Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
309 PM EDT Monday Aug 29 2016
Quiet weather conditions expected early this week with high pressure
in place across the northeast. A cold front will slide through the
region on Wednesday with scattered showers and thunderstorms. A dry
air mass and high pressure will build back in through the latter
half of the week and into the weekend.
Near term /through Tuesday/...
Very quiet weather conditions expected tonight through Tuesday with
a large area of high pressure in place across the region. Main
concerns will be for valley fog tonight and Tuesday morning.
Temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s and lower 80s across
central New York and NE PA this afternoon with very comfortable dew points
in the 50s and lower 60s. Light north/NW winds 5 to 10 mph combined
with a scattered deck of clouds have added to the level of Comfort
across the region as well.
A very dry air mass throughout the depth of the atmosphere will
allow skies to clear off tonight which will combine with calm winds
to bring temperatures down into the lower to mid 50s. A weak
inversion at the surface...slightly enhanced in the valleys with
cold air draining...will lead to valley fog tonight and Tue morning.
Some of the fog may impact higher terrain locations Tue morning as
the fog lifts and mixes out. Otherwise...mostly sunny to partly
cloudy skies will be expected Tuesday with temperatures into the
upper 70s and lower to mid 80s once again. Humidity will remain low
with light winds.
Short term /Tuesday night through Thursday/...
230 PM Monday update...
Tuesday night clouds move in slowly starting in the northwest.
Temperatures drop into the 50s to low 60s with light winds and
partly cloudy skies in the evening. A weak cold front drops
southeast through the area on Wednesday and Wednesday evening.
Ahead of the front weak surface instability and moister air. Bulk
shear increases to 35 kts. Showers and thunderstorms will form in
upstate New York and drop southeast ahead of the front. With weak
forcing and lift thunderstorms are not expected to be severe.
Thunderstorms will again have heavy rain with pwats over 1.5". The
colder air aloft comes in with the deepening upper level trough
Wednesday night and Thursday.
After highs Wednesday in the 80s, high temperatures Thursday upper
60s to mid 70s far south. 850mb temps fall to +8c which should
generate additional moisture from the Warm Lake Ontario. A few
showers possible with the upper level trough dropping into the
Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
230 PM Monday update...
Fairly high confidence continues this period, as medium range
guidance remains reasonably consistent, and in good agreement
overall. Little change to previous.
Thursday night still a northwest to north low level flow of cold
air keeping some clouds mainly in central New York under an upper level
trough. This trough shifts east and the winds weaken as a large
area of high pressure moves in from the western Great Lakes. The
high remains in control late Friday through Sunday as upper level
heights build. Temperatures warm from near normal Friday to be
back above normal Sunday and Monday. Monday highs well into the
80s. This upper level ridge and surface high will keep the area
dry and tropical moisture to the southeast along and off the East
Aviation /19z Monday through Saturday/...
VFR conditions with scattered-broken 040-050 clouds around this afternoon
and gusty 10-15 kt north/northwest winds. Skies will scatter out and
eventually become clear this evening as high pressure builds in
from the west.
Late tonight into early Tuesday, valley fog is expected to form,
primarily impacting kelm, with IFR/LIFR restrictions. May see some
of the fog touch krme, kith, kbgm and kavp with MVFR vsbys for a
brief period Tue morning...so added tempo groups to the forecast
for these locations.
Winds will remain light and variable with high clouds starting to
stream in aloft late Tue morning.
Wednesday...brief restrictions from showers/storms are possible,
but mainly VFR.