Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbgm 250006
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
806 PM EDT sun Sep 24 2017
strong high pressure will remain over the region through early this
week with mostly sunny days and very warm temperatures. A cold front
will usher in a more seasonal airmass, along with a few rain
showers, later this week.
Near term /through Monday night/...
800 PM EDT update...
no significant changes were made to the previous forecast as
high pressure controls the weather. Well above normal
temperature continue to prevail across the region. Adjusted
temps to match current trends, but previous forecast is in
great shape. For more information on the previous forecast,
please read the previous forecast discussion below.
Previous forecast discussion...
a strong ridge of high pressure both at the surface and aloft
sits over the area bringing sunshine along with very warm and
increasingly muggy conditions. 500 mb heights are near 590dm
with 850 mb temps near 19 c leading to highs this afternoon
topping out in the mid to high 80s for most places...even near
Heading into tonight, not much change. The ridge persists and the trend
will continue to be for subtle low level moisture advection
into the region. This will once again set up good conditions for
valley fog to form overnight. The one limiting factor will be
boundary layer winds from the NE but don't think this will be
enough to inhibit fog in at least the valleys. Overnight lows
will be generally in the low 60s.
Monday...another very warm to hot day on tap with temperatures for
most places at least as warm as Sunday and maybe even a degree
or so warmer with highs generally in the 85 to 90 degree range
under continuing sunshine. Also, the dew points will continue to
creep up so it will feel quite humid.
Monday night, the ridge begins to weaken just slightly with some
high clouds moving in on the far north/west periphery of Maria's cloud
shield. Otherwise another mild and muggy night with more valley
fog. Lows mainly in the low to mid 60s.
Short term /Tuesday through Wednesday/...
Tuesday/Tuesday night...high pressure aloft and at the surface
remains over the northeast during this period. Dry weather with
warm temperatures continue with highs on Tuesday in the middle
to upper 80s. Readings will be close to record highs.
Wednesday...upper level trough moves into the western Great
Lakes as the associated surface cold front reaches the eastern
Great Lakes by late day. At the same time Hurricane Maria is
situated well off the outer bands of North Carolina. Will
continue to advertise just slight chance pops in the far
southeast forecast area during the morning which would be
associated with moisture from Maria. By afternoon scattered
showers are possible with isolated thunderstorms as the surface
cold front approaches the region. Instability is best in the
western and central forecast area so will limit the mention of
thunder here. Temperatures will remain well above normal with
highs in the lower to middle 80s.
Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
medium range models are in fair agreement during the beginning
part of the extended then diverge by next weekend. Wednesday
night, surface cold front moves through the region bringing a
chance for showers. This boundary will also move Maria well out
to sea. Thursday and Thursday night, high pressure briefly
builds over the region with dry conditions expected. Friday
through Sunday, an upper level trough and associated surface low
will slowly track from the central Great Lakes into the
northeast. The GFS is more progressive with this system and
would indicate a fairly dry pleasant weekend. The ECMWF, is
much slower and deeper with the upper level system and therefore
wetter. Not a lot of confidence in the weekend forecast but for
now will advertise slight chance pops for showers through the
Temperatures on Wednesday will be around 20 degrees above
normal then after frontal passage readings will drop back to
more seasonal levels.
Aviation /00z Monday through Friday/...
VFR conditions through this evening before low clouds and fog
develop again overnight...likely beginning between 6-8z for kelm
where visbys will likely reach near Airport mins at times by
sunrise. Otherwise MVFR vsbys at krme, kith and kbgm. Kavp and
ksyr are expected to stay VFR. Fog/mist Burns off by 14z Monday.
Winds will remain light and variable with speeds less than 10
knots through Monday.
Monday ngt and Tuesday...VFR except for fog possible late
night/early morning, especially at kelm but for other terminals
as well at times.
Wednesday - Friday...mainly VFR.