Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
414 am EDT Wednesday Aug 24 2016
dry weather expected through tonight before rain showers move in
Thursday morning and a second around of showers and storms later in
the day Thursday. High pressure builds back in for most of the
weekend with quiet weather until Sunday night when more showers and
storms are possible into Monday.
Near term /through tonight/...
415 am update...
Main concerns in the near term remain focused around the patchy
valley fog this morning and the initial onset of rain showers into
The Finger lakes late tonight/early Thursday morning.
High pressure moving ewd off the mid-Atlantic coast and rising
heights aloft will continue to influence much of central New York and NE
PA today and keep weather conditions quiet. Sufficient radiational
cooling, especially in the valleys this morning has allowed for
another round of valley fog, which is expected to lift and mix out
around 8-9 am this morning. Much of the day will be mostly sunny
with highs rising into the mid to upper 80s.
Humidity values will be noticeably higher today with dew points
climbing into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Cloud cover will increase
later in the day and this evening as a lead short wave ahead of the
main cold front pushes ewd across the eastern Great Lakes tonight.
This pre-frontal trough will act to trigger light rain showers late
tonight and early Thursday morning through wrn New York and into the wrn
Short term /Thursday through Friday night/...
415 am update...
The rain showers and possibly a few isolated weak storms will track
quickly to the east late Thursday morning along the lead short wave.
Conditions behind the S/W will become more unstable Thursday
afternoon with a persistent swly flow ushering in an abundant supply
of deep layer moisture and steep low level lapse rates. Showers will
evolve/develop into thunderstorms into Thursday evening along and
ahead of a ewd progressing cold front. Rainfall amounts will be
fairly light...up to a quarter to half inch. The front is expected
to push ewd into the Catskills Thursday night with lingering rain
showers east of I-81 into Friday morning. A drier air mass builds in
behind the departing cold front during the day Friday as showers end
and skies go from partly/mostly cloudy to mostly clear Friday night.
Temperatures remain warm with highs topping out in the 80s thurs and
Fri. Overnight lows are expected to only fall into the mid to upper
60s Thursday night...but into the upper 50s and lower 60s Friday
night behind the front.
Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
3 PM update...
No major changes to the long term forecast. High pressure for
Friday night to Sunday with dry weather. Seasonable temperatures
Friday night to Saturday night, rise Sunday ahead of the next
system. Sunday highs in the low and mid 80s.
Starting Sunday night a chance of showers and maybe thunderstorms
with another weak cold front and upper level trough. GFS faster
than Euro. GFS also faster pushing it south out of County Warning Area but
probably will linger. This period on edge of a broad upper level
trough with a fast westerly flow. East to west cold front will
make slow progress south. No strong forcing so flooding not a
Aviation /08z Wednesday through Sunday/...
high pressure at the surface will keep the region dry for the
next 24 hours. IFR valley fog is expected to develop this morning
and impact kelm through 13z. Another diurnal cu field will develop
over the region during the afternoon as low lvl moisture
continues to linger. The next storm system to impact the region
will start to push into the region late Wed night. This
approaching system will result in an increase cloud coverage by
03z thurs. Showers are expected to impact the region near 12z
Winds will be light and variable through sunrise, then increase
from the S/SW around 5 to 10 knots through the afternoon. Winds
will then remain out of the south around 3-8 knots through
Wednesday night through Friday... mostly VFR, but some restrictions
are possible in showers/storms late Thursday into early Friday as
a frontal system passes.
Saturday through Sunday...VFR.