Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
415 PM EDT Thursday Jul 28 2016
low pressure developing along the mid-Atlantic coast will spread
showers across northeast Pennsylvania tonight and Friday morning.
Farther north showers will be scattered or isolated. A weak ridge
of high pressure will build across the area later Friday into
Saturday with dry weather, the low pressure will spread some
showers back across the area on Saturday night and Sunday.
Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/...
a wave of low pressure will track up the Ohio Valley this evening,
with low pressure developing along the East Coast near New Jersey
late tonight. A large area of showers over central and southern PA
will spread east-northeast and will effect the Poconos and points
southward this evening. Meanwhile farther to the north any shower
activity will be scattered or isolated this evening, with dry
weather from The Finger lakes northward overnight. There will be
the potential for some localized heavy rain with any stronger
convective showers that develop over the Poconos this evening,
then with a period of steadier and heavier rain late tonight into
Friday morning as low pressure moves northeast along the mid-
Atlantic coast. Have issued a Flood Watch for Luzerne County east
across the Poconos to cover for heavy rain potential. Impacts will
mainly be over poor drainage areas, with flooding on streams,
creeks and major river systems not expected. Rain should taper off
to scattered showers by Friday afternoon.
Short term /6 am Friday morning through Sunday night/...
scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms will linger across the
area Friday afternoon. Storms are not expected to be severe with
only modest instability and weak wind fields keeping storms
disorganized. Dry weather will return to the entire area Friday
morning, then the chance of showers will increase again on
Saturday as another wave approaches from the Ohio Valley.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop Saturday night
and continue through Sunday as an upper level trough slowly
progresses east across the eastern Great Lakes to the mid-
Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
upper-level ridging will be building east across the area during
this period. Scattered showers may linger into Monday in
association with a weak upper trough over the eastern U.S., Then
conditions should trend warmer and dryer Tuesday into Thursday as
the ridge builds east across the area.
Aviation /20z Thursday through Tuesday/...
isolated showers will develop across the area this afternoon but
coverage will not be high enough to include in the tafs through
22z. Starting at 22z we will include a shower in the avp taf as
showers will be increasing from the southwest. Elsewhere will keep
the forecast dry through 08z, then from 08z to 12z there could be
a few showers as far north and west as bgm and Elm as low pressure
moves off the New Jersey coast.
Winds will be less than 10 kts through tonight, then north-
northeast increasing to around 10 kts on Friday.
Fri-Friday night...scattered to isolated showers and
thunderstorms. Mostly VFR but brief restrictions in any
Saturday night through Sunday night...scattered to isolated showers
and thunderstorms. Mostly VFR but brief restrictions in any
PA...Flash Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Friday
morning for paz044-047-048-072.