Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbgm 232342
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
742 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017
strong high pressure will remain over the region into early next
week with mostly sunny days and very warm temperatures. A more
seasonal airmass, along with rain showers, will arrive later
Near term /through Sunday night/...
740 PM EDT update...
no significant changes were made to the previous forecast as
high pressure and clear skies dominate the forecast. Adjusted
temps to match current trends. The previous forecast is in great
shape. For more information on the forecast, please read the
previous forecast discussion below.
Previous forecast discussion...
a strong area of high pressure will remain anchored over the
area during this period. Clear skies are expected overnight with
valley fog in the river basins. In the lake plain and western
Mohawk Valley stratus/fog may also develop toward sunrise. This
has occurred the past several nights and northwest flow just off
the deck may lead to low level saturation from Lake Ontario.
Overnight lows will range in the middle 50s to lower 60s.
Another sunny day is in store for Sunday along with temperatures
near record highs. Temperatures at 850mb will be 2-3 Standard
deviations above normal. Highs will range in the middle to upper
80s. For now forecasting highs at syr/bgm/avp just below the
records of 90/88/90 respectively.
Sunday night will be mainly clear with valley fog once again.
Lows will be slightly milder generally upper 50s to lower 60s.
Short term /Monday through Tuesday/...
the ridge of high pressure will hold strong across the
region through Monday before slowly beginning to weaken Tuesday.
For Monday, 850 mb temps around 18 c will continue to support
high temperatures in the mid to high 80s under partly to mostly
sunny skies. Also, the continuing slow/subtle advection of low
level moisture into the area will result in dew points well into
the 60s so it will feel pretty humid.
Monday night, very similar conditions to recent overnights with
quiet weather but overnight/early morning valley fog expected
once again. Lows will be mainly in the low to mid 60s.
For Tuesday, as the ridge slowly starts to weaken there will be
some increase in mid and high cloudiness under otherwise
abundant sun due to both a front approaching from the west and
also the far northern cirrus shield from Maria. This may also
knock temps down a couple degrees from Monday but otherwise
another very warm, humid, and rain free day with highs in the
Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
in the big picture, high pressure with upper level ridging and
dry weather will give way to an upper level trough in the east
as the pattern changes. In terms of details, Tuesday night into
Wednesday the ridge will continue to break down as a cold front
approaches from the north and west and Maria moves north to a
point somewhere off the Carolina coast. This will result in a
chance of showers and even a few thunderstorms by Wednesday
afternoon into the evening. Ahead of the front, highs Wednesday
look to be at least in the low to mid 80s. The cold front will
move through Wednesday night and behind this feature
temperatures will drop back to near seasonal Thursday through
Friday with mainly dry conditions. Early indications are for the
next system to bring the area a chance of showers around the
Friday night into Saturday time frame.
Aviation /00z Sunday through Thursday/...
valley fog is expected again overnight with possibly stratus
impacting the lake plain and the western Mohawk Valley with
light northwest flow just off the deck resulting in low level
saturation from Lake Ontario. At kelm, conditions will be near
Airport minimums from 09z-12z with improvement to VFR by 13z.
At kith, MVFR conditions are likely between 09z-13z with IFR
possible. At kbgm, MVFR conditions are possible from 10z-12z as
the fog lifts out of the valley. At ksyr/krme, a low confidence
forecast with stratus development but possibly MVFR/IFR
conditions between 10z-13z. At kavp, no restrictions are
forecast. Outside of the fog conditions will be VFR basically
Winds will be light and variable tonight into Sunday morning
then northwest on Sunday around 5 knots.
Sunday night through Tuesday...VFR except for fog possible each
late night/early morning, especially at kelm but for other
terminals as well at times.
Wednesday/Thursday...restrictions possible in scattered