it does so, with nearly all of the discernible
upper-level energy tracking well north into Canada. An area of
showers, and perhaps a few thunderstorms, entering our western
zones Thursday evening, should have a tendency to diminish with
eastward extent late at night into Friday morning.
Friday afternoon should end up rain-free, with the front moving
off to our east by this time. Given weak thermal advections
behind the boundary, highs should still be solidly in the 70s.
Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
250 PM update...a difficult weekend forecast is setting up in
the medium range models which hinges upon the positioning of a
west-east oriented frontal boundary. The European model (ecmwf) suppresses the
front to our south by Saturday night, while the GFS and Canadian
global models reside furthest to the north and closer to the
New York/PA state border. This means the difference between a
cooler/drier start to the weekend and a slightly milder, but
wetter one. All of the model solutions appear to limit
precipitation on Saturday night as high pressure across Canada
surges south, then Sunday brings a return of the warm front to
our north with more clouds, showers, and even thunderstorms in
Tow. Agreement becomes better early next week that a powerful
cyclone will develop and move through the upper Midwest,
eventually sweeping a strong cold front through our area on
Monday. Tuesday seems to show limited chances for precipitation,
but turning cooler than average.
Due to the higher level of uncertainty associated with this
forecast, there will be varying chances for rain and
thunderstorms all weekend into early next week, although this
may turn out to sound more pessimistic than what reality may
actually bring. There should be plenty of dry times as well as
several hours of wet time as each weather feature translates
through the area.
Took a few degrees off the top of the Max temperature on
Saturday and Sunday, especially northern and eastern zones given
the expected frontal positions. Monday should be quite mild in
the upper 70s, and muggy ahead of the cold front with cooler
50s-60s next Tuesday.
Aviation /00z Wednesday through Sunday/...
730 PM update...
MVFR across all but rme/syr now will become MVFR everywhere by
03z. Rain moving into the taf sites this evening with lowering
ceilings and maybe MVFR vsbys. Rain will continue until around
09z. All sites fall to fuel alternate. Ceilings will lower to
IFR between 8 and 14z at avp/bgm. Elm/ith may also fall to IFR
same time. Gradual improvement starting 15z so that by 21z all
but avp/bgm will be VFR.
East winds at 10 kts this evening drop to 5 to 10 kts overnight.
Wednesday afternoon winds shift to southeast.
Wednesday night: no operational impact. Weather none.
Thursday: operational impacts possible. Chance thunderstorms and rain late.
Thursday night: operational impacts possible. Chance +tsra.
Friday-sunday: operational impacts possible. Chance rain showers/thunderstorms and rain