Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus61 kbgm 220602 
afdbgm

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
102 am EST sun Jan 22 2017

Synopsis...
locally dense fog this morning will rise up and persist as a low
cloud cover this afternoon. A strong storm over the mid-Atlantic
will bring rain and snow to New York and PA Sunday night through Tuesday
morning.

&&

Near term /through tonight/...
fog over New York and PA is forecast to become less dense over the next
few hours, as a wave moving in from the southwest spreads a few
showers into our forecast area and adds a little mixing to the
atmosphere.

Otherwise, low clouds should persist through the next 24 hours
with areas of dense fog during the overnight hours, both this
morning and Sunday night.

Light rain or drizzle will move into northeastern PA late today as
another wave shoots out of the larger storm complex to our
southwest.

Expect another mild afternoon, with temperatures reaching the
upper 40s and lower 50s today.

&&

Short term /Monday through Tuesday/...
a complex coastal system will impact the region Sunday night
through Monday night right into Tuesday. A low pressure system
will slowly move NE from the Kentucky / Tennessee region late
Sunday to a position near the Delmarva late late Monday then NE
off the coast of New England Tuesday

The precipitation Sunday night will be in the form of mostly just
rain as temperatures at the surface and aloft will still be
mostly be above freezing...precipitation won't be too heavy and
will mainly affect areas from the twin tiers south into NE PA as
northern edge of precip will initially tend to erode as it moves
into ridge. Beginning in the late overnight Sunday night, colder
air moving in from the east/NE will begin to change rain over to
sleet and potentially some freezing rain over far eastern zones
through Sullivan north to Delaware and Otsego counties. This will
occur first over the higher terrain as cold layer moving in will
be centered in the 925-850 mb layer.

On Monday, the colder air aloft spreads across the region from
the east/northeast with precipitation also becoming heavier in
intensity. Overall, models are coming into better agreement but
NAM still colder than the GFS in terms of initially bringing in
this colder air - European model (ecmwf) is in between. Thus, overall, followed a
NAM/GFS/ECMWF blend as far as deriving weather grids from model
temperatures aloft. As mentioned above, the wintry mix begins in
eastern areas Sunday night into early Monday - I-81 west should
still be all rain to start the day. Expect rain to mix with sleet
and/or snow over much of I-81 corridor by midday into the
afternoon and encompass most of the region by late Day. Valley
locations, especially in NE PA, will be the last to change over.
While rain/snow/sleet look to be dominant precip types some
freezing rain will be possible...especially in the Poconos and
Catskills.

By Monday night the precipitation will gradually change to mostly snow
at most locations but the far southeast areas but will be becoming
lighter in intensity. Highs in the mid to upper 30s Monday drop to
the low to mid 30s Monday night.

For Tuesday, precipitation tapers to rain/snow showers by
afternoon with temperatures not rising too much...generally
hovering in the mid 30s.

At this time snow accumulations across the northern half of the
forecast area look to generally range from 2-4 inches
with little if any snow across most of northeast pennsyvlania
expect higher terrain where there could be a couple inches. Still
the potential for some areas over central New York to see higher
amounts..potentially to around 6 inches with the best chances
being over higher terrain of Steuben into Yates counties. In
terms of total liquid quantitative precipitation forecast with the system, most models now
forecasting potential for 1 to 1.5 inches of quantitative precipitation forecast with higher
amounts less likely. Thus, Hydro issues dont' appear likely at
this time. Finally, strong east winds will be a concern Monday
into Monday night with the potential for gusts over 40
mph..especially across higher terrain of Poconos and Catskills.
This will have to be closely monitored as it could add to impacts
of any snow/ice accumulation. &&

Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
there will be a brief break late Tuesday into early Wednesday then
by late Wednesday into thursay low pressure will track from the
central Great Lakes northeast into near southern Ontario. This
system will bring the area mixed rain/snow showers Wednesday
through Thursday. Colder air behind this feature combined with an
upper level trof in eastern Canada will bring temperatures back to
more seasonal levels late next week and into the weekend along
with scattered snow showers.

&&

Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
there will be a brief break late Tuesday into early Wednesday then
by late Wednesday into thursay low pressure will track from the
central Great Lakes northeast into near southern Ontario. This
system will bring the area mixed rain/snow showers Wednesday
through Thursday. Colder air behind this feature combined with an
upper level trof in eastern Canada will bring temperatures back to
more seasonal levels late next week and into the weekend along
with scattered snow showers.

&&

Aviation /06z Sunday through Thursday/...
light winds and high humidity levels under a weak ridge will keep
fog and low stratus over the terminals. IFR conditions are likely
this morning at ith, and a virtual lock at bgm, Elm, and avp,
where visibilities will drop to 1/4sm in fog.

Fog will break up by late morning today, but a low stratus deck
will keep ceilings between 700 and 2000 feet.

Fog should return after sunset tonight, but may be short-lived due
to increased mixing ahead of an approaching storm system.



Outlook...

Sunday night, Monday, and into Tuesday...restrictions likely in
rain or a wintry mix.

Wednesday & Thursday...more restrictions possible in rain or snow
showers.

&&

Bgm watches/warnings/advisories...
PA...none.
New York...none.

&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations