Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
156 am EDT Sat Oct 1 2016
unsettled weather will continue to be the theme of the forecast
through the weekend as the storm system that has impacted the
region the past few days, continues to influence the weather.
Drier conditions are expected to return early next week.
Near term /through today/...
showers are exiting the northeastern forecast area at this time, while
sprinkles, drizzle, and mist fill in behind the rain. The result
will be a lowering cloud base overnight and little variability in
temperature. We are probably within a degree or two of our lows
area of showers associated with deep southeast flow and
isentropic lift is gradually lifting north across central New York. Once
this area of showers moves north of the area early this evening it
looks like a break of dry weather can be expected for most of the
area later tonight based on mainly dry conditions covering
central and southern PA. Another wave will rotate northward around
the persistent Ohio Valley upper low Saturday bringing an
increasing chance for showers Saturday afternoon into Saturday
evening. Temperatures will only vary by a few degrees this
afternoon through tonight... with lows tonight mainly in the 50s.
Expect only a slow rise in temperature on Saturday with thick
cloud cover and developing showers... with highs in mostly places
near or just above 60.
Short term /tonight through Monday/...
145 PM Friday update...during this period, model consensus
continues to point towards a gradual opening up/lifting out of the
pesky upper low/trough that has been plaguing the region the last
One last round of showers/isolated thunder is expected Sunday, as
the main residual trough axis lifts across the region. Although
widely scattered lingering showers are still possible Monday,
mainly over our eastern zones, we should be trending towards
rain-free weather early next week.
Once again, with no real push of cooler air, temperatures will
continue to average near to above normal for early October, with
highs mostly in the upper 60s-lower 70s.
Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
2 PM Friday update...the early to middle portions of next week
continue to look generally dry, as a progressive upper ridge
translates across the eastern states. Temperatures still look to
average above normal, with highs in the 60s-lower 70s.
At this early Vantage Point, our global models keep Hurricane
Matthew no closer than the southeastern U.S. Coastal waters
through the middle of next week (no impact through this period on
central New York/northeastern pa), with plenty of model
spread/uncertainty on the exact positioning this far out in time.
It will likely take a number of days before we zero in on a higher
confidence track forecast.
Aviation /06z Saturday through Wednesday/...
a few lingering showers are present this morning, but for the most
part, the area should remain dry. Copious amounts of low lvl
moisture is present this morning and will prevail through the
forecast, thus expect mostly cloudy to overcast skies through
period. MVFR ceilings should dominate the region expect for kelm,
kbgm and kavp where ceilings are expected to fall to IFR. Flight
conditions will slowly improve tomorrow afternoon accompanied
with a round of showers. Expect a similar flight conditions
tomorrow evening to what is currently present.
Winds will remain easterly around 5 to 12 knots through the
Saturday night-Sunday...occasional restrictions possible from
lower ceilings and showers.
Monday-Wednesday...mostly VFR. Early morning fog possible at