Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
244 PM EDT Sat Jun 23 2018
a slow moving storm will move into southeast Ontario this
weekend. Showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast for
today and Sunday, before a cold front brings drier air into the
region Sunday night and Monday.
Near term /through Sunday night/...
1030 am update...
update to drop chance of showers and thunderstorms now into this
evening. A large area of showers over the Susquehanna region and
Mohawk Valley is moving northeast and should be out of the area
by 1 PM. Upstream only isolated showers. Models show some
showers and a few thunderstorms moving into the far west mid to
late afternoon. This area stays mainly over The Finger lakes.
Forcing and instability are both weak. Skies will stay cloudy
to mostly cloudy. Cool temperatures now will rise this afternoon
as the low level flow shifts from southeast to S. Highs mid to upper
60s far east for Oneida to Sullivan counties and low 70s
a low pressure storm system sliding toward southern Ontario will
extend a frontal boundary across PA, while a southerly flow
imports increasingly humid air into our forecast area. A series
of waves will rotate out of an upper level storm and move
across New York and PA through today, bringing batches of showers and
thunderstorms to our region.
MLCAPE values are progged to increase over western New York and PA to
between 600-1000 j/kg early this afternoon, then advect into
our region (mainly west of I-81). This will increase the
potential for afternoon thunderstorms, some of which are likely
to produce heavy downpours due to precipitable water values close to 1.50
A relative lull in the convection is forecast overnight as
instability decreases and the wave energy moves away from US.
An additional round of showers and thunderstorms is expected on
Sunday as the cold front sweeps toward Lake Ontario. Again,
MLCAPE values are sufficient for supporting convection, and
pwats hold around 1.50 inches. Bulk shear is in the 25-35 knot
range, not especially impressive or indicative of organized
Short term /Monday through Tuesday/...
Period should be dry as a trof and surface front depart to the
east early Monday, and high pressure over the Great Lakes builds
in. There is a small chance that a light shower could pop up
over the Catskills which is under the western edge of the upper
cold pool, but the possibility is below the chance threshold so
will blend with the surrounding offices and keep them out.
Tuesday morning will be quite chilly under Canadian high
pressure and light winds.
Long term /Tuesday night through Friday/...
Upper wave and surface low tracks north of the region Wednesday,
with a trailing cold front well down into the mid Atlantic.
Even the Euro is quite robust with the pops and quantitative precipitation forecast but a bit
slower with the advance of the system. In any event, likely pops
seem reasonable for 12z Wednesday through 12z Thursday, with
lingering chance pops into Thursday afternoon with some
leftover instability in the cool air advection. High pressure at
the surface and aloft slowly builds in through the end of the
period. Northwest flow will continue to keep a chance or slight
chance of showers, especially over the northern zones, before
the ridge caps things for the weekend.
Aviation /19z Saturday through Thursday/...
rain showers are increasing across the region this morning, with
ceiling heights falling to between 1500 and 2500 feet at our
A brief break in the clouds is possible Saturday afternoon as
rain slides northeastward. A round of showers and thunderstorms
is forecast for Saturday evening, with MVFR conditions
prevailing into Sunday morning. Some of the thunderstorms will
include heavy downpours.
Sunday through Sunday night...showers and restrictive
conditions are possible.
Monday and Tuesday...VFR.
Wednesday...restrictions possible in showers and storms.