Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
742 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016
a chilly, unsettled week is ahead. A Few Lake enhanced rain or
snow showers will continue tonight and Tuesday, before an Ohio
Valley storm system spreads a steadier rain into the region late
Wednesday into Thursday.
Near term /through Tuesday/...
240 PM update...
a chilly Canadian flow (-5c to -6c 850mb) over the lakes will
persist through Tuesday. Lake-enhanced shower activity will remain
scattered downwind of the lakes, with the rain showers mixing with
and changing over to snow showers overnight, as temperatures dip
into the lower 30s.
1130 am update...
light, widely scattered lake-enhanced rain showers will continue
from The Finger lakes southeast into the southern tier and
northern Pennsylvania. This activity will slowly shift northward
by a few counties this afternoon.
We increased the maximum temperatures slightly, as a few breaks of
sun allowed temperatures to climb up to the projected maximums
before noon. We are likely at or near our highs right now.
Short term /Tuesday night through Thursday night/...
a surface cyclone will track from the Midwest into the Ohio
Valley, spreading precipiation into the region Wednesday night and
continuing into Thursday.
Precipitation type will be largely a function of elevation and
time of day, with the best chance for snow showers along the
hills and over the northern forecast area early Thursday morning.
Light accumulations are expected.
Total quantitative precipitation forecast for this event is forecast to range from 0.50 to 0.70
Long term /Friday through Monday/...
a sharp northeastern trof will begin to swing out to sea Friday
night ahead of an approaching Great Lakes storm. Additional rain
showers are forecast through the long term period, with the
possibility for wet snow overnight, especially on the higher
Though a mean trof pattern is expected to hold through Sunday, the
flow is less amplified heading into next week.
Aviation /00z Tuesday through Saturday/...
a cold northwest flow of air will continue throug the taf period.
Overall this will produce mainly scattered to at times broken VFR cigs
around 5,000 feet. At kith and kbgm a return to MVFR is expected
after 02z and continue through daybreak Tuesday, thanks to more
persistant lake effect showers. It will become cold enough after
04z that snow may mix in with the rain, which may lower visibilities
toward IFR briefly. VFR returns by mid morning Tuesday.
Northwest winds with gusts up to 20 kts the next hour or so, then
northwest at 10 kts overnight. Northwest winds around 10 kts
Tuesday with gusts to near 20 kts again.
Wednesday night/early Thursday in light snow otherwise on and off MVFR
possible in rain showers.