Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
404 am EDT Sat Oct 1 2016
unsettled weather continues today as the slow moving storm system
continues to dominate the weather. This system will keep a chance
for showers in the forecast through Monday evening. Drier
conditions are expected to return early next week.
Near term /through Sunday/...
400 am EDT update...
central New York and northeast PA is quiet this morning with mostly
cloudy skies as the uppr lvl low continues to control the weather.
Showers from yesterday have moved out of the area and spotty areas
of fog linger in it's wake. The combination of strong warm air advection and
mostly cloudy skies overnight have kept the temps in the low to
mid 50s. Do not expect temps to fall more than a degree of two
through sunrise, thus temps will remain in the low to mid 50s
across much of the area.
The next round of showers are expected to move into central New York and
northeast PA around 12z. Showers are expected to slowly lift north
and eastward through the afternoon. There may be a few rumbles of
thunder this afternoon, but the probability is so low, decided to
keep out of forecast. Temps this afternoon are expected to rise into
the low to mid 60s. The chance for showers over the area decreases
quickly after midnight and we may see another lull in activity
around 12z Sun morning.
The upper low will finally start to shift to the NE on Sunday, but
will still create an environment conducive for showers again on
Sunday. Thus, there will be a chance for showers all day. Temps Sun
morning will also be fairly warm again, remaining in the low to mid
50s. Temps are expected to rise into the uppr 60s to low 70s Sun
Short term /Sunday night through Monday night/...
345 am update...
models are in good agreement now that the upper level low,
currently dominating our weather, will have a waning influence on
the region during the short term period.
A digging northern stream trough will drop over northeastern
Canada Sunday night through Monday. It will approach close enough
to the weakening upper level low to finally dislodge it and shift
it from the central Great Lakes, through our region, and then
offshore southern New England Monday night. There will a general
chance of showers Sunday night through Monday, as the upper low
passes directly overhead. A relative lull may occur late Sunday
night into early Monday morning, but combination of diurnal
heating and cold air aloft should yield enough instability for a
final round of at least scattered showers. Highs Monday will
generally be mid to upper 60s.
With the good model agreement on the upper low /opening into a
wave/ shifting to our east Monday night, we should have an end to
the showers, with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...
345 am Saturday update...
forecast adjusted towards blend of latest models. Not much change
from what is already discussed below. Mainly dry, though a trough
may reach the area towards Friday for a small chance of showers.
Still plenty of model spread for the track of Hurricane Matthew,
and that will continue to be the case for awhile as any East Coast
ramifications are still many days away. Of the 00z GFS ensemble
set, the operational run is among the most western solutions
while many of the other members are well offshore along with the
00z European model (ecmwf) and Gem models.
the early to middle portions of next week continue to look
generally dry, as a progressive upper ridge translates across the
eastern states. Temperatures still look to average above normal,
with highs in the 60s-lower 70s.
At this early Vantage Point, our global models keep Hurricane
Matthew no closer than the southeastern U.S. Coastal waters
through the middle of next week (no impact through this period on
central New York/northeastern pa), with plenty of model
spread/uncertainty on the exact positioning this far out in time.
It will likely take a number of days before we zero in on a higher
confidence track forecast.
Aviation /08z Saturday through Wednesday/...
a few lingering showers are present this morning, but for the most
part, the area should remain dry. Copious amounts of low lvl
moisture is present this morning and will prevail through the
forecast, thus expect mostly cloudy to overcast skies through
period. MVFR ceilings should dominate the region expect for kelm,
kbgm and kavp where ceilings are expected to fall to IFR. Flight
conditions will slowly improve tomorrow afternoon accompanied
with a round of showers. Expect a similar flight conditions
tomorrow evening to what is currently present.
Winds will remain easterly around 5 to 12 knots through the
Saturday night-Sunday...occasional restrictions possible from
lower ceilings and showers.
Monday-Wednesday...mostly VFR. Early morning fog possible at