Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbgm 191743
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
1243 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018
a mainly dry period is forecast through the weekend along with
moderating temperatures. This weekend, high temperatures will
be mostly in the lower to middle 40s. This is about 10 to 15
degrees above average for this time of year.
Near term /through Saturday/...
925 am update...
finessed the grids, utilizing latest rap model 925-850mb layer
relative humidity field to capture shallow stratocumulus
details. Also, highs were lowered slightly especially for the
northern zones where longer period of stratocumulus will hold
back warming/mixing. Also, temperatures in radiational cooling
spots earlier did manage to get lower than had been expected
under the sharp shallow inversion, so for those locations it
will be harder to fully achieve the highs that had been earlier
wide range of temperatures and sky conditions attm. To the
southeast 5 to 15 with light to calm winds and clear skies. In
the rest some wind helping to mix the low levels so 15 to 25
degrees. Winds will increase this morning as a short wave moves
through with some clouds. This will bring up temperatures before
sunrise. High temperatures in the low and mid 30s with warm air
advection in the low levels. Flow GOES to 280 briefly this
morning into early afternoon bringing some flurries to Syracuse
and Utica, and some light snow showers to the tug. Flow shifts
back to the west-southwest this afternoon lifting the lake moisture back
north of Oneida County. Again moisture is shallow, lift is weak,
and the air not cold enough for much more than an inch of snow
Further south it will remain dry with mostly mid clouds. As
usual more clouds to the north and less to the south. Low
temperatures tonight in the 20s with continued waa.
Saturday under a flat upper level ridge. A weak short wave moves
through upstate New York with the low level shifting to be off Lake
Ontario into the Tug Hill plateau again. Some chance of more
light snow showers and flurries. Highs here in the mid and upper
30s. Like today rest of area will remain dry and partly to
mostly sunny. Temperatures still warmer with highs in the low
and mid 40s.
Short term /Saturday night through Monday/...
330 am update...
a quasi-zonal flow aloft with weak ridging at the surface will
keep weather conditions relatively quiet Saturday night and most
of the day Sunday. Heights aloft do not appear to be as high as
previously thought, which also translates to temperatures not
as warm. A weak E-W oriented warm front extending across the srn
Great Lakes from a developing low pressure in the central Continental U.S.
Will help focus moisture and weak lift across the region with
temperatures hovering around the freezing mark. May see very
light freezing drizzle Sunday morning...changing to drizzle
during the daylight hours...and then potentially back to
freezing drizzle Sunday evening, mainly in the Mohawk Valley and
the Catskills. The low pressure system moves in from the west
late Monday night along with a better push of warmer air as
ridging out ahead of the system amplifies. This will act to
change the precip over to all rain during the day Monday.
Rainfall amounts are challenging at this point, but the
generally consensus is around a quarter to three quarters of an
inch...up to as much as 1 inch through Monday night.
Temperatures Sunday will start out in the 20s and lower
30s...but warm into the mid and upper 30s. Temps drop back into
the 20s and lower 30s Sunday night and warm up into the 40s on
Long term /Monday night through Thursday/...
340 am update...
a deep cutoff upper low will be rolling through the srn Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley region Monday night and Tuesday with
generally widespread rain expected Monday night and Tue morning
as much of the region will remain situated in the warm sector
during this time. Will begin to see some snow mix in with the
rain Tuesday afternoon as the cold front pushes through some
time during the afternoon/early evening hours. The precipitation
is expected to become all snow fairly quickly Tuesday night with
winds increasing out of the W/NW behind the front. Should see at
least a brief period of significant lake effect snow downwind/se
of Lake Ontario Tue night into Wednesday with weak low level
shear...a relatively deep mixed layer and modest cold air advection with 850mb
temps around -9 to -13 deg c.
High pressure begins to move in on Thursday with snow showers
tapering off and weather conditions becoming generally quiet.
Temperatures behind the front will remain on the cool side, but
relatively seasonal. Highs in the upper 20s and lower 30s and
lows in the teens and lower 20s.
Aviation /18z Friday through Wednesday/...
brief high end MVFR ceiling will still be intermittently around
krme shortly after 18z, otherwise VFR conditions are expected
for the remainder of today through tonight. A weak wave will
pass through Saturday morning, bringing MVFR ceilings back into
ksyr-krme before 18z Saturday with the other New York terminals
perhaps soon to follow. Ahead of that wave, a west-southwest low level jet
of 40-45 knots will set up to present low level wind shear
tonight though the time window for low level wind shear will be narrower for
ksyr-krme compared to terminals further south. Other than krme,
surface winds will be southwest 8-12 knots this afternoon,
decreasing slightly tonight before veering more westerly 8-12
knots on Saturday. For krme, wind will be variable this
afternoon, then light east-southeast later tonight before
switching westerly mid morning.
Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning...minor ceiling restrictions
possible for the New York terminals.
Sunday afternoon through Sunday night...restrictions become likely
due to increasing clouds, and chance of very light mix or drizzle.
Monday through Tuesday...periods of light rain and restrictions.
Tuesday night through Wednesday...chance of snow showers and
restrictions; best chance ksyr-krme.