Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
643 am EST Wed Dec 7 2016
mixed precip will move out of the region this morning and the
remainder of the day will be Dry. Lake effect snow showers will
develop over the region tomorrow and produce heavy snow showers
over northern Oneida County and possibly over portions of central
New York. Lake effect snows may linger through Saturday afternoon.
Near term /through tonight/...
415 am EST update...
precipitation continues to linger over the region this morning
and is in the form of a wintry mix of rain/sleet/and snow. What is
left is light and is moving east, and for the most part, expect
most of the area to be dry by sunrise. Deep southwest flow aloft
will develop over the region this afternoon as the next storm
system starts to approach the region from the west. This will
result in the 850mb temps decreasing from around -1c to -7 deg c
and by thurs morning 850mb temps will fall to -10 deg c. This will
set up an environment conducive for lake effect snow showers to
While there is deep SW aloft, the mid-lvls will remain fairly dry,
thus the majority of the day be fairly quiet. Low-lvl moisture will
remain plentiful so mostly cloudy skies will prevail through the
day. Temps this afternoon will rise into the uppr 30s to low 40s,
and decrease into the mid 20s overnight.
Short term /Thursday through Friday night/...
430 EST update...
upgraded lake effect snow watch in northern Oneida County to
warning. Lake effect snow watch remains in effect for southern
Oneida, southern Cayuga, Onondaga and Madison counties. Still some
uncertainty with these counties and plenty of time before
significant snows start.
Thursday...through the morning hours deep southwest flow will exist
across the area as an upper level trough approaches. By afternoon
the flow becomes more westerly as cold air advection continues.
Models indicate flow from Lake Erie will produce scattered snow
showers across much of central New York. By late day the flow
becomes favorable for northern Oneida County with deep moisture and
well mixed above 700mb. Temperatures at 850 mb will be around -10c
which is more than enough differential as lake temperatures are
Thursday night...flow remains favorable for northern Oneida County
until around 09z when the secondary trough drops through the region.
Up to this point the moisture depth and instability are really
significant around 700mb, indicating good snow growth potential.
BUFKIT does show some shear within the unstable layer possibly
implying a Broad Lake effect snow band. Total snow accumulations in
northern Oneida County could reach 8 to 15 inches by early Friday
Friday/Friday night...as the secondary trough drops south the low
level flow becomes aligned at roughly 300 degrees which seems to
persist through Friday night. After this boundary passes though the
inversion lowers and moisture depth becomes fairly shallow. The
temperature at 850mb drops to -15c indicating extreme instability on
BUFKIT. Models also suggest a Georgian Bay connection through
Friday. Model quantitative precipitation forecast during lake effect events are always underdone but
the amounts Friday through Friday night are really low. The
combination of lowering inversion, decreasing moisture and lack of
quantitative precipitation forecast from models brings some uncertainty to the forecast and
therefor will continue with watch. Persistent flow and a very
cold airmass are the positives for significant snowfall. Later
shifts may upgrade to warning and advisories may be needed for
Cortland, Chenango and Otsego counties.
Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
415 am EST update...
the extended forecast will be a fairly active period. Saturday will
have lingering lake effect (le) snow showers over central New York and
northeast PA. Le snow showers will wind down Sat evening as high
pressure briefly builds over the region, but quiet weather will not
last long as another system will move across the region Sunday.
Guidance is in fairly good agreement that sun and Mon will have
widespread snow showers across the region. Tuesday and Wednesday le
snow showers will likely develop behind the mentioned system as a
potent uppr lvl low Parks over Quebec. And since the low if forecast
to remain stationary over eastern Canada Thursday, there will be a
chance for snow showers as well on Thursday. Temps will remain
slightly at or below the seasonal average during the extended
Aviation /12z Wednesday through Sunday/...
light showers continue to drift east this morning across the
region. These showers are a mix of rain, snow and sleet. These
showers are expected to end by mid morning. Fuel alternate
ceilings are present this morning with embedded IFR. Expect this
trend to continue for the next few hours before improving to
MVFR. Weak high pressure will build over the area this afternoon
bringing a brief period of dry weather before lake effect (le)
showers start to develop thurs morning. Some of these showers
could produce significant amounts of snow.
Winds will be west/northwest around 5-10 knots through the forecast period.
Thursday...possible restrictions in lower ceilings and scattered
rain/snow showers, especially ksyr and krme.
Friday-Saturday...restrictions likely at ksyr and krme in lake-
effect snow, with possible restrictions in snow showers/flurries
down to kelm, kith, and kbgm. Kavp should be mainly VFR.
Sunday...although residual restrictive conditions are possible at
ksyr and krme, a general improvement to VFR is foreseen at this
New York...Lake effect snow watch from Thursday evening through late
Friday night for nyz017-018-036-037.
Lake effect snow warning from 11 am Thursday to 7 am EST
Friday for nyz009.