Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
630 am EDT Sat Jul 23 2016

hot and humid conditions will continue through the weekend with
lots of sunshine. A storm system will start to impact the
northeast early Monday morning. This system may bring scattered
showers and thunderstorms to the region. High pressure will build
back over the region on Tuesday ending chances for rain.


Near term /through tonight/...
300 am EDT update...
most of the area should remain dry today as a shortwave trough
swings across the northeast. This wave may create showers and an
isolated thunderstorms over the southern Tug Hill plateau. Showers
may develop late this morning and possibly continue into the early
evening. Areas south of the southern Tug Hill plateau, the wave
will create enough lift for a bkn cu field to develop across
central New York. Nepa is expected to be mostly sunny since a drier
airmass will be present over nepa.

The axis of the previously mentioned wave will quickly move through
the area placing US within northwest flow aloft. This will result in
slightly cooler 850mb temps, thus temps this afternoon will be a a
few deg less than yesterday's high. Temps are expected to rise into
the upper 80s to low 90s today. Dew points will also be slightly
lower than yesterday which will make the Summer heat slightly more

Tonight the potent ridge that is currently located over the central
Continental U.S. Creating dangerously hot temperatures will slowly build
eastward into nepa and central New York. This ridge combined with an
area of high pressure will result in a quiet night.


Short term /Sunday through Monday night/...
300 am EDT update...
Sunday afternoon the ridge aloft will be over the northeast and
dominating the weather. The potent ridge will keep Sunday dry with
lots of sunshine. Sunday afternoon the mid- lvls of the atmosphere
will transition to SW flow due to the next storm system moving
into the Great Lakes region. This SW flow will result in strong
warm air advection and 850mb temps rising about 5 deg c. This will cause the
850mb temps quickly rise to 20 deg c. Thus, temps will be similar
to Max temps that occurred yesterday. Most of the area will reach
the low 90s.

Sunday night the atmosphere will fully transition into SW flow aloft
and strong warm air advection will continue through the night. This pattern will
prevent temps falling below the uppr 60s, and most areas will remain
in the low 70s. This flow will not only bring heat, but also bring
moisture back into central New York and northeast Pennsylvania.
Cloud coverage will start to increase late Sunday evening and by
Monday morning mostly cloudy skies will prevail along with dew
points ranging in the upper 60s to low 70s.

A pre-frontal trough will move across the region early Monday
morning. This feature may create showers and thunderstorms over the
region. Activity with this pre-frontal wave may be light. The better
chance for the region to see precipitation will be during the day on
Monday as the kinematics of the system appears to support scattered
showers and thunderstorms over the region. Precipitable water values with this
system is around 1.5 inches, so we may have a few storms that
might produce locally heavy rainfall. What rain does fall with
this system will provide little aid to the current drought. Temps
on tues are expected to range in the low to mid 80s.


Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...
4pm update..
cold front crosses the area Monday evening with any showers/storms
with this feature diminishing by the overnight. Beyond this time
high pressure builds in through midweek bringing mainly sunny
skies and seasonally warm temperatures but comfortable levels of
humidity. The next frontal system brings a chance of
showers/storms by the Thursday/Friday time frame. We utilized the
superblend for this forecast with only very minor tweaks made.


Aviation /12z Saturday through Wednesday/...
VFR conds will cont thru the taf pd. Northwest flow conts on the NE
fringe of the larg rdg. Shrt WV dropping into New England may
generate isltd shwrs and tstms, but with limited cvrg it will not
rch the threshold for inclusion in the tafs attm. Sndg looks too
dry for fog at Elm or any of the vlys tngt. Strong sun with good
mixing will result in gusty winds dvlpg this aftn. Winds will
become lgt again this evening as we lose htg.



Mon/Tue...showers and thunderstorms. Mostly VFR to MVFR.



Bgm watches/warnings/advisories...
New York...none.


near term...kah
short term...kah
long term...pcf

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations