Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbgm 281045
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
645 am EDT Fri Jul 28 2017
today through the weekend looks mostly rain free, as high
pressure builds down from Canada into the Great Lakes. The one
exception will be parts of northeast Pennsylvania, where showers
and a few thunderstorms will occur this afternoon into
Saturday, across areas mainly south of Wilkes Barre and
Scranton, on the outer edges of a rare Summer coastal storm
Near term /through Saturday/...
6 am update...
showers finally giving up in northern Wayne County. Patchy dense
fog continues. Temperatures and dewpoints adjusted. Few other
4 am update...
a west to east band of showers is slowly moving south into the
northern tier of PA. Some places have received an inch of rain.
This shows no sign yet of weakening so extended pops until 10z.
In addition very moist low levels and dense fog is in most river
valleys in central New York. Most lows will be in the low 60s.
The big story this period continues to be the surface low moving
east through the Middle Atlantic States then hugging the coast
Saturday. This is captured by a short wave dropping southeast to
form a stacked low. This will cause the surface low to slow and
intensify. The models continue to back off on the northern
extent of the heavy rain. Our far south may get half an inch
while Scranton to Monticello will get less than a tenth of an
inch. The northern extent will be the northern tier of PA.
Thunderstorms will probably be limited to Luzerne and Pike
counties this afternoon and evening. The rest of the time and
area will be just showers. Showers will pull out Saturday.
Central New York will be dry today into Saturday. High temperatures
today mostly mid and upper 70s. Lows mid and upper 50s most of
the area and low 60s in the far southeast. With cloud cover most
of the valley fog will be light. Saturday increasing sunshine
with highs in the low and mid 70s.
Short term /Saturday night through Sunday night/...
Saturday night into Sunday, vertically stacked system near
Delmarva will gradually shift off the coast and lift northeast.
The European model (ecmwf) continues to keep this system closest to the coast but
is an outlier compared to the rest of the guidance. Will
continue to advertise just slight chance pops Saturday night in
the extreme southeast forecast area and dry elsewhere. Surface
high pressure builds into the region Sunday and Sunday night
with mainly clear skies expected through the period. Highs on
Sunday will range in the middle to upper 70s.
Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
the persistent upper level trough that has been over the
northeast this Summer will relax during the early part of the
extended period and with surface high pressure in the vicinity
conditions will remain dry through Monday night. The next upper
level trough and associated surface cold front will approach the
region during the mid week period. Will continue with low chance
pops on Tuesday due primarily to diurnal instability. Wednesday
into Thursday the chance for convection increases as the surface
cold front makes its way through the northeast. Temperatures
through the period will be close to seasonal normals.
Aviation /12z Friday through Tuesday/...
645 am update...
Dense fog and IFR conditions continue at most New York sites except
bgm which remains VFR on the hill. Avp also VFR. New York sites will
become VFR by 14z this morning.
All sites to be VFR late morning through tonight. Showers should
remain south of avp from this afternoon through tonight. With
dry advection at the surface and clouds aloft valley fog will be
light at worst in New York.
Light northeast winds or light and variable early. Today into
tonight northeast winds at 4 to 8 kts.
Saturday-Tuesday...outside of early morning fog (mostly kelm),